BludgerTrack: 54.7-45.3 to Labor

After a dire result from Newspoll, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate is hardly better for the Coalition than it was immediately after the leadership coup.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with this week’s Newspoll and the YouGov Galaxy poll from Queensland, the effect of which is to add another half a point to Labor’s two-party preferred vote for a gain of only one seat, that being in Western Australia. The Queensland poll, which was a relatively good result for the Coalition, negated the effect of Newspoll in that state. Newspoll’s leadership ratings resulted in little change in the trend readings – no doubt it would have been a different story if I had a net satisfaction series for Scott Morrison, who did particularly badly in Newspoll, but there is still too little data for that to be feasible.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

995 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.7-45.3 to Labor”

  1. Good Morning

    Good discussion on the UBI. It was worth lurking and letting some others do the arguing 🙂

    Minority government is wonderful. Already the agenda is being reset. Bragging rights will go to a lot of politicians with more credibility than otherwise. Labor has good leverage in this space. Labor unlike the LNP can and will negotiate with other parties for successful good policy outcomes.

    Win win as the LNP suddenly finds the game changed while they are the government and most likely to be first under the microscope. 🙂

    A federal anti-corruption commission now appears to be a live option, thanks to the growing power of the cross bench in the House of Representatives, with legislation to establish a body that would investigate corruption likely to be introduced into Parliament before Christmas.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-14/federal-anti-corruption-commission-might-become-reality/10498042?section=politics

  2. What a lot of rot. Dogs enjoy ‘working’ with their human.

    Good Morning Britain
    @GMB

    Is it time to ban working animals?
    An animal welfare campaigner says it’s time to stop using guide dogs as they don’t agree to do the work – and using them is unethical. She’d like to see alternatives introduced.

  3. Asked whether his review of the policy on Israel would be done by Christmas, Mr Morrison said: “That’s our intention.”

    Clearly they are considering the Bethlehem option.

  4. One of the reasons I posted that the LNP are not like Labor able to negotiate good policy outcomes is shown by that Jerusalem Embassy stick of Morrison.

    Compromise is not a word he is into. Its crash through. Damn the National Interest.

  5. What the chorus bagging Scotty out about his Jerusalem embassy fiasco aren’t factoring in yet, is the embarrassment (and possible consequences?) that Australia faces from Trump and Bibi after appearing to back them.

  6. Observer: your posts seem to be neglecting the fact that stock exchanges around the world are down this week, not just the ASX. And this is only a week after they were rocketing up like mad.

    Most of the recent volatility seems to me to be driven by the news cycle: Trump tweets something about China and down the markets go. The Repugs hang onto their Senate majority and up they rocket. Overnight, news of the Brexit deal sent them plunging down again.

    The short-term investors seem very jittery at the moment, moving large amounts of money in and out every day. But what are the institutional investors doing/thinking? It isn’t clear.

    What I’m really trying to say is that I don’t think short-term movements on the ASX or overseas indexes tell you very much at all about economic trends. The GFC was an exception, when most financial institutions and many other businesses could quite clearly be seen by every investor to have lost a large amount of value. Maybe this is happening at the moment too but, if it is, that’s largely because of the likely impact of Brexit and an emerging downturn in the Chinese economy, not helped by Trump’s sabre-rattling re tariffs. But very little, if at all, to do with the Australian Government’s economic policies.

  7. sprocket

    This is one of the better contributions on twitter regarding the Embassy

    @Jim_Pembroke tweeted

    In Breakng News:
    PM Scott Morrison says he will move the embassy to a small stable in Bethlehem this Christmas.
    Where Nats Senator Barry O’Sullivan will give birth to her first child.
    #CrazyCoalition #auspol
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/14/scott-morrison-tells-joko-widodo-australia-will-decide-on-embassy-move-by-christmas

  8. Nobody wants to comment about Cate Faehrmann’s article in the SMH this morning.?

    I have no idea whether or not what she says is true, but she doesn’t pull any punches: she appears to be claiming that it’s all about factional politics and nothing else.

  9. James Elton-Pym
    ‏@JamesEltonPym

    Nationals senator Barry O’Sullivan tells the #Senate tofu is made from “dried grass” and the Greens won’t be happy until we’re all sucking on it.

    (soybean farmers may find this surprising)

    So will breadmakers?

  10. Boerwar

    Just as we’re beginning to respect their abilities and value the different ways we can work with animals to our mutual benefit. Such sentimentality is stupid. 🙁

  11. Foreign investors are selling discounted apartments in iconic Melbourne high-rise developments like Australia 108, Aurora and Premier Tower on classified websites like Gumtree before settlement as they battle to secure bank funding.

    Other developments being sold on the cheap include Far East Consortium’s multi-tower West Side Place, which will include a new Ritz-Carlton hotel.

    The Gumtree ad, written entirely in Mandarin, says the first offerings in the development had been “robbed hot” and urges buyers not to miss out on the “Melbourne King”.

    Mortgage broker Paul Williams from Mortgage Choice South Melbourne said an increasing number of local real estate agents were contacting his office to find solutions for people who are yet to secure finance.

    “We are assisting overseas-based buyers (expats and non-expats) who are currently unable to make settlements for high-density properties because they may have purchased a couple of years ago and had pre-approval prior to changes in lender policy such as tougher assessment criteria on foreign income combined with tighter LVR restrictions,” Mr Williams said.

  12. lizzie @ #553 Thursday, November 15th, 2018 – 8:58 am

    What a lot of rot. Dogs enjoy ‘working’ with their human.

    Good Morning Britain
    @GMB

    Is it time to ban working animals?
    An animal welfare campaigner says it’s time to stop using guide dogs as they don’t agree to do the work – and using them is unethical. She’d like to see alternatives introduced.

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    This is crazy stuff.

    Dogs love to be worked, and worked hard.

    When we first moved into our new house in Armidale, we made the mistake of accepting a very young dog, but from working sheep dog stock, as a pet, when we had half a dozen sheep.

    After six weeks we had to find him a ‘proper’ home on a working sheep station – our poor sheep could never get a bite to eat, the dog was forever rounding them up and moving them to another part of our small property. Couldn’t stop him, he loved doing it. He was a lot happier in his new home, where he was expected to round up sheep, put them through the yards and so on.

    I remember as a kid taking my ‘bitser’ dog down to the local shops at the foot of the hill, riding my scooter and taking the dog chain with me. On the way home I used to tie the chain to the scooter, and the dog would really put his back into it, dragging me and the scooter back up the hill at a great rate of knots. He loved those trips.

  13. The woman problem for conservative politics is catching. Why women largely do not wish to be associated with Trump’s Republican party is no surprise.

    If this was supposed to be the year of the woman, it has been the year only of Democratic women. The blue wave washed away a significant number of strong female candidates on the GOP side — both incumbents and newcomers — likely leaving just 12, down from 23. (Though three races were still pending on Tuesday, Republicans had little hope their candidates would win in two of them.)

    According to Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman, of the projected 31 members of the rising Republican freshman class, only one is a woman, compared with the Democrats’ projected freshman class of 61, of which 35 are women. Which means the Republican House just became a lot more of what it didn’t need to be — more male.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-republican-partys-woman-problem/2018/11/13/f76bc38c-e798-11e8-b8dc-66cca409c180_story.html?utm_term=.838f02ae1e9d

  14. Guide Dogs being cruelly oppressed??

    These people are idiots and have never had anything to do with working dogs.

    My experience is that people who ACTUALLY work with dogs respect them and treat them well, but as dogs, not dog shaped people. And the dogs are happy. I reckon most working dogs get treated better and have more interesting lives than dogs kept as pets.

  15. Interesting article

    I am not in favour of Clinton running for the reasons outlined in the first paragraph. However she should not be stopped from running and failing if thats her desire in a primary contest. If she succeeds then maybe she could win against Trump.

    I personally still see her as a bad candidate with a lot of baggage. This article does point out a difference however. Here in Australia we have the example of Howard with the Lazarus label.

    https://meanjin.com.au/blog/if-hillary-wants-to-run-let-her-bloody-well-run/

  16. A lot of animals have a symbiotic relationship with humans, especially pack animals that want purpose within their own pack. The fact that humans are the alphas doesn’t appear to bother them … so long as they have their place within the pack (and a purpose that serves the pack, and most especially the alpha).

  17. More of the same from the Republicans with the incoming Republican leader in the House. Another who won’t hold the president to account, and will simply shield him from much-needed investigation efforts on many fronts.

    House Republicans elected Representative Kevin McCarthy of California to be their leader on Wednesday, embracing continuity of leadership despite steep losses in last week’s midterm elections that cost the party a majority for the first time in eight years.

    Mr. McCarthy, the current majority leader and No. 2 Republican in the chamber, will replace Speaker Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin, who is retiring at the end of the year. He is tasked in the months ahead with charting the party’s path back to the majority in 2020. And more immediately, he will oversee Republicans’ efforts to protect President Trump from the expected onslaught of oversight, investigations and even a potential impeachment by newly empowered House Democrats.

    In remarks after the secret-ballot vote, Mr. McCarthy, 53, sought to project Republican unity, pledged to “win back the suburban areas” that helped cost the party the majority, and said he would be willing to work with Democrats — up to a point.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/14/us/politics/house-republican-leaders-kevin-mccarthy.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

  18. From David Crowe in the SMH…

    Mr Morrison has emphasised that he is only considering the options and has made no hard decisions, but the announcement sparked claims he was attempting to gain favour with Jewish voters in the week before the Wentworth byelection on October 20.

    Wentworth is long gone, yet the Jerusalem policy remains. And anyway, it wasn’t even popular in Wentworth. Nor is the policy popular in the polls.

    Other Wentworth brainfarts – remember bringing the Nauru kids back, and the New Zealand Solution? – have gone by the way. But Jerusalem persists, 5% alive, still not dead. It’s the zombie policy that will not die.

    Time to call it. Morrison is holding onto this unpopular policy for more reasons than stubbornness, and more reasons than just trying to please Trump or the evanescent Jewish lobby.

    ScoMo is looking to Happy Clapper superstardom. The books of the Bible as yet unwritten have naming rights up for grabs. Anyone for “The Book Of Morrison”?

    Who cares about Newspoll and all those other Earthly inconveniences, when there’s a seat on the podium in the offing, at the right hand of The Father?

  19. I wish I could post a very happy photo of my hearing assistance dog. Unfortunately Telstra Platinium has ruined the connection for my laptop and I can’t see how to post via my mobile.
    The dog is a rescue who might not be alive now without the hearing dog program

  20. Very smart of Mr Shorten to go on Joy FM today.

    Thats exactly the serious outreach to the LGBTI community Labor needs to do. Not pretend the community doesn’t exist by not engaging with its media outlets to tell Labor’s message.

    A good signal that labor is indeed serous about equality. One that the wider electorate will appreciate too.

    The wider electorate will understand that makes Labor authentic on equality.

  21. BB

    I would like to think your explanation of Mr Morrison is wrong. I believe however you are on the money here. It makes sense of the otherwise insane.

  22. The Justice Department pushed back on Wednesday against accusations that President Trump’s appointment of Matthew G. Whitaker as acting attorney general was illegal, arguing that it complied with both federal statutes and the Constitution — and that it fit within a history of similar designations dating back to the earliest days of the country.

    The Trump administration made its case in a 20-page memorandum by Steven E. Engel, the head of the department’s Office of Legal Counsel. It came a day after the State of Maryland asked a Federal District Court judge to issue an injunction declaring that when Mr. Trump ousted former Attorney General Jeff Sessions, the role of acting head of the department passed instead to the deputy attorney general, Rod J. Rosenstein, as a matter of law.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/14/us/politics/matthew-whitaker-justice-dept-trump.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

  23. Guytaur, he’s running out of excuses for keeping the policy ticking over.

    The Indons disaporove. The party disapproves. The Public Pervice are shaking their heads. The comnentators hate it. The voters are against it. It isn’t even a big deal to the Australian Jews. There’s only Trump, Guatemala and maybe Brazil in favour.

    And of course the various Happy Clapper congregations.

    Morrison is a Happy Clapper. His eternal salvation is assured if he can swing this one.

    Join the dots.

  24. meher baba says:
    Thursday, November 15, 2018 at 9:11 am

    Most of the recent volatility seems to me to be…. very little, if at all, to do with the Australian Government’s economic policies.

    The continual pressure to run the Commonwealth budget into surplus at a time when the private sector is also trying to increase its savings rate is having a repressive effect on demand, employment, profits and investment in the domestic sector. The Commonwealth should be running a deficit, targeting a higher level of aggregate demand and employment. This would be a rational Keynesian position. We have the wrong fiscal settings given the stage of the business cycle.

  25. “Re the embassy, I suspect they want to (as our cliche riddled political journalists would say) “quietly” back down at an opportune time”

    5:00PM on Christmas Eve.

  26. That woman complaining about the working dogs is probably a follower of PETA. That lot are nucking futs. They kill perfectly healthy pets because they believe pets are slaves and it is better they be euthanized than put into good homes.

    PETA is the radical nutjob of the animal welfare world.

  27. Kristina Keneally

    19m19 minutes ago

    Since the Trump administration introduced corporate tax cuts in the USA, the 1000 largest public companies have actually REDUCED employment.
    This is the tax cut @ScottMorrisonMP & @MathiasCormann & the @BCAcomau wanted Australia to imitate #JobsandGrowth #Nope


  28. John Reidy says:
    Thursday, November 15, 2018 at 9:03 am
    Asked whether his review of the policy on Israel would be done by Christmas, Mr Morrison said: “That’s our intention.”

    Clearly they are considering the Bethlehem option.

    Or Take the trash out option between Christmas & New Year.

  29. Roger, you are assuming Morrison is conducting this policy rationally.

    Unless and until he is convinced that he is doing more harm than good to the spiritual (as opposed to the temporal) cause, he’ll try to push it through.

    Nothing compares to Eternal Salvation as a motivation. And these people take their religion seriously.

  30. Not just a blue wave, but a blue storm surge!

    One week ago, three distinct but overlapping currents combined to shift tidal forces in America’s midterm elections — and smash the Republican Party’s congressional fortress.

    Those currents were demographic change, Democratic mobilization and disaffection with President Donald Trump. As is clearer now than on election night, they produced a blue wave that has fundamentally altered the political calculus of the capital.

    The demographic changes follow long-established trends. Year by year, the share of whites in the population shrinks while the share of Latinos, blacks and Asian-Americans swells.

    Educational attainment keeps rising, especially among women. Declining marriage rates leave a larger proportion of Americans living as single adults. The rural population declines, while urban and suburban areas grow.

    All those demographic trends expand the pool of Democratic-leaning voters. But they’ve been offset in recent midterm elections by low rates of voting among specific Democratic constituencies, most notably young voters and Latinos.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/13/here-are-the-three-main-factors-that-drove-the-democrats-blue-wave.html

  31. BB

    The reason I would like to believe that Morrison is not making his decision based on his religious belief is that I hoped we were past the days of burning people at the stake for having a different view.

    That was done by perfectly sane people arguing over scripture.

    Ignoring that moving the Embassy will result in people killing other people is on that same level of belief trumping fact.

  32. Bushfire Bill @ #583 Thursday, November 15th, 2018 – 10:05 am

    Roger, you are assuming Morrison is conducting this policy rationally.

    Unless and until he is convinced that he is doing more harm than good to the spiritual (as opposed to the temporal) cause, he’ll try to push it through.

    Nothing compares to Eternal Salvation as a motivation. And these people take their religion seriously.

    If you seriously believe that Morrison is genuinely influenced by religion, you are seriously naive.

    To somebody like Morrison, being seen to be religious is only a vote winner.

  33. Morrison has an ace up his sleeve on the Jerusalem Gambit: no more changes of PM will be tolerated by the voters before the election.

    Even if he resigned it would be curtains for the LNP. If he was turned out over a stupid matter of policy (or perhaps a matter of stupid policy), that would be even worse. FOUR PMs in one 3 year term would be something that even the most blinded right winger would have to notice.

    What if Morrison laid his job on the line over Jerusalem? Might it suddenly not look like such a radical change of course after all?

  34. Confessions, I think it’s pretty clear the Trump is accentuating the Democratic revival. Republican-leaning voters now comprise an even smaller minority of the population than in the past. As electoral reforms are enacted and voting rates in Democratic areas are lifted, Democratic electoral performance should also improve.

    Trump is now in the difficult position – a position of his own making – that when he campaigns to his own base, he also unavoidably campaigns against himself among the US majority. Trump and his clones in the Republican Party face a ruin of generational significance.

  35. Henry

    I am glad Foley is gone for political reasons with an election coming. However the process was unfair to both him and the alleged victim. Mostly to the alleged victim.

    No matter what you think of Foley that fact we have this in the public realm against the wishes of both the alleged perp and victim is disgraceful. The LNP have a lot to answer for and should be paying a big price for that.

    Thats worse than the Greens now. Now the Greens are doing something. Yes after being dragged kicking and screaming into it.

    The LNP however used rumour to attack a political opponent without regard to any damage to people’s lives. Sounds very familiar to me.

    I agree with you about Cate Faehrmann in that if you uphold a principle it has to apply to all. So if you are correct that it is indeed hypocrisy

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