BludgerTrack: 54.7-45.3 to Labor

After a dire result from Newspoll, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate is hardly better for the Coalition than it was immediately after the leadership coup.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with this week’s Newspoll and the YouGov Galaxy poll from Queensland, the effect of which is to add another half a point to Labor’s two-party preferred vote for a gain of only one seat, that being in Western Australia. The Queensland poll, which was a relatively good result for the Coalition, negated the effect of Newspoll in that state. Newspoll’s leadership ratings resulted in little change in the trend readings – no doubt it would have been a different story if I had a net satisfaction series for Scott Morrison, who did particularly badly in Newspoll, but there is still too little data for that to be feasible.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

995 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.7-45.3 to Labor”

  1. Barney in Go Dau @ #713 Thursday, November 15th, 2018 – 2:18 pm

    The Liberal’s big stick, what is it?

    It’s Murray Watt’s turn to ask Mathias Cormann to explain his government’s policies.

    “What is the big stick and when exactly will it be used,” Watt asks about the government’s energy policy.

    “On this side of the chamber we are committed to bringing electricity prices down, that is of course why we are not going to impose a carbon tax straight after the election,” Cormann starts off.

    I think I can call this one early #thesenatordoesnotanswerthequestion

    Wong; “He talks about a stick, he says it is big, we are just asking him what it is.”

    If even Penny Wong has lost it today, what hope do any of the rest of us have?

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2018/nov/15/steve-ciobo-less-than-5-chance-of-israel-embassy-move-politics-live

    Thanks BigD. Penny Wong’s question has made my day!

  2. Mavis Smith @ #765 Thursday, November 15th, 2018 – 4:51 pm

    nath:

    [‘Goll Name Meaning. English: nickname for a silly person, from Middle English golle ‘unfledged bird’.’]

    As a senior lecturer I’m sure you’d rebuke a student who attacked the person in lieu of the subject(?).

    And you believe that nath is a senior lecturer?

    He works part time delivering Dominos Pizzas on his bicycle.

  3. “I think I can call this one early #thesenatordoesnotanswerthequestion

    Wong; “He talks about a stick, he says it is big, we are just asking him what it is.””

    Penny better watch that… 🙂

    Wasn’t there a group of Lib MP’s a while ago that referred to themselves as the “Big Swinging Dicks”??

    they may have morphed into the “Big Swinging Sticks”. 🙂

  4. Rex Douglas @ #804 Thursday, November 15th, 2018 – 6:27 pm

    Player One @ #791 Thursday, November 15th, 2018 – 6:22 pm

    C@tmomma @ #797 Thursday, November 15th, 2018 – 6:10 pm

    The Guardian reports that the Minerals Council has backed the Coalition’s plan to underwrite new power generation, and has warned Labor to honour any contracts negotiated by the Morrison government before the next election.

    The Morrison government wouldn’t sign these contracts, so far behind in the polls and so close to an election, would they!?!

    Labor should announce now that any contracts for coal-based power stations will be cancelled after the election.

    The mining unions won’t allow that.

    How could they stop it?

  5. “Wasn’t there a group of Lib MP’s a while ago that referred to themselves as the “Big Swinging Dicks”??” There are two truths about the subject of big dicks. If you have one you do not need to talk about it and you do not need a flash car.

  6. “Wasn’t there a group of Lib MP’s a while ago that referred to themselves as the “Big Swinging Dicks”??” There are two truths about the subject of big dicks. If you have one you do not need to talk about it and you do not need a flash car.

  7. “And you believe that nath is a senior lecturer?
    He works part time delivering Dominos Pizzas on his bicycle.”

    Come on! You expect us to believe that Nath can ride a bicycle?

  8. “And you believe that nath is a senior lecturer?
    He works part time delivering Dominos Pizzas on his bicycle.”

    Come on! You expect us to believe that Nath can ride a bicycle?

  9. So now Malaysia wants to lecture us on moving our embassy to Jerusalem. How about Malaysia focus on defeating extremist Islam in their country. These Moslems don’t respect Western nations like Australia and the United States and our values.

  10. Theresa May’s Brexit Minister Dominic Rabb has just resigned..

    Here is the text of the resignation statement:

    It has been an honor to serve in your government as Justice Minister, Housing Minister and Brexit Secretary.

    I regret to say that, following the Cabinet meeting yesterday on the Brexit deal, I must resign. I understand why you have chosen to pursue the deal with the EU on the terms proposed, and I respect the different views held in good faith by all of our colleagues.

    For my part, I cannot support the proposed deal for two reasons. First, I believe that the regulatory regime proposed for Northern Ireland presents a very real threat to the integrity of the United Kingdom.

    Second, I cannot support an indefinite backstop arrangement, where the EU holds a veto over our ability to exit. The terms of the backstop amount to a hybrid of the EU Customs Union and Single Market obligations. No democratic nation ever signed up to be bound by such an extensive regime, imposed externally without any democratic control over the laws to be applied, nor the ability to decide to exit the arrangement.

    That arrangement is now also taken as the starting point for negotiating the Future Economic Partnership. If we accept that, it will severely prejudice the second phase of negotiations against the UK.

    Above all, I cannot reconcile the terms of the proposed deal with the promises we made to the country in our manifesto at the last election. This is, at its heart, a matter of public trust.

    I appreciate that you disagree with my judgment on these issues. I have weighed very carefully the alternative courses of action which the government could take, on which I have previously advised. Ultimately, you deserve a Brexit Secretary who can make the case for the deal you are pursuing with conviction. I am only sorry, in good conscience, that I cannot.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-raab-text/brexit-minister-raab-quits-uk-government-over-mays-eu-deal-idUSKCN1NK11E?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=twitter

  11. These Moslems don’t respect Western nations like Australia and the United States and our values.

    Well, yeah… so? Why is that Malaysia’s problem?

  12. “How about Malaysia focus on defeating extremist Islam”

    Agreed. Would be a good counterpoint to ScoMo helping them along by inflicting his opportunistic his brain-farts on the world.

  13. So now Malaysia wants to lecture us on moving our embassy to Jerusalem.

    ______________________________

    Ha Ha Ha. I remember when John Howard almost died of shame on behalf of the nation when Paul Keating called Mahathir recalcitrant. I bet Bree (or whatever it is or what it represents) was outraged then.

  14. don says:
    And you believe that nath is a senior lecturer?

    He works part time delivering Dominos Pizzas on his bicycle.
    __________________________________
    It’s not a bicycle it’s a DXP with a rear warming oven so that my customers get nice hot pizzas. Don’t look down on people because they work in service jobs. I have been trying to unionize my fellow delivery men but face an intractable management. You sound like a Liberal snob.

  15. UK Brexit minister resigns…

    Dear Prime Minister,

    It has been an honour to serve in your government as justice minister, housing minister and Brexit secretary.

    I regret to say that, following the cabinet meeting yesterday on the Brexit deal. I must resign. I understand why you have chosen to pursue the deal with the EU on the terms proposed, and I respect the different views held in good faith by all of our colleagues.

    For my part, I cannot support the proposed deal for two reasons. First I believe that the regulatory regime proposed for Northern Ireland presents a very real threat to the integrity of the United Kingdom.

    Second, I cannot support an indefinite backstop arrangement, where the EU holds a veto over our ability to exit.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2018/nov/15/brexit-deal-theresa-may-takes-agreement-to-parliament-politics-live

  16. How about Moslem nations stop forcing women to wear burqas, women should be able to wear whatever they want. Can I wear a bikini in Malaysia or Indonesia?

  17. C@tmomma

    And Libya, Africa’s highest GDP to ‘rooted’ .The people of Syria would also be appreciating the West’s efforts to spread ‘truth justice and the American way’ using 90 shades of head choppers.

  18. Bree

    Check out ‘Moslem’ Afghanistan women from back before the US decided to gift the Mujaheddin to the people of Afghanistan. Better Taliban than commie eh ?

  19. The BreeBot statement is really ignorant.

    Having been to Malaysia many times, and studied the culture and history of the region at Sydney University, I can say with some authority that they do respect our culture and values. In fact, integrating multi faiths and ethnicities, Malay/Islam, Chinese/Christian/Buddhist and Indian/Hindu along with the vestiges of British colonliasm including its parliamentary and legal system has been no mean feat.

    They don’t hate us or western values. On the contrary, they aspire to benefit from the western capitalist economy as much as we do. And they hate the splinter Muslim jihadists with a vengeance – and treat them accordingly.

  20. sprocket_ says:
    Thursday, November 15, 2018 at 8:39 pm

    The BreeBot statement is really ignorant.

    Having been to Malaysia many times, and studied the culture and history of the region at Sydney University, I can say with some authority that they do respect our culture and values. In fact, integrating multi faiths and ethnicities, Malay/Islam, Chinese/Christian/Buddhist and Indian/Hindu along with the vestiges of British colonliasm including its parliamentary and legal system has been no mean feat.

    They don’t hate us or western values. On the contrary, they aspire to benefit from the western capitalist economy as much as we do. And they hate the splinter Muslim jihadists with a vengeance – and treat them accordingly.
    ____________________
    One of the few intelligent things you have said on here. There is a problem some Australians have with both Malaysia and Indonesia, seeing them as threats and hating/coveting Australia. It’s as silly as any other prejudice but certain events over the years have agitated some paranoid minds.

  21. Earlier today, a few posters shared ‘tips’ for rapists, which they said were tactless.

    I myself have shared that post. I would again if it came up.

    Many feminists have shared it.

    It is an excellent satirical piece.

  22. If Scotty had any balls he would man up and shirtfront the 93 year old Mahatir like his predecessors- don’t think so…

    Fiona Reynolds reports from Canberra.

    FIONA REYNOLDS: Dr Mahathir has regularly flexed his regional muscle and often at Australia’s expense – his most celebrated run in with Paul Keating in 1993. The then Australian Prime Minister lashed out when Dr Mahathir refused to attend the APEC Summit, pushing instead for an East-Asia economic caucus that would have excluded Australia.

    PAUL KEATING: APEC is bigger than all of us – Australia, the US and Malaysia and Dr Mahathir and any other recalcitrants.

    FIONA REYNOLDS: Dr Mahathir threatened trade retaliation and Mr Keating finally apologised. John Howard came to power in 1996 boasting that he’d build a better relationship with Malaysia, and within weeks encouraged Dr Mahathir to make only his second visit to Australia.

    The Malaysian Prime Minister now says he could work with Paul Keating while lashing out at John Howard over what he calls ‘racial problems’.

    MOHAMAD MAHATHIR: We have a man who doesn’t even recognise that you have a problem about this stealing one generation of the Aborigines and the law against the Aborigines has been very unfair. So I think it’s better for you to look at home.

    http://www.abc.net.au/pm/stories/s127966.htm

  23. don:

    [‘And you believe that nath is a senior lecturer?’]

    It’s a habit of a lifetime to believe another until such time as it becomes clear they’re having me on.

    Apart from some of the usual argy-bargy one encounters on a blog such as this, I have no reason to believe that nath is not what he claims to be.

  24. ‘zoomster says:
    Thursday, November 15, 2018 at 8:42 pm

    Earlier today, a few posters shared ‘tips’ for rapists, which they said were tactless.

    I myself have shared that post. I would again if it came up.

    Many feminists have shared it.

    It is an excellent satirical piece.’

    Snap, Zoomster. Just like the panties and thongs going viral in the Irish Republic.

  25. You may notice the ABS pixellated the faces, but that is all. lol

    Puffytmd @ #888 Thursday, November 15th, 2018 – 8:19 pm

    Bree, or whatever that entity is, is so juvenile. Such amateur attempts at trolling. Wear whatever you like? lolololololololololol Try skinny dipping at Manly Beach.
    Luckily in Adelaide, we have a beach just for that purpose. and a beautiful beach it be.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-12-31/pilwarren-maslin-beach-nude-games/5994244

  26. The British House of Commons has 650 members, so they have an endless pool of privileged, chinless Oxford and Cambridge graduates to dragoon into the ministry – resign away you Muppets.

    The sooner we can cut the mouldy British apron strings from out democracy the better.

  27. Peg

    ‘Albanese said ruthless partisanship was “a failed model of government”.’

    Meh. We all knew that already. Albo was talking about the same old, same old Greens.

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