BludgerTrack: 54.7-45.3 to Labor

After a dire result from Newspoll, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate is hardly better for the Coalition than it was immediately after the leadership coup.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with this week’s Newspoll and the YouGov Galaxy poll from Queensland, the effect of which is to add another half a point to Labor’s two-party preferred vote for a gain of only one seat, that being in Western Australia. The Queensland poll, which was a relatively good result for the Coalition, negated the effect of Newspoll in that state. Newspoll’s leadership ratings resulted in little change in the trend readings – no doubt it would have been a different story if I had a net satisfaction series for Scott Morrison, who did particularly badly in Newspoll, but there is still too little data for that to be feasible.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

995 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.7-45.3 to Labor”

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  1. meher baba
    engaging in some form, almost any form, of paid work.

    I call bullshit. Low-paid precarious work is demotivating and alienating for most people. And given the astronomical cost of housing, the rising costs of basic goods and bills, and the disappearance of entry level jobs in higher paying industries, many people get trapped in such employment just to make ends meet.

    Furthermore it is totally manifestly unfair to compare refugees, who are almost invariably from much poorer countries, and migrants, who are usually amongst the most entrepreneurial and risk-taking people from their societies, to the most marginalised native-born Australians. That’s an unfair and impossible standard to impose.

  2. Where getting a full time job is increasingly difficult, the current well fare system is punishing those who are taking up unreliable jobs, as they take away payments when you earn even just a little more on the side, basically their is little incentive to look for work.
    The other option is to take cash in hand, to avoid it being reported to centrelink and so not losing any of their welfare payments, which is of course illegal, but it happens alot.
    I believe thats why more and more people are floating the UBI idea, as in not to take away payments if you do earn more at times, in this environment of unreliable jobs.

  3. Steven Hail of the University of Adelaide explains why compulsory superannuation has done precisely nothing to increase our society’s productive capacity to supply goods and services to retirees.

    “The problem of providing adequately for retirees in the future has nothing whatsoever to do with compulsory superannuation. It is entirely about whether we have the productive capacity to supply the right goods and services in the right quantities in the right places to meet this future need. It has nothing to do with money. It has everything to do with real resource productivity. Compulsory private super has had exactly zero impact on our productive capacity. It has done precisely nothing to help Australia provide for retirees.

    At some stage, this will be realised more generally. When this happens, we will phase out compulsory private super, eliminate tax breaks for retirement saving, and implement a decent and non-means tested (but taxable) state aged pension.

    You could almost call it a UBI for the retired, I suppose.

    I am not an advocate for a UBI for all, but I am an advocate for a universal and uniform state pension for retirees.”

    https://www.facebook.com/673798776036602/posts/1978342308915569/

  4. Meher baba:

    “Correct me if I’m wrong, but I thought that redistricting was irrelevant in a Presidential election. ”

    Democrat inclined voters House districts with with huge majorities (due to redistricting) are less likely to vote at all (inc for Pres.) since their House votes don’t make any difference (the Democratic House candidate will win anyway). Thus redistricting indirectly depresses the concurrent Presidential vote, particular in normally blue states (which have several high Dem-majority districts) such as PA, WI, MI etc. This can change the presidential election result, and may well have done so.

  7. Sometimes Twitter can be very amusing. Barry O’Sullivan want to be called a woman. And Abetz is carrying on about Trade and cutting off Indonesia’s foreign aid.
    Our Senate at work 🙁

    Mike Carlton
    ‏@MikeCarlton01
    19m19 minutes ago

    Abetz has blocked me. What’s the silly prick done now ?

  8. Seriously, very interesting discussion on PB this arvo on welfare, work and poverty.

    Those with real life experience are the ones to listen to.

  10. The first thing we should do to reform welfare is to stop calling it that. It’s social security.

    The word “welfare” is deliberately designed to sound like charity and a burden on society. It should get the flick.

  11. The work of planning, launching, and developing a small business could be a minimum wage job under a Job Guarantee.

    A JG can pay more than a UBI because the JG has price stability mechanisms built into it. The federal government spending on a JG automatically increases during a recession and automatically shrinks during a recovery. In a JG there is a direct link between spending and production. JG workers produce useful goods and services.

    So a JG wage would be higher than a UBI.

    A JG would maintain price stability. A UBI would require massive tax rises to make it non-inflationary.

    A JG is consistent with the cultural value of reciprocity. A UBI violates this important value.

    A JG supports people to realise their desires to contribute, participate, belong, learn, grow, and be respected and valued by others.

    A UBI reduces people to mere consumption entities.

    It’s no contest. A JG is a much better policy than a UBI.

  14. C@tmomma:

    [‘AM,

    I always try to refer to it as Social Security.’]

    Yes, you could call it that. In any event, doctor-assisted euthanasia goes on all the time. Both of my elderly parents died after doctors upped their dose of opiods. But they refuse to call it involuntary-euthanasia, calling it pain relief.

  18. @meher baba

    That’s not what I have seen.

    One certain dodgy job agency just sends my sister in law to job hunt, and if they don’t show up a nasty reply by Centrelink.

  19. Nicholas

    … the cultural value of reciprocity. A UBI violates this important value.

    I don’t see that. We already accept that there are many benefits available to everyone in our society. How is UBI morally different? For example, have you looked into how Alaska implemented a partial universal basic income? (I mean implemented politically, not financially.)

  21. To those that not avoidcating UBI, you are dooming the economy.

    Everyone on welfare spends all their money paying necessities.

    Middle class and upper class waste money.

  26. This is an excellent contribution by the House crossbenchers, and a useful demonstration of why we need a far more politically diverse parliament than the duopoly we currently have.

    Federal crossbenchers will introduce a bill within weeks for a national integrity commission, with wide-ranging powers covering politicians, agencies, lobbyists and private contractors when they are directly dealing with government, such as the NDIS.

    It follows through on a warning to Scott Morrison’s minority government after the Wentworth byelection that crossbenchers would use the balance of power in a minority parliament to push for an anti-corruption body.

    The draft bill would also include an independent parliamentary adviser, a code of conduct for politicians, whistleblower protection and education for politicians and public servants.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/14/crossbenchers-to-push-forward-with-bill-for-anti-corruption-body

  27. steve davis

    HoJo the Useless and The Mad Monk had a weasel word answer to that early in the piece. Sure the price has gone up but it is $550 less than it would have been without our cunning plan.

  28. Just perusing Bill Shorten’s 2016 book ‘For the Common Good’ which I found in a second hand book store. It has a number of similarities to Tony Abbott’s 2013 book ‘Battlelines’. For a start both are incredibly self serving and lacking in self criticism. There is the contemplation of Jesuit education in the first chapters, luckily both children seem to have made it out without being preyed upon by gruesome elderly paedophiles. In both books there are nauseating first chapters which seek to provide the reader with an introduction to the authors’ childhood and general character. Chapters follow in which our heroes evaluate the recent political past before moving into their respective ideas for an improved Australia under their rightful authority. Despite their best efforts both authors actually demonstrate their intellectual limitations and their complete and incessant self-regard. Banality defined.

  30. Those advocating a UBI might want to factor in the cost of climate change – currently expected to be of the order of $500 trillion dollars if we persist with our current trajectory, and probably not much less even if we were make the “unprecedented” changes indicated by the IPCC.

    This cost will of course not be evenly distributed across all citizens in all countries – people who live in poorer countries will be unable to pay except with their lives, so the bulk of the financial burden will fall largely on the wealthier countries. But even in those countries, guess who will be the ones who end up bearing the largest burden? (hint: it won’t be the wealthy!)

    Given this, I don’t see any country implementing a UBI anytime soon, even if there was a possible political pathway to do so (which of course there is not).

  33. SilentMajority @ #327 Wednesday, November 14th, 2018 – 3:42 pm

    I couldn’t care less what you call it.

    Here’s what a 55 year old I know has to do to survive.
    He owned a pizza bar for the last 12 years.
    Eventually business slowed since the boom but his costs have gone up every year as usual.
    He sold out to his brother who payed out the debts.
    He works there 7 days a week for nothing and is on the dole.
    He had to access some super to buy a jalopy to get from his mortgaged home to work.
    He has to look for 20 jobs a fortnight & now they want him to do work for the dole.

    He should just get the dole without question and all the hangers on like the work for the dole people & the Jobsearch people (Who are obliged to breach you) should be disposed of.

    There. I’ve just saved the budget billions and boosted the economy at the same time.

    Silent – My considered advice to your 55 year old.

    1. Get on to his local Volunteer agency https://govolunteer.com.au/volunteering-organisations/7194
    2. Apply for, and sign up to a volunteer position for 15 hours per week.
    3. Get his paperwork regarding asset position, etc. together, and apply for Newstart, either online, or in person.
    4. Receive Newstart fortnightly.
    5. Report in fortnightly via web that no income has been earned. – Most important. If you don’t have a computer, or appropriate phone, you have to go somewhere which has.

    I have assisted my partner’s sister, and 17 people from the local 55 and overs social club, to do this in the last 18 months, or so. I have accompanied them to the Volunteer agency, where they go through the list of available positions and make a selection. Some of them I have accompanied to the actual volunteer jobs where they have signed up. Almost all I have assisted with the Centrelink obstacle course, in 9 cases signing on as their nominated ‘other’, with access rights, so that I can go into bat for them when necessary. We have had group sessions at the club in the computer room doing sign-ons. I have set up a shortcut at the club which takes the user straight to the reporting screen.

    Somewhat randomly, Centrelink will insist that the applicant sign on with one of the so-called ’employment services providers’, many of which scam us all. I have sussed out the 5 local ones of these, and have selected one (Ability Options, highly recommended) which especially caters for handicapped people, and is approachable and reasonable. Some of the ’employment services providers’ are outright crooks, and bastards with it. You must insist on nominating your preferred one to Centrelink, and refuse to let them railroad you. My selected one signs them on, then completely leaves them alone once provided with the volunteer evidence.

    The idea is to get Centrelink to completely ignore you. The fortnightly reporting is a pain, since you have to sign on to deliberately report nothing, via an option which specifically assumes that you are reporting something!

    ps BB and GG. This is an idea which you might like to take up, which will get you away from the screen, and do a bit of good. Better than worrying about poor Alan J’s pain threshold.

  34. Nicholas @ #375 Wednesday, November 14th, 2018 – 5:20 pm

    This is an excellent contribution by the House crossbenchers, and a useful demonstration of why we need a far more politically diverse parliament than the duopoly we currently have.

    Federal crossbenchers will introduce a bill within weeks for a national integrity commission, with wide-ranging powers covering politicians, agencies, lobbyists and private contractors when they are directly dealing with government, such as the NDIS.

    It follows through on a warning to Scott Morrison’s minority government after the Wentworth byelection that crossbenchers would use the balance of power in a minority parliament to push for an anti-corruption body.

    The draft bill would also include an independent parliamentary adviser, a code of conduct for politicians, whistleblower protection and education for politicians and public servants.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/14/crossbenchers-to-push-forward-with-bill-for-anti-corruption-body

    What a load of garbage. The Labor Party has already promised to introduce a Federal Integrity Commission, and the Cross Benchers know it. They are simply grandstanding because they know that Labor aren’t in government and cannot introduce one as yet.

    Over and above that, getting a Cross Bench to agree on anything is like herding cats. Except if it’s in their own re-election interest. 🙂

  35. The ALP has had opportunities to vote with crossbenchers on whistleblower protections and establishing a federal ICAC but they opposed every single time.

    I hope that this time the ALP will behave honourably and put the public interest first.

  36. This time next year Labor should be in government and should be in the position of being able to ignore the cross benchers arsing about.
    IF the cross benchers had the national interest in mind right now, they would vote for any and all no confidence motions.
    But the skivers would never do that.

  37. yabba @ #383 Wednesday, November 14th, 2018 – 5:37 pm

    The idea is to get Centrelink to completely ignore you. The fortnightly reporting is a pain, since you have to sign on to deliberately report nothing, via an option which specifically assumes that you are reporting something!

    _____________________________________________

    Is it possible to tell centrelink to stop requiring fortnightly reporting? If you do occasional casual work, the sort of thing where you might get work this week, but then nothing for three months, you can get them to take you off fortnightly reporting.

    I agree completely that getting Centrelink to ignore you is the best way to go, if it can be managed.

  38. BW. Thinking about Eric as a stick or a carrot I can see both uses. 😉

    But the amount does put the past $3B ‘investment’ from China across all Pacific nations into perspective. I guess it’s a small carrot and a big stick.

  39. Actually, I think that I would rather wait until Labor is in power before any Federal ICAC is set up. If it were set up now, its commissioners and management would be stacked, its charter drafted to avoid looking closely at Liberal mates and it would be sic’ed onto unions, industry super funds and Labor. Basically, I don’t want the current lot to set up or pass anything before being booted out.

  40. don

    Well, you don’t have to report, but it’s easier to keep reporting rather than to stop, lapse, and then have to go through the application process again.

  41. JimmyD
    says:
    Wednesday, November 14, 2018 at 3:47 pm
    Further to my previous post, I just recently read that on the latest cruise ships they have installed machines that are operated by a single person and which can fold an entire day’s worth of fresh linen in one hour, when it used to take seven people seven hours to do by hand.

    Boerwar
    says:
    Wednesday, November 14, 2018 at 3:47 pm
    JD
    True. But ALL small businesses would have to be paying 60-70 cents in the dollar tax to pay for the UBI.

    JD just gave an example of 7 jobs turning into a fraction of 1. That’s 6 times whatever it previously cost the ship owner to hire those people worth of real value (there are also extra costs to employment beyond the wage). They also get the added value of whatever the remaining employee does with the rest of their day.

    They can take those savings and use them to reduce the cost of people staying on the ship, or pocket them for themselves or their shareholders, or whatever, but that value does not disappear.

    The robots, by doing such jobs, which are of real value, can easily pay for the UBI.

    The UBI doesn’t have to start at $20K. It can start low and increase as the robots add more and more value to the economy.

  42. “”This time next year Labor should be in government and should be in the position of being able to ignore the cross benchers arsing about.””

    Vote ALP in BOTH house and we might achieve something useful!.

  43. don @ #387 Wednesday, November 14th, 2018 – 5:50 pm

    yabba @ #383 Wednesday, November 14th, 2018 – 5:37 pm

    The idea is to get Centrelink to completely ignore you. The fortnightly reporting is a pain, since you have to sign on to deliberately report nothing, via an option which specifically assumes that you are reporting something!

    ps BB and GG. This is an idea which you might like to take up, which will get you away from the screen, and do a bit of good. Better than worrying about poor Alan J’s pain threshold.

    Is it possible to tell centrelink to stop requiring fortnightly reporting? If you do occasional casual work, the sort of thing where you might get work this week, but then nothing for three months, you can get them to take you off fortnightly reporting.

    I agree completely that getting Centrelink to ignore you is the best way to go, if it can be managed.

    In my experience, if you miss reporting, you may (again it appears to be random) get a form letter, which is always rudely worded , and threatening. Several of my group of lazy, worthless, grasping dole bludgers are prone to anxiety, and I have found it much better to try to avoid any interaction with Centrelink at all.

    I have not ever enquired about getting off fortnightly reporting. I might drop in to enquire, when I have a couple of hours to waste.

  46. I was starting to think the Greens had a half decent idea until I looked at the dates.

    The last day of this Senate and more than likely after a full federal election.

    The terms of reference for that inquiry are as follows:

    1. That a select committee, to be known as the Select Committee into fair dinkum power, be established on 28 November 2018 to inquire into and report on 30 June 2019, on the following matters:
    …

    What’s the point?

    Greens set up ‘fair dinkum’ power inquiry.
    This is not as Orwellian as it seems at first glance. Instead, Sarah Hanson-Young and the Greens are using the government’s terminology against it, while seeking to find out what is actually happening:

    The Australian Greens will establish the Select Committee into Fair Dinkum Power to inquire into the electricity market, power prices and energy generation methods to cut through the Federal Government’s meaningless and misleading energy policy.

    “The best thing about renewable energy is that it is good for the planet and good for the wallet. It’s clean, reliable and getting cheaper every day. Now, that’s fair dinkum power,” Senator Sarah Hanson-Young said.

    “This inquiry will bust the myths being peddled by the Morrison Government about renewable energy, grid stability and power bills. If Scott Morrison was actually ‘fair dinkum’ about power, he would let evidence, not ideology, guide energy policy.

    “Consumers and the industry want to be empowered. The public sees through the Morrison Government’s bluster about using a ‘big stick’, and more coal, to put power prices down.

    “Australians are right to be angry that we’re being screwed with huge power bills, and we should be even angrier that the Morrison Government’s answer is more coal.

    “Research shows that gas and coal fired power stations break down every 2.4 days. Meanwhile, the battery in South Australia is proven to be putting downward pressure on power prices, and providing stability.

    “We can be the renewable powerhouse of the world; all we need is factual information and the political will to make decisions in the best interests of all Australians.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2018/nov/14/coalition-labor-morrison-shorten-politics-live

  49. Cud Chewer’s story about his sister is poignant and it raises important questions about how big systems should respond to people going through extreme difficulty.

    Perhaps a good policy change would be to empower Centrelink officers to authorize DSP payments on the basis of third party-provided documentation about the person’s life circumstances. Cud Chewer’s sister definitely deserves the DSP (the rejection rate is far too high – I would change that). If her objection is that she doesn’t like the payment being called DSP, there should be discretion on the part of a government officer to enter a different description on the bank statements and other documents that the person receives. For example, perhaps it should just be be called (Living Well Income) in the case of Cud Chewer’s sister. If her family, doctors, and other supporters provide appropriate documentation, then the government should simply start making the payments to her bank account every fortnight. If she wants to pay the money back, she would be free to do so. But I think the obstacle might be that she doesn’t like the name of the payment and doesn’t want to make a formal request. Well, relieve her of those stressful burdens and make it a whole lot easier for her to get the income that she needs and deserves.

    We can and should design more compassionate, creative, and flexible government responses to difficult circumstances.

  50. zoomster @ #390 Wednesday, November 14th, 2018 – 5:57 pm

    don

    Well, you don’t have to report, but it’s easier to keep reporting rather than to stop, lapse, and then have to go through the application process again.

    I think we must be talking at cross purposes. All I do is walk in and report income after a lapse of six months or more, no big deal, and no process involved. The person at the front desk did it last time.

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