BludgerTrack: 54.7-45.3 to Labor

After a dire result from Newspoll, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate is hardly better for the Coalition than it was immediately after the leadership coup.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with this week’s Newspoll and the YouGov Galaxy poll from Queensland, the effect of which is to add another half a point to Labor’s two-party preferred vote for a gain of only one seat, that being in Western Australia. The Queensland poll, which was a relatively good result for the Coalition, negated the effect of Newspoll in that state. Newspoll’s leadership ratings resulted in little change in the trend readings – no doubt it would have been a different story if I had a net satisfaction series for Scott Morrison, who did particularly badly in Newspoll, but there is still too little data for that to be feasible.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

995 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.7-45.3 to Labor”

  1. “I’d love some journo to ask Morrison what the difference is between listening and hearing…”

    I would say that I would love some journo to ask Morrison to explain the advantages accruing to Australia in moving our embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, except that I would just find the bombastic, blathering non-answer both annoying and uninformative.

  2. Trump is crazy – like a fox.

    On Wednesday the US president once again stirred the pot. “The Republicans don’t win and that’s because of potentially illegal votes,” Trump told the conservative Daily Caller website. “When people get in line that have absolutely no right to vote and they go around in circles. Sometimes they go to their car, put on a different hat, put on a different shirt, come in and vote again. Nobody takes anything. It’s really a disgrace what’s going on.”

    He also called for new national ID laws with a bizarre assertion: “If you buy a box of cereal – you have a voter ID.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/nov/14/florida-voting-donald-trump-disguises-midterms

  3. Bushfire Bill @ #597 Thursday, November 15th, 2018 – 10:14 am

    Morrison has an ace up his sleeve on the Jerusalem Gambit: no more changes of PM will be tolerated by the voters before the election.

    Even if he resigned it would be curtains for the LNP. If he was turned out over a stupid matter of policy (or perhaps a matter of stupid policy), that would be even worse. FOUR PMs in one 3 year term would be something that even the most blinded right winger would have to notice.

    What if Morrison laid his job on the line over Jerusalem? Might it suddenly not look like such a radical change of course after all?

    FOUR PMs in one 3 year term would be something that even the most blinded right winger would have to notice.

    How do you work that out?

    Malcolm Turnbull led the LNP to victory in 2016, and was PM from that time until Scott Morrison took over.

    If Morrison resigned now and somebody else took his place, that would be three PMs in one electoral term, not four.

  4. I’d love some journo to ask Morrison what the difference is between listening and hearing…

    I think that listening implies active attention, deliberate processing of information, making meaning, and trying to understand the relevant context and perspectives that inform the content that you are hearing.

    Hearing is an automatic process of sound waves entering your ear and then being converted into electrical signals that enter your brain. The person who is hearing might not be willing or able to listen in the sense of paying active attention to the information and making sense of it.

    Simon and Garfunkel sing the lyric “people hearing without listening”. I think that is what they are getting at when they draw that distinction.

  5. Just a machine to print money? This is a scandal.

    A Brisbane construction firm made a profit of more than $43m for running Australia’s immigration detention centre on Nauru last financial year.

    Canstruct International’s sole contract is with the Australian government to provide garrison and welfare services at the regional processing centre on Nauru, which it has done since October 2017.

    In its first reporting period as a company, Canstruct International has disclosed it made an after tax profit of $43.16m, with a turnover of almost $212m. Almost $140m was spent on suppliers and employees, and it paid $8.6m in tax.

    Canstruct International is preparing to hand over control of the centre to the Nauru Regional Processing Centre Corporation (NRPCC), the Nauruan government’s commercial entity. The NRPCC was slated to take the contract on 31 October, but that has been pushed to April, with the Australian government retaining the services of Canstruct International.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/15/brisbane-construction-firm-made-43m-profit-running-nauru-detention-centre-last-year?CMP=soc_568

  6. And…

    The government has indicated it intended to bring all children and families to Australia by the end of the year. Neither the prime minister Scott Morrison or his ministers had disputed the report, although reasons given differed. The home affairs minister, Peter Dutton, said the transfers were not because of medical concerns but because of the high cost to taxpayers in keeping people on Nauru.

    However this week Morrison told Sky News he had never publicly said all children would be brought off by the new year, and that the policy remained unchanged.

  7. ‘He’s been in over his head since he took the oath of office’: Trump biographer says his problems ‘are coming home to roost’

    President Donald Trump’s insecurity and lack of intellectual sophistication are at the heart of the increasing chaos in the White House since the “blue wave” in the midterm elections, a Trump biographer explained on MSNBC.

    Tim O’Brien wrote the 2005 book Trump Nation and joined “Hardball” host Chris Matthews on Wednesday.

    “I don’t think that there’s anything particularly new here,” O’Brien answered. “The Trump administration has been a center of chaos and a locus of chaos since the president was inaugurated.”

    “Ideology and partisan politics aside, he is not good at managing people or process — he surrounds himself with third-tier people who don’t challenge him, because he’s insecure,” he continued. “And those problems are coming home to roost now.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/11/hes-head-since-took-oath-office-trump-biographer-says-problems-coming-home-roost/

  8. Doesn’t seem that long, one year since the fake plebiscite on Marriage Equality. Within a week, everyone had pretty much accepted it, forgotten about it and moved on to the next big issue. Except those directly affected, of course, who were finally allowed to marry if they wanted to, several thousand at last count. Society didn’t collapse, the sky didn’t fall in and everything’s pretty much the same as it was. Just like one year after the Republic comes into force, should that ever happen.

    I’m still a bit hesitant about celebrating the plebiscite. It was a totally unnecessary exercise, imposed upon the community for the sole purpose of papering over the divisions in the “Liberal” party, allowing its hard right faction a chance to mount a scare/disinformation campaign in a last-ditch effort to block reform.

    Such celebration could also legitimise “Liberal” attempts to claim credit for the reform. In particular, the only role that Malcolm played in the reform was to take over the Liberal leadership in 2015 and win the 2016 election which Abbott would have almost certainly lost. Net effect: waste $122 million to delay reform by about a year.

  9. lizzie @ #652 Thursday, November 15th, 2018 – 11:58 am

    Trump is crazy – like a fox.

    On Wednesday the US president once again stirred the pot. “The Republicans don’t win and that’s because of potentially illegal votes,” Trump told the conservative Daily Caller website. “When people get in line that have absolutely no right to vote and they go around in circles. Sometimes they go to their car, put on a different hat, put on a different shirt, come in and vote again. Nobody takes anything. It’s really a disgrace what’s going on.”

    He also called for new national ID laws with a bizarre assertion: “If you buy a box of cereal – you have a voter ID.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/nov/14/florida-voting-donald-trump-disguises-midterms

    So, why wouldn’t they also be doing this to increase the Republican vote, you have to ask?

  10. It was a totally unnecessary exercise, imposed upon the community for the sole purpose of papering over the divisions in the “Liberal” party,

    It’s sole purpose was to give Trumble a few more nights at the lodge. Based on it’s only KPI it was a raging success. He just wishes he could have re-run it or something equally idiotic in the aftermath of Super Saturday.

  11. Steve

    The celebration continues long after the LNP and the Marriage Equality group advocates that did not want the survey are the ones doing the celebration.

    The LNP did have some warriors who were part of that even if Turnbull did not stand up.

  12. Is this fatheaded Lib trying to do a tit-for-tat for Nazi-boys infiltrating the Coalition?

    Andrew Lund
    ‏@andrew_lund

    Liberal @TimSmithMP launching a campaign to highlight “infiltration of Labor by Green activists” @9NewsMelb #vicvotes

  13. Bill on Morrison.

    Scott Morrison made a “major mistake” – Bill Shorten
    On the embassy issue, Bill Shorten said Scott Morrison “made himself look stupid and made our country look stupid.”

    “Let’s just get on with it, no shame in admitting you are wrong, let’s just get on with the next issue.”

    Shorten calls the discussion thought bubble an “ad man mistake” and Morrison is “running Australia not an advertising campaign”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2018/nov/15/steve-ciobo-less-than-5-chance-of-israel-embassy-move-politics-live

  14. lizzie

    Hasn’t Labor had Greens in the party for ages. That is Labor party members for the environment who used the word green to identify their loose grouping?

  15. lizzie

    Yes. Probably a reaction to this

    @UrbanWronski tweets

    Liberal candidate for marginal Yan Yean, Meralyn Klein, gone after video surfaces of her making threats to Muslim shop-owners. Just following Dutton’s lead, really. And of course racist PM Scott “Dog-Whistle” Morrison.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/liberal-candidate-for-marginal-yan-yean-gone-after-video-surfaces-20181115-p50g43.html via @theage

    You add that to the Nats nazi infiltration its not looking good for the LNP in progressive Victoria.

  16. The Greens who are trying to infiltrate the ALP are the rare few who actually want to accomplish something by joining a Party of government rather than a glorified protest movement.

  17. Steve777

    I think one thing (unintended by its authors Abbott and Dutton) it demonstrated was how far away from the Australian public the Coalition were on ‘progressive’ issues. 61.6-38.4 on this issue, but likely reflective of public opinion on many things the Coalition is against (and are equally certain that their ‘base’ holds dear – again probably a mistaken belief)

    This would have shocked them – remember Abbott pleading near the end that 40% would represent a ‘moral victory’?

  18. “Liberal @TimSmithMP launching a campaign to highlight “infiltration of Labor by Green activists” @9NewsMelb #vicvotes”

    There’s an obvious response: If that means that people who are greatly concerned about the environment and climate change are trying to join or influence Labor, what’s the problem? Labor will listen to what they have to say and consider any proposals on their merits. People concerned about the environment and climate would obviously be wasting their time talking to the Coalition parties, a lost cause as far as those important policy areas are concerned.

  19. Scott Morrison is clearly out of his depth.

    In the race for worst PM ever (well in my lifetime), the candidates have hit the 2 furlong mark, and Rarebit leads by a head to Billy Big Ears, with Slomo commencing a blistering run out wide. They are followed by Leather Jacket which is being quickly gobbled up, the persistent stayer The Lying Rodent, Harold Who Bolted , a disinterested Gotto’s Dream, Trousers Down, I’m Here To Help, Redheaded, The Big Fella third last with The Silver Bodgie and The Undertaker fighting it out at the back of the field.

  20. And who has infiltrated the Liberal Party?

    Why did Malcolm Fraser say the Liberal Party is no longer a Liberal Party?

    In regards the ASX and the economic state of the Nation generally, I have put my summary view earlier today.

    The ASX is but another indicator.

    This is the result of 5 years on right wing ideology – that by achieving a Budget surplus in times of economic stress you adopt austerity settings believing that austerity gives confidence and that confidence will recover the economy – also embracing trickle down economics including tax cuts, which only results in the business collapses we see such as Roger Davis and the likes of NAB, Telstra and ANZ retrenching staff.

    Hence the performance of the ASX, back to where it was 3/4 years ago.

  21. Lizzie

    Thanks, I thought I needed my eyes checked when reading that

    Regarding the “Greens infiltrating Labor” LMAO! From the party being overrun by far right religious extremists!

    There seems to be a pattern emerging here. Any time someone finds out something bad about the Liberals, they say it is actually happening in Labor or the Greens with or without evidence. Disunity – I Labor. Leadership rumblings – in Labor. Infiltration – in Labor! Pathetically predictable.

  22. Re Guytaur @12:41


    Yes. Probably a reaction to this

    @UrbanWronski tweets

    Liberal candidate for marginal Yan Yean, Meralyn Klein, gone after video surfaces of her making threats to Muslim shop-owners. Just following Dutton’s lead, really. And of course racist PM Scott “Dog-Whistle” Morrison.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/liberal-candidate-for-marginal-yan-yean-gone-after-video-surfaces-20181115-p50g43.html via @theage

    You add that to the Nats nazi infiltration its not looking good for the LNP in progressive Victoria.’

    I think that One Nation and other far right groups often say aloud what much of the Liberal base, including some of those who get elected, actually think, and often say in private.

    The “Liberals” will have a lot of problems with infiltrations of far right activists in their ranks, not the least of which would be actually being able to find them among its more right wing members.

  23. It is very unfortunate that, despite being independently cleared of any wrong-doing, Buckingham looks like being forced out for the good of the Greens Party.

    A very, very unsavoury situation indeed.

  24. Socrates @ #310 Thursday, November 15th, 2018 – 9:30 am

    Lizzie

    Thanks, I thought I needed my eyes checked when reading that

    Regarding the “Greens infiltrating Labor” LMAO! From the party being overrun by far right religious extremists!

    There seems to be a pattern emerging here. Any time someone finds out something bad about the Liberals, say it is actually happening in Labor or the Greens with or without evidence. Disunity – I Labor. Leadership rumblings – in Labor. Infiltration – in Labor! Pathetically predictable.

    Also the apparent equating environmentalism with Nazism as both being bad.

  25. Kakuru @ #690 Thursday, November 15th, 2018 – 1:43 pm

    Rex
    “A very, very unsavoury situation indeed.”

    Turns out that the Greens are just another political party. Who knew?

    It’s just really unfortunate that once the independent ruling was handed down the matter wasn’t put to rest.

    To continue the attack on Buckingham under the safety of parliamentary privilege is to my mind bordering on political treachery.

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