YouGov Galaxy: Labor leads 54-46 in Richmond, 56-44 in Geelong

Good news for Labor in seats where they face challenges from the Greens and a high-profile independent.

The Herald Sun has two more YouGov Galaxy robopolls of individual electorates for the Victorian state election, with samples of 500 to 550. There’s good news for Labor from Richmond, where it had been thought Labor had been damaged by the Liberals’ decision not to field a candidate. The poll suggests Labor member Richard Wynne should be able to survive regardless, recording a 49% to 42% lead over Greens candidate Kathleen Maltzahn (33.3% to 31.5% in 2014, when the Liberals polled 20.7%), and a 54-46 lead on two-party preferred.

There is also a poll for the Geelong electorate, where the Herald Sun seems inordinately keen on the independent candidacy of Darryn Lyons, who was mayor of Geelong at the time of the council’s sacking in April 2016. The poll has Lyons on an actually quite modest 15%, ahead of the Greens on 11% but well behind the Liberals on 28%. Labor incumbent Christine Couzens is on 40%, and leads the Liberal candidate 56-44 after preferences.

Like the Mordialloc and Frankston polls published on Monday, these ones were conducted on Saturday and Sunday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

118 comments on “YouGov Galaxy: Labor leads 54-46 in Richmond, 56-44 in Geelong”

  1. Regarding the Greens vote drop, I do not think we have to look far for the reason. Stories of infighting and sexual harassment, will do far more damage than any policy mistake or backflip. For a party that chases a well educated, progressive demographic, the harassment claims from NSW must be poison.

    As for Liberal vs Labor, Guy is spending a lot of time in marginal Liberal seats for a man hoping for a swing towards him.

  2. Interesting flashback to Westgate Bridge opening

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/flashback-1978-the-west-gate-bridge-opens-20181114-p50fzg.html

    Predictions then were 100,000 vehicles by 1995. Not sure how accurate that was, but it’s now about 200,000. Last year for the first time I went to the memorial under the bridge to the 35 workers who died. It is quite moving to see their names, while the structure they were working on looms overhead.

    But I liked this picture of peak-hour traffic coming in to the city!

    https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.242%2C$multiply_1%2C$ratio_1.776846%2C$width_1059%2C$x_112%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/w_1024/t_sharpen%2Cq_auto%2Cf_auto/564a6abd7cef4d25c207f4bb3149d4d72db7bdf6

  3. I managed to run an Eastern Metro simulation that got the Transport matters candidate elected from a primary of 795 votes.

    And they were elected fourth.

  4. Having backed ALP in Prahran @ 4.00 2 weeks ago, has anyone seen any up to date polling in the electorate, either actual or rumoured. I’m a Windsor resident Sam Hibbins apart from launch has been invisible, Katy Allen seems to be solely based at South Yarra primary, and only Pharaoh seems to be openly seen in public. Surely the current Greens mess must be a death knell to their chances, I can see it having a knock on effect in Richmond, Brunswick and even Northcote . Any info would be great

  5. @3z

    Sometimes a simmering problem has to go horribly, horribly wrong before someone fixes them. If Andrews holds on at this election, his upper house will be hell to deal with. He’ll regret not doing something this term. Guy would probably fare better given the right wing nuts who’ll be there, but will still have headaches.

    Surely this will be the last time.

  6. Assuming 8 micros and even L/R numbers otherwise we could see –
    Labor & Green total 16, LNP 16, micros 8

    I actually think there could be more, up to 12! Imagine –
    Labor & Green total 14, LNP 14, micros 12

    Fun for whoever is in power in the Lower House!
    I suppose you could always tell them that if they make too much trouble you will change the system, and they will likely each disappear after one term. Self-interest is a powerful force, as Keating said (got the line from Jack Lang I think).

  7. The Silver Bodgie @ 9:22 am

    Liberal candidate for marginal Yan Yean gone after anti-Muslim video surfaces

    Note what happened when Pauline Hanson was dis-endorsed by the Liberals in 1996, but her name remained on the ballot paper.

  8. On the Liberals’ website they don’t even list their candidates for Brunswick or Melbourne. They do have their candidate for Northcote. Obviously running in Brunswick and Melbourne truly was a last minute decision. Their biographies on the ABC site are both one line accordingly, as is that for their Northcote candidate.

  9. @Expat

    they have their own internal polling that is more accurate than a lot of published polling.

    Kennet and Kroger are confident that the libs will pick up Prahran from the greens, and a bare minimum of 3 seats from Labor. With the Greens gaining brunswick and richmond a toss up.

    whilst eastern suburbs seats like bayswater, burwood, ringwood, mount waverley, forest hill, box hill, etc. might swing to labor – inevitably they will still fall short in all of them. Also, assuming if there was a statewide 50-50 result, that would imply that the swing to the libs is greater in other marginal seats which would no doubt be a worry for labor.

  10. Unitary State, all your projections are against all known polling and any political Journalist either written or in the media. The might be a slight bump in their vote due to Bourke Street and recent terror projections, Mr Kroger is trying to save his job to keep the ranks happy with all things are looking rosy in Liberal Ranks. The sudden U Turn to have Liberal Candidates in Richmond, Brunswick and Northcote is an example of that, they seem to think up policies on the run and change course on the weather vane of public opinion. I would be most shocked if anything of your projections turn out to be true. The Greens current malaise will only help the ALP in Prahran and harm the Liberals

  11. Unitary State,
    You’re just parroting Kroger’s talking points.
    As for Prahran, I’ll be very surprised if the Liberals win: their candidate’s got corflutes up in Caulfield next door!

  12. Kroger also claimed the verdict in the Cormack case was resounding vindication for him, or something to that effect. Says everything you want to know about his tenuous relationship with facts.

  13. I think that if the Liberals win, it will be by 1 seat.

    The Liberal candidate for Prahran is a very well credentialed and respected pedatrician who might collect the female vote, she has much more class than Guy or Bastiaan or ScoMo.

  14. So, the Poll Tracker for the Vic State election has got ALP up from last election and Libs down (Greens also slightly down, btw)…..

    Good…..

    🙂

  15. I live in the heart of Prahran myself and completely agree with Donski’s observations – not much from Gibbons except by far the most posters, you wouldn’t even know a Liberal candidate was running except for walking past her campaign office which pretty much just has posters about South Yarra Primary, but Pharaoh has been everywhere for 2 months now.

    Interested to know a source for the Liberals thinking they’ll win. Realistically they need to improve their PV to over 45% to win, and two consecutive polls commissioned by different groups showed an almost identical crash to the low 30s, across more than 1100 respondents.

    Now I know seat polling isn’t that accurate and low 30s seems way too low, but actually increasing their PV when separate polls point to a 12% crash seems very unlikely…

    For the record I was called for one of the polls and can confirm the voting intention questions, asked first, were definitely not worded to favour any one party over another.

  16. @Trent

    think of a place of Albert Park, demographic changes in that area have long drifted towards the libs. Prahran is not dissimiliar in that regard, which may explain why the libs are confident of regaining it.

  17. My guess is that the Liberal PV will drop to around 40% in Prahran. With that the ceiling for their 2CP is about 46-47.

    There’s not a single factor that advantages them more in 2018 than 2014 to grow their vote.. But lots of factors against them.

  18. Unitary State,
    My sources in the Liberals tell me that they don’t expect to win — *at best*, Labor will come out with roughly the same majority.
    In any case, there’s no evidence whatsoever for your assumption that parties’ internal polling is “more accurate” than public polling. Why should it be? It may be more granular (God I hate that word) but the hopeless record of public seat polls doesn’t bode well for its accuracy.
    Indeed, in the Liberals’ case, there’s reason to believe their private polling’s been off for some time now. They’ve made a lot of calls about it that have turned out flat wrong: eg I still remember Turnbull in 2016 flagging them winning Werriwa! From what I recall, problems with private polling were a subject of Andrew Robb’s review of that debacle.

  19. Unitary I disagree, I think Prahran is moving the other way with demographic changes. It’s southern half is increasingly hipster while South Yarra is losing its exclusivity with a more progressive demographic moving into high rises.

    Albert Park is different because it was previously working class and became affluent. Prahran was already affluent.

  20. As for the Liberals winning Prahran, they’ve abandoned all hope. Their candidate’s good on paper but a complete neophyte. Which helps explain why she’s allowed herself to be lumbered with “The Real Deal” as her slogan. Groan. Also, as I adverted to earlier, she has corflutes up in the wrong electorate! You can see them east of Grange Rd in Toorak, which is in Malvern!

  21. @Toby Esterhase

    That is the point though, most people agree that on the balance of probabilities it will be a hung parliament.

    I personally cannot see labor possibly reaching 45.

  22. @Unitary State
    Huh? That doesn’t make sense. Did you even read my comment? Even the Liberals’ polling is telling them that the best-case scenario is a Labor majority of 4-8. That’s Labor with at least 46. How do you get to your 45? Are you somehow assuming that Tarneit and Melton won’t go back to Labor?

  23. I’d believe that Toby. A quick look at her Facebook page shows her in Balaclava (wrong seat), Toorak and mostly just South Yarra. So preaching to the converted. She needs to win votes in Prahran and Windsor where you wouldn’t even think she’s running.

    One more point comparing the opposite movement in Albert Park v Prahran…. Albert Park has been Labor held since the 1950s but progressively more marginal, Prahran used to be a safe Liberal seat for decades but has been held by ALP or Greens for 3 of the last 4 terms, which suggests quite different demographic movement.

  24. Prahran seat has added over 6000 registered voters since 2014, I have lived there since 2004, and its predominantly young people and young Families wo have moved in; who are concerned about Climate change, Same Sex Marriage and Nauru and the plight of refugees. Everything that the current Liberal party stands for they abhor, The liberal candidate can bark on what she wants and says she has an independent right to her own alleged progressive views, however the Victorian Liberal party is increasingly beholden to the Christian Right. most of the 6000 new voters are probably agnostic. Lastly that extra population growth hasn’t been in Armadale and Toorak, rather, Prahran South Yarra and Windsor, all whose districts were more left leaning anyway

  25. The Yan yean candidate is clearly a bold face liar when claiming that she didn’t know the video was going to be about muslims when she talks about immigration in same video. This on top her comments about Andrews endorsing terrorism shows she was a loose cannon.
    For their part the Liberty Alliance are claiming that she was planning on defecting to them if elected. Sounds almost as if they weren’t too keen on that idea.
    Clearly something went a miss in the vetting process and they are struggling to get decent candidates in some areas. (Also she had run over a lollypop person once…. I am sure there is a joke in that.)

    PS I doubt she will manage to do a Hanson. Doreen is not Queensland.

  26. @GG
    I’d noticed too.
    I think the eastern suburbs will swing to Labor.
    Everyone talks about the pendulum, but I think this time it’s not much help. The last public poll had Labor at 54 TPP. A TPP that large would normally yield a large majority. I suspect a lot of Liberal margins in the eastern suburbs are somewhat inflated.

  27. Toby Esterhase @ #89 Thursday, November 15th, 2018 – 6:05 pm

    @GG
    I’d noticed too.
    I think the eastern suburbs will swing to Labor.
    Everyone talks about the pendulum, but I think this time it’s not much help. The last public poll had Labor at 54 TPP. A TPP that large would normally yield a large majority. I suspect a lot of Liberal margins in the eastern suburbs are somewhat inflated.

    There’s lot’s of gaslighting and bootstrapping going on here from Libs and Greens.

    They are going to be smashed!

  28. Internal polling is not “more accurate than a lot of published polling.” It is probably less, among other reasons because parties are addicted to tracking polls with very small sample sizes that are about as predictive as the astrology column. Liberal internals in Wentworth had them supposedly losing 41-59 and 45-55 to Phelps at the end, they lost nothing near that badly. Liberal internals in Braddon had them successfully trashing Craig Garland’s vote from high single figures to a few percent, but he actually polled more than they had him at in any poll.

    Parties create this myth that internal polls are better by claiming after the fact that their internal polls showed the result all along. But it’s an untestable claim and should be ignored.

  29. Kevin Bonham @ #91 Thursday, November 15th, 2018 – 6:16 pm

    Internal polling is not “more accurate than a lot of published polling.” It is probably less, among other reasons because parties are addicted to tracking polls with very small sample sizes that are about as predictive as the astrology column. Liberal internals in Wentworth had them supposedly losing 41-59 and 45-55 to Phelps at the end, they lost nothing near that badly. Liberal internals in Braddon had them successfully trashing Craig Garland’s vote from high single figures to a few percent, but he actually polled more than they had him at in any poll.

    Parties create this myth that internal polls are better by claiming after the fact that their internal polls showed the result all along. But it’s an untestable claim and should be ignored.

    In fact, the internal polls are more qualitative than quantitative. Head offices need themes and pithy sayings to frame a message.

  30. Kevin – Totally Right. Internals are often only shown when there is a story the party needs to tell….In Wentworth it was to motivate campaign workers so it was spun as if was going to be the coming of the four horsemen.

    Here they are not being spun because they are telling a story that nobody can work in their favour. A potential wipe up at a general election demotivates the campaign workers (at by-elections you a whole state so you can get the diehards with a message of doom but in a general you need your cousin’s housemates to man all the booths and mailbox etc). Likewise Labor doesn’t want to look like they are cruising as that will give the protest voters an excuse to vote for the Australian Moron Party or the like.

  31. No one hates like ALP haters….but you’d reckon even the most rudimentary political instincts would motivate this guy to STFU for another 8 days.
    ——————-
    The firefighters union has escalated its attack on former Labor government minister Jane Garrett accusing her of “union busting” but it has backed away from campaigning with how-to-vote cards putting her last.

    United Firefighters’ Union boss Peter Marshall said the anti-Garrett how-to-vote cards had been registered with the Victorian Electoral Commission but he would no longer “prosecute” their use in the lead-up to the election on November 24.

    But in a fiery statement Mr Marshall vowed to continue his campaign against Ms Garrett.

    “While the union will not be prosecuting how-to-vote cards it is intended that a public campaign will expose the mistruths and misinformation surrounding this matter and in particular expose the untruths that [Ms] Garrett relied upon”, he said.

  32. Would be nice if Peter Marshall “buried the hatchet” or simply just shut up.
    Is he such an ego maniac that he would risk a Liberal government?

  33. Most Greens voters completely ignore the right wing propaganda that’s pumped out by the mainstream media, especially when it comes from the Murdoch empire. We won’t be swayed by false Labor talking points either. We vote Green because they’re the only party that consistently represents the left and who has Australia’s best interests at heart.

  34. Marshall is not doing himself any favours with the party or trades hall. I suspect the UFU are heading in the same direction as the ETU. Not helpful to the movement or their own union really.

  35. Firefox @ #97 Thursday, November 15th, 2018 – 7:24 pm

    Most Greens voters completely ignore the right wing propaganda that’s pumped out by the mainstream media, especially when it comes from the Murdoch empire. We won’t be swayed by false Labor talking points either. We vote Green because they’re the only party that consistently represents the left and who has Australia’s best interests at heart.

    Do Dah!

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