YouGov Galaxy: Labor leads 54-46 in Richmond, 56-44 in Geelong

Good news for Labor in seats where they face challenges from the Greens and a high-profile independent.

The Herald Sun has two more YouGov Galaxy robopolls of individual electorates for the Victorian state election, with samples of 500 to 550. There’s good news for Labor from Richmond, where it had been thought Labor had been damaged by the Liberals’ decision not to field a candidate. The poll suggests Labor member Richard Wynne should be able to survive regardless, recording a 49% to 42% lead over Greens candidate Kathleen Maltzahn (33.3% to 31.5% in 2014, when the Liberals polled 20.7%), and a 54-46 lead on two-party preferred.

There is also a poll for the Geelong electorate, where the Herald Sun seems inordinately keen on the independent candidacy of Darryn Lyons, who was mayor of Geelong at the time of the council’s sacking in April 2016. The poll has Lyons on an actually quite modest 15%, ahead of the Greens on 11% but well behind the Liberals on 28%. Labor incumbent Christine Couzens is on 40%, and leads the Liberal candidate 56-44 after preferences.

Like the Mordialloc and Frankston polls published on Monday, these ones were conducted on Saturday and Sunday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

118 comments on “YouGov Galaxy: Labor leads 54-46 in Richmond, 56-44 in Geelong”

  1. https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/the-lure-of-the-democracy-sausage-draws-thousands-to-cast-early-votes-20181115-p50g9y.html

    More than 300,000 voters are expected to have cast their ballots at state election pre-poll booths in the four days since they opened on Monday.
    :::::
    On Monday, the first day of pre-poll voting, the VEC tweeted that “a record 75,456 early votes were cast”. By Wednesday the total had risen to 238,559, more than double the 2014 pre-poll figure.
    ::::
    The Victorian Electoral Commission has said that more than 4.1 million Victorians have registered to vote, up from the 3.8 million who cast ballots in 2014.

  2. Kevin’s right, though ultimately, this is a moot point in this discussion, as (probably) no one on this thread has seen any internal polling numbers from the Libs anyway. The opinions above were posted based entirely on Kroger’s public spin and Kennett’s quarter-time rev up in the Australian.

    As multiple people have noted – if the Libs had polling that showed a narrowing, it’d probably be front and centre in the Herald Sun. But they’re holding it quiet. So either their polling says they won’t win, or they’ve taken a different tactic to previous campaigns. Both options are possible, but I’ll be optimistic and say I reckon it’s the former.

    I think we’re seeing some wishful thinking from someone who wants to see a specific ALP member gone from his seat.

  3. How many of the 300,000 extra voters are 18-19-20 year olds who signed on due to the marriage equality plebiscite (and are likely to skew Labor/Green)?

    Going on from that – how do pollsters assemble their lists of phone numbers? I’ve literally never been polled, although my wife has been semi-regularly.

  4. I was once polled but it was by Roy Morgan when they were doing face to face door knocking in about 2005. I remember there was a work choices question.

  5. South Barwon is another seat where the growth has not favourable to the Liberals. There strong spot in the seat is the Highton area of Geelong, the weak spots are Grovedale and to a least of extant Torquay, both of which have grown rapidly. And there is a new population in Armstrong Creek who are likely to be more like Grovedale than Highton.
    Even if the statewide swing is not very big, the swing because of the growth in South Barwon is likely to more towards the ALP than the state average.
    Also the Candidate is the ex-federal member for the area, so he is well known in the area too.

  6. I’ve been called by pollsters a bit lately.

    I was polled in the Goongerah commissioned Reachtel poll of Prahran, Richmond and Bentleigh, a week later I was polled by an internal Liberal poll specific to Prahran (verified the number as Liberal Party of Victoria and sounded like Katie Allen read the questions, not to mention push poll questions about Andrews “doing enough”), and 2 days later missed a call that when I googled the number, it came up as political polling too.

  7. B.S. Fairman @ 9:50 pm

    South Barwon is another seat where the growth has not favourable to the Liberals.

    I wasn’t much taken by Darren Cheeseman in his earlier incarnation as MHR for Corangamite, but he’s certainly put in the hard yards this time around. The sort of extensive door-knocking he’s undertaken isn’t easy in a seat with the geography of South Barwon.

  8. I live in Prahran and have been polled at least twice a week by Yougov and also by Reachtel for at least the past 6 weeks. Are they tracking my persona’s changing attitudes to their hot button issues. This week they were push-polling.

    Many countries ban polling in the weeks leading up to an election. We should too!

    I thought the voice was Kelly ODwyer so it’s Katie Allen

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