Ipsos: 54-46 to Labor

The final Ipsos poll for the year fails to replicate its unusually strong result for the Coalition last time.

Courtesy of the Fairfax papers, one last Ipsos poll for the year, showing Labor with a two-party lead of 54-46, out from an anomalous 52-48 a month ago. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down one to 36%, Labor up three to 37% and the Greens are steady on 13%. The leaders’ ratings are little changed: Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 47% and up three on disapproval to 39%; Bill Shorten is up one on approval to 41% and down three on disapproval to 50%; and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 47-35 to 46-37. The poll also finds opinion evenly divided on Labor’s negative gearing policy, with 43% in favour and 44% opposed, while 48% oppose its related cut in the capital gains tax discount, with 43% in support. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

786 comments on “Ipsos: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Jericho hits the nail on the head: ‘The budget might be back in surplus but this seems incredibly divorced from the reality of people’s lives.’

    IMO the more the Far Right card carrying hacks on $350,000 a year carry on about ‘a beautiful set of numbers’ the greater resentment they are going to generate.

    https://www.theguardian.com/au

  2. Never one to wish ill health but it would be our to our advantage to have successive deliveries as follows:

    (a) molly grubber to knock back Pujara’s middle peg; and
    (b) a rearer that fractures many of Kohli’s fingers.

  3. To show what a ‘one big happy family’ they are and to increase the odds KR will pack in his white ant farm

    What about his dry rot fungus cultures?

  4. shellbell @ #602 Monday, December 17th, 2018 – 5:31 pm

    Never one to wish ill health but it would be our to our advantage to have successive deliveries as follows:

    (a) molly grubber to knock back Pujara’s middle peg; and
    (b) a rearer that fractures many of Kohli’s fingers.

    It’s only a Game and not a matter of life or death.

    It’s far more important than that!

  5. Another sex scandal, this one alleged

    Surely there’d have been no resignation if the sex scandal was only alleged.

    Broad’s side of politics is quite accomplished at denying even the most obviously credible of allegations and only stepping down when there’s ironclad proof that the allegations are true. And sometimes not even then.

  6. Is there any other organisation that would actually REWARD such extreme levels of destructive treachery… ?
    It’s twilight zone stuff !!

  7. shellbell

    ‘(a) molly grubber to break both of Pujara’s big toes; and,
    (b) a rearer that fractures many of Kohli’s fingers on both hands.

    Fixed?

  8. Tony Wright really sticks it into the Muppets

    “Quote from the late Billy Graham,” Broad had tweeted, citing a famed moraliser. “When wealth is lost, nothing is lost; when health is lost, something is lost, when character is lost, everything is lost…Telling words for the leadership of the National Party.”
    No one could possibly comment.”

  9. AFP: No offences under Australian law identified in Broad referral
    The Australian Federal Police have released this on the Andrew Broad referral:

    The AFP can confirm it received a referral from Andrew Broad MP on 8 November 2018, and assessed the information provided.

    · No applicable offences under Australian law have been identified.

    · No further comment will be made at this time.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2018/dec/17/labor-national-conference-day-two-politics-live

  10. So the AFP have said ‘nothing to see here’, which is kind of embarrassing for Broad and McCormack, and they, presumably, have no excuse now to duck questions about this.

    The AFP can confirm it received a referral from Andrew Broad MP on 8 November 2018, and assessed the information provided.

    · No applicable offences under Australian law have been identified.

    · No further comment will be made at this time.

    (From the Guardian live blog at 17:32)

    It also raises the question of what it was that Broad asked the AFP to look into (disclosing personal text messages?); and certainly that the AFP weren’t asked to look into possibly inappropriate use of entitlements by Broad.

    What a clown show.

  11. Someone called Michelle Levine (Morgan polling?) on ABC 24 basically saying ‘nothing to see here folk, move along’ re: ‘Sugar-Daddygate’

  12. SK

    They did abandon a West Indies-England Test in Jamaica in 1998 with England 3/17 after 10.1 overs and the physio having gone onto the ground six times to tend to injuries!

    https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/cricket-england-17-3-pitch-stops-play-match-abandoned-1141794.html

    I liked Alec Stewart’s deadpan response to a reporter

    Speaking afterwards, Alec Stewart, one who had survived the ordeal with his wicket intact, said he had played on flatter pitches

  13. shellbell

    Really the worst thing for a batsman is a short of length ball that rears up as expected. Then the next ball of about the same length hits a crack or something and keeps absurdly low and you are out bowled or LBW as it is all but impossible to adjust to that much change.

  14. Oddly enough the pitch is a bit like the one which Phi Hughes scored twin centuries on in 2009 in SA and in whchh Johnson broke Kallis’s hand or fingers and hit heaps of others

  15. ‘Zoidlord says:
    Monday, December 17, 2018 at 3:48 pm

    Alex Turnbull
    ‏ @alexbhturnbull
    3m3 minutes ago

    One thing a good friend brought up about Andrew Broad – if you are trying to fool around in HK as a government official and don’t think you are being recorded / compromised you need to get a grip on the reality of the job. #opsecfail’

    Bang!

  16. ‘Ven says:
    Monday, December 17, 2018 at 5:51 pm

    Rex@5:34pm
    What are you trying to convey?’

    That he can still suck in the unwary.

  17. BILL SHORTEN – SPEECH – OPENING ADDRESS 48TH NATIONAL CONFERENCE OF THE AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY – ADELAIDE – SUNDAY, 16 DECEMBER 2018. COMPLETE WITH INNER MONOLOGUE

    That’s how Gough inspired us.(old commie)
    It’s what Bob taught us. (My vision of what a man really is)
    It’s Paul’s big picture. (I’m glad I didn’t have to knife this rattlesnake)
    Kevin’s victory. (yep. knifed him)
    Julia’s determination. (knifed again)
    It’s Curtin’s ‘task ahead’, it’s Chifley’s light on the hill. (don’t know much about these 2 but I would have knifed them for sure)

  18. Could it be that some in the press gallery now realize that giving away company tax receipts as the result of a beautiful set of figures is not sustainable?

  19. Oddly enough the pitch is a bit like the one which Phi Hughes scored twin centuries on in 2009 in SA and in whchh Johnson broke Kallis’s hand or fingers and hit heaps of others

    I think it was Kallis with a blow to the head and Smith on the hand. Johnson also hospitalised Smith in Sydney later that year IIRC.

  20. John Reidy

    Earlier I posted a pdf from the OECD looking at tax takes among their members. A note they made stood out for me. Compared to the rest tax from companies is SFA and we rely far more than the great majority on wage/salary. So our companies are twice over bludgers, not paying much tax and not paying workers.

  21. poroti:

    Anyone know why there is this difference in Tax to GDP ?

    Likely the OECD is counting State Government taxes/duties as well in order to compare like-for-like when comparing across countries, some of which are federations and others aren’t.

  22. @rwillingham
    Following Following @rwillingham
    More
    Vic Labor will be lodging an appeal to the court of disputed returns asking for a recount in Ripon @abcmelbourne #springst

  23. I guess we know now why Smugmo did not want retrospective powers available to any anti corruption commission in light of “Mategate”.

  24. BW
    I saw an article where an unnamed Cabinet minister recently was wondering how much the voters worried about getting the budget into surplus. He asked his staffers to count all the phone calls, emails and letters in the last few months on the topic. They came back and their answer was zero!

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