BludgerTrack: 54.7-45.3 to Labor

After a dire result from Newspoll, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate is hardly better for the Coalition than it was immediately after the leadership coup.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with this week’s Newspoll and the YouGov Galaxy poll from Queensland, the effect of which is to add another half a point to Labor’s two-party preferred vote for a gain of only one seat, that being in Western Australia. The Queensland poll, which was a relatively good result for the Coalition, negated the effect of Newspoll in that state. Newspoll’s leadership ratings resulted in little change in the trend readings – no doubt it would have been a different story if I had a net satisfaction series for Scott Morrison, who did particularly badly in Newspoll, but there is still too little data for that to be feasible.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

995 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.7-45.3 to Labor”

  1. Trump has split the Republican Party, mobilised the Democrats and added to their plurality. He has alienated Independents. He has helped swing states away from Red to Blue. He cannot win in 2020. He will be obliterated if he runs, presuming he does not resign first. ETTD.

  2. Donald Trump has unified the Republican Party. About 95 percent of Republicans approve of him. Republican office holders dare not criticize him strongly.

    The Democrats will have to nominate a genuine economic progressive in order to maximize their probability of winning the presidency in 2020.

    Neoliberals need not apply.

  3. https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-approval-rating-republicans-1061846

    But then, the Post’s split poll-takers who identified as Republican into three separate groups: people who strongly identify with the GOP, people who identify as Republican but not strongly and the remaining group who technically call themselves independents but say they lean toward the Republican Party. The results after these distinctions were made showed glaring discrepancies.

    Trump’s overall approval rating for those who identified as strongly Republican is an overwhelming 93 percent. But voters who identified themselves in this category make up less than 20 percent of Americans likely to vote in elections.

    Trump is shrinking the Republican base.

  4. zoomster @ #394 Wednesday, November 14th, 2018 – 6:07 pm

    Can’t read it, paywalled…

    “I don’t rate the chances of any of the independents.” North East Labor figure @ZuveleLeschen dismisses prospects of candidates as it emerges her party sounded out three Wangaratta councillors about standing.
    https://www.bordermail.com.au/story/5757271/independents-have-no-chance-in-election/?cs=9681 … #benambravotes #OVvotes #Euroavotes

    Just another ratbag opinion!

  5. Nicholas @ #399 Wednesday, November 14th, 2018 – 6:15 pm

    Cud Chewer’s story about his sister is poignant and it raises important questions about how big systems should respond to people going through extreme difficulty.

    Perhaps a good policy change would be to empower Centrelink officers to authorize DSP payments on the basis of third party-provided documentation about the person’s life circumstances. Cud Chewer’s sister definitely deserves the DSP (the rejection rate is far too high – I would change that). .

    We can and should design more compassionate, creative, and flexible government responses to difficult circumstances.

    In my direct experience (rather too much of it, on behalf of relatives and neighbours and others that I help), Centrelink has changed over the past six years, from being a place where the staff tried to help, and were generally sympathetic, to one where they are massively understaffed, and where the remaining staff have the attitude that all ‘clients’ are dishonest good-for-nothings trying to scam the system.

    The very idea that any of the current Centrelink staff, who any client would be able to come into contact with, would have a sympathetic attitude to Cud Chewer’s sister is laughable. Contact by telephone is a joke. The first respondent is always a contractor, who is incapable of understanding normal English, and who obfuscates, and transfers you to another line, which commonly keeps you on line, listening to Mozart, for 45 minutes or so, then drops out. If you do get on, you will be confonted by total ignorance, or barefaced lies. You really have no idea of what the real world is like, do you, Nicky boy?

    If you visit a branch, you will be stand in a queue to be placed in a queue. You will observe that of the 20 or so computer stations that are visible, maybe 3 will be actually staffed. A couple of Fridays ago I entered The Entrance office at about 3 pm. At 3.50, I was told that I would not be able to be seen, and to come back on Monday. It is a 7 km drive, and about a 30 minute bus trip.

    All of the decent people at Centrelink, like Cathy, my neighbour opposite, have taken redundancy, because working at Centrelink, and having to confront and disappoint desperate people, day after day, with no support from above, pathetic computer systems, and ever diminishing staff numbers, simply became intolerable. Abbott and co have succeeded in destroying a proper public service.

  6. It has come to my attention that Republicans, in a shocking twist of fate, largely approve of the Republican President.

    With this knowledge in mind, I have drawn to the conclusion that will allow Democrats to maximise the probability of winning the Presidency in 2020: they must adopt my policy preferences.

    If you have a different policy preference, no.

  7. The performance of the ASX, which is a forward looking measurement, is indicative of the consistent message I am getting from those I associate with and who have significant business interests

    Business conditions have never been as soft as they are currently

    This information is confirmed by ASX reporting with numerous warnings of soft business conditions – with the Share prices being savaged

    This is the outcome of a government wedded to right wing ideology and trickle down economics – culminating in the business conditions we are experiencing impacting on security of employment and on wages growth

    Therefore on confidence and discretionary spending

    So around and around the cylinder we go – ever downwards

    The answer is to address confidence – confidence in the terms and conditions of employment, the availability of that employment and wages growth including the government supporting such an increase in excess of the current moribund inflation rate at Fair Work Australia

    The right wing ideology of austerity seeing confidence and that confidence then impacting economic growth just does not work

    It puts the cart before the horse – and now this dysfunctional government and its business constituency are seeing the results

    Unfortunately the outcome impacts on each and every one of us – with the ASX being a visible indicator

  8. I have no direct experience with CentreLink except for assisting my late parents in more benign times – even the Howard era by comparison – at least he respected age pensioners. The situation now is a disgrace.

    We should recall that the Government tried to virtually abolish unemployment benefits for the under 25s in the 2014 Budget with its 6 month waiting period. Had they succeeded, both the waiting period and the age limit would have been ratcheted up.

    If you are not independently wealthy, in danger of being unemployed, sick, disabled or aged in future (or someone who depends upon you) and you hate asylum seekers less than you think you would hate you and your family experiencing penury and humiliation, you would have rocks in your head to vote Coalition.

  9. sprocket_ @ #413 Wednesday, November 14th, 2018 – 5:01 pm

    The Morrision Government has many weak performers, none more so than ‘L Plater’ Environment Minister Mellissa Price. This interview just now with Patricia Karvelis might be 8 minutes of your life you’ll never get back, but if you want to hear a slow moving train wreck….

    https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/drive/melissa-price-on-energy-policy,-environment-and-the-pacific/10497840

    Thanks sprocket. I actually thought she wasn’t too bad considering we’ve heard worse. George Brandis SC trying to explain metadata, or Jackie Kelly and her pamphlet scandal for example.

  10. briefly “Trump has split the Republican Party, mobilised the Democrats and added to their plurality. He has alienated Independents. He has helped swing states away from Red to Blue. He cannot win in 2020. He will be obliterated if he runs, presuming he does not resign first. ETTD.”

    this is precisely the kind of idiotic dismissive arrogance that led to Trumps election in the first place. I would have thought people would have learned by now. Apparently not.

  11. Ven @ #420 Wednesday, November 14th, 2018 – 8:48 pm

    Player one and BW
    The below article by George Monbiot on climate change effects may interest you

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/14/earth-death-spiral-radical-action-climate-breakdown

    Yes, I have heard about Extinction Rebellion. There is no equivalent here in Australia. I wish there were, and that sentiments like this were more commonly heard here …

    A young woman called Lizia Woolf stepped forward. She hadn’t spoken before, but the passion, grief and fury of her response was utterly compelling. “What is it that you are asking me as a 20-year-old to face and to accept about my future and my life? … This is an emergency. We are facing extinction.

    She’s quite right. However, political action is no longer enough. While I agree with most of what George Monbiot has written, here is where I part company with him …

    I don’t believe such a collapse is yet inevitable, or that a commensurate response is either technically or economically impossible. When the US joined the second world war in 1941, it replaced a civilian economy with a military economy within months. As Jack Doyle records in his book Taken for a Ride, “In one year, General Motors developed, tooled and completely built from scratch 1,000 Avenger and 1,000 Wildcat aircraft … Barely a year after Pontiac received a navy contract to build anti-shipping missiles, the company began delivering the completed product to carrier squadrons around the world.” And this was before advanced information technology made everything faster.

    This is simply not going to happen. We are being deliberately lulled to believe that such action is not required, when of course it is actually long overdue.

    The reality is that it is probably too late even if we could move to a “war footing” of the type we saw in WWII. As the IPCC has pointed out, the action required now is “unprecedented” … i.e. even the level of action we were able to achieve in WWII would not be enough – and there is just no way we could do even that much in these degenerate days.

    Why do people not get this? How much plainer does the language have to be?

  12. Ven
    Thanks. It is not looking too good, IMO.
    A WW2 type outcome would be emergency deployment of global scale CO2 scrubbers to go with global renewables.
    I can’t think of a trigger that would get either up to speed in the available window.

  13. Boerwar @ #428 Wednesday, November 14th, 2018 – 9:26 pm

    Ven
    Thanks. It is not looking too good, IMO.
    A WW2 type outcome would be emergency deployment of global scale CO2 scrubbers to go with global renewables.
    I can’t think of a trigger that would get either up to speed in the available window.

    The other thing to remember of course is that the C02 reduction technologies that the IPCC is relying on in their forecasts do not yet exist … and may never.

  14. Re robotic brickie
    https://youtu.be/4YcrO8ONcfY

    It is a fancy brick stacker. Laying bricks requires bedding mortar, metal ties to framing,
    metal ties to door & window frames, flashing over door & window openings, provision of weep holes, vermin wire in brick veneer construction, damp proof course, cavity ties in full brick (cavity wall) construction, provision of construction joints on long wall runs etc. None of which appear in the video. The bricklaying by the robot does not meet the requirements of any Building Code in the world.

  15. Hey there Bludgers! I have the definitive answer wrt the TPP11. Apparently, passing it in parliament does not mean that it has been ratified and comes into full effect. It cannot be ratified until the middle of next year, at the earliest. By then we hope to have in place a government who will abide by their policy platform wrt ISDS and overseas workers and will make the necessary changes before they ratify it.

  16. C@tmomma @ #431 Wednesday, November 14th, 2018 – 9:43 pm

    Hey there Bludgers! I have the definitive answer wrt the TPP11. Apparently, passing it in parliament does not mean that it has been ratified and comes into full effect. It cannot be ratified until the middle of next year, at the earliest. By then we hope to have in place a government who will abide by their policy platform wrt ISDS and overseas workers and will make the necessary changes before they ratify it.

    Good news, if true. Why has Labor not pointed this out?

  17. Player One

    “By then we hope to have in place a government who will abide by their policy platform wrt ISDS and overseas workers and will make the necessary changes before they ratify it.”
    ——-

    Where on earth would you find such a “government”?

  18. Rocket Rocket @ #432 Wednesday, November 14th, 2018 – 6:51 pm

    Someone’s probably already linked to this – I have been on the Victorian election threads – but when Joko meets the Joke, the expressions on their faces say it all!

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/14/scott-morrison-tells-joko-widodo-australia-will-decide-on-embassy-move-by-christmas

    LOL. Am reminded of the weekend in France when Putin joined the festivities. Only one smiling was Trump. Rest of the leaders all looking on with wariness mixed with displeasure.

  19. Player One @ #433 Wednesday, November 14th, 2018 – 9:54 pm

    C@tmomma @ #431 Wednesday, November 14th, 2018 – 9:43 pm

    Hey there Bludgers! I have the definitive answer wrt the TPP11. Apparently, passing it in parliament does not mean that it has been ratified and comes into full effect. It cannot be ratified until the middle of next year, at the earliest. By then we hope to have in place a government who will abide by their policy platform wrt ISDS and overseas workers and will make the necessary changes before they ratify it.

    Good news, if true. Why has Labor not pointed this out?

    I don’t know! Maybe they thought everyone already knew that this was the way things worked!?! Also, I was told that the guts of it had been worked on by Julia Gillard’s government and that was another reason the FPLP were amenable to it. The Coalition just jumped on the bandwagon after the hard yards had been done for the kudos. Also, once the Americans pulled out and the Canadians and EnZeders had the final say, there was not a lot left wrong with it, that Labor couldn’t agree with in parliament and then change later before ratification.

  20. C@tmomma @ #438 Wednesday, November 14th, 2018 – 10:03 pm

    I don’t know! Maybe they thought everyone already knew that this was the way things worked!?! Also, I was told that the guts of it had been worked on by Julia Gillard’s government and that was another reason the FPLP were amenable to it. The Coalition just jumped on the bandwagon after the hard yards had been done for the kudos. Also, once the Americans pulled out and the Canadians and EnZeders had the final say, there was not a lot left wrong with it, that Labor couldn’t agree with in parliament and then change later before ratification.

    Excuse me for being sceptical – that’s my nature.

    But some level of confirmation of this is required.

  21. Centrelink should be transformed into a Public Employment Service. With a Job Guarantee in place the PES would have no welfare policing role whatsoever.

    This reform would liberate PES staff to be highly sensitive to the needs and circumstances of job-seekers. PES staff would respond to job-seekers with flexibility, creativity, and imagination.

    Under the current system, with no JG in place, PES staff must desensitize themselves to the needs and circumstances of job-seekers because their primary role is to police welfare payments and impose punitive responses and meaningless hoop-jumping exercises (such as applying for jobs that the job-seeker has no chance of getting, and attending workshops about resume-writing and job interview technique when the real problem is lack of suitable jobs).

    With a JG in place, people who are entitled to a Basic Income for reasons of disability, illness, or old age would get it quickly, with no humiliating hoops to jump through.

    The PES must be provisioned with as many staff as needed to respond to the needs of citizens.

    The current shortage of Centrelink staff is ultimately caused by “debt and deficits” stupidity, not any real resource constraint. We have enough people to staff Centrelink to the full capacity that is needed. For ideological reasons the federal government chooses not to fund the required staff.

  22. Even Getup! and the ACTU are against it but Shorten pushed it through. The libs can talk about the CFMEU all they like but the corporations are Shorten’s master, always have been.

  23. Media release, 31 October 2018

    https://trademinister.gov.au/releases/Pages/2018/sb_mr_181031.as

    Australia has today ratified the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP-11) trade agreement giving our farmers access to more markets, greater opportunities for our businesses, more jobs and increased investment.

    Australia is the sixth country to ratify the agreement, meaning it can now enter into force on 30 December this year. We join Canada, Japan, Mexico, New Zealand and Singapore as part of the first group to ratify.

  24. Describing Melissa Price as an L-plate minister is deeply insulting to learner drivers.

    In WA at least you have to pass a detailed written test before you can venture out on the road with L plates.

    Price shows no sign of having passed any test that would make her suitable for high office.

  25. Christ, why do people fall for this nonsense …

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2018-11-14/my-health-record-opt-out-deadline-amendments-privacy-security/10481806

    If someone cancels their record, the Australian Digital Health Agency (ADHA) must “destroy” it, rather than holding it for 30 years after their death.

    FFS! Why do you think they put the word “destroy” and “deleted” in quotation marks? It’s because even the journalists writing the story don’t believe it 🙁

    But even if this claim could be believed, by the time you cancel your health record, they will already have been forwarded far and wide, in both identified and non-identified formats. Any “cancellation” of your health record will have zero impact on those people who have already gained access, including other government departments, all the health insurance companies, pharmaceutical companies, and any other corporations conducting health-related “research”, etc etc.

    However, this bit I can agree with …

    Dr Bruce Baer Arnold, a law and health expert at the University of Canberra, said the changes were “a band-aid on the My Health Record train wreck”.

    Why are Australians so bloody stupid?

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