YouGov Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor in Mordialloc, 51-49 in Frankston

Two Victorian election seat polls suggest a repeat of cliffhanger results from 2014.

The Herald Sun has two YouGov Galaxy seat polls for the Victorian election, these being robopolls conducted from sample of around 550 on Saturday and Sunday. Both target bellwether seats in the “sandbelt”, and both land bang on their 2014 election results. Labor leads 52-48 in Mordialloc (52.1-47.9 in 2014), from primary votes of Labor 41% (38.7%), Liberal 42% (43.8%), Greens 7% (7.9%). In Frankston, Labor clings to a 51-49 lead in a seat where they won 50.5-49.5 in 2014, but there is substantial movement on the primary vote, owing to a weaker independent presence this time. Labor is on 42%, up from 35.0%; the Liberals are on 43%, up from 35.8%, while the Greens are on 6%, down from 8.0%.

Also out today were the Legislative Council group ticket votes, on which I have a separate thread

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

104 comments on “YouGov Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor in Mordialloc, 51-49 in Frankston”

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  1. BSF

    After the failed Dutton coup I was very bullish on these seats which Deakin overlays.

    But I was sort of hoping to see Sukkar up and about. Instead he seems to be in hiding or as someone suggested here “witness protection”. Clearly these candidates would probably prefer Morrison or even his empty bus rather than being seen with Sukkar.

    So I think Labor will go close in them and may pick up one, but I think Deakin itself is definitely on the table next year.

  2. Steve Price just announcing that Andrews and Guy will be having a kind of debate in the seat of Frankston next week. Anyone else heard anything about that?

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