The Herald Sun has two more YouGov Galaxy robopolls of individual electorates for the Victorian state election, with samples of 500 to 550. There’s good news for Labor from Richmond, where it had been thought Labor had been damaged by the Liberals’ decision not to field a candidate. The poll suggests Labor member Richard Wynne should be able to survive regardless, recording a 49% to 42% lead over Greens candidate Kathleen Maltzahn (33.3% to 31.5% in 2014, when the Liberals polled 20.7%), and a 54-46 lead on two-party preferred.
There is also a poll for the Geelong electorate, where the Herald Sun seems inordinately keen on the independent candidacy of Darryn Lyons, who was mayor of Geelong at the time of the council’s sacking in April 2016. The poll has Lyons on an actually quite modest 15%, ahead of the Greens on 11% but well behind the Liberals on 28%. Labor incumbent Christine Couzens is on 40%, and leads the Liberal candidate 56-44 after preferences.
Like the Mordialloc and Frankston polls published on Monday, these ones were conducted on Saturday and Sunday.
While single seat polls are always suspect, the overall trend seems to be a swing to Labor, a decline for the Greens when in direct competition with Labor and the Liberal Party unable to make any inroads.
I guess the Greens running around threatening to be a handbrake on Government is not playing very well at this election.
It’s also difficult to see where the Libs might pick up the seats they need to rule in their own right. If so, voters might just give Labor momentum to ensure the thumping victory they deserve.
Steve Price just announcing that Andrews and Guy will be having a kind of debate in the seat of Frankston next week. Anyone else heard anything about that?
On those figures, Lyons will be eliminated very early on in the count. The Herald-Sun is keen on him as he adds light and colour. But most of Geelong think of him as a loon. He was elected in confusing mayoral race where there were 16 candidates and he stood out as a “celebrity” (but not a footballer as is often the case in Geelong). But he was a total disaster. The council was sacked and a large part of that was because he had been involved in workplace bullying.
They are debating on Jon Faine’s show 8;30 thursday and something was mentioned about a debate the evening before
GG, if you ask me it sounds like there’s a swing from the Greens to Labor, but the rest of the polls seem more consistent with the earlier statewide 50 or 51/49 polls, than the more recent 54/46. Barely a shift from the Liberals to Labor, maybe none at all, but not much the other way. Certainly much less than you’d guess based on federal polling and news of the state of the state party.
Labor will probably win the premiership, but I wouldn’t be more confident than 2:1.
But it’s also shaping up to be a dull as ditchwater election. You’d think a lineball neck-and-neck election like this would be exciting, but nothing’s happening. If I wasn’t an elections buff I wouldn’t even know there was an election when I leave the house.
I’m bitterly disappointed.
Whatever the ‘debate’ is all about it’s apparently scheduled for next Wednesday evening in Frankston.
Yougov are polling me twice a week, on mobile and landline.
They are fixated on electricity prices. I am a 31 year old male Liberal voter
I bet I am not the only jaded respondent
As I hand out How to Vote I am quite shocked at the number of frail elderly only accepting Liberal HTV.
In Mordialloc the Liberals are preference whispering with Reid and Nolan preferencing Liberal fella. Real obvious when you see Nolan’s fella having long chat with fella who drove up to pack up Reid’s material.
Indicates that Liberals know their brand is on the nose
It looks like the racheting up of the terror threat by Messrs. Morrison, Dutton and Guy has hit a blimp.
That Guy is within striking distance of Andrews, according to some polling, is hard to accept. I’m predicting a comfortable Labor win.
I think the “debate” is on Sky News only on Wed 21st November, and is more a ‘town hall’ one with each candidate presenting separately to the audience. Not sure but thought I heard that somewhere.
The Greens are preferencing Labor ahead of Darren Lyons in Geelong so even if he did finish ahead of the Greens it is likely Labor would have an insurmountable lead to beat either him or the Liberal Freya Fidge.
https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/Elections/HTVC/State2018/4D19E349-55A1-4C79-A612-FE900EC5A9D2/42%20Geelong.pdf
Seat polls shmeet polls. Labor to win in a canter with 50-52 seats.
Mavis Smith
As GG pointed out, it is very hard to see a scenario where the Coalition go from their current 38 seats to win 7 and get a majority at 45.
Which means if they start talking about “unstable minority governments” they will be talking about possibly the only way they could be in government, ‘doing a Bracks’ and getting some independents on side. But even that analogy is difficult to imagine, as those independents are most likely to have taken Coalition seats so unless they want to try and govern with support of a resurgent Greens, 45 seems a bridge too far.
Concerns about “Stability” do influence voter behaviour – and I believe that as Labor has a much greater chance of forming a majority government this ‘vibe’ will help them. And of course it is predicted that perhaps nearly half the vote will be pre-poll which I think is also helping as pre-poll votes tend to reflect the polls at the time they were cast, and Labor has probably had a reasonably good lead over the last two weeks.
At this stage ten days out I am thinking
Labor 48 (Ripon, South Barwon)
Coalition 35
Greens 3
Independent 2 (Ovens Valley)
Upper House = A Dog’s Breakfast (no offence intended to PBer of that name!)
Just ran North Metropolitan through the Upper House calculator. The Liberals get essentially no preferences from anywhere, so if they drop below a quota (16.67%) on primaries (21% last time), they may well win no seats there – I ran a simulation with Liberals on 16.3% and Hinch on 2.1% and Hinch got the last seat. They might live to regret not campaigning in the inner north.
Reason do well on preferences in North Metropolitan, and 3% primary should be enough for them unless the Socialists do particularly well.
If the internal polling was anywhere near 52-48 that was at least election, the Liberals would be singing it to roof tops as a “narrowing”.
There are certainly a percentage of the electorate get Federal and State confused and there will be some blow back from the Canberra leadership mess and then the glorious leadership of ScoMo.
BT
I did some Upper House simulations, and no matter where you look at least one micro gets elected in each region due to the tight preference flows. In some cases (eg Northern Vic) I was often getting two – LibDem seems to get up even with 1.3% primary, often accompanied by DLP or SFF for a 4-1 Right-Left split. And I think as you say Northern Metro could be 4-1 the other way.
I expect 8-12 micros to win seats.
Rocket Rocket @ #13 Wednesday, November 14th, 2018 – 8:50 pm
I could see Prahran, Morwell and Northcote coming to Labor as well.
BSF
Can Morrison please come with his Big Blue Bus (empty or not) to Melbourne’s east, with Sukkar and Kevin Andrews in tow, and show up on cue every time Matthew Guy does some photo-op?
Rocket Rocket:
Thanks for the info. I can’t say I know a lot about Victoria politics, but Guy doesn’t come close to Andrews, who seems moderate and likeable, not that different to Bracks.
i am not biased, but I can’t believe Liberals have a hope but its only a 1 seat majority. Everytime I see the overhead Skyrail at Carnegie and remember the delays at Burke Rd, Neerim Rd,Koornang Rd and Jasper Rd were so bad that Google Maps directed you off Dandenong Rd (5 lanes each way) onto Waverley Rd (2 lanes each way if no parked cars) because of the bank up of traffic.
How can you think Dan Andrews isn’t a shoe-in when you can see what is being built,like the new underground rail line as well as level crossing replacements. But I don’t hold my breath – I get out and work for what I want
GG
Maybe – I think the Greens will retain Prahran. Morwell is strange – I think Ricky Muir should have run for the Upper House in Eastern Vic, he would have had a good chance I think. Northcote – hard to judge what will happen with a Liberal back in the fray.
I am hopeful Labor can pick up at least one of Burwood (3.2), Forest Hill (4.8), Ringwood (5.1), Bayswater (4.6) – the Michael Sukkar (and Julia Banks “Happy Liberal Family”) effect! But I think they may just fall short in them.
billie
I hadn’t followed the Skyrail stuff too closely and had thought it was only on the Frankston line. Then early this year I saw it in that Carnegie-Murrumbeena area while driving down to St.Kilda Football Club after they relocated back to Moorabbin. Now I’ve been down through there a fair bit since it opened and the difference in that area, which as you describe was a nest of bottlenecks from which there seemed no escape, is profound.
I am hoping for better than 48, but I am at least confident of majority government.
Where is Ricky Muir running?
It’s a shame that Parliament does not have more represenatives that have the lived experience of the mean as opposed to average Australian
@billie
He is running in Morwell.
Well I reckon you get a sense of how things are going by keeping track of where the leaders are campaigning. Dead shit Guy spent some considerable time in Ferntree Gully (margin 7%) promising to completely re-build our local school. This is despite the Tories never spending a cent on it in the 31 years I have taught there. My view… they are in trouble and the internal polling is bad, bad, bad!
Skyrail really only upset the people really close to it and even then some of them have come around. The majority of the most directly effected people were in Caulfield (Liberal held by 4.9%). The bits further south were generally more industrial areas.
The Opinion polls that had Guy close are at least 3 or 4 months old. There has just been so little polling published everyone is running mostly off gut instinct.
billie
After Ricky Muir was elected to the Senate I met someone up near Warburton who had worked with him in the past. He told me that Ricky was just a decent hard-working guy, and that he expected him to do his best in the job and look at every issue on its merits.
I think he did that, and I was sad that Turnbull’s (foolish) Double Dissolution in 2016 ended his tenure. I expected him to run for the Upper House in Eastern Victoria where he would have had a good chance, possibly his best chance if this really is the last election with Upper House Preference tickets.
Early night I think.
Lest I be sucked into the vortex of Antony Green’s Upper House Calculators again.
Once you start you just can’t stop!
What I was always amused about with Ricky Muir was he was CEMFU rep at his work site before parliament (he was in the Forestry division) and then in Canberra they were always ranting about the evils of that union whilst trying to get his vote.
The eastern suburbs have a bit of a history of being reluctant to support Labor from opposition but prepared to swing to them in government – swings in this region were below average in 1999 but massive in 2002. If the Labor statewide 2PP vote is in the 53-54 range it wouldn’t surprise me if they pick off one or two of the seats in the 3-6% range out there (Burwood being perhaps the most likely).
As for Prahran, the Greens threaded the needle twice to win there in 2014 (first to edge out Labor in the 3CP, then to get just ahead of the Liberals in the 2PP). They’ll probably need to improve their primary noticeably to hold the seat.
Should I explain that Google maps directed you along Waverley Rd to get to Chadstone Shopping Centre from Prahran in school drop off & pick up times.
My friends who live on the Frankston line can’t believe the difference the removal of level crossings at North Rd, Centre Rd has made to their lives as well as the new railway station at Southland Shopping Centre – the last Westfield for St Kilda, Brighton, Hampton thru to Frankston, Mornington, Rosebud, Portsea
Contrast this with the Liberals last term in office when they promise level crossing removals starting with putting New St underground, 15 years after Kennett tried to close the Sandringham line. After 4 years with the crossing closed New Street manned railway gates were replaced with a boom gate at the level crossing and instead of being able to turn left and right off Beach Rd traffic was restricted to right turns off Beach Rd only. Real lasting vote winner, Liberal losers. New Street has been a cattle track & thoroughfare since 1850s
clem attlee
My information is that your contribution is on the money
I am told there is LIberal unease at polling also in some Eastern Melbourne seats
Surprisingly given the late change of candidate in Bayswater to a young serving Police Officer with a profile at Knox Council, Bayswater is right in the mix and not looking good for the Liberals
Their brand and Guy are the negatives
We will see
There is some angst at HQ that the Murdoch Leader Press is giving some coverage to Labor when Murdoch’s support had been specifically sought to arrest the trend in evidence
Billie,
Ricky Muir is running in Morwell
He’s the shooters and fishers candidate the Greens are complaining the ALP is preferencing ahead of them
As I said before someone is running internal polling out in the eastern suburb seats like Ringwood, Box Hill and Forest Hill. Either Labor think they are in with a chance or the Libs in full blown panic mood.
Bayswater could be interesting. Plus if a serving cop who was deputy mayor (and not to bad looking either) is the back up candidate, I suggest the ALP lose more candidates next time.
The most contested part of the “skyrail” was through Carnegie and Murrumbeena in Oakleigh electorate (ALP with a 8.2% margin).
The Libs poured fuel on any discontent and there was (early on) a view it would flip the seat.
With the construction largely compete it’s been well received by the locals and the Libs are running dead in Oakleigh.
I think the Libs are still hoping that the confected discontent will pay dividends on the frankston line seats. Perhaps this was their game plan all along
Oh yes, I was wrong, Caulfield finishes at Grange Rd which was the first level crossing removed. Skyrail was mostly in Oakleigh.
.
If there’s internal polling in those eastern suburbs seats, and Guy is campaigning out there with expensive promises, then I reckon the interal polling in the marginals (sandbelt + Prahran) has been so much worse than expected for them that they no longer think the seats with a 4-5% margin are safe either.
If they are expecting 4-5% margins to be vulnerable, then an under the radar seat could also be Caulfield. The local member seems pretty unpopular, the southeast has less Liberal tribalism than the east, and while Caulfield itself is pretty stable Liberal territory there are enough suburbs in the electorate that aren’t, some of which have had a fair bit of apartment development bringing in new demographics. Glen Huntly (2 more level crossing removals promised), Elsternwick & Ormond are all vulnerable to swings, while Balaclava & St Kilda East is already a left-wing heartland that’s only become increasingly hipster over the last 4 years.
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2018/11/fear-and-loathing-with-victorian-upper.html
Fear And Loathing With Victorian Upper House Preference Flows
@Trent
you do know that daniel andrews has been campaigning in safe labor seats aswell dont you? i.e. bendigo west, dandenong, etc.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/11/14/yougov-galaxy-labor-leads-54-46-richmond-56-44-geelong/comment-page-1/#comment-3002757
Caulfield is certainly a seat for the Liberals to worry about. Caulfield proper is not that heavily Liberal area (only 50-61% in the polling booths last election) and the other parts are certainly less friendly than that. There are lots of flats going in in Caulfield as well lots along Dandenong Rd, the big development between the racecourse and the railway and other places as well. The only question is how many are luxury down-sizing flats (a Liberal demographic) and how many are first home buyer (a swing demographic) or rental flats (anti-Coalition leaning)?
I thought that Sukkar was under Witness protection until I heard him on Raf Epstein today. I think the swing in the Eastern suburbs toward the ALP at a state level might be muted until the North East Link is completed. People vote with their car keys in hand and mind in the burbs. I think that Forest Hill is the ALPs best chance to wrest a seat back in the area. Manoj Kumar and entourage has been the most visible candidate around. The only sighting of Dee Ryall has been on her van that is parked 24 hours a day at the intersection of Rooks Rd and Whitehorse Rd. https://www.google.com.au/maps/@-37.8174493,145.1852155,3a,75y,20.02h,76.11t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sS2mNqfOSxY0pkYfu8qYmwQ!2e0!7i13312!8i6656
We need to make “Friends Don’t Let Friends Vote Above The Line” a thing.
And fast.
If the number of people putting at least 20 or so numbers below the line can even get to 20-30% of voters, we might be able to save the state from some serious f*ckwittery. Needs to be an easily shareable FB group and hashtag.
Make people know it can be easy and quick to do.
And FFS if anyone writes “well, despite the dumb name, the Aussie Battlers seem to have some solid policies” on FB (seriously, I saw this the other day by someone who considers themselves “alternative left”), reach through the screen and slap them.
Liberal candidate for marginal Yan Yean gone after anti-Muslim video surfaces
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/liberal-candidate-for-marginal-yan-yean-gone-after-video-surfaces-20181115-p50g43.html
Labor had 3.7% margin in Yan Yean in 2014, so it would have been an upset for Libs to win it, but bad for Libs elsewhere as well.
If in a time when people live in REAL fear of stagnant wages and welfare, rising costs, city congestion, affordable access to quality health and education etc you choose to campaign on a FAKE Fear of African gangs you have already lost the election.
ALP in a Winx style canter.
A not-very-exciting prediction.
Labor to win Ripon, Morwell, and South Barwon from the Coalition, and Prahan from the Greens. Greens probably will win Brunswick from Labor. No gains for the Coalition.
Also, keep an eye on some of those allegedly safe Coalition country seats. Strong independents are causing a fuss.
Here is the real reason that candidate is gone. Too close to the far right Liberty alliance, and the possibility she might go rogue if she won.
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/state-election/meralyn-klein-quits-as-liberal-candidate-for-yan-yean/news-story/5f7c4f133bcceb3f0c16b49f1f9eaa23 paywalled
“Mr Yemini told the Herald Sun this morning that the video was shot yesterday, and that he edited it to include the fact that her attackers were Muslim, because it was vital to his party’s cause.
“She just didn’t want to say it herself, because she told me that story numerous times for months. That is why I went out and did the video with her,” he said.
“Were they Muslim and how did I get that, she just didn’t want to say it on camera. She decided to leave out the most crucial point … I was shocked she left it out.”
He claimed the Australian Liberty Alliance had a deal with her in Yan Yean to direct preferences to her campaign, even though the Liberals had preferenced the ALA last.
“We said she was going to be a Liberal that was tough on Islam and maybe later on come to us,” Mr Yemini told the Herald Sun.
“She is playing that political game, I tell you now there has been numerous meetings with her.”
“There was an obvious connection there and we had an alliance. It was all very bizarre yesterday, we had a shared aim and goal. I’m not sure what happened to her internally but to me the issue was bigger than one candidate.”
That toxic fool Yemini was responsible for doxxing former journalist and son of NSW Greens senator Osman Faruqi. He should be barred from running.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/bradesposito/this-journalist-got-death-threats-after-his-phone-number
What a lunatic.
“She decided to leave out the most crucial point”
Because the impact on the victim would differ based on their assailant’s religion? That one sentence by Yemeni says it all and really exposes just how blinkered and out of whack their perspective on everything is.