BludgerTrack: 54.7-45.3 to Labor

After a dire result from Newspoll, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate is hardly better for the Coalition than it was immediately after the leadership coup.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with this week’s Newspoll and the YouGov Galaxy poll from Queensland, the effect of which is to add another half a point to Labor’s two-party preferred vote for a gain of only one seat, that being in Western Australia. The Queensland poll, which was a relatively good result for the Coalition, negated the effect of Newspoll in that state. Newspoll’s leadership ratings resulted in little change in the trend readings – no doubt it would have been a different story if I had a net satisfaction series for Scott Morrison, who did particularly badly in Newspoll, but there is still too little data for that to be feasible.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

995 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.7-45.3 to Labor”

  1. michael
    Any set of economic fools can grow debt, redistribute wealth, suppress real wages growth, and turn the masses into the working poor. Household debt is world-record quality; savings have been debauched; housing equity is plunging down the chute and share values are back to where they were before the Coalition’s Ship of Fools set sail under Captain Abbott. Brilliant stuff.
    Add the massive decline in personal freedoms, the acceleration of Australia’s CO2 emissions, Global Warming farmer beggars, a half dead Reef, the trashing of national cultural institutions, the alienation of our traditional friends and allies (other than Trump’s US) and a biodiversity holocaust…
    The Coalition is not just any set of fools.
    They excel.

  2. There is no more people employed as a percentage of the population than there was 10 yrs ago.It was 62% then and its 62% now.The creation of over a million jobs by the Libs is a total myth and they are never called for it especially by the MSM.

  3. Player One @ #791 Thursday, November 15th, 2018 – 6:22 pm

    C@tmomma @ #797 Thursday, November 15th, 2018 – 6:10 pm

    The Guardian reports that the Minerals Council has backed the Coalition’s plan to underwrite new power generation, and has warned Labor to honour any contracts negotiated by the Morrison government before the next election.

    The Morrison government wouldn’t sign these contracts, so far behind in the polls and so close to an election, would they!?!

    Labor should announce now that any contracts for coal-based power stations will be cancelled after the election.

    The mining unions won’t allow that.

  4. If the LNP lock in contracts, particularly with penalty clauses to cost a new government large amounts in future budgets and the contracts are signed with the knowledge that a new government will not wish to complete these agreements the LNP need to be outed for the corrupt processes it is.
    Legislation needs to formulated to prevent this possibility. The LNP have form and show scant regard for the voters.

  5. A bit more on the Australian Research Council delayed funding announcements saga. This is the second Michael Koziol article this week, presenting the governments reasons for rejecting grants / delaying funding. I think they are softening us up for rejection of particular projects, and possibly even a big cut
    in the funding allocated.

    I have had some good indications that I was likely to be successful this year – so I am just going to spend the rest of the day crying.

    ‘Beggars belief’: Dan Tehan accuses city vice-chancellors of neglecting regional research
    Federal Education Minister Dan Tehan has hit back at the country’s most prestigious universities amid an increasingly ugly stoush over funding, accusing them of neglecting research that would benefit regional and remote students.
    ……..
    In comments directed chiefly at the Group of Eight universities, Mr Tehan slammed the major universities for failing to undertake research that would help bridge the “major discrepancy” between tertiary attainment in the capital cities and the bush.

    Group of Eight chief executive Vicki Thomson said Mr Tehan was wrong to assert there had been no ARC-funded research into regional education. She pointed to research in the minister’s own state of Victoria that looked into “the factors that attract and retain school leavers and tertiary graduates in cities, towns and rural areas”. The University of Queensland received $150,000 for the project in 2012.

    The University of Western Australia has a Centre for Regional Development which has received ARC grants. Universities also cited independently-funded projects. For example, Sydney University has started a three-year evaluation of educational enrichment activities in greater western Sydney.

    But the accusations from Mr Tehan – who took over the education portfolio after the coup against Malcolm Turnbull in August – reveal deep suspicions in the government about major universities’ research priorities.
    ……
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/beggars-belief-dan-tehan-accuses-city-vice-chancellors-of-neglecting-regional-research-20181114-p50fyj.html

  6. “The Guardian reports that the Minerals Council has backed the Coalition’s plan to underwrite new power generation, and has warned Labor to honour any contracts negotiated by the Morrison government before the next election.”

    Be interesting to see the ALP reaction to this kind of thuggery??

  7. Boerwar, I think I understand your response. Its better to have less jobs and so a lower standard of living for everybody ( more jobs mean more tax revenue and everyone in the end is better off except for the lazy who won’t work) and worry more about other so-called important issues

  8. @michael

    Instead of using overall figures give us the details Michael.

    I am assuming you are ignoring the part time, casual and fall of fultime jobs right?

  9. imacca @ #800 Thursday, November 15th, 2018 – 6:32 pm

    “The Guardian reports that the Minerals Council has backed the Coalition’s plan to underwrite new power generation, and has warned Labor to honour any contracts negotiated by the Morrison government before the next election.”

    Be interesting to see the ALP reaction to this kind of thuggery??

    faux outrage… then acceptance

  10. Was that a dinky-di comment?
    Labor “good” at politics and “bad” at economics? Surely an grown-up could not see life in such simplistic terms?
    As a riposte, I think WA Labor was left with a 38 billion $$$ deficit but the Barnet government but conversely, Labor left a 6 billion $$ surplus was it? when Labor lost the an election it should have not lost 3 elections ago?

  11. Regarding the minerals council demand the ALP honour any contracts signed by the current government.

    Reminds me of the east-west link deal the LNP signed before leaving government at the last Vic state election. A complication was that the outgoing government, knowing they were going to lose, and knowing it was the ALP’s policy to scrap the project, signed a SECRET side letter guaranteeing the construction companies their profit. This money the incoming ALabor government had to hand over.

    I voted on Monday and Michael O’Brian is my local member. So it was with pleasure I told the Liberal HTV hander outer that I could not vote for a person who gave a billion dollars away for nothing. He started to blame Labor (don’t they all) but suddenly stopped when I kept saying (much to the interest of the gathering crowd), that Michael signed the letter and he was responsible and not to blame others. He hated it.

  12. Fake Dinkum has been publicly madsplaining that Widodo and Mahatir have not been talking about you-know-what, that there is nothing to you-know-what and, even if Widodo and Mahatir DID say something vaguely having to do with you-know-what, Widodo and Mahatir don’t know what they are talking about.
    Plus Fake Dinkum reckons that Ciobo might or might not have actually said on-the-record to a major journalist for a major national newspaper that there is a less than 5% chance that you-know-what will happen. Plus, Fake Dinkum reckons that the Government’s internal processes about you-know-what will reach a landing at about the same time as Santa makes a landing.
    Meanwhile, there is a concentrated burst of let’s-all-forget that Morrison launched a reconsideration of Australia’s attitude to the Iran Nuclear Agreement.

  13. ‘Lynch Pin says:
    Thursday, November 15, 2018 at 6:48 pm

    I don’t think so BW.

    Her nickname is Half Price.’

    Ha! It is certainly not the ‘Price is Right!’

    Could we be looking at ‘Over Priced’?

  14. …signed a SECRET side letter guaranteeing the construction companies their profit. This money the incoming ALabor government had to hand over.

    Why wasn’t there an enquiry into that? Why didn’t the then new Labor Government refuse to pay anything beyond costs incurred and dare the contractors to sue?

    Maybe someone should have gone to jail.

  15. Re Steve Davis @6:27 PM “The creation of over a million jobs by the Libs is a total myth and they are never called for it especially by the MSM.”

    One million jobs in 5 years is basically what is required to keep pace with the growth of the population (and work force), which have both been growing at about 1.5% per annum. These jobs weren’t ‘created’ by the Coalition Government, which was busy cutting staff and budgets anywhere it could do so without harming its donors, while overseeing the shutdown of auto manufacturing in Australia. After 5 years of Coalition Government, there are about a million more jobs, a work force about a million bigger and a population about 2 million greater.

    Unemployment didn’t increase. Wacky do. It’s a non-achievement.

  16. PeeBee @ #816 Thursday, November 15th, 2018 – 6:50 pm

    Regarding the minerals council demand the ALP honour any contracts signed by the current government.

    Reminds me of the east-west link deal the LNP signed before leaving government at the last Vic state election. A complication was that the outgoing government, knowing they were going to lose, and knowing it was the ALP’s policy to scrap the project, signed a SECRET side letter guaranteeing the construction companies their profit. This money the incoming ALabor government had to hand over.

    I voted on Monday and Michael O’Brian is my local member. So it was with pleasure I told the Liberal HTV hander outer that I could not vote for a person who gave a billion dollars away for nothing. He started to blame Labor (don’t they all) but suddenly stopped when I kept saying (much to the interest of the gathering crowd), that Michael signed the letter and he was responsible and not to blame others. He hated it.

    Good for you PeeBee

    It was an act of treachery against the good people of Victoria by the Libs for which they should not be forgiven.

  17. Watch out! Albo has made a speech.

    “ALBO’S STINGING ATTACK ON LIBS, GREENS
    Anthony Albanese has launched a passionate plea to inner city voters to return an Andrews Government minister during a stinging attack on the Greens and the Liberals.” (Hun headline)

  18. citizen says:

    Watch out! Albo has made a speech.

    “ALBO’S STINGING ATTACK ON LIBS, GREENS
    Anthony Albanese has launched a passionate plea to inner city voters to return an Andrews Government minister during a stinging attack on the Greens and the Liberals.” (Hun headline)

    Reading between the lines the headline actually says……
    “ALBO’S STINGING ATTACK ON LIBillShorten, GREENS

  19. PeeBee
    It rather looks like they are going to try to force following governments to use tax payer funds to subsidise coal fired power stations.
    After 30 years of global warming science this must surely be the last gasp of a clatch of global warming criminals?

  20. Steve777 @ #819 Thursday, November 15th, 2018 – 6:55 pm

    …signed a SECRET side letter guaranteeing the construction companies their profit. This money the incoming ALabor government had to hand over.

    Why wasn’t there an enquiry into that? Why didn’t the then new Labor Government refuse to pay anything beyond costs incurred and dare the contractors to sue?

    Maybe someone should have gone to jail.

    The contract had to honoured and so to the promise to scrap the dud project.

    It’s well known what the Libs did, despite the likes of Neil Mitchell indulgence in deceit

  21. Thanks Poroti………….the actual figures escaped me but I do know the Carpenter government had left the State coffers in relatively good shape and the debt blew out to a huge amount after Colin. It used to amuse me when the Fed Liberals used to beat Labor about the head with their “debt”stuff when one of their Star Performers racked up $38 billion plus…………………….My main point was a quick rejoinder to the “Labor bad at economics/good at politics” tripe someone was passing off as sensible comment a few posts earlier…………………………

  22. Do you think that Scott Morrison really cares about what are the real causes of terrorism? He needs terrorism. Since 9/11 it’s what the Right have had a death grip on to sustain them when their efforts to implement economic policies that favour their benefactors tank the economy.

  23. I just got a robocall on behalf of a Liberal Senator or MP (can’t remember the name).
    wtte

    What of these four is your main concern, local jobs, health, security, something economic reducing living costs blah blah?
    (local jobs)

    Something or other and I answered
    (Not sure)

    The govt is doing wonders for shipbuilding in SA, is there enough information out there?
    (no) I wonder if this is pushpolling?

    Will you vote Lib, Labor, Centre Allianz,Green, another party?
    (Another party)

    Would you change your vote at the next election?
    (not sure)

    Given a choice , would you vote Liberal over Labor, or Labor over Liberal?
    (Liberal over Labor)

    Who do you think is the better PM, Morrison, Shorten or don’t know.
    (Morrison)

    Are you male or female?
    (Male)

    What is the first number of your age?
    (2)

    The questions are as I remember them. I answered as any decent ALP member would. 🙂

  24. Goll

    The so called East/West link in Melbourne – and there were unknown side letters to boot!!

    Should have been a Class Action against those Liberal politicians involved in that charade

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