BludgerTrack: 54.7-45.3 to Labor

After a dire result from Newspoll, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate is hardly better for the Coalition than it was immediately after the leadership coup.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with this week’s Newspoll and the YouGov Galaxy poll from Queensland, the effect of which is to add another half a point to Labor’s two-party preferred vote for a gain of only one seat, that being in Western Australia. The Queensland poll, which was a relatively good result for the Coalition, negated the effect of Newspoll in that state. Newspoll’s leadership ratings resulted in little change in the trend readings – no doubt it would have been a different story if I had a net satisfaction series for Scott Morrison, who did particularly badly in Newspoll, but there is still too little data for that to be feasible.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

995 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.7-45.3 to Labor”

  1. ATMs were part of the computerisation of banks and insurance companies resulting in a fall in employment in those industries of over 250,000 over 10 years.

    Banks with 6,8,10 tellers shortly had 2 or 3. For every new office opened, several were closed. Now the ATMs are going. Why have that much money sitting around earning nothing when you can tap and go at the local shops?

    At least the Banks seem to pay a truckload of tax. Bad luck about a few things uncovered so far by the RC.

  2. I’ve worked as an allied health professional, though only in a hospital setting as a student. There, at least around the turn of the century, paper-based records were the norm, and were stored at nurses’ stations, where any employee could theoretically view anything in anyone’s file, if they wanted to. Granted, you would typically need at least some familiarity with medical abbreviations and terminology to understand much of it. Then, when patients are discharged, their medical records for that admission are read for any codeable diagnoses/procedures by the medical records team (this is how hospitals obtain funding).

    I’ve also worked in an educational setting, where e.g. I could, if I wanted to, take a peak in the psychologist’s files (I am not a psychologist), relating to a client I was working with (though the only info of interest to me was IQ test results), as could other upper level school staff who had access to the locked filing cabinets – even though they’re not technically allowed to. The student’s files were stored at the school in archive boxes until they turned 25, where anyone who was responsible for destroying the records could theoretically read them. New referrals were discussed at team meetings, where e.g. you would listen to information presented about clients that you did not directly work with.

    This being said, paper-based records are still a bit more secure I believe than electronic records, given the possibility of hacking, or third parties who are not health professionals taking a peak.

  3. Matthew Guy wants to ban “suspects”(!) from the Melbourne CBD. How will he enforce it? Erect a fence? And what appeal is there over being labelled a suspect? But no, Guy is not trying to turn terror into a political football. Now if he would increase mental health funding, we might stop more attacks. Keep blowing that whistle Matthew, its all you’ve got.

  4. I think it is too late for the greens; their continual attempts to wedge labor and the same same narrative they try to run has created a situation where the party is just not trusted. Their ability to push for the environment is now about nill. Internally they are imploding.

    There is a door over there marked Democrats and Richard Di Natale is leading the party right through it, come hell or high water.

  5. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    The SMH editorial says that the Liberals have become the party of micromanagement.
    Industry leaders have welcomed the federal government’s efforts to support small business but some Liberal MPs are sceptical.
    Paul Karp explains how Labor has accused Dutton of lying to politicise national security.
    Dana McCauley reports on what Joseph Stiglitz said yesterday at the NPC. The Coalition and the IPA would not have liked it!
    And Stiglitz says there is a greater than 50 per cent chance that the US enters into a trade war with China, and he is certain US workers will lose.
    Michael Sainsbury gives us “The Chronicles of a Fleeting Prime Minister”.
    Kudos to Bunnings staff here.
    David Crowe tells us about the latest rumblings from within the Coalition camp.
    If Premier Daniel Andrews has a trump card in his hand for the Victorian election being held on November 24, the state’s economy is it. Victoria’s economy is the strongest of any state in the nation, with the highest economic and wages growth, the second-lowest unemployment rate behind NSW, and a bulging $80 billion pipeline of private and public construction, according to Deloitte Access Economics and Commonwealth Securities.
    Gay Alcorn tells us that some innovative and worthwhile initiatives will be under threat if the Andrews government is voted out on 24 November.
    Matthew Knott reports that even Fox News is backing CNN over Trump in the Acosta legal fight.
    Jess Irvine dissects the latest gender pay gap data.
    Professor of Corporate Law & Governance, Michael Adams, explains why the Federal Court tore up a $35m settlement between ASIC and Westpac over lending standards.
    David Crowe outlines the mess Morison has got us into with his Israeli embassy stupidity. He says some backbenchers have likened the PM’s decision to the “captain’s call” by Tony Abbott to knight Prince Philip.
    Katharine Murphy writes about it, referring to Labor’s description of the mooted move as an “utter debacle”.
    The Australian reports that The Liberal Party recruited a ­“record” number of Chinese-­Australian members at an event linked to a Chinese state media mogul’s networking ­organisation. The recruitment drive comes ahead of next year’s NSW and federal elections, where Labor and the Liberals will fight it out in ­marginal seats with large ethnic populations.
    In the wake of the Foley issue Alexandra Smith looks at the double-edged sword of parliamentary privilege.
    Greg Hunt was forced to do the inevitable in extending the deadline for opting out of My Health Record.
    Michelle Grattan has her say on the backflip.
    Dirty tricks in Melbourne Ports as, once again, rank and file ALP members are locked out – this time literally – by Labor’s ruling class.,12097
    Sara Danckert tells us how Rod Sims has slammed the lack of morals in the banking industry and a mentality that drives a race to the bottom in terms of conduct, saying bankers need to have “good look in the mirror about their ethics”.
    Is Turnbull really done with politics?,12093
    Pilots were not told about an automatic nose-down feature in the 737 Max that may have contributed to the fatal Lion Air crash. The company could finish up being in a bit of trouble over this.
    Elizabeth Knight looks at the big October stock market plunge and wonders if there is et more to come.
    The Greens have warned that Labor is on the cusp of helping to pass the government’s bill banning foreign political donations, despite advice it could interfere with state donation laws.
    Here the Washington Post goes into how Trump increasingly “losing it”.
    Federal crossbenchers will introduce a bill within weeks for a national integrity commission, with wide-ranging powers covering politicians, agencies, lobbyists and private contractors when they are directly dealing with government, such as the NDIS. They’ve had enough.
    Tim Wilson writes that a year after the same-sex marriage vote, Australia is a better place.
    Perth-based Fastbrick Robotics has achieved what it says is a world-first with the fully automated construction of a three-bedroom, two-bathroom house in less than three days.
    We should all be thankful for and proud of the Australian Electoral Commission!
    Carol Anderson wonders why no one is talking about the uncounted, suppressed votes in Florida.
    AMA Victoria warns that more lives could be lost in the coming years unless the government acts ahead of the findings of any future royal commission into mental health.
    A desperate Matthew Guy seems to have gone over the top on his law and order tilt.
    Anti-Corruption detectives are conducting a probe into whether South Australian Attorney-General Vickie Chapman has breached the strict secrecy provisions of the ICAC Act. The Advertiser has revealed detectives have launched a preliminary assessment of the matter and are currently examining the available evidence.
    A group of academics say that Australia needs to triple its social housing by 2036 and tells us the best way to do it.
    Americans are the third largest group seeking asylum, spurred by fears they would be deported by the Trump administration
    The blowout of an oil well in the Great Australian Bight could leak for more than 100 days and foul beaches along Australia’s coastline from Albany in WA to Sydney’s beaches and beyond, a leaked document shows.
    We have a new award – “Idiot of the Week” and this guy gets the first nomination.
    And for “Arsehole of the Week” . . .

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe on Brexit. He has Boris Johnson down to a T.

    Good stuff from Fiona Katauskas.

    Peter Broelman farewell comic genius Stan Lee.

    As does Paul Zanetti.

    Jon Kudelka is still working on the big blue bus.
    Some very good ones in here.

  6. Quoll @ #500 Thursday, November 15th, 2018 – 12:02 am

    Oakeshott Country says:
    Wednesday, November 14, 2018 at 10:39 pm
    You musr write at least 2,000 words here every day spread over 16 hours.
    Do you have a job?

    Ha, seems a bit rich, given the often puerile partisan bloviators to be found dominating the commentary on this blog for years. Unsurprisingly on the page where this ridiculous claim was put, one of the single most resident bloviators cat was responsible for 28% of all posts (14/50 on a single page).
    Interesting to see how febrile and perhaps insecure some are around here that when a different view or information arrives, the demands, squeeling and screeching from the apparent regular bloviators goes through the roof. You’d almost think they think it is their blog to own, not WB’s.
    Personally I think limiting all individual contributors to say half a dozen posts a day would add enormously to the quality. Who knows some may even find something useful to do that actually contributes to society instead. Cheers

    Here we go again.

    You worked out the % of my contributions yesterday!?! SOMEONE needs a life.

    Fyi I did not make as many comments as the others who were discussing UBI and JG. Not that I object to them, as lizzie said, it was an entertaining read, but how about you work out guytaur’s % of contributions in a day, or Nicholas’, or Boerwar? Oh, that’s right, I’m the bete noir that The Greens and their moulded on partisans love to hate because I make a point of pointing out their hypocrisy and the political opportunism of many of their stances.

    Also, my comments were essentially short, or referenced a Tweet that was apposite, or an article that I thought would be of interest. Compared to Nicholas’ contributions, which read like War and Peace. However you have come up with the cockamamie idea that the number of posts one makes should be limited in a day. Well, I guess that means we WILL get a facsimile of War and Peace from Nicholas as he regales us with his carefully-considered thoughts from his massive archive left over from Uni.

    Or, maybe we should just make PB a blog for Greens’ partisans to constantly spew their stuff out, unchallenged? That’s what you really want, isn’t it, Quoll?

    And to censor the rest of us. Trumpy snowflakes, much? 🙂

  7. Teresa May be exiting herself…

    39 MINUTES AGO NOVEMBER 15, 2018
    Brexit supporters in Theresa May’s party will “likely” call for a vote of no confidence in her as their leader, BBC political editor Laura Kuenssberg says, citing a senior member of the Conservative Party.

    Kuenssberg said Brexiteers were so angry about May’s draft deal to leave the European Union that they were on Thursday submitting letters to the head of a committee of Conservative lawmakers responsible for handling any leadership challenge.

    “Senior Tory (Conservative) tells me Brexiteer anger so high that seems likely there will be a call for no-confidence vote tomorrow – letters going in,” she said on Twitter.

  8. The White House is in meltdown

    New reporting paints a picture of the administration descending into a thunderdome of backstabbing and resentment as staffers jockey for position or wonder whether they should get the heck out, all presided over by an erratic, unhappy president. This might sound like a familiar story, but if it isn’t already worse than it has been before, it soon will be, especially now that the midterm elections have cast a cloud over the remaining two years of President Trump’s term.

    Not only won’t there be any more conservative legislation to pass, but also Democrats will be launching one investigation after another, probing everything you’ve done for the past two years

    But there’s no mystery about who the father of this mess is. He’s sitting in the Oval Office, scared and angry that the accountability he has outrun his entire life might actually catch up to him.

  9. ‘MOST of the potential crossbench members support a status quo CFA and category-based caps on rates, and their influence is set to be substantial in the event of a hung parliament.’

    And totally irrelevant if there isn’t one. Is anyone predicting that for Victoria?

    ‘Five regional seats — Shepparton, Geelong, Ovens Valley, Benambra and South West Coast — may switch to independents after the November 24 state election, leading to a scenario where neither Labor or the Coalition can form government.’

    All Coalition. So no.

    ‘“There’s frustration with both parties at the moment in regional Victoria …’

    Well, there might be. But as Labor (alas) holds few seats there, and none of the indies above are contesting those, that’s a moot point.

    The real threat to Labor is that indies bleed away votes at the Lower House level which then don’t flow through to the Upper House. Given that some of the most marginal UH seats for Labor are regional, that could be a concern.

  10. FWIW, I once managed to take my hospital file home with me (it was sitting on the desk when I signed out, and I’d placed my other paperwork on top of it). No one realised. I gave it to one of the nurses to return a couple of weeks later.

  11. phoenixRED @ #511 Thursday, November 15th, 2018 – 6:33 am

    13 Of The Biggest Press Organizations Unite Against Trump In CNN Lawsuit

    Thirteen of the biggest press organizations in the United States ranging from NBC and Fox News to The Washington Post and New York Times have come together in support of CNN’s lawsuit against Trump.

    No posts shown on my machine between 6.33 and 7.39. Where is everybody?

  12. Thanks BK

    I might just add these two links to progress (sic) with Brexit. May has a Draft Agreement which looks significantly like (a) most of the reasons for doing a Brexit are not realized and (b) the really hard cans are kicked down the road. Despite this, the Draft Plan has enfuriated the hard brexiteers, the DUP and the Scottish Tories. The theatre of the absurd continues:

    1. Will May survive as PM?
    2. Will Parliament support the deal?
    3. Will there be a second referendum?

  13. From Michael Pascoe – “With that single irresponsible, idiotic, cynical Jerusalem thought bubble – putting perceived Liberal Party, Trump & Netanyahu interests ahead of Australia’s – Morrison declared himself unfit to be PM.”
    And from Peter van Onselen – “Literally the frontbencher most described to me as hopeless, out of her depth and not up to the job by her colleagues over and over again, including those who worked closely with her, was concetta fierravanti-wells. Who the hell is she to attack the new Environment Minister?”
    Mike Carlton – “I give up. I just fucking give up. The stupidity is absolute, unconquerable. This is Indonesia, a country vital to our interests. And this buffoon is blathering on about sausage sizzles.”
    Jane Caro – “What a pity that Barry O’Sullivan’s gender change will not involve menstruation, a functioning uterus or any of the things that make reproductive rights real & visceral to those who do (mostly women). Why, it won’t even involve a drop in pay or the loss of half his super!
    Stephen Koukoulas – “It’s enough to make Cuba’s former Communist leader Fidel Castro blush.Treasurer Frydenberg will see the govt guarantee money lent to small businesses that the banks currently deem unworthy of loans or are considered too risky to lend to. ”

    You’d have to say this government is on the nose!

  14. @Zuvele

    Actually – one of the high-profile regional independents being touted (Geelong – Darryn Lyons) *is* in a Labor seat, although he’s highly unlikely to win. I’d tip Oscar Yildiz as the only indy likely to snag a seat from the ALP.

    But your point stands. They’ve listed 3 Lib/Nat seats, 1 Labor seat and one (Shepp) which is already an independent. The rest of the crossbench will probably be the 3-4 Greens. So I don’t know what they were on about. But hey, it’s the Weekly Times, it’s just wishful thinking dressed up as “analysis” to throw to the Murdoch fans in the bush.

  15. @zoomster

    Yeah he was – I just scrolled back up to check again. You quoted:

    ‘Five regional seats — Shepparton, *Geelong*, Ovens Valley, Benambra and South West Coast — may switch to independents after the November 24 state election, leading to a scenario where neither Labor or the Coalition can form government.’

    I figured you’d just overlooked him.

  16. BK
    Yes. I assume that those against in Cabinet are now bound by Cabinet solidarity to support the Draft Agreement in public.
    But given the slack Tory discipline over the past two years, I would not hold my breath.
    Selective leaks about the 500 page document are like cry me a river.

  17. Here’s the guy who caused the Great Bunnings Onion To Do. Meet Trevor the Banana Bender
    “When I went down, that is the first thing I thought of — ‘don’t let your head hit the concrete’.”

    After the incident, the company offered to call him an ambulance, but he declined at the time as he felt okay…….became concerned about his recently replaced hip.He had to undergo an MRI to ensure that the hip was not damaged, leaving him no choice but to pursue Bunnings for the emotional stress caused by the accident…….. I went to another Bunnings a couple of weeks after and I had a panic attack.

    “Every time I go into Bunnings now I look on the floor — I look for onions.”

    Trevor was compensated by Bunnings and signed a non-disclosure agreement.

  18. The impact of the GFC was not understood by many

    The government of the day put stimulation into the economy both fiscal and monetary

    The principal danger was that post 2000 RBA data advised that the growth in the Australian economy was due to private debt

    Our home mortgage debt had increased from $335 Billion to $1.226 Trillion over the 10 years post 2000, a 350% increase in an economy growing at less than the historical measure of 3.5% PA

    Until 2013, so a very brief 5 years on from the GFC, this stimulation remained, although at reduced levels except for monetary policy, monetary policy dictated by private debt levels

    Post 2013 and the change of government we were subjected to right wing ideology being trickle down economics, one man’s pay rise is another man’s job and, most significantly, that austerity results in confidence and economic growth

    This change was at precisely the wrong time

    The result is what we see today across the landscape with flat to recessionary wages growth (an increase of 0.6% lauded by some!), that private debt levels remain, that COL pressures have ramped up across a raft of fronts from energy to private health care premiums putting pressure on household budgets, that retail sales are under pressure, that media organisations are under pressure witness the Write downs and trevails of Murdoch, Fairfax, the 9 and 10 Networks which failed and now the pressure on house prices

    These are the classic responses to an economy built on private debt and when that private debt is paid down (including by our banks renegotiating interest only lending approvals)

    Some State governments recognise the danger, investing in infrastructure to stimulate their economies

    These are not governments which are wedded to right wing ideology and austerity

    We see the response of the ASX, down 12% since 31 August, with no respite in sight because our 70% plus service industry economy is under the pressure it is under due to now 5 years of right wing ideology

    The responsibility of government is to manage across the economic cycle and from 5 years ago our government has reneged from this responsibility deferring to right wing ideology instead

    And now we all pay the price – making tax cuts look absolutely trite

    The economic levers have been mismanaged over the past 5 years – and that mismanagement leads to questioning of the economic agenda by references we see on here from the likes of Nicholas and others supporting a UBI and other extreme measures

    The problem does not require the extreme and unsustainable measures promoted – it does require a return of government to its most basic responsibility being the management of the economy across the economic cycle

    And we need confidence in education, opportunity and delivery, that the growth of the economy provides a level of advantage across our diverse society not just to a demographic of our diverse society

    As Stiglitz describes, a rising economy lifts all

    Not that one man’s pay rise is another man’s job

    And not that austerity leads to confidence and that confidence leads to growth, an ideology which reneges on the basic responsibility of government to manage across the economic cycle by utilising the fiscal and monetary options it has available – including Its budget outcomes

    Government is not a business, captive to its Balance Sheet and the management of the assets that Balance Sheet is invested into to the exclusive benefit of that Balance Sheet and the growth of Capital and Reserves year on year on year

    We have to get back to basics including because our recovery from the GFC waa stalled 5 years ago by right wing ideology and now, 10 years on we are back to an impaired position once again

    Look at the 10 year graph of the ASX for confirmation

    The ASX waa at 6,800 Points prior to the GFC

    Where is it today?

    Back to under where it was 5 years ago, when it had recovered to very near 6,000 Points

    So 5 years of less than nothing

    Except tax cuts!!!

  19. Zoomster

    Re Liberal candidate for Yan Yean. I heard on ABC Melbourne that the party had dis-endorsed her due to some unpalatable social media activity connected with her.

    So does that mean she could still stand as an independent?

  20. [‘Mike Carlton – “I give up. I just fucking give up.’]

    The protean Morrison claims the embassy issue has no bearing on the trade agreement with Indonesia – what a fool! The proposed move, now said by him to only have a 5% chance, was clearly designed to sway a certain cohort in Wentworth; it failed miserably. He’s now dug himself a sinkhole. “Mad as Hell” sent him up gutlessly last night, and deservedly so. This ham actor has to go and go soon.

  21. Meanwhile on planet Zog in an alternative universe Greg Sheridan looks at Pastor Fozzie Bear’s diplomacy cred.
    PM’s strong start on foreign policy

    The PM’s instinct as a statesman is to marry our values and interest

    Morrison has a good instinct to marry our values and our interests in foreign policy. His government machine is not perfec­tly assembled yet, but is moving in the right direction.

  22. And just to add to the description we have the ASX in “Bear” territory, house prices being commented on as they are and, if you have money on Term Deposit, the interest rate has a 2 in front of it

    So where is confidence?

    Money under the bed?

    And this is just 10 years on from the GFC, which was 20 years on from a Stock Market crash and the Savings & Loans fiasco

    Which was 15 years on from the First Global Oil Shock and the Stock Market crash

  23. FauxMoFo – the rot started with that ‘hands up’ debasement of Parliament set to Fatboy Slim.

    This might be a big call, but Scotty is making a concerted bid for the ‘Worst Prime Minister Ever’ tag. Small set of data points to work with so far – I like Boerwar’s cataloguing

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