BludgerTrack: 54.7-45.3 to Labor

After a dire result from Newspoll, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate is hardly better for the Coalition than it was immediately after the leadership coup.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with this week’s Newspoll and the YouGov Galaxy poll from Queensland, the effect of which is to add another half a point to Labor’s two-party preferred vote for a gain of only one seat, that being in Western Australia. The Queensland poll, which was a relatively good result for the Coalition, negated the effect of Newspoll in that state. Newspoll’s leadership ratings resulted in little change in the trend readings – no doubt it would have been a different story if I had a net satisfaction series for Scott Morrison, who did particularly badly in Newspoll, but there is still too little data for that to be feasible.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

995 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.7-45.3 to Labor”

  1. There’s good news for Labor from Richmond, where it had been thought Labor had been damaged by the Liberals’ decision not to field a candidate. The poll suggests Labor member Richard Wynne should be able to survive regardless, recording a 49% to 42% lead over Greens candidate Kathleen Maltzahn (33.3% to 31.5% in 2014, when the Liberals polled 20.7%), and a 54-46 lead on two-party preferred.

    I thought nath was the expert on the Inner City Melbourne seats and everyone in their share houses, and the Yuppies, voted Green because their friends did and they just wanted to go along to get along!?!

  2. C@tmomma
    I thought nath was the expert on the Inner City Melbourne seats and everyone in their share houses, and the Yuppies, voted Green because their friends did and they just wanted to go along to get along!?!
    _______________________________
    I’m as expert as anyone. There is a chance that Richmond and the other ALP seats might not fall to the Greens this election. A rising tide lifts all boats and the polls indicate that Andrews might increase his majority. But this only delays the inevitable long term shift to the Greens in these areas.

  3. nath
    “But this only delays the inevitable long term shift to the Greens in these areas.”

    Yeah yeah. I’ve been hearing this for the past two decades.

  4. Kakuru
    says:
    Thursday, November 15, 2018 at 4:31 pm
    nath
    “But this only delays the inevitable long term shift to the Greens in these areas.”
    Yeah yeah. I’ve been hearing this for the past two decades.
    ____________________
    Then you must have noticed how the Greens have 3 state seats in inner Melbourne and the Federal electorate of Melbourne. Congrats, your ears are working fine.

  5. Rex Douglas:

    If Buckingham was ‘independently cleared’, why would he go? It strikes me that the investigation of him was far from independent.

    As for West, this is what the WA Premier said:

    Darren West retweeted a list of “Ten Rape Prevention Tips” which included “when you see a woman walking by herself, leave her alone”.

    He then deleted his Twitter account.

    In his final post, Mr West said he was following the lead of federal Labor MP Ed Husic, who bowed out of the social media platform’s “bully pulpit” last year.

    But Mr McGowan told 6PR radio on Tuesday: “I rang him and said he should get off”.

    “He made a mistake. He retweeted something without reading it properly,” Mr McGowan said.

    McGowan handled the matter with alacrity and it would seem that all West was guilty of it that retweeted something he hadn’t read properly. I do concede though, he should’ve known better.

  6. Ketan Joshi

    Nov 12

    One thing I will never understand about dominant media narratives on discrimination is why sexism is reported as universally abhorrent whereas racism is presented as an idea that should be freely debated and considered.

  7. nath:

    [‘Goll Name Meaning. English: nickname for a silly person, from Middle English golle ‘unfledged bird’.’]

    As a senior lecturer I’m sure you’d rebuke a student who attacked the person in lieu of the subject(?).

  8. Zoidlord
    says:
    Thursday, November 15, 2018 at 4:48 pm
    @Ven
    I’m talking about Nath, Rex and co attacking Labor on women issues in WA, but have not attacked their own for their own issues.
    _____________________________________
    I am not a member of the Greens, though I do support them. I’ll leave it to the party to determine what candidates to endorse etc. I mean there are claims about Bill Shorten about is there not? Who is to say what the truth of any allegation is? Not me. I just pointed out that the W.A Labor party stood by their man after he reposted stupid jokes.


  9. steve davis says:
    Thursday, November 15, 2018 at 12:26 pm
    Lizzie
    That should be todays caption required photo.

    Come on baby let us kiss right here

  10. Mavis Smith
    says:
    Thursday, November 15, 2018 at 4:51 pm
    nath:
    [‘Goll Name Meaning. English: nickname for a silly person, from Middle English golle ‘unfledged bird’.’]
    As a senior lecturer I’m sure you’d rebuke a student who attacked the person in lieu of the subject(?).
    _______________________
    I’m very professional Mavis. On here, not so much.

  11. “and the Yuppies, voted Green because their friends did and they just wanted to go along to get along!?!”….. The Lib-Yuppies are just after impressing the Greens girls, hoping to reap a bit of a reward (Neocon girls are just…. too complicated)… But in the end Neocon Mum and Dad will prevail: the inheritance is more important than a bit of ephemeral fun….

  12. Mavis Smith
    As a senior lecturer I’m sure you’d rebuke a student who attacked the person in lieu of the subject(?).
    ___________________
    Then again, maybe I am just a student, or Michael Kroger, or even William Bowe’s alter ego. I could be the Black Wiggle himself. I could be none of these things. The possibilities are endless.

  13. nath
    “I mean there are claims about Bill Shorten about is there not? Who is to say what the truth of any allegation is? Not me.”

    No, not you. Your hands are clean.

    There’s a fine line (or perhaps no line at all) between (1) making an allegation, and (2) drawing attention to an allegation made by someone else.

  14. nath:

    Well, I’m on relying on your post of some time ago, where you said you are a senior lecturer/Assoc. Prof.

    I do trust you were not guilty of impersonation – not of the fraudulent type of course.

    Personally, I’d never publicly reveal my area of expertise.


  15. Steve777 says:
    Thursday, November 15, 2018 at 1:34 pm
    I think that One Nation and other far right groups often say aloud what much of the Liberal base, including some of those who get elected, actually think, and often say in private.

    The “Liberals” will have a lot of problems with infiltrations of far right activists in their ranks, not the least of which would be actually being able to find them among its more right wing members.

    The savig grac is tht Hanson cannot become PM. Compare & contrast with America
    I think that Trump and and his supporters often say aloud what much of the Republican base, including some of those who get elected, actually think, and often say in private.

  16. I overheard a argument At McDonald’s of all places where the wife (I think it was, could be his Daughter) was discussing something with her partner or father.

    Her Partner or father said to her, what about Church on Sunday? He said, She said she doesn’t care.

    He went into silence.

    That is the entire problem with Church. Brain washing people to have people go to church above all other things.

  17. Mavis Smith
    says:
    Thursday, November 15, 2018 at 5:04 pm
    nath:
    Well, I’m on relying on your post of some time ago, where you said you are a senior lecturer/Assoc. Prof.
    I do trust you were not guilty of impersonation – not of the fraudulent type of course.
    Personally, I’d never publicly reveal my area of expertise.
    ___________________________________
    Oh yes I had forgot! I wouldn’t reveal my area either Mavis. But lie through my teeth for shits and giggles, sure!

  18. ok i will put 50/50 odds for trump to resign, sooner than later – the last days show how thin skinned he is – he cannot take failure or transparency – he will jump before he is trapped

    actually have not heard of such outcome – it might be elsewhere but otherwise own intuition from the erratic behaviour of last week

    if happens a great election outcome


  19. Rex Douglas says:
    Thursday, November 15, 2018 at 1:47 pm
    Kakuru @ #690 Thursday, November 15th, 2018 – 1:43 pm

    Rex
    It is very unfortunate that, despite being independently cleared of any wrong-doing, Buckingham looks like being forced out for the good of the Greens Party.
    “A very, very unsavoury situation indeed.”

    Turns out that the Greens are just another political party. Who knew?

    It’s just really unfortunate that once the independent ruling was handed down the matter wasn’t put to rest.

    To continue the attack on Buckingham under the safety of parliamentary privilege is to my mind bordering on political treachery.

    Rex, who attacked Buckingham? It was his colleague & Di Natali asked him not be part of Green Ticket. But the problem is the independent report was never released for public consumption. It was Buckingham who said that he was cleared & apparently he threatened the woman in question with defamation case if she talks about it in public.

  20. Local paper Perth Voice is reporting that Jim Grayden has been selected as Liberal candidate for federal Perth. He stood as an independent Liberal in the July by-election when the Libs decided not to field a candidate. Elected unopposed last Thursday following lawyer Tamahra Dempsey’s withdrawal from the contest. His claim to fame is that his father Bill, 98, is one of only two Liberals elected when Menzies won in 1949.

    Probably reported here and elsewhere previously but I didn’t see it.

  21. Buckingham wasn’t “cleared” by the independent investigation. The report said there wasn’t enough indisputable evidence to make adverse findings or similar wording. It didn’t say that there was no true to the allegation.
    In a civil law court that’s all you need but in politics it isn’t necessarily enough.


  22. C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, November 15, 2018 at 4:22 pm
    There’s good news for Labor from Richmond, where it had been thought Labor had been damaged by the Liberals’ decision not to field a candidate. The poll suggests Labor member Richard Wynne should be able to survive regardless, recording a 49% to 42% lead over Greens candidate Kathleen Maltzahn (33.3% to 31.5% in 2014, when the Liberals polled 20.7%), and a 54-46 lead on two-party preferred.

    I thought nath was the expert on the Inner City Melbourne seats and everyone in their share houses, and the Yuppies, voted Green because their friends did and they just wanted to go along to get along!?!

    V ictorian ALP need to win all the Lower House Green seats to maitain Lower House Majority. How is the polling going in those Green seats?

  23. Ven @ #771 Thursday, November 15th, 2018 – 5:14 pm


    Rex Douglas says:
    Thursday, November 15, 2018 at 1:47 pm
    Kakuru @ #690 Thursday, November 15th, 2018 – 1:43 pm

    Rex
    It is very unfortunate that, despite being independently cleared of any wrong-doing, Buckingham looks like being forced out for the good of the Greens Party.
    “A very, very unsavoury situation indeed.”

    Turns out that the Greens are just another political party. Who knew?

    It’s just really unfortunate that once the independent ruling was handed down the matter wasn’t put to rest.

    To continue the attack on Buckingham under the safety of parliamentary privilege is to my mind bordering on political treachery.

    Rex, who attacked Buckingham? It was his colleague & Di Natali asked him not be part of Green Ticket. But the problem is the independent report was never released for public consumption. It was Buckingham who said that he was cleared & apparently he threatened the woman in question with defamation case if she talks about it in public.

    Well, I’m sure if Buckingham was lying about the reports findings the author would correct the record.
    Also the fact that the lower house Greens mp continued the attack under parliamentary privilege suggests Buckingham isn’t lying about the reports findings.

    But if you’re intent on a conspiracy, go for it.

  24. shellbell

    Has she passed away? Nothing about it online that I can see.

    I met her a few times long ago. Her politics aren’t the same as mine, but she is/was a nice person.

  25. Paddy Manning is not impressed with FauxMo:

    As it limps towards the end of 2018, the Morrison government is gradually establishing its own grand narrative – one of staggering ineptitude as it lurches from one self-inflicted crisis to another. On decisions from Jerusalem to Foodbank, there is no overarching purpose here, there is no direction or strategy, there are only missteps and backdowns, seemingly born of the blinkered pursuit of base political advantage, which never materialises. For a PM schooled in marketing, these are textbook fails. For the federal Opposition, the coup against Malcolm Turnbull has proved the gift that keeps on giving.

    https://www.themonthly.com.au/today/paddy-manning/2018/15/2018/1542255743/scomo-tion-demise?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=The%20Monthly%20Today%20-%20Thursday%2015%20November%202018&utm_content=The%20Monthly%20Today%20-%20Thursday%2015%20November%202018%20CID_0a3f02c802393fe2b20d9755a0d1486c&utm_source=EDM&utm_term=READ%20ON

  26. Apologies if this has already been posted, but it just shows what an imbecile is Trump:

    Donald Trump has claimed without evidence that people wear disguises to vote illegally in Florida as the state hurtles towards a Thursday deadline for completing vital election recounts…

    On Wednesday the US president once again stirred the pot. “The Republicans don’t win and that’s because of potentially illegal votes,” Trump told the conservative Daily Caller website. “When people get in line that have absolutely no right to vote and they go around in circles. Sometimes they go to their car, put on a different hat, put on a different shirt, come in and vote again. Nobody takes anything. It’s really a disgrace what’s going on.”

    He also called for new national ID laws with a bizarre assertion: “If you buy a box of cereal – you have a voter ID.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/nov/14/florida-voting-donald-trump-disguises-midterms

  27. Ok, we never voted for Scotty as our Prime Minister, but why is he lying to the nation about foreign leaders telling him the Jerusalem Embassy ScottyFart ™ is a threat to good neighbourly relations?

    By David Crowe & Karuni Rompies
    15 November 2018 — 4:55pm

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison has encountered more objections to his policy shift on Israel, as a prominent Asian leader warns that questions over Palestine are contributing to terrorism.

    Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad raised the issue during a meeting with Mr Morrison in Singapore on Thursday on the sidelines of the East Asia Summit of regional leaders.

    “I pointed out that in dealing with terrorism, one has to know the causes,” Dr Mahathir told reporters after the meeting.

    “Adding to the cause for terrorism is not going to be helpful, I pointed that out.”

    An Australian source said Mr Morrison and Dr Mahathir had a general discussion about terrorism in their meeting but this did not include the question of whether Australia would move its embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.

    As the meeting ended, however, Dr Mahathir said the issue of Palestine was a contributing factor to terrorism, but he did not say Australia was contributing to that problem, the source added.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/backlash-to-embassy-review-worsens-as-malaysian-pm-warns-on-causes-adding-to-terrorism-20181115-p50gb8.html

  28. The Guardian reports that the Minerals Council has backed the Coalition’s plan to underwrite new power generation, and has warned Labor to honour any contracts negotiated by the Morrison government before the next election.

    The Morrison government wouldn’t sign these contracts, so far behind in the polls and so close to an election, would they!?!

  29. Looking at the unemployment figures for October, I can see why its ignored on this site. The national rate is at a 6yr low of 5.0%. The Coalition can run an economy but have no idea about the political game. Labor are brilliant at the political game but are hopeless at running an economy and actually managing money and maintaining cost control.
    NSW’s rate is now 4.4% and two basket cases after disastrous Labor mess of governments in Tasmania and South Aust are now 5.3% and 5.4% respectively, a massive improvement. Guess who’s now at the bottom, yes WA and QLD. WA is at 5.7%, and QLD the most union run government in the nation has had another blow out of 0.3% to a woeful 6.3%. Fact is Labor policies as we know are job-destroying and thats the key to everything.

  30. C@tmomma @ #797 Thursday, November 15th, 2018 – 6:10 pm

    The Guardian reports that the Minerals Council has backed the Coalition’s plan to underwrite new power generation, and has warned Labor to honour any contracts negotiated by the Morrison government before the next election.

    The Morrison government wouldn’t sign these contracts, so far behind in the polls and so close to an election, would they!?!

    Labor should announce now that any contracts for coal-based power stations will be cancelled after the election.

  31. In the last Federal election the number of Greens in Parliament fell by one from 11 to 10.

    I think in Victoria the number of Greens in Parliament is similarly likely to fall from the current 8 to maybe 6 or 7.

    It will be interesting to see if Di Natale could spin this as a massive triumph like he tried to after the fall in numbers at the Federal election.

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