BludgerTrack: 54.7-45.3 to Labor

After a dire result from Newspoll, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate is hardly better for the Coalition than it was immediately after the leadership coup.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with this week’s Newspoll and the YouGov Galaxy poll from Queensland, the effect of which is to add another half a point to Labor’s two-party preferred vote for a gain of only one seat, that being in Western Australia. The Queensland poll, which was a relatively good result for the Coalition, negated the effect of Newspoll in that state. Newspoll’s leadership ratings resulted in little change in the trend readings – no doubt it would have been a different story if I had a net satisfaction series for Scott Morrison, who did particularly badly in Newspoll, but there is still too little data for that to be feasible.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

995 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.7-45.3 to Labor”

  1. Compulsory super is “neo-liberalism”????

    Jesus christ!!!

    The Greens have gone bananas! Has the need to try and justify the retention of a dude who was rapping about date rape and dv just a few years back sent them completely bonkas?

  2. meher baba,
    George Bernard Shaw put the same point a different way when he wrote that he absolutely hated the poor and wanted to do away with them altogether.

    Interesting quote to reference. However, whether you like it or not, the poor will always be with us, for one reason or another, and need to be provided for in a just and fair society.

  3. UBI – $160 billion a year in extra taxes.

    Every year.

    Every taxpayer would pay $200 a week extra to pay the unemployed/retired in society to live the standard of those with current jobs.

    Those who are happy to do that step forward.

  4. Baba

    I have said before and I think I need to repeat. Economic theory is fine. It comes apart real fast in the real world. All that “All things being equal” precisely because bad as it is economic theory is the best we have.
    Out of that Keynes was the best in the practical world we have used so far.

    Thus yes Keating put in a neo liberal thinking idea with Super. However as I noted by going with Industry Funds Keating was not doing pure neo liberalism and was in fact as you acknowledge providing certainly for workers.

    Thats not pure neo liberal thinking like that of the LNP which is the point I was trying to make.
    Even if it was a neo liberal policy to privatise pensions.

    There is such a thing as nuance. 🙂

  5. The Greens really have lost the plot. Today you also have a female NSW Green, Cate Faehrmann, supporting a male NSW Green, Jeremy Buckingham, who has been accused by 2 other female NSW Greens, an MP and a Senator, of inappropriate sexual conduct towards a female Greens’ employee!

  6. Holden Hillbilly

    Nope. Corporations would be paying not every taxpayer. You know those corporations that don’t pay tax now.

    All those billions that go overseas without any money coming to Australia. Thats additional income we don’t tax now.
    We shall see how Italy and California go won’t we.

  7. As for the idea of a UBI: if someone can explain to me clearly what they mean by it and exactly problem it is meant to solve, then I might be interested in it. Some economists seem to promote it predominantly as a means of eliminating any possible financial disincentive to work on the part of welfare recipients. But the Greens et al seem to perceive it as a way of providing more income support to people at the bottom of the scale.

    As I understand it, a UBI would be paid at exactly the same rate both to poor people, working people regardless of their income and even wealthy people living on their investments. If that’s what it is, then it’s a stupid waste of money. If it’s something other than this, then what is it? If it doesn’t involve paying welfare to the rich, then it isn’t a UBI in my book.

    The current Australian social security system has been greatly improved over the years in terms of the methodology through which payments cut out as people begin to earn more income from other sources. And this has been combined with a significant increase in the tax -free threshold. This system seems to me to be working really well and delivering much of what the proponents of a UBI claim for their idea.

    If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

  8. C@tmomma @ #60 Wednesday, November 14th, 2018 – 6:22 am

    Confessions @ #57 Wednesday, November 14th, 2018 – 9:20 am

    Am thinking there’s a reason university students are not allowed to cite Wikipedia in assignments…..

    I was never allowed to do it when I went back to Uni to do a Grad Dip Ed. I had to cite every reference and Wikipedia was not allowed to be one of them.

    Same here. Wikipedia is useful for issues of fact, eg Trump was elected in 2016. But definitions to describe positions or issues that are contestable or subjective is another thing altogether.

  9. “Am thinking there’s a reason university students are not allowed to cite Wikipedia in assignments…..”

    lols

    Am also thinking that “neoliberal” is Guytaur’s new Godwin’s law: the point in his posts where he gives the game away (he doesn’t actually understand the issue) and thereby loses the argument entirely (even with folk that may otherwise generally agree with the thrust of his position).

  10. I am not sure about this onion thing at sausage sizzles – surely it is better to just hand them out raw for people to eat; after all one of our recent PMs set a fine example in raw onion eating and he did not slip (at least, not on the onions)

  11. The problem with Wikipedia is it is not an original source … sometimes it is correct but it cannot be relied upon.

    Same as the coalition govt, really 😆

  12. Andrew Earlwood

    No you are in denial about the definition of neo liberalism.

    I have never said Labor is pure neo liberal. In fact the definition I posted doesn’t say it either.

    Like it or not though its very clear that neo liberalism is the economic theory that Thatcher Reagan and Greenspan pursued.

    You can dismiss Wikipedia all you like as a source. However it does not change that definition no matter how much you dismiss it and try and make out I don’t understand it.

  13. A departing Republican congress representative wonders what happened in his deeply conservative district.

    In June, after winning three straight elections to the House of Representatives from South Carolina, I lost my primary race to Katie Arrington, who in turn lost last week’s general election to Joe Cunningham, a Democrat. After the general election, Ms. Arrington immediately blamed me for her loss because I did not endorse her.

    While it’s human nature to blame someone, what happened here is far bigger than any postelection spin, given that it has been more than 40 years since a Democrat has held this seat, which runs along South Carolina’s coast and leans Republican by 10 points. In fact, there was not a more conservative district in the country to flip to the Democrats.

    For this reason, I think the race offers a chance for conservative soul-searching, and I say this as a committed conservative, who just happens not to be Trump enough in the age of Trump.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/13/opinion/a-wake-up-call-for-the-gop.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

  14. c@tmomma: “The Greens really have lost the plot. Today you also have a female NSW Green, Cate Faehrmann, supporting a male NSW Green, Jeremy Buckingham, who has been accused by 2 other female NSW Greens, an MP and a Senator, of inappropriate sexual conduct towards a female Greens’ employee!”

    My care factor threshold re the Greens is pretty low, but my understanding of the facts of the case are this.

    1) Mr Buckingham’s actions have been subject to an inquiry and he was found not to have a case to answer.

    2) Mr Buckingham, like Ms Faehrmann is that relatively rare creature among the NSW Greens: a genuine environmentalist who is thereby an enemy of the watermelon brigade like Shoebridge and Rhiannon.

    3) Most of the push for Buckingham to go seems to be coming from the said watermelon brigade.

    4) RDN is certainly not a watermelon, so I’m not quite sure why he’s dipped his oar into the debate. Possibly he is concerned about wider damage to the party’s image coming from the allegations against Buckingham.

    I notice that, during the debate, someone – it might have been Senator Faruqi – made the comment, increasingly popular among the global far left that “you’ve got to believe the survivors.” What this means is that, regardless of the findings of any inquiry, police investigation, court case, etc., if a woman accuses a man of sexual harassment then she has to be believed.

    Except, of course if you’re Paula Jones, Kathleen Willey, etc. It seems to remain the case that very few people on the political left believes their stories.

  15. Nicholas

    With retirement in the not too distant future I see this equation. Pension + my modest (very) super balance= Not being on the bones of my arse , pension without that super= bones of arse. So I for one say thank you PJK and feck JWH for stopping the increase and double feck you to all Howard’s mates in the Spiv non industry sector of the Super ‘industry’.

  16. ‘guytaur says:
    Wednesday, November 14, 2018 at 9:08 am

    BW

    A UBI is practical and can be funded. It has more real practical evidence from the so far not completed trials. The IMF thinks its a practical idea.

    Tax the corporations is the answer.’

    Tax corporations an additional $350 billion a year?

  17. Roger
    says:
    Wednesday, November 14, 2018 at 9:18 am
    Wow, income contingent loans for university degrees are neo-liberalism as well?????
    _________________________________
    Well what else would you call the move away from the Whitlam era reforms to the HECS system ‘user pays’ model, except as the result of neo-liberal influence upon the Hawke government?

  18. My understanding of Steven Hail’s calculations of total labour productivity growth in Australia since 1970 is that there is a productivity-based case for the current minimum wage to be raised by 27 percent.

    The current Australian minimum wage for a permanent employee is $18.93 per hour. A casual employee is entitled to a 25 percent loading on top of this.

    For a full-time permanent employee an $18.93 hourly wage equates to $719.20 per week and $37,398.40 per year.

    Lifting the minimum wage by 27 percent would take the hourly minimum wage to $24.04.

    This equates to $913.38 per week and $47,495.97 per year.

    I propose a one-off increase in the minimum wage to $24.03 per hour (or $47,495.97 per year). This increase could be phased in to help employers to adjust to the change.

    I propose that the minimum wage should automatically be adjusted every year in line with the nation’s total labour productivity growth. Workers should not have to beg a technocratic body such as the Fair Work Commission for meager pay rises that result in their pay lagging behind total labour productivity growth.

    I believe that the Age Pension, the Disability Support Pension, and the Sickness Allowance are all far too low.

    I propose that all three of those income support payments be fixed at 75 percent of the full-time minimum wage.

    I propose 75 percent because before 2004 federal parliamentarians with 18 years of service or more were entitled to a defined benefit pension of 75 percent of a parliamentarian’s salary every year for the rest of their lives (with additional loadings for ministerial and prime ministerial service).

    The Age Pension, Disability Support Pension, and Sickness Allowance would automatically be adjusted in line with total labour productivity growth (just like the minimum wage). This would prevent the recipients of those payments from suffering falls in their material standard of living relative to the rest of the community.

    75 percent of $47,495.97 is $35,621.98.

    I am proposing that the Age Pension, the Disability Support Pension, and the Sickness Allowance (on a pro rata basis) should be $35,621.98 today.

    I propose that the Age Pension be available in full to everyone of pension age regardless of income or wealth or labour market status (but I would remove all tax deductions related to superannuation, real estate, and family trusts).

    In addition to these increases to the money wages of the lowest paid people in our community, I want to implement the following universal increases to the social wage.

    1. Implement zero out of pocket fees for health care (including dental care and pharmaceuticals), education and training at all levels (including very early childhood interventions), child care, aged care, disability support, and public transport.

    2. Abolish all tax deductions associated with real estate (to bring down land prices).

    3. Make massive federal government investments in public housing, community land trusts, and land rent schemes. I want those forms of housing to be available to at least 75 percent of the population.

    4. Make superannuation voluntary and abolish all tax deductions associated with superannuation.

    5. Abolish the favourable tax treatment of family trusts.

    6. Reduce energy and telecommunications prices by bringing all energy and telecommunications infrastructure into public ownership and making these services available to everyone at the lowest possible prices that are consistent with equitable and environmentally sustainable resource use.

    7. Reduce financial service prices by creating an Australian Government-owned retail bank.

    8. Introduce a Job Guarantee that makes an unconditional offer of minimum wage employment to anyone who wants it.

    9. Making satisfactory progress in education or training could be treated as a Job Guarantee job. This would make Austudy and the Youth Allowance obsolete. Caring for one’s own children, elderly relatives, or relatives with disabilities could also be treated as Job Guarantee jobs. This would make the Parenting Payment, the Carer’s Payment, and the various Family Tax Benefits obsolete.

    10. Make massive federal government investments in research and development (including the humanities, not just science, technology, engineering, and mathematics).

    11. Abolish patents. The federal government can pay private sector researchers a generous one-off lump sum for scientific discoveries and innovations. Most of the big scientific advances are made by publicly funded research anyway. Make all research findings publicly available immediately so that researchers and entrepreneurs all over the world can use them to inform their own work. This would recognize the collaborative nature of knowledge creation. It would accelerate advances in technology and know-how.

    There is a compelling moral and productivity-based case for big increases to both the minimum money wage and the universal social wage.

    We should not be using legislation to prop up a parasitic and unnecessary financial service (superannuation).

  19. mb

    ‘What this means is that, regardless of the findings of any inquiry, police investigation, court case, etc., if a woman accuses a man of sexual harassment then she has to be believed.’

    Indeed. There is no difference between ancient and modern witch trials.

  20. 4) RDN is certainly not a watermelon, so I’m not quite sure why he’s dipped his oar into the debate. Possibly he is concerned about wider damage to the party’s image coming from the allegations against Buckingham.

    By entering the debate in NSW he all but guarantees the national party is tainted by the allegations.

  21. guytaur @ #67 Wednesday, November 14th, 2018 – 9:26 am

    baba

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income

    Guytaur, economics 101;

    There were many economic problems for the Soviet Stalinist system. One very general problem was the lack of incentives for productivity. As anonymous Soviet citizen said

    They pretend to pay us and we pretend to work.
    The Russian economist, Grigory Yavlinsky, who ultimately became an important advisor to Mikhail Gorbachev, became convinced to the need for reform when he investigated the low productivity in the Soviet mines. He found the miners were not working because they had no incentives to work. Said Yavlinsky

    The Soviet system is not working because the workers are not working.
    (http://www.sjsu.edu/faculty/watkins/sovietcollapse.htm)

  22. Keating’s ability to explain complex issues in a way which everyone can understand remains unsurpassed. He always speaks directly and uses analogies which anyone can understand. It’s his greatest gift imo.

  23. No escape, the other people in the room with you are mostly nuts:
    As with other escape rooms, you have a certain amount of time to figure out how to get out. Also, you know that clues to the puzzle are hidden somewhere in the room. Figure them out and you’ll be able to unlock the door.

    But here’s the difference: the temperature in this room will go up a degree with every minute that passes. If you and those four strangers can’t figure out how to stop it from rising, you’ll succumb to heat stroke. In other words, if you don’t escape in the allotted time period, you’ll die.

    https://truthout.org/articles/will-this-climate-change-dystopia-have-a-sequel/

  24. Tom

    Universal Basic Income has shown people work. It dismantles the block that prevents the poor seeking supplemental income.

    It is NOT the Soviet system.

  25. “Well what else would you call the move away from the Whitlam era reforms to the HECS system ‘user pays’ model, except as the result of neo-liberal influence upon the Hawke government?”

    Income contingent loan supported contributions are the most progressive of university funding models

    The government takes the full real credit cost and income risk but asks people who are going to earn more money over their lifetime to make a contribution to their education. That is, people who overwhelmingly will earn more money over their lives courtesy of said degree.

    HECS also funded the expansion of the higher education system

    To call it “neo-liberalism” just highlights the dip-shittery of the Greens rusted ons. School vouchers are “neo-liberal”.

  26. The basic chasm inside the Greens is that half of them are gearing up for a thousand year ideological struggle.
    The other half would actually like to see some real progress on biodiversity protection and on global warming.
    The latter are being screwed by the former.

  27. With the midterms over it’s Mueller Time!!

    John SantucciVerified account@Santucci
    3h3 hours ago
    Sources close to President Trump tell @ABC News, the President had a long session with his legal team on Monday writing his responses to questions from Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s office – another round with his legal team is expected for later today.

  28. These days,Wikipedia is generally an excellent resource for information, however it usually only provides a broad overview. That’s great for getting up to speed on a topic you aren’t particularly familiar with, but you need to dig deeper if you want to be totally informed.

    I believe the main reason its not allowed as an academic source is because of the fact that anyone can edit it (even though incorrect or deliberately fake information tends to be corrected very quickly, there’s still always a chance, however small, that any article a student clicks onto is filled with nonsense at that point in time), and because not all Wikipedia articles are created equal – some are incredibly detailed and well researched, others brief and lacking in key details, and others still were once comprehensive but have not been updated in some time. In particular, topics that don’t have a bunch of knowledgeable Wikipedians willing to devote their time to fleshing them out often get ignored.

    In my Uni days, while we couldn’t cite Wikipedia, I did nonetheless find the website very useful for my initial research. Additional, since Wikipedia tends to have pretty strict citation guidelines itself, you can find lots of eligible sources to cite in your own work just by following the links.

  29. We have a contributor to these sites promoting that any capital gain consequent upon any sale of real estate property should be fully taxed away

    So, if you bought your residential address property in 1970, and you sold it in 2020 the consideration over and above the 1970 purchase price is remitted as tax to the Commonwealth

    And these people come into sites such as this peddling their abject nonsense

    Nonsense I have put before which is no doubt inspired by their personal circumstances and envy

    Their interest is not the homeless and others in our society in those circumstances for the raft of reasons they are and to whom a fair society offers support and opportunity but is self interest

    So, if you bought your residential address property then have maintained, renovated and extended that property to accommodate life style and family, what happens then if you decide to down size in your retirement?

    And why just target residential home address property and not other forms of growth of wealth being equity market gains and interest paid on savings

    The way to wealth is diversity (including property because the old reasoning was that, if equities were under pressure property was the attractive asset so property valuations compensated under performance by equities, but not currently courtesy of the dysfunctional Federal Government and its right wing idealogy), compounding (so time which also compensates for times like 1961, 1987, 2008 and currently in regards the ASX at least, noting Kohler’s graphs of last night) and, courtesy of personal endeavour and commitment, having no debt

    I do glean that the contributors I refer to promote the Greens which I see as a clear and present danger to Labor courtesy of the Tories linking the Greens to Labor as a deliberate electioneering strategy – the Greens unelectable because of the demographic their scant support is restricted to and their agenda including the presentations on this site

    They may be over represented on sites such as this but in the community they have minimal support and are a liability

  30. meher baba,
    I base my opinion about Jeremy Buckingham, not upon which faction of The NSW Greens he comes from, or how ‘environmental’ he is or isn’t, but upon the simple observation that the inquiry was unsatisfactory. Now, you may wish to construe that one way or the other, however, I’m going to take the comment at face value until I see otherwise.

  31. Tom:

    “There were many economic problems for the Soviet Stalinist system. One very general problem was the lack of incentives for productivity. As anonymous Soviet citizen said

    They pretend to pay us and we pretend to work.
    The Russian economist, Grigory Yavlinsky, who ultimately became an important advisor to Mikhail Gorbachev, became convinced to the need for reform when he investigated the low productivity in the Soviet mines. He found the miners were not working because they had no incentives to work. Said Yavlinsky

    The Soviet system is not working because the workers are not working.
    (http://www.sjsu.edu/faculty/watkins/sovietcollapse.htm)”

    Yep. Surveys have shown that many older inhabitants of former Eastern Bloc countries still yearn for the good old days when a working class man (and some women ) could enjoy a guaranteed job for life in which they didn’t have to work particularly hard. We see some of this phenomenon in Australia too, where the industrial left of the ALP are still keen to pour large amounts of taxpayers’ money into subsidising uncompetitive blue collar industries with unionised workforces enjoying levels of income and working conditions greatly exceeding those of people working in these industries in other countries.

    But at least in Australia we can afford to indulge ourselves in this sort of nostalgia, thanks to the wealth produced by our primary industries. The Eastern Bloc countries weren’t so lucky. Which is why they could not afford to provide well for people who were too sick or too old to work. And also why they totally trashed the environment in their countries with hare-brained irrigation schemes and toxic factories which failed to produce the wealth that they were intended to create.

    And yet there are still so many people in the West who seem to think that socialism is a good idea: 45 per cent of US citizens aged 18 to 34 according to one survey.

    https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/chapman/ct-perspec-chapman-young-socialism-capitalism-20180520-story.html

    This is the generation that has benefited from the fruits of capitalism to a far greater degree than any that has come before it, even the baby boomers. It’s just another illustration of the old maxim that the grass is always greener…

  32. C@tmomma: “I base my opinion about Jeremy Buckingham, not upon which faction of The NSW Greens he comes from, or how ‘environmental’ he is or isn’t, but upon the simple observation that the inquiry was unsatisfactory. ”

    How was it unsatisfactory? (Serious question.)

  33. My goodness, this is a very odd Liberal government. I’m not sure about definitions, but I’m not even sure it’s “neo-liberal”, lacking a clear market-based ideology.

    Shovelling money to its backers seems to be the most consistent theme…

    The Morrison government will inject $2 billion into the small business loan market in an unprecedented effort to boost lending to cash-starved firms which have complained of a worsening credit squeeze.

    The creation of a taxpayer-backed securitisation fund to invest in small and medium enterprise (SME) credit will also potentially expand an asset class for institutional investors such as superannuation funds to invest in….

    https://www.afr.com/news/economy/new-fund-offers-2b-boost-for-sme-loans-20181113-h17ums

  34. Observer,
    Not to mention this arrant nonsense, from someone who has probably never had a day without a dollar to bless himself, and especially in retirement when you can’t do much about it, in his life:

    4. Make superannuation voluntary and abolish all tax deductions associated with superannuation.

  35. Observer

    Your mistake is to say people putting issues are “Green”.

    In my case its the issue which is why I have not defended the Greens on the policy details but instead pointed to cases where for example a UBI works.

    Italy’s government is not left wing and out of touch Its closer to extreme right. The California Democrats are not exactly left wing either.

    As for the land ownership idea I see what Nicholas is talking about as going towards how the Indigenous people viewed the land. I understand this is the opposite to how our Western Civilisation operates and I think Nicholas is wrong. I do see we need to have a way through taxes of increasing the community and social interest and decreasing the purely private ones. A change of the balance. I think the German renting model is the way to go myself.

    I do think we need less of this lumping all issues as the Green people are saying and just addressing the issue itself.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *