BludgerTrack: 54.7-45.3 to Labor

After a dire result from Newspoll, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate is hardly better for the Coalition than it was immediately after the leadership coup.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with this week’s Newspoll and the YouGov Galaxy poll from Queensland, the effect of which is to add another half a point to Labor’s two-party preferred vote for a gain of only one seat, that being in Western Australia. The Queensland poll, which was a relatively good result for the Coalition, negated the effect of Newspoll in that state. Newspoll’s leadership ratings resulted in little change in the trend readings – no doubt it would have been a different story if I had a net satisfaction series for Scott Morrison, who did particularly badly in Newspoll, but there is still too little data for that to be feasible.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

995 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.7-45.3 to Labor”

  1. briefly:

    I agree. Trump is popular within the Republican party, but the party is shrinking.

    Another positive for Democrats is those 7 governorships they got back off Republicans in terms of redistricting following the 2020 census. Preventing Republican gerrymandering is critical.

  2. Steadily marching towards 100 vs 45….. A well deserved century!

    A message to Shorten and the ALP: Preselect every single candidate extra wisely…. they are all in with a chance!

  3. Confessions says:

    Thursday, November 15, 2018 at 9:57 am
    The Justice Department pushed back on Wednesday against accusations that President Trump’s appointment of Matthew G. Whitaker as acting attorney general was illegal

    Trump is a rogue POTUS….no doubt at all.

  4. I hope you’re right Tom, but the record of Trump’s Pentecostalist-saturated USA and the Happy Clapper Guatemalan President’s concurrence on Jerusalem can’t be ignored.

    So far the only countries that have moved their embassies to Jerusalem are those heavily under the influence of fundamentalist Christianity, either directly spiritually or as a vital voting bloc.

    I’ve dealt with a few Happies in my life. Nothing – repeat NOTHING – sways them from their beliefs or their course. Outsiders that assume fundamentalist Christians are open to compromise do so at their own risk.

  5. Alpo says:
    Thursday, November 15, 2018 at 10:21 am
    Steadily marching towards 100 vs 45….. A well deserved century!

    A message to Shorten and the ALP: Preselect every single candidate extra wisely…. they are all in with a chance!

    We have some great candidates in WA….will win their contests and make a great contribution to the next Parliament and the coming Labor government…

  6. BB

    Moving an embassy – especially in Israel – would take a great deal of time. New premises would have to be located in Jerusalem and a lot of work on security done.

    It’s not beyond Morrison to actually decide to move the embassy, but it could not be implemented in the life of this government and Labor would simply roll back the decision.

    Personally, I think that he is continuing with this charade only because he wants to show a process – remembering that the announcement was to ‘consider’ moving the embassy, not to actually move it. So, within a month he will announce that a proper and careful review has been completed and it has been decided that the embassy will stay in Tel Aviv for the time being.

    Given Morrison’s propensity for really dumb announcements and stunts, I strongly suspect this one was more in that line than some sort of fulfilment of his religion’s apocalyptic end times prophesy.


  7. guytaur says:
    Thursday, November 15, 2018 at 9:43 am
    I am not in favour of Clinton running for the reasons outlined in the first paragraph. However she should not be stopped from running and failing if thats her desire in a primary contest.

    Guytaur
    Clinton should not run for at least 2 runs
    1. Did you notice her challenger in primaries came from outside the party. Sanders was an independent, joined Democrats to run in primaries. Do you know why nobody inside her party challenged her? Because she ensured that nobody did.
    2. She is the 2nd most unpopular candidate ever to run for POTUS, Trump being the first.
    3. If Clinton runs again, it will energise Republican base like never before.
    4. It shows that Democrats cannot move beyond Clintons after the damage they did by ensuring Trump victory.

  8. We should expect swings in metro marginals of between 4 and 8% in WA. If things continue to go backwards for the Liberals, we may see swings to Labor touching 10% in some areas. I think there are only 3-4 seats the Liberals should consider to be safe…Curtin, O’Connor, Moore, Tangney….everything else is vulnerable. I also think the Liberals may win just 2 Senate seats here, as their PV falls into the 20s or very low 30s.

  9. Ven

    If you had read the first paragraph you would have realised why I agree.

    Thats not the point. The point is the different standard required for men and women.

    All the bad reasons to run applied to Howard yet he still got to be Prime Minister.

    I tried to make the point that in political terms I didn’t think she was a good candidate the last time around let alone run again.

  10. TOPF…Morrison is as thick as 2 bricks. He is capable of acting from religiously-inspired impulse, contrary to reason and good sense. I hope you’re right. I’m prepared to be disappointed. He is an utter fool.

  11. Ven

    I’m with Guytaur re Clinton. Personally, I think she will be dissuaded from running on the basis that she is going to be whacked in the primaries. There are too many supporters (not Sandersistas) within the Democratic Party who believe her time has passed or who even blame her for her defeat. In 2016 she seemed such an obvious candidate that potential opponents were dissuaded. Now it is the other way around.

    But if she wants to run, then it’s her call. Trying to suppress her would be no different to suppressing Sanders.

  12. Washington Post columnist warns release of Trump’s tax returns will open ‘a Pandora box of scandals’

    President Donald Trump’s White House has been criticized this week for his chaotic leadership style and multiple scandals unfolding every day.

    One scandal hovering around the White House is Trump’s refusal to release his tax returns.

    “There’s ordinary White House chaos, and then there’s Trump White House chaos,” Paul Waldman, opinion writer for The Washington Post wrote.

    He said that if Democrats get their hands on Trump’s tax returns that it might open up a “Pandora’s box of scandal.”

    “Nothing is more upsetting to Trump than being considered a loser, even temporarily. But I suspect that the prospect of having his tax returns made public has him even more frightened,” he wrote.

    He said, “Everything we know about Trump’s career — not least the recent revelation that he and his family engaged in a years-long conspiracy to commit tax fraud on an absolutely massive scale — suggests that those returns will be a Pandora’s box of scandal.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/11/washington-post-writer-warns-that-release-of-trumps-tax-returns-will-open-a-pandora-box-of-scandals/

  13. Briefly

    TOPF…Morrison is as thick as 2 bricks. He is capable of acting from religiously-inspired impulse, contrary to reason and good sense. I hope you’re right. I’m prepared to be disappointed. He is an utter fool.

    ________________________________________

    Briefly, I agree he is thick. But that thickness manifests itself in his self-belief in his marketing genius, rather than his religious belief. There is a pattern of ridiculous brain-farts so far – only some of which could possibly be attributed to his religious belief. For example, there is nothing religious about his stupidly conceived bus (copied from Bill Shorten last election, but neglecting the fact that Shorten used the bus DURING an election campaign and SHORTEN was the Opposition leader, not the guy who is purportedly running the country).

  14. This is sure/likely to sink any ambition Avenatti had about running as a candidate in 2020

    Michael Avenatti arrested in Los Angeles on domestic violence charges: report

    Attorney Michael Avenatti has been arrested for felony domestic violence, TMZ reports.

    A law enforcement source told the publication that Avenatti’s estranged wife filed a domestic violence report and that her face was “swollen and bruised.”

    Avenatti reportedly “kicked her out” of a Century City apartment on Wednesday.

    TMZ reports the woman ran out of the building, screaming into her phone, “I can’t believe you did this to me.”

    Security then brought her back inside the building.

    Avenatti reportedly showed up within minutes and ran into the building after her, repeatedly screaming, “She hit me first.”

    “This is bullsh*t, this is f*cking bullsh*t” he reportedly added.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/11/michael-avenatti-arrested-los-angeles-domestic-violence-charges-report/

  15. TPOF

    Slight correction to your post. You are right on the marketing. Which is why BB could be right.

    As for the bus thing. Its not campaign time is the essence. Caretaker mode means Oppo is in same position as PM. Both parties have leaders on buses during election campaigns.

  16. Akubra

    ‘So does that mean she could still stand as an independent?’

    Like Hanson, in her first incarnation, the Liberal candidate’s name will still be on the ballot.

    Hanson was elected in these circumstances and then sat as an indie.

  17. Trump is in a ‘dark mood’ and ‘pissed at damn near everyone’ — including Melania: White House official

    A White House official who spoke with CNN relayed the president’s latest mood amid potential staffing shakeups — and the outlook is grim.

    Host Jake Tapper noted that aides described “a darker than normal cloud hovering over the Oval Office.”

    The host also noted that a source told White House correspondent Kaitlan Collins that Trump “was furious” that First Lady Melania Trump issued a rare public statement condemning a national security adviser prior to that adviser’s ouster.

    That move, Tapper said, made Trump worry he looked like “a bossed around husband.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/11/trump-dark-mood-pissed-damn-near-everyone-including-melania-white-house-official/

  18. ABC News 24 is spending a lot of time on China and Nuclear Fusion.

    I hope its true this time. If its real then a lot of science fiction suddenly becomes reality.

  19. One really does have a giggle to one’s self when one hears some of the stupid things Morrison says in answer to journos’ questions.

    “I’m hearing, and I’m listening, therefore I’m doing” was just one of them.

    Funniest if all is that Morrison seems to believe these marketing-speak declarations are actually swallowed. No-one calls him a liar to his face, so he reckons he put one over them. That cracks me up every time.

  20. The Queensland senator said that centre-right conservative politicians, such as himself, can’t say the word abortion without being “attacked” by the Greens.

    “We can’t open our traps, you cannot say the word abortion without being attacked by this mob of almost — I’d say grubs if I didn’t think you were gonna make me withdraw it, Mr Acting Deputy President, but it’s out there now,” O’Sullivan told the Senate.

    “These people come and attack me for my religious basis the other day, using words like rosary beads, because I had the audacity to raise issues around late-term abortions where babies that are only minutes away from getting a smack on the arse and a name are being aborted under the policies of the Australian Greens.”

    This is typical exaggeration by the so-called ‘pro-lifers’. They speak as if every termination is a murder of a full-term baby.

    A later-term abortion is one performed at or after 24 weeks’ gestation. According to the most recent figures from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, 0.7% of abortions were carried out at or after 20 weeks. Most (94.6%) abortions in Australia take place before 13 weeks of gestation.

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/aliceworkman/nationals-senator-barry-osullivan-gender-female-abortion

  21. meher baba @ #565 Thursday, November 15th, 2018 – 9:13 am

    Nobody wants to comment about Cate Faehrmann’s article in the SMH this morning.?

    I have no idea whether or not what she says is true, but she doesn’t pull any punches: she appears to be claiming that it’s all about factional politics and nothing else.

    Cate Faehrmann plays factional politics in The Greens harder than ANYONE else. That’s why she has sprung into action in the media. You can count on it.

  22. I’d say grubs if I didn’t think you were gonna make me withdraw it

    So, Barry O’Sullivan found a form of words to say it anyway.

    Who’s the grub? He’s the grub!

  23. Clevah!

    Pearson In The Wind
    ‏@LukeLPearson

    Every few weeks I cut my kids’ allowances by $5 then, when they get upset, I reinstate them. I’ve done that 10 times in 2018 meaning that I have increased funding for their allowances by $50/week this year alone. #mathpol

  24. Eddy Jokovich
    @EddyJokovich
    6m6 minutes ago

    Great progress for women in Parliament! Nationals female Senator Barry O’Sullivan becomes the first woman in parliament to wear a full suit and goatee and mustache. Excellent news! #auspol

  25. Great progress for women in Parliament! Nationals female Senator Barry O’Sullivan becomes the first woman in parliament to wear a full suit and goatee and mustache. Excellent news! #auspol

    _________________________________

    The real problem will be when she does reassignment surgery. After the penis is removed there will be nothing left.

  26. This account of how Mr. Zuckerberg and Ms. Sandberg navigated Facebook’s cascading crises, much of which has not been previously reported, is based on interviews with more than 50 people. They include current and former Facebook executives and other employees, lawmakers and government officials, lobbyists and congressional staff members. Most spoke on the condition of anonymity because they had signed confidentiality agreements, were not authorized to speak to reporters or feared retaliation.

    Facebook declined to make Mr. Zuckerberg and Ms. Sandberg available for comment. In a statement, a spokesman acknowledged that Facebook had been slow to address its challenges but had since made progress fixing the platform.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/14/technology/facebook-data-russia-election-racism.html

  27. On Jerusalem, I saw reference to a comment by Pyne saying that if they moved the Embassy to West Jerusalem they could also establish a Palestinian Consulate in East Jerusalem.

    This to me has some merit as it reinforces clearly and absolutely a commitment to a two State solution, although I would establish the Consulate first and then look to move the Embassy.

    This article gives the interesting history and status of the Embassies and Consulates in Jerusalem.

    Jerusalem Already Has Plenty of Embassies—Just Not to Israel

    http://www.thetower.org/article/jerusalem-already-has-plenty-of-embassies-just-not-to-israel/

  28. TPOF @ #265 Thursday, November 15th, 2018 – 7:45 am

    Great progress for women in Parliament! Nationals female Senator Barry O’Sullivan becomes the first woman in parliament to wear a full suit and goatee and mustache. Excellent news! #auspol

    _________________________________

    The real problem will be when she does reassignment surgery. After the penis is removed there will be nothing left.

    What toilet does O’Sullivan now use?

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