BludgerTrack: 54.7-45.3 to Labor

After a dire result from Newspoll, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate is hardly better for the Coalition than it was immediately after the leadership coup.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with this week’s Newspoll and the YouGov Galaxy poll from Queensland, the effect of which is to add another half a point to Labor’s two-party preferred vote for a gain of only one seat, that being in Western Australia. The Queensland poll, which was a relatively good result for the Coalition, negated the effect of Newspoll in that state. Newspoll’s leadership ratings resulted in little change in the trend readings – no doubt it would have been a different story if I had a net satisfaction series for Scott Morrison, who did particularly badly in Newspoll, but there is still too little data for that to be feasible.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

995 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.7-45.3 to Labor”

  1. ‘Buckingham, a member of the state upper house, faced an independent investigation earlier this year over allegations he behaved inappropriately toward a Greens aide in 2011. Buckingham said the investigation – conducted by independent firm Workdynamic Australia – cleared him of any wrongdoing.

    The full report has not been released, though Buckingham has released advice he received about its “final recommendations”.’

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/13/greens-call-jeremy-buckingham-quit-behaviour-women

    So we only have the word of the person under investigation that he has been cleared. Meanwhile, his leader is calling for him to step down.

    Who to believe? Buckingham or the Black Wiggle?

  2. Shorten’s statement re. FauxM0’s decision (since watered down) to move our embassy to Jerusalem:

    “I think that Mr Morrison made a major mistake when he floated the kite before the Wentworth byelection to say we would move Australia’s embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, which broke 70 years of bipartisanship and didn’t do anything to accomplish peace in the Middle East,” Bill Shorten said of Scott Morrison’s idea to have a “discussion” about moving our Israeli embassy ahead of last month’s Wentworth byelection.

    “Mr Morrison made a mistake. Frankly he made himself look stupid and made our country look stupid. If he has decided not to move the embassy, for goodness sakes, just tell us so we can all get on with everything else.

    “I don’t see why this nation has to wait until Christmas so Mr Morrison can climb off his high horse and admit he made himself and Australia look stupid.”

  3. Van Badham

    Verified account

    @vanbadham
    24h24 hours ago
    More
    Can Greens explain why a female candidate who made social media posts about shoplifting was forced to withdraw from the #Springst campaign, but the date-rape-rapper dude whose fantasy of “topless chicks giving me coconuts” was expressed LAST YEAR is OK?

  4. Update on Yan Yean – apparently the Liberal logo and name will not appear beside the candidate’s name, although it will still be on the ballot. And I assume there won’t be HTVs being handed out by Liberals.

  5. Hey William

    Looking at Bludger Track for WA….query if Hastie might get a sophomore lift in Canning…he’s only had one general election and the by-election for his initial election was <12 months before…

  6. hungry jack:

    [‘anyone think trump might soon resign?’]

    You may be onto to something. I guess it all depends on Mueller’s next move; he may be ready to present the hitherto sealed indictments, which some anticipate will include the name of Trump’s son.

  7. Rocket Rocket says:

    Steve777

    Somehow it is not nearly as “sexy” a news story as the Coalition being infiltrated by Neo-Nazis!

    In Murdoch Media world and in some RW Coalition sections it is even worse !

  8. Laocoon

    May be partly offset – I think running against him I would use pictures of the infamous “list” to spill Turnbull’s position – Hastie’s name was the first on the first page (even ahead of Craig Kelly, Michael Sukkar, Kevin Andrews and Peter Dutton himself).

  9. Rocket Rocket

    Indeed possibly.

    The other WA seat that has particularly caught my eye was Stirling, for similar reasons given Turnbull called out Keenan on Q&A; it’s on a biggish margin but in the current environment…

  10. The Liberal’s big stick, what is it?

    It’s Murray Watt’s turn to ask Mathias Cormann to explain his government’s policies.

    “What is the big stick and when exactly will it be used,” Watt asks about the government’s energy policy.

    “On this side of the chamber we are committed to bringing electricity prices down, that is of course why we are not going to impose a carbon tax straight after the election,” Cormann starts off.

    I think I can call this one early #thesenatordoesnotanswerthequestion

    Wong; “He talks about a stick, he says it is big, we are just asking him what it is.”

    If even Penny Wong has lost it today, what hope do any of the rest of us have?

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2018/nov/15/steve-ciobo-less-than-5-chance-of-israel-embassy-move-politics-live

  11. The highly progressive Queensland Labor Government is putting boulders under the Kurilpa Bridge in Brisbane in order to prevent homeless people from sleeping there.

    The Government is only increasing the supply of public housing across the state by a meagre 500 units this financial year.

    There are 14,000 households (and a much larger number of individuals) on a waiting list for Queensland public housing.

    Many thousands more don’t even bother to apply because they have no chance to secure housing.

    The Queensland Labor Government is treating homeless people in a punitive way instead of responding the the underlying problem: lack of public housing.

    Greens Councillor Jonathan Sri for the Gabba Ward of Brisbane City Council discusses this callous and foolish decision by the Queensland Labor Government:

    https://www.facebook.com/jonno.sri/videos/269634763693186/

  12. Kyle Griffin‏Verified account @kylegriffin1

    WH officials are struggling to understand the source of the fury fueling Trump’s eruptions. “This is a level of insanity I’ve never seen before,” one ex-West Wing staffer told VF.

    “He’s under a tremendous amount of mental stress,” a prominent GOPer said.

    Louise Mensch‏Verified account @LouiseMensch

    Louise Mensch Retweeted Kyle Griffin

    I can help

    His name is Bob Mueller

    “Insanity,” “Furious,” “On His Own”: Trump’s Post-Midterms Blues Are Vexing His Staff and Roiling the White House

    He’s lashing out at aides and press and foreign leaders, and threatening to roll West Wing heads—but at least he didn’t get his hair wet at the Belleau Wood memorial.

    https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/11/trumps-post-midterms-blues-roil-the-white-house?utm_source=twitter&utm_social-type=owned&utm_brand=vf&mbid=social_twitter&utm_medium=social

  13. Amy Remeikis is good value..
    “Murray Watt still doesn’t know what the big stick is but says Mathias Cormann told Sky that “as a general rule, I support government policy”.

    Watt asks what are the exceptions to that rule are, and whether the power policy is one of them.

    Cormann says he was tripped up by Sky’s David Speers and repeated part of the question back to him in his answer, in what he says was a “rookie” mistake. He says he “always” supports government policy.

    My eyes have rolled so far back into my head they have now blocked my ears, so I miss the end of these questions, but it seems to be about some of the constitutional concerns which have been raised over the government’s ability to break up electricity companies.

    Cormann says that is to be a measure of last resort and the government is committed to bringing down power prices.

    Sigh.”

  14. W.A ALP MLC deletes rape ‘jokes’ post after criticism. But party stand by him.

    The “tips”, which have circulated the internet before, and are believed to have originated from meme site 9GAG, included suggestions rapists have a “trusted friend” accompany them if “it is incovenient for you to stop yourself raping women”. The list of 10 “tips” also includes advice for rapists that “honesty is the best policy”. “When asking a woman out on a date, don’t pretend you are interested in her as a person; tell her straight up that you expect to be raping her later,” the post read.

    West Australian Premier Mark McGowan has ordered one of his MPs to shut down his Twitter ­account after he posted a series of “rape prevention tips”.Mr McGowan said yesterday he had phoned Mr West, 53, to tell him to remove the post and pull down his Twitter account. “He made a mistake and it’s not a hanging offence,” he told Perth radio station 6PR.

    https://www.watoday.com.au/politics/western-australia/wa-labor-mp-deletes-rape-prevention-tweet-20180616-p4zluw.html

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/wa-mp-darren-west-in-retreat-after-rape-prevention-tweet/news-story/a7bcb65acd137b720a3032f0ff018adf

  15. The Queensland Labor Government does far more to help private property developers than it does to help people who need public housing.

    Queens Wharf Brisbane Casino

    West Village in West End

    These are two high profile current examples of the enormous largesse that the Qld Government extends to private property developers.

    But the Queensland Government is creating a whopping 500 extra public housing units in a financial year for an entire state in which the waiting list is 14,000 households, so in a moral sense they’ve definitely offset the billions of dollars’ worth of concessions that they have granted to private property developers.

    The Qld Government is equally solicitous towards poker machine operators.

    They have just approved the installation of 45 poker machines at the Pig and Whistle restaurant in Indooroopilly, Brisbane.

  16. Voted yesterday in the Victorian state elections
    FWIW…
    Lower house 1st preference went to Labor.
    Upper house 10 preferences went to Greens first, then Reason, then Labor (left out Jane Garrett)

  17. The “Hondo Gratten” (a trotter so goes around and around) of politics has been on the ABC re employment growth (for women) and this employment growth because of the “great economy” this dysfunctional government is delivering.

    The questions are:-

    1) IF the economy is in such great shape, why is the ASX DOWN by 10% since 31st August (noting the DJIA is DOWN by 3.5% over the same period)?

    2) IF the economy is in such great shape, why is the Cash Rate maintaining at 1.5%, with the attaching Notes conveying what they are conveying that this historically low rate will continue – and giving reasons?

    3) IF the economy is in such great shape, why are Profit Warnings being issued to the ASX, why has Roger Davis joined the never ending list of businesses to collapse and why are Telstra, NAB and ANZ (as but 3 only) retrenching staff?

    4) IF the economy is in such great shape, why is Polling showing the Coalition Parties will be wiped out at the upcoming Federal Election, including your seat?

    5) IF the economy is in such great shape, why doesn’t the dysfunctional government show the confidence it is sapping from Australians by itself calling an election (and particularly as we have an un-elected pm)?

    Given “Hondo Gratten” was a “Senior” executive at NAB, let me return to Franking Credits, and NAB

    1) Advice to purchase $200,000- of NAB Shares, then at $36- and “can not go any lower”, to take advantage of the Franking Credit

    2) $200,000- less brokerage so a holding of 5,500 Shares

    3) Today, NAB are at $23.74, so the 200,000 Shares are worth $130,570- less brokerage (at least there would be no Capital Gains Tax!!)

    4) Capital LOSS (to date) $69,430-, representing a 35% decline in wealth.

    5) My $200,000- remains on Term Deposit, in tranches of $50,000- each for 12 months, so a maturity every 3 months in case of need, earning 2.7%, so $5,400 PA or $450- per month going into my operating account, which I spend.

    “Hondo Gratten” worked at NAB.

    Call an election, now.

    My advice?

    Ring the Office of “Hondo Gratten” and ask the foregoing questions.

    And invite “Hondo Gratten” to go to the Polls, now.

  18. Observer
    Good 5 points about the economy.The MSM are just using the Coalition narrative that the economy is going swimmingly.Its Bullshit!! The All Ords is down another 43 today which is almost down half again of the last 2 days.

  19. https://outline.com/EsZasB

    Just when you thought that retail super funds could not be portrayed as bigger wankers……

    Retail funds trousering peoples franking credits for profit??

    FFS this royal commish has backfired on the Libs objectives in a serious way.

    the final report is going to be a doozy.

  20. “Liberal @TimSmithMP launching a campaign to highlight “infiltration of Labor by Green activists” @9NewsMelb #vicvotes”

    Tim Smith is a clown. How dare people outside the Greens party take an interest in environmental issues. How dare them. All members of the Labor party should rub a lump of coal over their naked bodies in penance.

    And yet, seeing as there are actual Nazis hanging out with Ms Yan Yean, it’s not the stupidest thing I’ve heard a Lib member say today.

  21. Couple of things about below story
    1. Washington Post got an indepth leak from Trump wh.
    2.Melania T played the political game so well that Trump is forced to fire second in command in NSA. Melania secretary issued a statement asking for the aide firing when John Bolton is in Asia. According to the story, he was woken up in the middle of the night to be informed about the firing. Apparently he was protecting the aide from all comers till now
    3. Not that it is any new news, but it illustrates the Trump WH chaos.

    https://www-washingtonpost-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/politics/a-white-house-aide-picked-a-fight-with-melania-trump-the-first-lady-won/2018/11/14/d802dfdc-e822-11e8-a939-9469f1166f9d_story.html?amp_js_v=a2&amp_gsa=1#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fpolitics%2Fa-white-house-aide-picked-a-fight-with-melania-trump-the-first-lady-won%2F2018%2F11%2F14%2Fd802dfdc-e822-11e8-a939-9469f1166f9d_story.html

  22. Ven @ #730 Thursday, November 15th, 2018 – 3:26 pm

    Couple of things about below story
    1. Washington Post got an indepth leak from Trump wh.
    2.Melania T played the political game so well that Trump is forced to fire second in command in NSA. Melania secretary issued a statement asking for the aide firing when John Bolton is in Asia. According to the story, he was woken up in the middle of the night to be informed about the firing. Apparently he was protecting the aide from all comers till now
    3. Not that it is any new news, but it illustrates the Trump WH chaos.

    https://www-washingtonpost-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/politics/a-white-house-aide-picked-a-fight-with-melania-trump-the-first-lady-won/2018/11/14/d802dfdc-e822-11e8-a939-9469f1166f9d_story.html?amp_js_v=a2&amp_gsa=1#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fpolitics%2Fa-white-house-aide-picked-a-fight-with-melania-trump-the-first-lady-won%2F2018%2F11%2F14%2Fd802dfdc-e822-11e8-a939-9469f1166f9d_story.html

    Cat fight! And the cat with the bigger claws won. 🙂


  23. Expat says:
    Thursday, November 15, 2018 at 3:17 pm
    “Liberal @TimSmithMP launching a campaign to highlight “infiltration of Labor by Green activists” @9NewsMelb #vicvotes”

    I had a big laugh. Thanks Tim Smith for making me laugh.
    My goodness I did know till now that Labor is infiltrated by Green activists. If Tim is launching this campaign after seeing comments between Labor and Green activits, then he needs his head to be checked. 🙂 🙂


  24. C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, November 15, 2018 at 3:35 pm
    Cat fight! And the cat with the bigger claws won.

    C@tmomma
    My second laugh today after Tim Smith campaign launch to highlight “infiltration of Labor by Green activists”.


  25. Laocoon says:
    Thursday, November 15, 2018 at 2:12 pm
    Rocket Rocket

    Indeed possibly.

    The other WA seat that has particularly caught my eye was Stirling, for similar reasons given Turnbull called out Keenan on Q&A; it’s on a biggish margin but in the current environment…

    Stirling was once a ALP seat during Hawke-Keating era.


  26. Zoidlord says:
    Thursday, November 15, 2018 at 3:40 pm
    Gee The green slave Army is out in force today ignoring their own.

    Hypercrites!

    I have no idea what that means.


  27. Rex Douglas says:
    Thursday, November 15, 2018 at 2:54 pm
    Voted yesterday in the Victorian state elections
    FWIW…
    Lower house 1st preference went to Labor.
    Upper house 10 preferences went to Greens first, then Reason, then Labor (left out Jane Garrett)

    C@tmomma
    The above post is the proof that highlights “infiltration of Labor by Green activists”. 🙂 🙂


  28. poroti says:
    Thursday, November 15, 2018 at 3:37 pm
    If Bolton was protecting the guy then it is 25-1 odds on that getting rid of them was a very good move.

    poroti
    As C@tmomma pointed, it ia cat fight ie it is not a guy but a Gal.


  29. Rex Douglas says:
    Thursday, November 15, 2018 at 2:54 pm
    Voted yesterday in the Victorian state elections
    FWIW…
    Lower house 1st preference went to Labor.
    Upper house 10 preferences went to Greens first, then Reason, then Labor (left out Jane Garrett)

    Seriously though Rex, Well done & Good on ya.

  30. The Greens candidate for Sandringham, Dominic Phillips, also apologised this week for “liking” as a teenager several Facebook pages that were racist or degrading to women.

    Hmm.

  31. FauxMo claims he was unwware of Ciobo’s comment re. the embassy debacle:

    “I am not aware of him saying that” – Scott Morrison on Steve Ciobo’s comments

    ‘Asked about David Crowe’s story, which reported Steve Ciobo said there was “less than a 5% chance” of the embassy move actually happening” (which Ciobo did not deny having said today), Scott Morrison says, “he has no information it was ever actually said.”


  32. nath says:
    Thursday, November 15, 2018 at 2:45 pm
    W.A ALP MLC deletes rape ‘jokes’ post after criticism. But party stand by him.

    So do you reckon the MLC should step down from Legislative council?

  33. nath @ #713 Thursday, November 15th, 2018 – 2:45 pm

    W.A ALP MLC deletes rape ‘jokes’ post after criticism. But party stand by him.

    The “tips”, which have circulated the internet before, and are believed to have originated from meme site 9GAG, included suggestions rapists have a “trusted friend” accompany them if “it is incovenient for you to stop yourself raping women”. The list of 10 “tips” also includes advice for rapists that “honesty is the best policy”. “When asking a woman out on a date, don’t pretend you are interested in her as a person; tell her straight up that you expect to be raping her later,” the post read.

    West Australian Premier Mark McGowan has ordered one of his MPs to shut down his Twitter ­account after he posted a series of “rape prevention tips”.Mr McGowan said yesterday he had phoned Mr West, 53, to tell him to remove the post and pull down his Twitter account. “He made a mistake and it’s not a hanging offence,” he told Perth radio station 6PR.

    https://www.watoday.com.au/politics/western-australia/wa-labor-mp-deletes-rape-prevention-tweet-20180616-p4zluw.html

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/wa-mp-darren-west-in-retreat-after-rape-prevention-tweet/news-story/a7bcb65acd137b720a3032f0ff018adf

    Mr West clearly lacks tact…. which I’d have thought is essential for mp’s.

    Perhaps he should be ‘managed out’ before it inevitably happens again.

  34. Has this guy resigned yet?

    The Greens have come under pressure in recent days to dump its candidate for the seat of Footscray, Angus McAlpine, over sexist and homophobic lyrics he rapped as a member of a hip hop crew.

    Mr McAlpine this week apologised for the “reprehensible” lyrics, telling reporters he had written them as a “stupid and moronic” young man but had since changed.

    Nope.

  35. Oh, that’s right, Greens’ candidates or MPs are allowed to apologise and cite whatever reason sounds good enough to get them out of the crapper.

    Labor MPs? Not so much. Pearls must be clutched and demands must be made by Greens’ partisans!

    🙄

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