BludgerTrack: 54.7-45.3 to Labor

After a dire result from Newspoll, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate is hardly better for the Coalition than it was immediately after the leadership coup.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with this week’s Newspoll and the YouGov Galaxy poll from Queensland, the effect of which is to add another half a point to Labor’s two-party preferred vote for a gain of only one seat, that being in Western Australia. The Queensland poll, which was a relatively good result for the Coalition, negated the effect of Newspoll in that state. Newspoll’s leadership ratings resulted in little change in the trend readings – no doubt it would have been a different story if I had a net satisfaction series for Scott Morrison, who did particularly badly in Newspoll, but there is still too little data for that to be feasible.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

995 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.7-45.3 to Labor”

  1. Fulvio Sammut
    says:
    Thursday, November 15, 2018 at 10:31 pm
    Fuck off, you ignorant dickhead, Nath.
    _____________________
    You’re an angry little man. Napoleon complex?

  2. Christopher Hope
    ‏Verified account @christopherhope
    11m11 minutes ago

    BREAKING Eurosceptic Tory leader Jacob Rees-Mogg to submit letter of no confidence in Theresa May as Conservative leader later today, sources confirm

  3. Sorry, William. I’ve just had enough of tolerating smug facile idiots for today.

    Tomorrow I’ll probably feel better.

    I’ll sign off for today.

  4. Debbie Kilroy
    ‏ @DebKilroy
    3h3 hours ago

    Serco has won a number of multi-billion dollar government contracts to privately run & deliver healthcare in Australia’s prisons, hospitals & detention centres Serco will have access to all our digital health records WTF #auspol #imaginingabolition

  5. Steve777 @ #582 Thursday, November 15th, 2018 – 6:54 pm

    Is the UK Government collapsing?

    Well it seems they don’t have the numbers to pass the draft bill, so maybe! 🙂

    “I plead with you to accept the political reality of the situation you now face”

    Conservative MP Mark Francois says it’s mathematically impossible to get the draft #Brexit deal through the House of Commons

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-15/live-britains-brexit-minister-quits-triggering-over-mays-deal/10502726

  6. An interesting review of the book “How Brexit Broke Up Britain” by Finland O’Toole:

    ‘The real agenda of the Hard Brexiteers is not… about taking back control; it is about letting go of control. For people like Dominic Raab, the Brexit secretary, the dream is not of a change in which regulation happens, but of a completion of the deregulating neoliberal project set in motion by Margaret Thatcher in 1979. The Brexit fantasy is of an “open” and “global” Britain, unshackled from EU regulation, that can lower its environmental, health, and labor standards and unleash a new golden age of buccaneering hyper-capitalism. Again, this is a perfectly coherent (if repellent) agenda. But it is not what most of those who voted for Brexit think it is supposed to be. And this gap makes it impossible to say what “the British” want—they want contradictory things.’

    https://www.nybooks.com/daily/2018/11/13/how-brexit-broke-up-britain/?utm_source=quora&utm_medium=referral

    (May have been linked here before – forget where I found it).

  7. “Barry O’Sullivan in SEnate QT. I heard him ranting and declaring his gender to be female the other day in relation to abortion. Is this really what the coalition has become?”
    It is fairly obvious that he is not female. He does not display much in the way pf male characteristics so I guess we have to take his word about his gender.

  8. nath says:
    Thursday, November 15, 2018 at 10:33 pm
    Fulvio Sammut
    says:
    Thursday, November 15, 2018 at 10:31 pm
    Fuck off, you ignorant dickhead, Nath.
    _____________________
    You’re an angry little man. Napoleon complex?

    Actually Nath I think you will find that Fulvio has an incredible ability to read the feeling of the majority

  9. On the donations reform that was passed by the LNP and ALP, I’m a bit confused as to what actually passed; the ABC report seems to contradict the reporting by the Guardian:
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/15/coalition-bill-to-ban-foreign-political-donations-passes-senate

    Labor succeeded in making a symbolic second reading amendment calling for the threshold for disclosure of political donations to be reduced to $1,000. A suite of Greens amendments, including to cap all political donations at $1,000, failed.

    … which is itself confusing – I’m not sure what the “symbolic” adjective is supposed to mean in the Guardian’s reporting above … if the amendment got up that’s much more than a symbolic thing, that’s Labor getting a win on getting the disclosure threshold they have long advocated (and practiced themselves voluntarily).

    And the interplay with the Greens, and what they were attempting to legislate, in that summary is quite different to what Pegasus quoted earlier.

    As far as it goes the bill, if it is as described in the Guardian piece, seems like a good step forward to me, but of course it doesn’t have everything that the Greens wanted (tiny violin playing).

  10. @Swamprat – Christ on a crutch, Little Lord Fauntleroy is making a run at No. 10? Truly, the Tories are dipping into the shallow end of the talent pool now…

  11. Peter Stanton
    Actually Nath I think you will find that Fulvio has an incredible ability to read the feeling of the majority
    ___________________________
    Why would that be? I’m actually loved and adored on here. At least people are not indifferent to me, which is how everyone feels about ‘peter stanton’. You sir, are a fopdoodle.

    Noun. fopdoodle (plural fopdoodles) (obsolete) A stupid or insignificant fellow; a fool; a simpleton.

  12. As I said the Coalition have no idea how to play the political game unlike Labor who are brilliant at it but at least they have some idea economically. Looking at the latest financial numbers you can see how the improved job market has really helped the budget. From a 2016-17 deficit of 33.2 billion to a now actual 10.1 billion deficit in 17-18 (a massive improvement on what was forecast in the May budget – about 8.1 billion). Strange how Labor always over-estimate revenue (Swanny was brilliant at it) and the Coalition always under-estimate revenue. One party must be honest.
    When Myefo is released in Mid December, I expect 18-19 to be forecast to be in surplus. I think right now revenue and spending is dollar for dollar. If only the Coalition had some idea politically, the 2019 election would be a contest.

  13. Jackol:

    My reading is that the Greens are seeking relevance by trying to differentiate themselves, even if it means having to fib or conveniently ignoring reality in order to do so.

  14. Jackol, like you I haven’t read the bill, but I interpret the Guardian to mean that there were two separate things being considered, both of which included reference to $1,000. Labor’s amendment (which included a political donations disclosure threshold of $1,000) succeeded, the other (which had a $1,000 cap) failed. If this interpretation is correct then donations will be permitted above $1,000 but must be made public.

  15. LR – yup, that was how I read the Guardian interpretation, but the ABC report says this:

    The Greens also failed to pass amendments that would see all political donations above $1,000 declared, meaning anything less than $13,000 will remain anonymous.

    So either the ABC or the Guardian has made a mistake. The “symbolic” in the Guardian report sticks out because it’s implying it wasn’t a meaningful amendment so maybe there was some weird confusing procedural shit that ends up meaning nothing changes on that front…

  16. Jackol, I’ve now read the ABC report. You may be right about “symbolic”. It seems like there was a compromise with the Coalition to stop a ban on foreign donations to third parties, which would have impacted charities. So a face saving “symbolic” amendment was passed???

  17. swamprat

    Seriously, who would want to take over as PM now – more of a poisoned chalice than Morrison has inherited! Boris Johnson could probably have challenged and won in the last year but clearly decided it would be better to let May take the fall over Brexit, then come to the “rescue” after the shambles it creates.

    To imagine Sir Humphrey & Bernard chatting –

    Bernard – Surely no-one would be so overconfident of their own abilities, not to mention actually stupid, to challenge for PM right now? And be the bunny who cops Brexit full on?

    Sir Humphrey – I don’t know, Bernard, Rees-Mogg might just fit that bill.

  18. Michael Avenatti, the brash lawyer and cable news fixture who came to prominence after he sued President Trump on behalf of an adult-film star, was arrested Wednesday in Los Angeles on suspicion of domestic violence, police said.

    The Los Angeles Police Department said he was booked on a felony domestic violence charge, with a $50,000 bail.

    “This is an ongoing investigation and we will provide more details as they become available,” the department wrote on Twitter. The incident happened Tuesday, department spokesman Jeff Lee said.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/11/15/michael-avenatti-arrested-suspicion-domestic-violence/?utm_term=.0d328b6b8d71

  19. Does a no confidence motion mean a second referendum more or less likely?

    I’m hoping for a second referendum in order to repudiate the likes of Cambridge Analytica and indirectly others who have engaged in similar bastardry such as Trump and his supporters.

  20. Jim SciuttoVerified account@jimsciutto
    3h3 hours ago
    New: Jamal Khashoggi was killed following “a fight and a quarrel” at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. He was tied up and injected with an overdose of a sedative that killed him, then his body was chopped up and given to a local collaborator, says Saudi public prosecutor.

    A local collaborator? What does that mean?

  21. @Confessions: I’ve stopped paying attention to the Saudis’ ever-changing story of the Khashoggi murder. It’s like looking through a kaleidoscope at a disco ball.

    What I know is:

    a) The Saudis used a Trumped-up (pun intentional) excuse to get Khashoggi into the consulate;
    b) The Saudi wet-work team then tortured, murdered and dismembered Khashoggi;
    c) They dressed up an impersonator in his clothes in an effort to fool Turkish video surveillance on the streets into believing he left A-OK;
    d) They lied about the entire matter, start to finish. They started by lying, they continued by lying and they’re lying now.

    I don’t know why they murdered Khashoggi – not for certain – but if I had to place a bet, it would be on Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) instigation. MbS is set to become the first third-generation monarch of Saudi Arabia – to date, all monarchs have been ibn Saud or his children (since 1902, to be precise – ibn Saud’s recapture of Riyadh). And MbS is a deeply controlling kind of person, who would order a journalist murdered for criticising him, then order the journalist’s son to publicly shake his hand and kowtow to him as a show of his power.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/23/dread-gives-way-to-relief-in-riyadh-as-erdogan-holds-fire

    However, Khashoggi had published a series of article critical of Mohammad bin Salman, then published a few articles mildly critical of Donald Trump – so MbS ordered him blackballed from Saudi media. He (sensibly) fled into exile – ironically, to America – and took up writing more critical articles regarding the House of Saud. While abroad, he met a Turkish woman – Hatice Cengiz – and they fell in love. They wished to marry, but first Khashoggi needed to prove his divorce from his first wife (Turkish law prohibits polygyny, a legacy of Ataturk’s determined secularism) – which meant getting a certification of divorce from…the Saudi consulate.

    The rest, I think we all know. But I honestly don’t gaf what the Saudis say – MbS is murdering swine, and the KSA government are either complicit or cowards.

  22. Matt @ #984 Friday, November 16th, 2018 – 4:17 am

    @Confessions: I’ve stopped paying attention to the Saudis’ ever-changing story of the Khashoggi murder. It’s like looking through a kaleidoscope at a disco ball.

    What I know is:

    a) The Saudis used a Trumped-up (pun intentional) excuse to get Khashoggi into the consulate;
    b) The Saudi wet-work team then tortured, murdered and dismembered Khashoggi;
    c) They dressed up an impersonator in his clothes in an effort to fool Turkish video surveillance on the streets into believing he left A-OK;
    d) They lied about the entire matter, start to finish. They started by lying, they continued by lying and they’re lying now.

    I don’t know why they murdered Khashoggi – not for certain – but if I had to place a bet, it would be on Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) instigation. MbS is set to become the first third-generation monarch of Saudi Arabia – to date, all monarchs have been ibn Saud or his children (since 1902, to be precise – ibn Saud’s recapture of Riyadh). And MbS is a deeply controlling kind of person, who would order a journalist murdered for criticising him, then order the journalist’s son to publicly shake his hand and kowtow to him as a show of his power.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/23/dread-gives-way-to-relief-in-riyadh-as-erdogan-holds-fire

    However, Khashoggi had published a series of article critical of Mohammad bin Salman, then published a few articles mildly critical of Donald Trump – so MbS ordered him blackballed from Saudi media. He (sensibly) fled into exile – ironically, to America – and took up writing more critical articles regarding the House of Saud. While abroad, he met a Turkish woman – Hatice Cengiz – and they fell in love. They wished to marry, but first Khashoggi needed to prove his divorce from his first wife (Turkish law prohibits polygyny, a legacy of Ataturk’s determined secularism) – which meant getting a certification of divorce from…the Saudi consulate.

    The rest, I think we all know. But I honestly don’t gaf what the Saudis say – MbS is murdering swine, and the KSA government are either complicit or cowards.

    Matt

    I agree with all of that but must add that kashoggi was not just a simple journalist. He has access to many, many secrets and was trusted by security agents across the world.

    He was the journalist who took Robert Fisk to meet Osama Bin Laden, so we can assume that the US, UK and Saudi agents all were aware of him and has if not trust, then lines of communication. I say that because Fisk’s visit was not some secret so it stands to reason that authorities in each rlevant country woul if not support the visit then not actively intervene.

    He was very close to previous Kings/their families, who are rivals to MBS so I assume that there was some sort of dynastic maneuvering in the mix too.

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