The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with this week’s Newspoll and the YouGov Galaxy poll from Queensland, the effect of which is to add another half a point to Labor’s two-party preferred vote for a gain of only one seat, that being in Western Australia. The Queensland poll, which was a relatively good result for the Coalition, negated the effect of Newspoll in that state. Newspoll’s leadership ratings resulted in little change in the trend readings – no doubt it would have been a different story if I had a net satisfaction series for Scott Morrison, who did particularly badly in Newspoll, but there is still too little data for that to be feasible.
BludgerTrack: 54.7-45.3 to Labor
After a dire result from Newspoll, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate is hardly better for the Coalition than it was immediately after the leadership coup.
Mavis meant he was quoting someone Foolvio.
BBC Live from the House of Commons is riveting stuff if you can access it. (On BBC world news )
Fuck off, you ignorant dickhead, Nath.
The excuses coming from the Tories regarding brexit is just pathetic:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2018/nov/15/brexit-deal-theresa-may-takes-agreement-to-parliament-politics-live
“Best available”.
Fulvio Sammut
says:
Thursday, November 15, 2018 at 10:31 pm
Fuck off, you ignorant dickhead, Nath.
_____________________
You’re an angry little man. Napoleon complex?
What part of “fuck off” don’t you understand?
Fulvio, I’m a little confused by your form over the last ten minutes or so.
Christopher Hope
Verified account @christopherhope
11m11 minutes ago
BREAKING Eurosceptic Tory leader Jacob Rees-Mogg to submit letter of no confidence in Theresa May as Conservative leader later today, sources confirm
Sorry, William. I’ve just had enough of tolerating smug facile idiots for today.
Tomorrow I’ll probably feel better.
I’ll sign off for today.
Debbie Kilroy
@DebKilroy
3h3 hours ago
Serco has won a number of multi-billion dollar government contracts to privately run & deliver healthcare in Australia’s prisons, hospitals & detention centres Serco will have access to all our digital health records WTF #auspol #imaginingabolition
#UK Spill?
Mavis @9:38 PM – thank you.
Is the UK Government collapsing?
@Steve777
I was hoping our government would be collapsing first…
Steve777 @ #582 Thursday, November 15th, 2018 – 6:54 pm
Well it seems they don’t have the numbers to pass the draft bill, so maybe! 🙂
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-15/live-britains-brexit-minister-quits-triggering-over-mays-deal/10502726
Steve777 @ #963 Thursday, November 15th, 2018 – 7:54 pm
Something’s going on. I’m reminded of that time when Turnbull’s leadership circa 2009 was coming to an end, and a conga line of shadow ministers all appeared in the media resigning from the front bench so they could vote against the CPRS.
An interesting review of the book “How Brexit Broke Up Britain” by Finland O’Toole:
https://www.nybooks.com/daily/2018/11/13/how-brexit-broke-up-britain/?utm_source=quora&utm_medium=referral
(May have been linked here before – forget where I found it).
Unrulely Britannia!
“Barry O’Sullivan in SEnate QT. I heard him ranting and declaring his gender to be female the other day in relation to abortion. Is this really what the coalition has become?”
It is fairly obvious that he is not female. He does not display much in the way pf male characteristics so I guess we have to take his word about his gender.
As far as I can see the sticking point for Brexit is a divided Ireland. Unless that is sorted how can there be progress on Brexit?
nath says:
Thursday, November 15, 2018 at 10:33 pm
Fulvio Sammut
says:
Thursday, November 15, 2018 at 10:31 pm
Fuck off, you ignorant dickhead, Nath.
_____________________
You’re an angry little man. Napoleon complex?
Actually Nath I think you will find that Fulvio has an incredible ability to read the feeling of the majority
Goll @ #968 Thursday, November 15th, 2018 – 8:14 pm
lol very apt 😆
Rees-Mogg as PM will do wonders for Scottish support to
dissove the Union. 🙂
On the donations reform that was passed by the LNP and ALP, I’m a bit confused as to what actually passed; the ABC report seems to contradict the reporting by the Guardian:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/15/coalition-bill-to-ban-foreign-political-donations-passes-senate
… which is itself confusing – I’m not sure what the “symbolic” adjective is supposed to mean in the Guardian’s reporting above … if the amendment got up that’s much more than a symbolic thing, that’s Labor getting a win on getting the disclosure threshold they have long advocated (and practiced themselves voluntarily).
And the interplay with the Greens, and what they were attempting to legislate, in that summary is quite different to what Pegasus quoted earlier.
As far as it goes the bill, if it is as described in the Guardian piece, seems like a good step forward to me, but of course it doesn’t have everything that the Greens wanted (tiny violin playing).
@Swamprat – Christ on a crutch, Little Lord Fauntleroy is making a run at No. 10? Truly, the Tories are dipping into the shallow end of the talent pool now…
Matt, well he is tendering his resignation and he is definitely born to rule. 🙂
Peter Stanton
Actually Nath I think you will find that Fulvio has an incredible ability to read the feeling of the majority
___________________________
Why would that be? I’m actually loved and adored on here. At least people are not indifferent to me, which is how everyone feels about ‘peter stanton’. You sir, are a fopdoodle.
Noun. fopdoodle (plural fopdoodles) (obsolete) A stupid or insignificant fellow; a fool; a simpleton.
As I said the Coalition have no idea how to play the political game unlike Labor who are brilliant at it but at least they have some idea economically. Looking at the latest financial numbers you can see how the improved job market has really helped the budget. From a 2016-17 deficit of 33.2 billion to a now actual 10.1 billion deficit in 17-18 (a massive improvement on what was forecast in the May budget – about 8.1 billion). Strange how Labor always over-estimate revenue (Swanny was brilliant at it) and the Coalition always under-estimate revenue. One party must be honest.
When Myefo is released in Mid December, I expect 18-19 to be forecast to be in surplus. I think right now revenue and spending is dollar for dollar. If only the Coalition had some idea politically, the 2019 election would be a contest.
Jackol:
My reading is that the Greens are seeking relevance by trying to differentiate themselves, even if it means having to fib or conveniently ignoring reality in order to do so.
Jackol, like you I haven’t read the bill, but I interpret the Guardian to mean that there were two separate things being considered, both of which included reference to $1,000. Labor’s amendment (which included a political donations disclosure threshold of $1,000) succeeded, the other (which had a $1,000 cap) failed. If this interpretation is correct then donations will be permitted above $1,000 but must be made public.
LR – yup, that was how I read the Guardian interpretation, but the ABC report says this:
So either the ABC or the Guardian has made a mistake. The “symbolic” in the Guardian report sticks out because it’s implying it wasn’t a meaningful amendment so maybe there was some weird confusing procedural shit that ends up meaning nothing changes on that front…
Petula Clark turns 86 today and she is currently undertaking a concert tour of Canada!
Steve777 1108pm
I have read a similar analysis, maybe by someone else.
They’re right – it’s been all downhill for Britain ever since they banned children from working in the coalmines!
Looxury!
Sorry Rees-Mogg is tendering a letter of no confidence in May as PM. If they get enough letters there will be a spill.
Jackol, I’ve now read the ABC report. You may be right about “symbolic”. It seems like there was a compromise with the Coalition to stop a ban on foreign donations to third parties, which would have impacted charities. So a face saving “symbolic” amendment was passed???
Britain is having leadership issues too.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-15/live-uk-brexit-minister-quits-triggering-over-mays-deal/10502726
swamprat
Seriously, who would want to take over as PM now – more of a poisoned chalice than Morrison has inherited! Boris Johnson could probably have challenged and won in the last year but clearly decided it would be better to let May take the fall over Brexit, then come to the “rescue” after the shambles it creates.
To imagine Sir Humphrey & Bernard chatting –
Bernard – Surely no-one would be so overconfident of their own abilities, not to mention actually stupid, to challenge for PM right now? And be the bunny who cops Brexit full on?
Sir Humphrey – I don’t know, Bernard, Rees-Mogg might just fit that bill.
It’s certainly not boring over in the Old Dart.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2018/nov/15/brexit-deal-theresa-may-takes-agreement-to-parliament-politics-live
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/11/15/michael-avenatti-arrested-suspicion-domestic-violence/?utm_term=.0d328b6b8d71
Does a no confidence motion mean a second referendum more or less likely?
I’m hoping for a second referendum in order to repudiate the likes of Cambridge Analytica and indirectly others who have engaged in similar bastardry such as Trump and his supporters.
Steve777,
His name is Fintan. Probably spellcheck.
A local collaborator? What does that mean?
@Confessions: I’ve stopped paying attention to the Saudis’ ever-changing story of the Khashoggi murder. It’s like looking through a kaleidoscope at a disco ball.
What I know is:
a) The Saudis used a Trumped-up (pun intentional) excuse to get Khashoggi into the consulate;
b) The Saudi wet-work team then tortured, murdered and dismembered Khashoggi;
c) They dressed up an impersonator in his clothes in an effort to fool Turkish video surveillance on the streets into believing he left A-OK;
d) They lied about the entire matter, start to finish. They started by lying, they continued by lying and they’re lying now.
I don’t know why they murdered Khashoggi – not for certain – but if I had to place a bet, it would be on Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) instigation. MbS is set to become the first third-generation monarch of Saudi Arabia – to date, all monarchs have been ibn Saud or his children (since 1902, to be precise – ibn Saud’s recapture of Riyadh). And MbS is a deeply controlling kind of person, who would order a journalist murdered for criticising him, then order the journalist’s son to publicly shake his hand and kowtow to him as a show of his power.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/23/dread-gives-way-to-relief-in-riyadh-as-erdogan-holds-fire
However, Khashoggi had published a series of article critical of Mohammad bin Salman, then published a few articles mildly critical of Donald Trump – so MbS ordered him blackballed from Saudi media. He (sensibly) fled into exile – ironically, to America – and took up writing more critical articles regarding the House of Saud. While abroad, he met a Turkish woman – Hatice Cengiz – and they fell in love. They wished to marry, but first Khashoggi needed to prove his divorce from his first wife (Turkish law prohibits polygyny, a legacy of Ataturk’s determined secularism) – which meant getting a certification of divorce from…the Saudi consulate.
The rest, I think we all know. But I honestly don’t gaf what the Saudis say – MbS is murdering swine, and the KSA government are either complicit or cowards.
New thread.
Matt @ #984 Friday, November 16th, 2018 – 4:17 am
Matt
I agree with all of that but must add that kashoggi was not just a simple journalist. He has access to many, many secrets and was trusted by security agents across the world.
He was the journalist who took Robert Fisk to meet Osama Bin Laden, so we can assume that the US, UK and Saudi agents all were aware of him and has if not trust, then lines of communication. I say that because Fisk’s visit was not some secret so it stands to reason that authorities in each rlevant country woul if not support the visit then not actively intervene.
He was very close to previous Kings/their families, who are rivals to MBS so I assume that there was some sort of dynastic maneuvering in the mix too.