BludgerTrack: 54.7-45.3 to Labor

After a dire result from Newspoll, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate is hardly better for the Coalition than it was immediately after the leadership coup.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with this week’s Newspoll and the YouGov Galaxy poll from Queensland, the effect of which is to add another half a point to Labor’s two-party preferred vote for a gain of only one seat, that being in Western Australia. The Queensland poll, which was a relatively good result for the Coalition, negated the effect of Newspoll in that state. Newspoll’s leadership ratings resulted in little change in the trend readings – no doubt it would have been a different story if I had a net satisfaction series for Scott Morrison, who did particularly badly in Newspoll, but there is still too little data for that to be feasible.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

995 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.7-45.3 to Labor”

  1. Pegasus @ #446 Wednesday, November 14th, 2018 – 10:14 pm

    Media release, 31 October 2018

    https://trademinister.gov.au/releases/Pages/2018/sb_mr_181031.as

    Australia has today ratified the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP-11) trade agreement giving our farmers access to more markets, greater opportunities for our businesses, more jobs and increased investment.

    Australia is the sixth country to ratify the agreement, meaning it can now enter into force on 30 December this year. We join Canada, Japan, Mexico, New Zealand and Singapore as part of the first group to ratify.

    And up pops Miss Goody Two Hooves. Okay, I will check this information on Saturday. Nevertheless, MGTH, you can’t change the fact that the government of Julia Gillard negotiated the body of the TPP, and without America involved, the worst aspects of it have been removed and modified by Canada, NZ and Mexico.

  2. It is difficult to predict in advance the impacts of automation on human employment.

    In the 1990s automatic teller machines were deployed on a mass scale.

    ATMs actually increased the number of bank teller jobs.

    How did this happen?

    ATMs made banking much more convenient for people, which persuaded more people to become bank customers.

    ATMs reduced the cost of opening a new bank branch.

    The combination of more customers and lower per branch costs prompted the banks to open more branches, which involved hiring more tellers.

    What changed was the precise nature of the bank teller’s role. Before ATMs, bank tellers spent most of their time on routine cash handling tasks.

    After the mass deployment of ATMs, the role of bank teller transformed into a job of responding to customer queries and selling a range of financial products to customers.

    The number of bank tellers actually increased after the mass deployment of ATMs. The role of human bank teller changed.

    The precise impact of automation on human employment depends heavily on the details of the role and how the automation affects consumer demand and preferences.

    The “robots are coming for our jobs” narrative is needlessly alarmist and simplistic.

  3. poroti @ #445 Wednesday, November 14th, 2018 – 10:14 pm

    I thought the changes NZ and ‘Canadia’ negotiated concerned their own industries and so not applicable to Australia ?

    And in what alternate universe do you think that a federal Labor government would ignore applicability of renegotiated outcomes to the Australian context? As well as have some of their own worked out to add as amendments? And, as if those countries which are left in the TPP11 bloc wouldn’t let them make those changes. Get real, please.

  4. C@tmomma @ #451 Wednesday, November 14th, 2018 – 10:22 pm

    Nevertheless, MGTH, you can’t change the fact that the government of Julia Gillard negotiated the body of the TPP, and without America involved, the worst aspects of it have been removed and modified by Canada, NZ and Mexico.

    My understanding is that these revisions have been accomplished by various “side letters” between the specific countries concerned. They do not apply to us.

    https://hsfnotes.com/arbitration/2018/05/09/new-zealand-signs-side-letters-with-five-cptpp-members-to-exclude-compulsory-investor-state-dispute-settlement/

  5. Pegasus @ #454 Wednesday, November 14th, 2018 – 10:29 pm

    Cat

    You’re welcome.

    I understand your need for snark when facts refute your ill-informed claims.

    And I note your inability to recognise the fact that I stated I would check the fact out that you pointed to on Saturday. But sanctimony and superciliousness are in your dna, so I expected no more than what I received by way of reply from you. Feel free to ignore the rest of the facts presented, I know you can’t help yourself. Not that a no mark from the Victorian Greens really has any influence over anything a government does.

  6. Player One @ #457 Wednesday, November 14th, 2018 – 10:31 pm

    C@tmomma @ #451 Wednesday, November 14th, 2018 – 10:22 pm

    Nevertheless, MGTH, you can’t change the fact that the government of Julia Gillard negotiated the body of the TPP, and without America involved, the worst aspects of it have been removed and modified by Canada, NZ and Mexico.

    My understanding is that these revisions have been accomplished by various “side letters” between the specific countries concerned. They do not apply to us.

    https://hsfnotes.com/arbitration/2018/05/09/new-zealand-signs-side-letters-with-five-cptpp-members-to-exclude-compulsory-investor-state-dispute-settlement/

    Yes, and the Trade Ministers from the countries involved in the TPP11 can sign another side letter if the government of Australia changes and asks for further changes to be made. Can it not?

  7. “In the 1990s automatic teller machines were deployed on a mass scale.
    ATMs actually increased the number of bank teller jobs.
    How did this happen?
    ATMs made banking much more convenient for people, which persuaded more people to become bank customers.
    ATMs reduced the cost of opening a new bank branch.”

    Garbage. I remember 5 branches of the bank I belonged to closing within a 3 km radius of my house in the 1990s.

  8. For the sceptics, just reflect upon the fact, and I’m not using him as a good example, that once Donald Trump was elected he threw NAFTA out the window and renogiated separate Trade deals with Canada and Mexico. So, even when signed, passed through parliament and ratified, a Trade Agreement can be junked, in whole or part, by an incoming government. And renegotiated to suit the new government.

  9. Player One @ #463 Wednesday, November 14th, 2018 – 10:40 pm

    C@tmomma @ #459 Wednesday, November 14th, 2018 – 10:36 pm

    Yes, and the Trade Ministers from the countries involved in the TPP11 can sign another side letter if the government of Australia changes and asks for further changes to be made. Can it not?

    Yes, they can. But why would the other countries agree?

    You only have bargaining power before you sign a treaty. Not afterwards.

    Because the other countries aren’t the Americans. Also because they are professionals and that’s the way government to government business occurs.

  10. I have worked in Health in NSW,SA and Singapore; in private practice, major hospitals, in jails you name it…on day one they give you your log-in to health, security, private and personal details in the system and off you go….if you want you can go fishing to your hearts content (they supposedly track everything, there are harsh penalties,but have never heard of anyone being pulled up).
    And that’s before someone hacks in, or it leaks, or shared incorrectly.
    I wouldn’t have an electronic health record if you paid me.

  11. Cat

    A simple thank you would have sufficed. Instead your response was “And up pops Miss Goody Two Hooves”.

    Demonstrating yet again that snarkiness and pettiness is in your dna.

  12. Garbage. I remember 5 branches of the bank I belonged to closing within a 3 km radius of my house in the 1990s.

    The aggregate numbers show that ATMs have contributed to a higher number of bank branches and a higher number of human bank tellers.

  13. Nicholas:

    “It is difficult to predict in advance the impacts of automation on human employment.”

    I guess that your recent contributions to this forum would fall under your expanded definition of employment. That being the case, do you think that those contributions are currently susceptible to automation?

  14. C@tmomma @ #464 Wednesday, November 14th, 2018 – 10:41 pm

    For the sceptics, just reflect upon the fact, and I’m not using him as a good example, that once Donald Trump was elected he threw NAFTA out the window and renogiated separate Trade deals with Canada and Mexico. So, even when signed, passed through parliament and ratified, a Trade Agreement can be junked, in whole or part, by an incoming government. And renegotiated to suit the new government.

    Using Trump as an example of negotiating tactics only weakens your argument.

    This is the man who has bankrupted his businesses seven (from memory?) times, has had to be bailed out by russian mobsters more than once, and is currently the subject of perhaps dozens of sealed indictments 🙁

  15. No real computer system “destroys” records it deletes (voids). It marks the record as deleted. Most systems would include facilities for reinstatement of deleted records, for example, in case the wrong record us deleted. It also needs to maintain audit trails to help ensure the accuracy and consistency of data. Real systems also maintain backup copies of its major data, essential to allow for the recovery of data that is corrupted or lost as a result of programming errors, hacking, fire, flood, etc.

    I would not accept “assurances” that records are “deleted”.

  16. Pegasus @ #468 Wednesday, November 14th, 2018 – 10:43 pm

    Cat

    A simple thank you would have sufficed. Instead your response was “And up pops Miss Goody Two Hooves”.

    Demonstrating yet again that snarkiness and pettiness is in your dna.

    No, it just seems that you lurk simply for the sole purpose of providing evidence to humiliate. As you appended no comment to your contribution it merely seemed like an attempt by you to gleefully contradict.

  17. You must write at least 2,000 words here every day spread over 16 hours.

    Hi Oakeshott, yes I do have job. I assist people with disabilities and mental health issues.

    I have written and saved a large amount on a wide variety of topics that are important to me. It does not take much time to find material that is relevant to the issues of the day.

  18. You must write at least 2,000 words here every day spread over 16 hours.

    Hi Oakeshott, yes I do have job. I assist people with disabilities and mental health issues.

    I have written and saved a large amount on a wide variety of topics that are important to me. It does not take much time to find material that is relevant to the issues of the day.

  19. The thing about TPP is that it was never explained to the public other than saying it is fantastic outcome for Australia. The public was never taken in to confidence. For example, when Andrew Robb negotiated TPP, no details were released for public discourse. It is as if he was afraid that people would revolt against the agreement. Robb asked us to trust him and look what he did after he resigned as Trade Minister (went and joined a Chinese company and got a favourable lease on Darwin port) . I have suspicion that even ALP did not know what Robb was negotiating. The details which were leaked were not at all good for Australian public. No wonder Getup, ACTU, CFMEU objected to it.

  20. Player One @ #471 Wednesday, November 14th, 2018 – 10:45 pm

    C@tmomma @ #464 Wednesday, November 14th, 2018 – 10:41 pm

    For the sceptics, just reflect upon the fact, and I’m not using him as a good example, that once Donald Trump was elected he threw NAFTA out the window and renogiated separate Trade deals with Canada and Mexico. So, even when signed, passed through parliament and ratified, a Trade Agreement can be junked, in whole or part, by an incoming government. And renegotiated to suit the new government.

    Using Trump as an example of negotiating tactics only weakens your argument.

    This is the man who has bankrupted his businesses seven (from memory?) times, has had to be bailed out by russian mobsters more than once, and is currently the subject of perhaps dozens of sealed indictments 🙁

    Which is irrelevant to the fact, as I presented it. Also, if you would like a less controversial example, though I imagine you will find it as sensorious, there is Brexit and the renegotiation that is going on wrt the UK leaving the European Common Market. As far as the Trade aspects go anyway.

  21. I wonder where all these extra bank branches employing tellers are?

    At least three branches in not much more than walking distance from me have disappeared in the last decade or so.

    And this is in an area with residential customers as well as largish shopping centres and light industrial.

    Even small business can do without a branch. The plumber who came yesterday emailed me the invoice and I paid on line.

    And good luck finding a bank in some parts of rural Australia.

  22. Dan Gulberry @ #479 Wednesday, November 14th, 2018 – 10:50 pm

    C@tmomma @ #459 Wednesday, November 14th, 2018 – 7:36 pm

    Trade Ministers from the countries involved in the TPP11 can sign another side letter if the government of Australia changes and asks for further changes to be made. Can it not?

    No. The only time changes can be made to it are before it’s ratified. Too late now.

    It can be renegotiated. If a new government requests it. It’s not set in concrete, forevermore.

    For example, there is even talk of renegotiating the America-Australia FTA. Only signed, relatively recently under Howard.

  23. Did any of this happen when Christine Milne was federal leader? Could it be that Greens women speaking out now are revolting against a misogynist culture in the party that is at best set from the top, or at worst actively endorsed?

    “I am no longer going to be part of a system that runs a protection racket for badly behaved men in this place, or in society,” Ms Leong told parliament shortly after midday. “It has to stop.” You can read a complete transcript of Ms Leong’s speech here.

    https://newmatilda.com/2018/11/13/parliament-cannot-protection-racket-badly-behaved-men-greens-mp-jenny-leong-unloads-colleague-jeremy-buckingham/

    Ms Buckland made her complaint internally through the Greens in April. It took months to progress, but not before a subsequent internal investigation finally turned the blow torch on Ms Buckland herself, investigating the baseless allegations that she was a ‘promiscuous drug user’.

    https://newmatilda.com/2018/11/13/never-crime-always-cover-greens-set-implode-sexual-assault-allegations/

    #doasIsaynotasIdo

  24. Torchbearer

    “I wouldn’t have an electronic health record if you paid me.”

    ———-

    I believe without any element of doubt, that when the Libs get back in power (or even before this next election), they will sell the My Health Records stuff to some Capitalist somewhere (i.e. USA).
    Even though i have “opted out” i would not be surprised that that has no effect.

    Sadly, I belive Australia has become a thoroughly rotten State.

    While it will be a relief that the LNP will be replaced by the Labour Right with its motto of “Plus ca Change”, is uninspiring.

  25. Torchbearer

    “I wouldn’t have an electronic health record if you paid me.”

    ———-

    I believe without any element of doubt, that when the Libs get back in power (or even before this next election), they will sell the My Health Records stuff to some Capitalist somewhere (i.e. USA).
    Even though i have “opted out” i would not be surprised that that has no effect.

    Sadly, I belive Australia has become a thoroughly rotten State.

    While it will be a relief that the LNP will be replaced by the Labour Right with its motto of “Plus ca Change”, is uninspiring.

  26. Anyway, I’m off to bed. My next report on the TPP will be on Saturday after I have spoken about the matter further to people who know about these things.

  27. Morrison to decide on Israel embassy move by Christmas: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/14/scott-morrison-tells-joko-widodo-australia-will-decide-on-embassy-move-by-christmas

    Should Morrison decide to proceed, which I think he will, Labor should announce that it would reverse the decision, on the grounds that the decision is idiotic, based upon a narrow ideology, and is contrary to the interests of Australia. An incoming Labor Government should immediately cease any work on the move and cancel any contracts entered into.

  28. Privatising stuff is what Liberals do. I don’t believe any reassurances regarding My Health. It will be privatised in the next Coalition term, no doubt with lots of “guaruntees” that mean nothing, whether that term starts in 2019 or 2030.

  29. C@tmomma @ #484 Wednesday, November 14th, 2018 – 7:54 pm

    It can be renegotiated. If a new government requests it. It’s not set in concrete, forevermore.

    If the other countries don’t, or won’t re-negotiate, then yes it is set in concrete.

    For example, there is even talk of renegotiating the America-Australia FTA. Only signed, relatively recently under Howard.

    Please show us evidence of this alleged “talk” going on. Who exactly is doing this alleged “talk”? What are they allegedly talking about?

    Even if there is “talk” going on, that still doesn’t equate to action, does it? People can talk all they want, until there’s some action then we have nothing.

  30. Steve777

    “Labor should announce that it would reverse the decision”
    ——

    That would be very unusual for Labour.

    When it gets in office, it normally endorses LNP bastardry and says everyone should just move on.

    I think of the ALP as the Pusillanimous Party. I think it has to do with future careers, a la: Anna Bligh,

  31. Steve777:

    I opted out of My Health Record ages ago and haven’t regretted it. I’ve promoted the opt out avenue to just about everyone I come into contact with who raises it, so feel I’ve done my bit to protect people from this incompetent, useless govt.

  32. Confessions@10:41am
    Pegasus, Rex, nath never responded to misogyny, nepotism, shoplifting activities of Green MPs/ candidates. Like Green MPs, they only criticise ALP MPs. They did not criticise Joyce. Adam Bandt even defended Joyce ex-staffer in parliament. Why? Politics.
    After repeated queries to Pegasus, she was elitist and condescending in her reply to me saying that she does not have to answer to any of my queries on above.

  33. I guess that your recent contributions to this forum would fall under your expanded definition of employment.

    No, posting here is a hobby. But I believe that working for a political party, a think tank, or a not-for-profit organization should be available to people as a minimum wage job under a Job Guarantee.

    It will be extremely difficult to automate high level argumentation, hypothesis-making, analysis, ethical reasoning, and active citizenship. There are strong grounds to believe that this will never happen. Certainly not in the next few decades.

    Technologists and futurists tend to drastically understate the technical barriers to automating particular tasks (including highly advanced cognitive, creative, imaginative, and empathetic tasks; as well as sensory-motor tasks that most humans can perform effortlessly).

    They tend to drastically understate the time lag between proof of concept and widespread deployment.

    And they are not very good at all at discussing the political, regulatory, and cultural issues that can stop a technology from taking off in a big way.

    I think that nearly everyone who runs the “robots are coming for our jobs” narrative is not seriously committed to full employment in the here and now. They incorrectly believe that full employment is neither possible nor desirable. They have bought the idea that paid work is inherently exploitative and unfulfilling. In truth, those problems result mostly from an economy that is far from full employment. Those problems can be solved by using the currency-issuer’s power to create meaningful and relevant jobs for all who want them.

    The “robots are coming for our jobs” claim is based on an uninformed understanding of the history of automation’s impacts on human employment. It is also based on a weak grasp of the current rudimentary state of artificial intelligence and robotics.

  34. Ven

    Nice bit of verballing there. I said I don’t respond to demands by individuals that relate to what I should comment on, how I should comment, etc, etc. I make no such demands on others.

    I have never (99.99%) commented on these same issues regardless of party or politician.

    A recent example, did I comment on Foley. No I did not.

    If you want to continue to bleat about my non-response, please do so, but how about a bit of variety and creativity.

  35. Ven:

    FWIW I defended and still defend Barnaby’s partner from media outing.

    This is very different from the Buckingham allegations however, which are more along the lines of Trump’s pussy grabbing boasting.

  36. Oakeshott Country says:
    Wednesday, November 14, 2018 at 10:39 pm
    Nicholas
    You musr write at least 2,000 words here every day spread over 16 hours.
    Do you have a job?
    —————-

    Ha, seems a bit rich, given the often puerile partisan bloviators to be found dominating the commentary on this blog for years. Unsurprisingly on the page where this ridiculous claim was put, one of the single most resident bloviators cat was responsible for 28% of all posts (14/50 on a single page).
    Interesting to see how febrile and perhaps insecure some are around here that when a different view or information arrives, the demands, squeeling and screeching from the apparent regular bloviators goes through the roof. You’d almost think they think it is their blog to own, not WB’s.
    Personally I think limiting all individual contributors to say half a dozen posts a day would add enormously to the quality. Who knows some may even find something useful to do that actually contributes to society instead. Cheers

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