BludgerTrack: 54.7-45.3 to Labor

After a dire result from Newspoll, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate is hardly better for the Coalition than it was immediately after the leadership coup.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with this week’s Newspoll and the YouGov Galaxy poll from Queensland, the effect of which is to add another half a point to Labor’s two-party preferred vote for a gain of only one seat, that being in Western Australia. The Queensland poll, which was a relatively good result for the Coalition, negated the effect of Newspoll in that state. Newspoll’s leadership ratings resulted in little change in the trend readings – no doubt it would have been a different story if I had a net satisfaction series for Scott Morrison, who did particularly badly in Newspoll, but there is still too little data for that to be feasible.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

995 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.7-45.3 to Labor”

  1. Would you like to be chased by a mob of angry nudists?

    Updated 2 Jan 2015, 6:27am

    Pilwarren Maslin Beach Nude Games
    PHOTO: An annual nude games event is held at Maslin Beach which was Australia’s first official nudist beach. (Pilwarren website)
    Up to 10 nudists chased down a naked man on South Australia’s Maslin Beach after he was spotted with a camera hidden inside his esky.

    It was claimed the man, thought to be in his 40s or 50s and wearing only an Akubra hat, was seen positioning his esky to face other unclad people on the nudist section of the iconic beach.

    A woman reportedly walked past and saw a wooden contraption inside his esky with a video camera set up to film through holes.

    He was confronted by nudists, only to walk further down the beach and position his esky to face another naked couple.

    A group of nudists then chased the man down the beach and made a citizens arrest until police arrived.

    The incident happened on December 21 but police said there was insufficient evidence for a charge of indecent filming.

    They examined the camera and found no vision had been recorded, but cautioned the man and asked him to leave the beach.

  2. Great Britain has questions to answer.

    Will the total destructo brexiteers force a leadership contest against May?
    Given that there is a conga line of destructo brexiteers, might the destructoes get their act together behind one person?
    Will the Labour brexiteers decide the future of the nation?
    Will the Parliament go to no confidence and force an election?
    Will Labour try to force referendum No 2?
    Will the EU just get sick of the Brits and tell them to sod off?

  3. GG
    ‘But, Albo made a comment.’
    By tomorrow morning this will have been escalated into a leadership crisis for Labor.
    By tomorrow evening, Shorten will have even more questions to answer.

  4. Esther McVey has sensationally resigned over Theresa May’s Brexit deal – telling the Prime Minister it “does not honour the result of the referendum” and “fails to secure the right outcome for the future of our country”.

    In her resignation letter – sent to the Prime Minister this morning and seen exclusively by the Telegraph – the Work and Pensions Secretary tells Mrs May that her proposed deal “doesn’t meet the tests you set from the outset of your premiership.”

  5. Look, the UK is forked. How they will come out of it I have no idea but I am glad mine have dual UK/Aussie citizenships. At least they can escape and come home.

  6. Well said by Anthony Albanese. Eg, deriding Tony Abbott for endeavouring to assist indigenous to employment is simply political one sided nastiness.
    Beginning to think A Albanese has a better understanding of the political divide and that calling half the population racists won’t suffice as a policy.

  7. And back to the walking embarrassment that is Scotty from the Shire – here he is recapping his meeting with the Chinese Premier, one of the most powerful men in the world.

    “Scott Morrison to Chinese Premier Li Keqiang: “I used to be in the tourism industry in Australia, and as you know, the Chinese have become a huge take up of the visitation… so you need to be able to say ‘ni hao’ if you’re in the tourism industry.” #9news #auspol #asean2018⁠ ⁠

  8. When Bill Shorten announced the policy to cap accountants fees for preparing tax returns at $3000 he started a run on investors looking for cheaper tax administration options and made tax accountants consider their future

  9. I can’t see now how they cannot avoid another Brexit referendum sooner or later. Especially given the lies told by so many Brexiteers the first time. If they can win a second one then everyone should work together on an effective and co-operative exit. But now that many people (especially those who did not vote) can see how complex it is to withdraw, I suspect that it will be solidly defeated despite the incredible amount of noise made by Brexiteers.

    It’s time in many countries for the centre to take back governance from the extremists!

  10. A perfect summary of this hopeless govt. Election now.

    As it limps towards the end of 2018, the Morrison government is gradually establishing its own grand narrative – one of staggering ineptitude as it lurches from one self-inflicted crisis to another. On decisions from Jerusalem to Foodbank, there is no overarching purpose here, there is no direction or strategy, there are only missteps and backdowns, seemingly born of the blinkered pursuit of base political advantage, which never materialises. For a PM schooled in marketing, these are textbook fails. For the federal Opposition, the coup against Malcolm Turnbull has proved the gift that keeps on giving.

    https://www.themonthly.com.au/today/paddy-manning/2018/15/2018/1542255743/scomo-tion-demise

  11. I remember John Howard’s first interaction with his own first Chinese Premier. The occasion was a state banquet in Beijing, in Howard’s honour…

    “Some of this Chinese food is very tasty”

  12. Theresa May is British PM because who ever is Prime Minister negotiating Brexit is going to get flogged, that’s why Boris and Nigel and David have let her in place.

    What is Labour’s position and why is Jeremy Corbyn being flogged? Really not fair to hold the opposition leader responsible for government policy

    BREXIT is going to hurt the saps that voted for it and damage the prospects of future generations of Britain and Ireland (Eire & Ulster)

  13. It’s all very simple. The UK wants all the advantages of EU membership but without having to be bound by any EU rules or laws and without having to accept workers from the EU or be under any obligation to accept a share asylum seekers reaching the EU.

  14. If Britain does have a second Brexit referendum, and the result was “remain”, would the EU be under any obligation to accept the result? Or could they just tell the UK “Sorry, too late. Bugger off”.

  15. If Britain does have a second Brexit referendum, and the result was “remain”, would the EU be under any obligation to accept the result? Or could they just tell the UK “Sorry, too late. Bugger off”.

    _____________________________________

    I’m not across the arrangements at all, but it seems to me that it could tell the UK to get stuffed. But I’m pretty sure it wouldn’t because it would not be in the EU’s interests to continue this circus – and especially not in the interests of its member Ireland. It would also change the power dynamic in any further negotiations over the status of the UK as Britain could be the one playing tough, rather than the EU.

  16. sprocket_ @ #917 Thursday, November 15th, 2018 – 9:09 pm

    And back to the walking embarrassment that is Scotty from the Shire – here he is recapping his meeting with the Chinese Premier, one of the most powerful men in the world.

    “Scott Morrison to Chinese Premier Li Keqiang: “I used to be in the tourism industry in Australia, and as you know, the Chinese have become a huge take up of the visitation… so you need to be able to say ‘ni hao’ if you’re in the tourism industry.” #9news #auspol #asean2018⁠ ⁠

    Most things I can stomach about Scott from the Shire via Bronte, he’s a jobsworth that is the Clayton’s Prime Minister you have when at least the half-smart amongst the Coalition decided that the electorate couldn’t come at a ‘Shiny Happy’ Dutton Ultra Conservative alternative to Turnbull, but I never in a million years believed that anyone could combine the ego and ambition necessary to ascend to the job of leader of the nation, and be so gauche!

  17. Steve777:

    Article 50 of the Treaties of the European Union (the article which governs leaving the EU) has a clause which explicitly mentions that rejoining the EU is possible after leaving it:

    If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.
    Article 49, in case you wonder, is the general admission process which applies to all would-be new EU members. It requires unanimous consent from the EU council members and simple majority from the EU parliament. That means any EU member could veto the UKs re-admission, but currently I wouldn’t know of any EU state having a good reason to do so.

    So you can dismiss the statement “UK will never be able to rejoin the EU” as FUD.

    You can of course consider the political problems of re-joining the EU after a referendum just came to the conclusion that the UK population does not want to be a part of the EU. While referendums in the UK are non-binding due to parliamental sovereignty it would theoretically be possible to act against it. But doing so might be considered political suicide. It will likely take a new referendum to rejoin the EU, and until circumstances have considerably changed there will likely be harsh resistance against another one.

    On the other hand, there are also all the special privileges the UK used to have in the EU, like opting out of the Schengen agreement, opting out of the Euro zone, a rebate on financial contributions to the EU and many more. All of that would need to be renegotiated in case of a readmission.

    So while it is wrong to say “The UK can not rejoin the EU”, one might say that “The UK can not rejoin the EU and regain all the special privileges it had”.

  18. At a function where someone on my table banged on about east west link etc etc

    Someone else took them to task over the deliberate Liberal treachery – I was very pleased that this crap doesn’t pass muster for a lot of Victorians!

  19. The whole world is falling to bits!

    I hope the dolt, Donald Trump, and the pipsqueak Putin, are happy! They’ve undermined the foundations of the Post World War order and now it’s collapsing down around their ears.

    Murderous thugs, otherwise known as the rulers of The Phillipines and Saudi Arabia, are running amok. Brazil is about to get it’s very own Boy From Brazil. The UK is coming apart at the seams, and Australia is being run by a man promoted beyond his pay grade and aptitude!

    Stop the World! I want to get off!

  20. Barry O’Sullivan in SEnate QT.

    :large

    I heard him ranting and declaring his gender to be female the other day in relation to abortion. Is this really what the coalition has become?

  21. Richie Benaud: Well Bill, I’d go one step further than that even and say I think the high-five should be outlawed from the game all together. It’s just a bit of seppo bullshit the West Indies have introduced into the game, and I reckon when it comes to congratulating one of your teammates, there’s simply no better way of doing it than the traditional Australian hug or a kiss or a lick, grope on the arse or a bit of a dry root. It’s still the most appropriate way i think of showing ones exuberance and excitment, and it’s certainly the most masculine and manly way of going about it.

  22. https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-15/labor-and-coalition-reject-changes-to-political-donation-laws/10502660

    “Voters will be left in the dark about who donated to the major political parties ahead of the next federal election, after Labor and the Coalition united to reject legislative changes being pushed by the crossbench.

    New laws banning foreign donations to political parties have passed the Senate, but the minor parties were angling for further reform, calling for real-time donation disclosure and stricter caps on anonymous donations.

    The changes that passed will see foreign donations to political parties of more than $100 banned.

    However, the Greens failed to amend the legislation to have political donations disclosed as they occurred.

    Under current federal laws, voters have to wait months to find out who donated more than $13,000 to the parties, but if the amendments had passed, the public would have gone into the next federal election with more information about political party funding than ever before.

    The Greens also failed to pass amendments that would see all political donations above $1,000 declared, meaning anything less than $13,000 will remain anonymous.
    :::::
    “What we have here is a deal by these two big parties to ram through a quite complex piece of legislation that manages to achieve looking like it’s doing something about a corrupt democracy while in fact letting 94 per cent of the donations to big parties carry on unregulated.”

  23. I saw this in my facebook timeline this morning, but just thought it was some random local called Steve Price. Never thought 2GB Land Steve Price would deign to leave Sydney, but he’s been over here apparently.

    As a winemaker, Steve Price sure makes a great broadcaster…

    On Day Two of his road trip through Western Australia’s Great South, Steve almost got taken out by an exploding bottle of Riesling.

    His visit to Oranje Tractor Wines, the same place Prince Charles and Camilla went three years ago, included a lesson in disgorging.

    The stunning, small-batch, organic winery is run by Murray and Pam and is a must visit for all.

    https://www.2gb.com/watch-steve-price-almost-gets-taken-out-by-an-exploding-riesling/?fbclid=IwAR1iVN3F4aBtN-skaEfoxYh3lB_Rkvg4-l92zxYUIHNJbWF9_uffNyGcqkQ

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