BludgerTrack: 54.7-45.3 to Labor

After a dire result from Newspoll, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate is hardly better for the Coalition than it was immediately after the leadership coup.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with this week’s Newspoll and the YouGov Galaxy poll from Queensland, the effect of which is to add another half a point to Labor’s two-party preferred vote for a gain of only one seat, that being in Western Australia. The Queensland poll, which was a relatively good result for the Coalition, negated the effect of Newspoll in that state. Newspoll’s leadership ratings resulted in little change in the trend readings – no doubt it would have been a different story if I had a net satisfaction series for Scott Morrison, who did particularly badly in Newspoll, but there is still too little data for that to be feasible.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

995 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.7-45.3 to Labor”

  1. Thanks William. A projected loss of 25 seats should see a lot of Liberal MPs in a reflective mood over the Christmas break. Not much time left for ScumMo to turn things around and frankly not many ideas to do so either.

    The late counnting is looking better and better for the Dems in the US mid-terms. Sinema has now been confirmed as Senate winner in Arizona.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/democrat-wins-arizona-senate-seat-for-first-time-in-30-years-as-more-seats-fall-to-dems-20181114-p50fuu.html

  2. Conservative lawyer Ted Olson accepts CNN case against White House after refusing to join Trump’s Russia defense

    Conservative lawyer Ted Olson, former Solicitor General under President George W. Bush, is now representing CNN in a case against the White House.

    In a statement on Tuesday, Olson said that he was suing the White House on behalf of CNN after correspondent Jim Acosta had his press pass revoked.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/11/conservative-lawyer-ted-olson-accepts-cnn-case-white-house-refusing-join-trumps-russia-defense/

  3. WH official shreds Trump ahead of rumored mass firings: ‘That’s how he works — he’s doused people in gasoline’

    With President Donald Trump reportedly considering a mass purge of top White House officials, one Trump White House official bitterly compared the president to an arsonist.

    In a Wall Street Journal report that details Trump’s plans to fire both Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen and top John Bolton deputy Mira Ricardel, one current White House official said that the president has made a habit of keeping officials constantly on edge about their fates.

    “This is how the president works,” the official said. “He’s doused a bunch of people in gasoline and he’s waiting for someone to light a match.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/11/wh-official-shreds-trump-ahead-rumored-mass-firings-thats-works-hes-doused-people-gasoline/

  4. Last night, I falsely co-opted A_E when I meant ab11. Excuse me gentlemen, and blame appropriately.

    Thank you Mr Bowe.

    Light rain on the roof is a good start to another day.

  5. ‘CNN has a very good case’: Fox News analyst says White House will ‘quickly’ go down in flames against Jim Acosta

    Fox News judicial correspondent Andrew Napolitano predicted on Tuesday that CNN would likely prevail in a case against the White House after it banned CNN reporter Jim Acosta.

    Napolitano explained to Fox Business host Stuart Varney that the White House does not have the right to revoke Acosta’s press pass simply because his questions irritated President Donald Trump.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/11/cnn-good-case-fox-news-analyst-says-white-house-will-quickly-go-flames-jim-acosta/

  6. Who would work for this clown? Must be scraping beyond the bottom of the barrel now..

    “REUTERS
    31 MINUTES AGO NOVEMBER 14, 2018
    US President Donald Trump will remove Department of Homeland Security chief Kirstjen Nielsen and replace chief of staff John Kelly in another shake-up of his administration, US news outlets report, citing multiple unnamed sources.

    Trump has decided to remove Nielsen, a Kelly protege who became the secretary at Homeland Security when he left the job to become Trump’s chief of staff, but there is no obvious candidate to replace her, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday, adding it was not clear on when Nielsen would leave.”

  7. Meanwhile in NSW, the banjo players are warming up for the coming election with their traditional backstabbing….


    The Nationals descended into full-blown civil war last night with ex-leader Troy Grant making an astonishing rebuke of his successor Deputy Premier John Barilaro over his public airing of the party’s dirty laundry.

    Mr Grant, who is the Police Minister, told a private Nationals party room meeting that Mr Barilaro had “compromised the integrity of the party” by making claims in The Daily Telegraph that some of his colleagues had tried to use a cancer scare to launch a “strike” against him.‘

    ……….

    He also said he didn’t believe the coup claims. Mr Grant would not comment yesterday on the criticism.

    It came as former federal Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce backed Mr Barilaro strongly. “I’ll tell you this how works. You got snipers, you got targets and you got bullets,” Mr Joyce told 2GB.

    “Snipers don’t really care … they try to stay hidden or they try to stay protected. Targets are any political figure who they want to get rid of.’’

    http://outline.com/Nw4HPq

  8. Mueller expected to issue more indictments soon: report

    Special counsel Robert Mueller is expected to issue more indictments in the coming days as acting Attorney General Matthew Whitaker settles into his new role overseeing Mueller’s investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election, CBS News reported Tuesday.

    https://thehill.com/policy/national-security/416389-mueller-expected-to-issue-more-indictments-soon-report#.W-rlxBwsB2w.twitter

  9. Trump Runs Away When Asked About CNN Suing Him

    Trump was asked at the end of the video above about the CNN lawsuit, and all he said was, “We’ll be talking about,” and then he walked out of the room. Trump only runs away when the news and the publicity are bad. When he thinks he can twist something to his advantage, he has no issue with talking to reporters.

    The president’s flight out of the room, along with the White House’s changing story for why they banned Acosta are signs that they never expected this sort of backlash when they tried to punish a reporter.

    https://www.politicususa.com/2018/11/13/trump-cnn-lawsuit.html

  10. Nice to see PJK getting stuck into John Daley.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-13/keating-says-raising-super-to-12-per-cent-will-barely-cut-it/10494226

    Daley, who I understand to be a one-time practitioner of Satan’s work (sorry, correction, a former McKinsey’s management consultant), has been spruiking what both I and PJK see as a ludicrous claim that the current 9.5 per cent super guarantee will have most Australians absolutely rolling in dough in their retirement and that the 12 per cent guarantee is completely unnecessary and a waste of taxpayers’ money. In response, Keating stated that Daley “doesn’t get it with his miserable view about having the two Australias. The privileged Australia where the wealthy people can have all sorts of assets but ordinary people are condemned to the pension. This is $460 a week. I mean don’t whoop it up on 460 bucks a week. This is the John Daley view of the world.”

    I would assume that Daley has a very comfortable retirement savings arrangement organised which will provide him with a fair bit more than $460 per week. And that’s what strikes me about the sort of argument we are currently seeing from the likes of Daley and Peter Mares.

    https://www.textpublishing.com.au/books/no-place-like-home-repairing-australia-s-housing-crisis

    Baby boomers Daley and Mares are arguing that Australian middle class people like them have had it far too good for too long and now it’s time for a change. I hear Mares say in a recent radio interview that he personally had done well out of investing in housing and that this wasn’t fair and the rules therefore need to be changed.

    Some people who have done really well conclude that they have an obligation to help others by donating a substantial proportion of their wealth to the Smith Family or Oxfam or whoever. But Daley and Mares appear to have a different approach: they are pushing for changes to the rules that will effectively mean that the generations coming after them won’t have the same opportunities they have had to accumulate wealth and enjoy comfortable retirements. Having climbed up the ladder, they wish to pull it up behind them and deny access to others.

    I’m with PJK on this issue. What the less well off need most is not more and more welfare handouts, but an opportunity to improve their lot in life.

  11. Good Morning Bludgers 🙂

    I wonder if American Conservative careerists are starting to get the impression yet that it’s not a good move to throw in your lot with Donald J.Trump? The guy’s a user and an abuser. He gives those American serial killers who have genius IQs a run for their money! Doesn’t make him competent though. He keeps getting caught with his bodies’ blood on his hands.

  12. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Ross Gittins explores the price we pay for decades of school funding based on religion. He’s right!
    https://www.smh.com.au/education/the-price-we-pay-for-decades-of-school-funding-based-on-religion-20181113-p50foy.html
    Dana McCauley reports that Pressure is mounting for Health Minister Greg Hunt to suspend the government’s My Health Record roll-out, with Labor to move a motion in the Senate today extending the opt-out period beyond tomorrow’s deadline.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-turns-up-the-heat-on-my-health-with-push-to-extend-deadline-20181113-p50fro.html
    A former Court of Appeals justice in Victoria, David Harper, tells us that we need a federal ICAC whose design must incorporate measures to ensure that the innocent do not become its victims but, once incorporated, the responsibility of creating effective mechanisms for combating the cancer of corruption becomes unavoidable. He says a weak anti-corruption agency would be the antithesis of what is urgently required.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/as-politicians-resist-a-federal-icac-australia-becomes-more-corrupt-20181112-p50fib.html
    A cool $8 million for a bunch of chairs? A lazy $3 billion of taxpayers’ finest being forked out to some accountants? For advice? What, exactly, are “strategic planning consultation services”? How are politicians and the public service spending our money? In the wake of weekend revelations in The Saturday Paper about Scott Morrison’s disclosure issues while heading up Tourism Australia, “Triskele” investigates AusTender.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/austender-scomos-transparency-fail-just-tip-of-iceberg/
    Stephen Koukoulas explains how Labor’s plans to revamp negative gearing could put a floor on house prices and lower rents. He says that running a scare campaign that the change to negative gearing take a sledgehammer to the housing market is misguided and is not underpinned by any facts on the issues that drive housing markets.
    https://thekouk.com/item/648-how-labor-s-plans-to-revamp-negative-gearing-could-put-a-floor-on-house-prices-and-lower-rents.html
    Michael Pasco is unconvinced that wages will grow much very soon and he doubts the budget forecasts.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2018/11/13/wages-growth-optimism/
    Subpoena? What subpoena? Michaelia Cash claims not to know union is dragging her ex-aide into court. Really, this woman is an absolute shocker!
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/11/13/michaelia-cash-surprised-by-aide-courtbound/
    The role of an elite police unit in the 2017 Bourke Street massacre is expected to come under intense scrutiny after it ignored repeated pleas from colleagues to help arrest James Gargasoulas in St Kilda and Elsternwick almost nine hours before the tragedy. Not good timing for Andrews.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/elite-police-unit-refused-to-help-arrest-gargasoulas-before-massacre-20181113-p50ft3.html
    Phil Coorey reports that the Australian-Indonesia Free Trade Agreement is unlikely to come into effect until well into next year, possibly beyond the federal election, after Indonesia’s Trade Minister confirmed there would be no deal while Australia considered moving its Israeli embassy to Jerusalem.
    https://outline.com/C5n3AF
    John Lord asks why is our fair dinkum Prime Minister developing the persona of a quick-talking vacuum cleaner door-to-door salesman from the 1940s.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/personality-politics-the-christian-and-the-chameleon,12096
    Now Trump has blasted the key US ally over its near defeat to Germany in two world wars, its wine industry and Macron’s approval ratings.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/the-bromance-is-over-trump-slams-macron-suggests-france-would-have-lost-wwi-20181114-p50fur.html
    Great! CNN has filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration over the revocation of press credentials for White House correspondent Jim Acosta.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/cnn-sues-white-house-over-revoked-credentials-of-journalist-20181114-p50fuq.html
    Anne Davies tells us that there is a groundswell in Warringah and – worryingly for Abbott – the disparate groups are coordinating.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/14/targeting-tony-abbott-inside-the-micro-campaigns-to-unseat-the-former-pm
    A Virgin Australia flight operations engineer who raised safety concerns with his superiors by alleging training manuals given to airline’s new Boeing 737 pilots failed to comply with federal regulations was sacked for alleged misconduct, documents show.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/nov/14/virgin-australia-engineer-sacked-for-alleged-misconduct-after-raising-safety-concerns
    Deborah Snow writes that up and down the NSW parliamentary corridors, MPs are no doubt scouring their memories and consciences, wondering if they too might be vulnerable to the airing of old secrets by adversaries under the cloak of privilege.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/power-and-privilege-metoo-takes-parliament-into-unchartered-waters-20181113-p50fu1.html
    Caitlin Fitzsimmons explains how an anxiety epidemic is gripping the world of work. She says it goes much further than the rise in casual employment and gig economy.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/an-anxiety-epidemic-is-gripping-the-world-of-work-20181113-p50frg.html
    Jennifer Hewett writes that blunt political tactics aimed at a domestic audience can rebound against Australia’s broader interests. Scott Morrison will have to play international statesman this week in increasingly difficult terrain.
    https://outline.com/bf3GwH
    Nicholas Stuart reports on what a mess the new submarine program is heading towards.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/our-new-submarines-undecided-and-underwater-20181113-p50fqa.html
    It says a lot about the Liberal party as it looks like Jim Molan will get the top spot on the NSW Senate ticket.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/liberal-factions-in-new-contest-over-nsw-senate-ticket-20181113-p50ft0.html
    Michelle Grattan writes about the Lowy Institute’s executive director, Michael Fullilove, saying that Australia should be prepared to take a more forthright stand with President Trump, and to help craft a new international group of middle powers.
    https://theconversation.com/prepare-to-be-forthright-with-trump-michael-fullilove-106804
    Malcolm Turnbull’s much-anticipated Q&A interview last week was riddled with untruths. But who knew? Alan Austin shows why this is important.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/turnbulls-final-fantasies-why-they-matter,12092
    Manufacturing and media networking specialist, Peter Roberts, reports on the threat to Australia’s economic future by the Coalition’s failure to support innovation. In 2015, former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull welcomed us to the “ideas boom”, launching a National Innovation and Science Agenda to drive smart ideas that would create business growth, local jobs and global success. The boom was soon revealed as a “bust” and the government’s failure to deliver has seen Australia seriously sink down its rankings on the Global Innovation Index.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/lack-of-leadership-on-innovation-threatens-australias-economic-future/
    Sally Whyte tells us that the secret report that shows he benefit of contractors over the APS may not stay secret.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/greens-to-push-for-release-of-centrelink-outsourcing-report-20181112-p50flj.html
    The NSW Police Association’s Oliver Behrens says that it fears a return to bloodied brawls in Sydney streets as licencing laws look like being relaxed.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/i-fear-a-return-to-bloodied-brawls-on-sydney-s-streets-20181113-p50fmz.html
    In light of Michelle Guthrie’s accusation about Milne’s inappropriate touching Jacqui Maley explores just what does make a touch inappropriate.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/when-is-a-touch-just-a-touch-20181113-p50frf.html
    Margaret Simons says good riddance to Guthrie and Milne. The ABC needs grown-ups in charge.
    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2018/nov/13/good-riddance-to-guthrie-and-milne-the-abc-needs-grown-ups-in-charge
    Scott Phillips looks at the fortunes of Australia’s top retailers as the important Christmas period dawns.
    https://www.smh.com.au/money/investing/retailers-christmas-kogan-myer-jbhifi-festive-20181113-p50fqb.html
    This is interesting. Robert Mueller is seeking more information about Nigel Farage for his investigation into Russian interference in US politics, according to a target of the inquiry who expects to be criminally charged.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/nov/13/nigel-farage-mueller-russia-investigation-trump-latest-jerome-corsi-claim
    Stephen Bartholomeusz tells us that if we were looking for an explanation as to why the Australian dollar has fallen nearly 10 US cents since January, we wouldn’t have to look much further than China.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/there-s-a-reason-the-aussie-dollar-and-renminbi-are-locked-together-20181113-p50fp8.html
    Australia is singled out as a country with strong potential for new hydrogen production facilities in the latest World Energy Outlook, which paints an uncertain future for coal exports and strong projected growth for solar power.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/13/global-report-highlights-australias-renewables-potential-amid-mixed-signals-for-coal
    Meanwhile the Clean Energy Regulator has cancelled six contracts from the government’s emissions reduction fund because they did not deliver the necessary cuts to carbon emissions. Labor and the Greens say the move is a sign the policy should be abandoned.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/13/emissions-reduction-fund-contracts-worth-24m-cancelled-after-failure-to-deliver-cuts
    Economics lecturer Cameron Murray explains the bad economics behind swapping stamp duty for land tax.
    https://theconversation.com/stamp-duty-fever-the-bad-economics-behind-swapping-stamp-duty-for-land-tax-106841
    South Australian taxpayers could be on the hook for $291 million in debt owed by Port Pirie smelter owner Nyrstar, as the company’s share price plunges and doubts about its future grow, Treasurer Rob Lucas has warned.
    https://outline.com/VeTfTF
    Why do wildfires seem to be escalating? Despite president Donald Trump’s tweet that the California fires were caused by “gross mismanagement” of forests, the answer is more complex, nuanced, and alarming.
    https://theconversation.com/the-bitter-lesson-of-the-californian-fires-106842
    Cara Waters reports that the Morrison government is flagging imminent action to ensure lending to small business continues as bank funding tightens further in the wake of the financial services royal commission.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/small-business/the-system-is-broken-government-poised-on-small-business-fund-20181113-p50frp.html
    The Australian says that Frydenberg will launch a $2bn government-backed intervention into the $300bn SME lending market.
    https://outline.com/k2mMAq
    Richo tells us how across the Western world, a crisis of leadership is deepening.
    https://www.outline.com/XANPYq
    Woodside boss Peter Coleman has some advice for politicians including a call for clarity on tax reform and global co-operation on carbon pricing.
    https://www.outline.com/7yUPmu
    Henrietta Cook explains how Deakin University sanctioned an undercover operation on contract cheating.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/academics-go-undercover-to-spot-the-telltale-signs-of-a-cheater-20181113-p50fng.html
    After yesterday’s Federal Court decision Elizabeth Knight tells us that ASIC looks like a Keystone corporate cop.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/why-asic-looks-like-a-keystone-corporate-cop-20181113-p50fpo.html
    The AFR says that ASIC does not need to take Westpac Banking Corp to court to force it to introduce tougher lending standards but it almost certainly will do so.
    https://outline.com/B3GVFf
    Theresa May has agreed to a draft Brexit deal with the European Union but she must still get it through her cabinet and the deeply divided parliament.
    https://www.outline.com/BnUDbA
    How Sarah Sanders became Trump’s liar-in-chief.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/nov/13/sarah-sanders-lies-white-house-female-face
    Bloomberg explains how a three-minute conversation on stage at UBS’s Global Technology Conference in San Francisco helped wipe more than $US190 billion from global stocks.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/the-three-minute-chat-that-wiped-billions-off-stocks-20181113-p50ft7.html
    And for “Arsehole of the Week” we have . . .
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/tinder-rapist-back-behind-bars-after-alleged-snapchat-victim-taunts-20181113-p50fu6.html

    Cartoon Corner

    Davide Rowe checks in Morrison’s baggage as he heads off to Indonesia.

    Peter Broelman goes shopping for terrorists.

    Glen Le Lievre with gun violence in America.

    An even better one from Alan Moir.

    And Moir launches into the blue bus!

    Jon Kudelka with a very ScoMo Christmas.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/8ff7108e048f4f362437395540e2cc56
    David Pope gives the blue bus another run.
    https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_828/t_resize_width/t_sharpen%2Cq_auto%2Cf_auto/0220b83784d515a14b287bdc1f53af595d923941
    More in here.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-november-14-2018-20181113-h17uck.html

  13. ‘Now, whether one believes that CO2 is plant food, vital for the health of the planet where the climate has been changing since the beginning of time, or whether one falls into the “Al Gore camp” living a state of nervousness because Armageddon is just over the horizon, it remains important that we deal with today’s realities and the impact of climate change.’

    Fierravanti-Wells being balanced about climate change.

    ‘It is therefore regrettable that our good work and practical support for the Pacific has been recently damaged by an Environment Minister on “L-plates” throughthe unfortunate incidentwith former President Tong of Kiribati. It demonstrated a lack of diplomacy, understanding and respect for one of our nearest neighbours.’

    OMFG.

    I mean, I don’t disagree with her, but….

    Oh, hang on – – it’s because of the awesomeness of Melissa Price’s predecessor in the role —

    ‘While there may have been differences of opinion on issues during my tenure as minister for international development and the Pacific, I found that respect and diplomacy can sit alongside frank and forthright discussion.’

    Yep, that sounds like the Concetta I know. And her comments about Price simply reek of respect and diplomacy…

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/world/oceania/good-work-damaged-by-minister-on-l-plates-but-here-s-how-to-help-our-neighbours-20181113-p50fpj.html

  14. Good Morning

    @SenatorSiewert tweets
    The community is sick of savings measures coming from the people in the community with the least while the major parties donors and big corporations get away with evading their tax responsibility or paying no tax at all #greens #auspol #foodbank #raisetherate

    I think this nails it. It won’t get the Greens out of the mess they are in but this is the political landscape we are in.

    In Kansas they voted Democrats precisely because they experienced tax cuts.

    Edit: I should add the voter fraud panel Kobach was involved in had something to do with it too.

  15. The Grattan Institute’s researchers are absolutely right to oppose any increase in compulsory superannuation contributions. These contributions are a drain on the living standards of Australians. Paul Keating’s policy of compulsory superannuation was never justified in the first place.

    I agree completely with the analysis of compulsory superannuation that Warwick Smith of Per Capita shared in his piece in The Monthly on 24th March 2015.

    https://www.themonthly.com.au/blog/warwick-smith/2015/24/2015/1427165371/super-con

    The challenge of provisioning people who are not working is not a financial problem at all. The federal government can always keystroke whatever Australian dollar payments it wants to make to anyone it chooses to pay. The claim that compulsory superannuation was necessary to “reduce federal spending on the pension” and “avoid future tax rises to fund increased pension spending” was always a spurious claim. In reality, compulsory super creates a vast captive market for the financial services sector. This situation has led to complacency, greed, fraud, and waste on the part of superannuation providers, particularly the retail funds. The ongoing Royal Commission into the banking sector highlights these obscene problems.

    The relevant question is whether retirees and other people dependent on savings, annuities, and government payments will have access to the real goods and real services that they will need for a good life. The question is whether the money in their bank accounts will actually buy them the things they need when they need them. Money won’t be the constraint. The nation’s productive capacity will be the constraint.

  16. A pattern emerging as the polling drifts alarmingly for the LNP. Morrison and Co. are reacting in a knee-jerk manner to a number of important but less significant issues and steadfastly refusing to address issues that matter to the majority of voters.
    Climate change policy and action is overwhelmingly deemed to be of emergency like importance to the scientific community and others. LNP reaction, denial!
    Water security, LNP reaction, vested interests! Nauru, LNP reaction, hide it from the voters! Housing affordability, LNP reaction, confuse the issue and pander to the developers and wealthy! Falling taxation revenue, LNP reaction, grant reductions in corporate tax rates! Banking corruption, LNP reaction,give them a warning! Retail superannuation fraud, LNP reaction, blams the unions for incredibly successful industry funds! Increasing electricity costs, LNP reaction, blame renewable sources!
    I’ve commented many times that Australians are very forgiving. At the rate this Morrison government is going, some drastic action may be required to get the LNP to listen, and remember those that vote.

  17. Nicholas

    There is a reason people like Super instead of taxes for the Pension.

    With the latter you have to trust politicians to ensure you have enough money for you retirement income.

    Quite sensibly Australians don’t trust the politicians. So they prefer Super.

    Of course we should be having pensions as part of a UBI that are comfortable to live on and that is compatible with Super. Thats how Mr Keating can still support his great Super idea and say neo liberalism is dead.

    Mr Keating has shown we are right not to trust politicians especially the LNP ones when it comes to retirement income. However Super is a bandaid at best.
    The real problem is the whole way we approach Aging in our society which is so youth oriented.

    In my view we need to look at health the finance sector the aged industry in a wholistic fashion.

    When we do this that means good transport planning. A good and real NBN. More preventative health approaches a clean environment so people don’t build up toxic pollution in their lungs or toxins in food and water.

    Labor offers the best chance to change direction from the Greed is good and money is everything including overriding environmental laws. We may actually start down the path where instead of saying its safe until proven otherwise we assume pesticides soft drinks etc are damaging to our health until proven otherwise.

    We manage to do it for medications in a good way. We have a false economy of not doing this with food transport and the like. This ethos was stark in the US which is the extreme example with Flint Michigan and the Exxon Valdez and Gulf of Mexico environmental disasters. Our whole approach to coal.

    We will never reach 100% safety for very practical reasons. By doing this but we should at least reverse that burden of proof and put people before the economy as its the economy that is supposed to work for us. That is I know that the culture is so entrenched it will take years to reverse this mindset.

    This is where I see the “mainstream” thinking as ridiculous. Its that thinking that got us to the point we have a climate emergency. The same thinking that gave us the tobacco industry. It needs to change.
    Its going to be a very long haul and if we ever get there on which I have strong doubts given how society is structured today I think the first step is to get Labor in so we stop having a government ignoring experts like scientists.

    Edit: I should make clear I don’t know if Mr Keating supports a UBI and not claiming he does. Just that there is no contradiction with supporting his Super idea and saying neo liberalism is dead.

  18. Good morning all.

    Thanks BK for your morning Dawn Patrol.
    Plenty of stuff to peruse. In particular – for me ——

    The role of an elite police unit in the 2017 Bourke Street massacre is expected to come under intense scrutiny after it ignored repeated pleas from colleagues to help arrest James Gargasoulas in St Kilda and Elsternwick almost nine hours before the tragedy. Not good timing for Andrews.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/elite-police-unit-refused-to-help-arrest-gargasoulas-before-massacre-20181113-p50ft3.html

    I think I need to work on obtaining a working device that will bend light (and also ludicrous and ridiculous information) around me. This will have the effect that when I am confronted with information such as:-

    CIRT is a specialised team of heavily armed officers that responds to potentially high-risk incidents involving dangerous or armed offenders considered beyond the capabilities of regular police.

    CIRT again denied the request because police could not be sure Gargasoulas was armed. It also said the team was not responsible for vehicle intercepts and that it could not perform an arrest unless the target was already contained within a police cordon.

    I can then tell myself in the words of a long ago friend Barry (Fingers*) XXX. “Quite Normal”.

    Which I translate the above to mean –

    You round him up, keep under control and we will then arrest/shoot him.

    Wot – no scones with strawberry jam and cream ❓

    I’m sure that a lot has been lost in the translation/transmission of this story. What to make of claims of special units on standby to arrive on scene at the speed of a black helicopter in similar cases – I dunno – I await enlightenment grasshoppers.

    * Fingers – because during a night of carousing and hilarity somebody wanted an exhaust fan stopped – Barry stopped it by putting his hand in the whirling blades.

  19. I largely share your view on super Nicholas – at least in an ideal, or more ideal, world in which there is generous public provision of retirement benefits. One positive development within the current system has been the growth of the not for profit industry fund sector, recently accelerated by the Banking Royal Commission. It has resulted in a substantial and growing pool of investable funds being under the control of organisations outside the traditional financial institutional sector – although a substantial portion of those funds are ultimately invested through institutional asset managers. At least we are not seeing the large financial institutions clipping the ticket at every point in the chain. Also I have the impression that the Socially Responsible Investment movement in Australia owes much of its strength to the influence of industry funds.

  20. Britain has struck a draft divorce deal with the European Union after more than a year of talks, thrusting Prime Minister Theresa May into a perilous battle over Brexit that could shape her country’s prosperity for generations to come.

    The British cabinet will meet at 2pm local time on Wednesday to consider the draft withdrawal agreement, a Downing Street spokesman said after Irish and British media were leaked details of the breakthrough. By seeking to leave the EU while preserving the closest possible ties, May’s compromise plan has upset Brexiteers, pro-Europeans, Scottish nationalists, the Northern Irish party that props up her government, and some of her own ministers.

    To get the deal approved she needs the votes of about 320 MPs in the 650-seat parliament. She will have a mountain to climb.

    Prominent Brexiteers such as Conservative MP Jacob Rees-Mogg and former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson said May had sold out the UK and that they would oppose it.

    “It is a failure of the government’s negotiating position, it is a failure to deliver on Brexit, and it is potentially dividing up the United Kingdom,” Conservative lawmaker Jacob Rees-Mogg said.

    The opposition Labour Party, which has said it would oppose any agreement that does not retain “the exact same” economic benefits that it now has with the EU, said it was unlikely the announced deal was right for Britain.

    “It is vassal state stuff,” Johnson said, adding that he would vote against such an unacceptable accord. “Chuck it out.”

  21. max

    Keating’s Super reforms came in as part of neo liberal economic thinking. However where its not neo liberal is the whole industry funds idea.

    Mr Keating never as far as I know had the finance industry doing the super instead. It was always about giving the workers the means to access an income stream in the same way as the rich did.

    Thats what I understand his original reform as. I could be wrong and happy to be corrected.

  22. So Trump responds only to natural disasters in states that voted for him? Disgraceful. Let’s hope come 2020 when his name will be on the ballots that people in red and purple states think twice about voting Republican.

    Days after Hurricane Florence rammed into the North Carolina coast, President Trump was on his way to comfort those who lost homes or loved ones. He met with the state’s Democratic governor; he sat for a briefing; he paused to ask residents in New Bern: “Hi, everybody, how’s your house?”

    When Hurricane Harvey pummeled Texas last year, he traveled to Houston, and when Hurricane Michael hit Florida and Georgia last month, he and the first lady quickly went to the Gulf Coast.

    But as California has convulsed in tragedy — a mass shooting and an outbreak of wildfires that included the deadliest in the state’s history — the president has not only offered little comfort; he has also heaped on criticism. He’s blamed the forest fires on “gross mismanagement,” threatened to withhold federal payments and instructed officials there: “Get Smart!”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/president-trump-again-blames-california-for-a-natural-disaster-adding-to-his-public-denunciations-of-the-strongly-democratic-state/2018/11/12/811626de-e6ab-11e8-bbdb-72fdbf9d4fed_story.html?utm_term=.d20c0cbaca64

  23. It will be fascinating to see how the UK BREXIT team has dealt with the Ireland border issue without massive howls of rage from one faction or another – especially as she must satisfy the DUP who are keeping her in power.

  24. bool

    I don’t think Brexit is possible with a “frictionless” border.

    Not with all the politics surrounding it.

    I think a second referendum will happen. I think the British public having seen the reality will vote to rejoin the EU.

    The UK had some good concerns about the EU project but leaving instead of reforming was a bad way to go in my view.

    This is reinforced by the whole Russia Farage thing. May’s problem is she is trying to pretend Cameron bringing on the first referendum was the right thing to do.

  25. Nicholas – “The federal government can always keystroke whatever Australian dollar payments it wants to make to anyone it chooses to pay.”
    We have seen how well that works for people on the dole and Centrelink benefits and the ‘robocalls’ fiasco. Any future LMNP Govt. would have no qualms attacking such ‘entitled’ people and their ‘benefits’ as a waste of good money, when they could be subsidising a coal-fired power plant instead.

  26. Bool

    This is why I support a UBI. It would mean the LNP would be attacking their pensioner base as bludgers 🙂

    I think this is the reason Tony Abbott went from supporting to opposing a UBI. The politics is very bad for them.

    Edit: Once a UBI is successfully in place that is. Not before.

  27. On the Arizona Senate race.

    Fourth, how McSally lost is as important as the loss itself. The Post reports, “McSally lost the race after abandoning the moderate profile she had nurtured in her 2014 congressional race and allying herself with Trump. The former Air Force combat pilot adopted an aggressive tone, accusing Sinema of supporting treason over her 2003 remark that it was ‘fine’ if a radio host who was asking her a question joined the Taliban.” The lesson here for Republicans should be that unless you are in deep-red states, waving the bloody flag on immigration is a loser.

    Fifth, exits polls in the race showed Sinema hung on to a high percentage of white voters (44 percent) and won big with Hispanics (69 percent), white college graduates (53 percent), white college-educated women (55 percent), voters 18 to 44 years old (59 percent), and voters who ranked health care as the most important issue (77 percent). That sort of coalition succeeded for Democrats in a previously red state — and in races all across the country. When looking at presidential candidate, Democratic primary voters should consider who has the ability to put together that kind of coalition.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/opinions/wp/2018/11/13/what-democrats-big-win-in-arizona-means/?utm_term=.d2a058ac8ebb

  28. @jonkudelka
    2m2 minutes ago

    I look forward to Scott weighing in on the onion / sausage / bread controversy. This strikes at the heart of the nation’s democracy.

  29. A UBI @ $20,000 for 20,000,000 people would be around $400,000,000,000.

    The total annual Budget ATM is around $378,000,000,000.

    In other words, the UBI would need to find an extra $22 billion.

    And all other education, health, transport, housing, defence and science funding would have to stop.

  30. lizzie

    Yep the media are onto it. Calling it BunningsGate on ABCbNews Breakfast.

    FWIW I think rolls are for hot dogs not sausages. WA can secede over it if it wishes 🙂

  31. “Keating’s Super reforms came in as part of neo liberal economic thinking”

    Just bullshit. Industrial scale merde.

    Debate the issue please Guytaur without resorting to your default meaningless labelling of things you don’t like or don’t understand as “neoliberal”.

    In no way does compulsory superannuation, underpinned by an aged pension fit within any of many definitions of neoliberalism that you cut and paste from Wikipedia.

  32. BW

    A UBI is practical and can be funded. It has more real practical evidence from the so far not completed trials. The IMF thinks its a practical idea.

    Tax the corporations is the answer.

    Your perennial we must choose is the same as the LNP with its Foodbank mantra.
    Just fund Welfare properly like we used to so the whole Foodbank concept goes.

    Reject neoliberalism. We need to fund services and thats through taxes on corporations. The whole world is looking at this for a reason. The Democrats have it as policy in California. So does the right wing Italian Government. So it crosses the political divide.

    You may hate it but is not the impractical dreaming and ridiculous bottom of the garden fairytale stuff you try and make it out to be.

  33. In the article about the contretemps in the NSW Liberals wrt the Senate voting ticket order of candidates, Jim Molan is quoted as having sent out a letter to the delegates who will be voting for the ticket, proudly proclaiming his belief that Climate Change isn’t real.

    If you don’t laugh, you cry. Fair dinkum.

  34. guytaur: “Keating’s Super reforms came in as part of neo liberal economic thinking. However where its not neo liberal is the whole industry funds idea. Mr Keating never as far as I know had the finance industry doing the super instead. It was always about giving the workers the means to access an income stream in the same way as the rich did. Thats what I understand his original reform as. I could be wrong and happy to be corrected.”

    Like most of the Hawke-Keating government’s thinking, the super changes came from a strong drive to reform the Australian economy to produce:

    1) a freer and more competitive market which would direct much more of its investment towards creating lucrative and sustainable jobs;
    2) a much higher standard of living for working people, through better jobs, higher wages and a wide range of social expenditures (Medicare, better family payments, superannuation, investment in education, etc); and
    3) an improved social safety net which would provide a higher standard of living for those past working age or genuinely unable to work, but which would enhance both the obligation of able-bodied working age to find work and also the targeted assistance they need to enter the labour market.

    On the whole, I thought they did a superb job at addressing these goals. While I neither understand or accept the term “neo-liberalism”, if it means what Hawke and Keating delivered to Australians, then I’m all for it.

    As you rightly point out, the goal of the superannuation reforms was to give working people increased certainty and control over the resources they need to sustain them in retirement. Like much of what Keating and Hawke were on about, it was focused on empowering people who are lower down the socio-economic ladder. It stands in contrast to a lot of what we hear from the chardonnay left nowadays, including people like John Daley, which seems to me to be more of a guilt-driven demand for the Government to exercise a kind of noblesse oblige on behalf of the nation by forcibly taking wealth from those who have accumulated it it and giving it to the poor through welfare payments.

    The more you strengthen the welfare system, the more you lock in a growing part of the community into a state of permanent dependence on a subsistence level of income. That was PJK’s point. George Bernard Shaw put the same point a different way when he wrote that he absolutely hated the poor and wanted to do away with them altogether.

  35. Andrew Earlwood

    n Australia, neoliberal economic policies (known at the time as “economic rationalism”[51] or “economic fundamentalism”) were embraced by governments of both the Labor Party and the Liberal Party since the 1980s. The Labor governments of Bob Hawke and Paul Keating from 1983-96 pursued economic liberalisation and a program of micro-economic reform. These governments privatised government corporations, deregulated factor markets, floated the Australian dollar and reduced trade protection.[52]

    Keating, as federal treasurer, implemented a compulsory superannuation guarantee system in 1992 to increase national savings and reduce future government liability for old age pensions.[53] The financing of universities was deregulated, requiring students to contribute to university fees through a repayable loan system known as the Higher Education Contribution Scheme (HECS) and encouraging universities to increase income by admitting full-fee-paying students, including foreign students.[54] The admission of domestic fee-paying students to public universities was abolished in 2009 by the Rudd Labor government.[55]

    Immigration to the mainland capitals by refugees had seen capital flows follow soon after, such as from war-torn Lebanon and Vietnam. Latter economic-migrants from mainland China also, up to recent restrictions, had invested significantly in the property markets.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neoliberalism

    You may hate the reality but it was an era of neo liberal thinking

  36. I am always troubled by ‘labels’ as they either have positive or negative connotations (depending on in which camp you sit). Oft-times good policy is ‘labelled’ according to who makes a pitch for it rather than the content of the actual policy … and then the argument is skewed.

    We have seen this with asylum seeker, climate and energy policies, over and again, in the past 10-15 years here and elsewhere.

    Tribalism and labeling go hand-in-hand … and good policy suffers

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