Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

A world of hurt for the Coalition from Newspoll, with voting intention deep into crisis territory and Scott Morrison’s standing continuing to decline.

The Australian reports this fortnight’s Newspoll is even worse for the Coalition than last time, with the Labor lead now at 55-45. Labor now holds a five point lead on the primary vote, being up one to 40% with the Coalition down one to 35%, while the Greens and One Nation are steady on 9% and 6% respectively. Despite/because of last week’s charm offensive in Queensland, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings continue to deteriorate, being down two on approval to 39% and up three on disapproval to 47%. His lead as preferred prime minister has also narrowed, from 43-35 to 42-36. Bill Shorten is down two on approval to 35% and steady on disapproval at 50%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1802.

Also out today are the federal voting intention numbers from the YouGov Galaxy poll of Queensland, for which state voting intention numbers were provided yesterday. This has the two parties level on two-party preferred in the state, which is unchanged on the last such poll at the tail end of the Malcolm Turnbull era. The Coalition is up a point on the primary vote to 38%, with Labor steady on 34%, One Nation down one to 9% and the Greens steady on 9% (also included as a response option is Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, scoring all of 1%). The poll also finds 29% saying they would be more likely to vote Coalition now Scott Morrison is Prime Minister, with 25% opting for less likely and 42% for no difference. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 839. The Courier-Mail’s report on the poll can be found here, though I wouldn’t bother if I were you.

UPDATE: The Australian also has Newspoll results on becoming a republic, which records a dramatic ten point drop in support since April, from 50% to 40%, with “strongly in favour” down from 25% to 15%. Opposition is up from 41% to 48%, although strong opposition is steady at 22%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,343 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

  1. mikehilliard
    For years people I knew would say “can’t wait to get out of Sydney. It’s a shit hole”. And I used to think why?
    Lately I’m starting to feel the same way. It’s a shit to get anywhere.
    It looks like a gigantic construction zone and a lot of what is being demolished just was not life expired.
    It just feels like the bulk of this development is simply a way to shovel tax payer money to mates.
    I’m not against immigration but it appears to be being used as fuel to justify this rush knock down and rebuild.

  2. TPOF @ #1145 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 7:27 pm

    C@t @ 7.13

    Bree is not real. It is an artificial stupidity program from the same cocked up computer system that spewed out Wayne. Treat it as the absurdity that it is.

    Oh, I agree. I can see the fingerprints and smell the sulphurous fumes from i360, or some similar Liberal AI software program which is being beta tested on PB. However, there are also REAL Liberal supporters as one-eyed and brainwashed as Bree is. So, it’s always best to hedge your bets. Plus, it’s a good exercise to engage in counteracting the likely election lines the Coalition will deploy.

  3. lizzie
    The phrase Milne used was actually “external development opportunities”. Milne thought he was being very clever using that euphemism but he doesn’t look so clever now.
    BTW I don’t watch the ABC. What’s been the wash up out of this for Alberici?

  4. Just watching 7.30 now, telling the viewers that, far from destroying union-backed industry super funds, the Banking Royal Commission has caused a wholesale stampede to them, away from the government’s mates in the retail funds.

    Those union standover merchants. You just cannot trust them.

    More brilliant political strategy from Malcolm Turnbull and his spiv mates.

  5. Aqualung

    Yep. Nearly everyone I speak to in Sydney says enough is enough. I work in the construction industry and feel powerless to influence better outcomes. I blame the NSW planning system which removes projects of a certain size & cost from local assessment. It would almost be nice to go back to having inappropriate overdevelopment bogged down in local Council.

  6. Indonesia has a GDP, depending on how you add it up, of between one and three trillion dollars.
    Indonesia sits across most of the choke points for most of our trade.
    If Indonesia is taken over by radical islam we are fucked.

    The serial threats by Coalition hacks to cut our petty aid unless Indonesia does what we tell it, is a ludicrous sign of just how totally ill-informed and arrogant the Coalition is. Absolutely clueless.

    The geopolitical reality is this: we need Indonesia far, far more than Indonesia needs us. This is going to be more marked over time.

  7. Observer @ #1149 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 7:31 pm

    GG

    You are being too kind to “Nicholas” and his abject nonsense

    My take is that “Nicholas” does not have the proverbial two bob to rub together – and consequently no prospects of ever purchasing a home – and his only prospects in life are to promote the ultimate socialist society where no individual owns anything and is survived by government largesse based on there being no commodity such as money or debt – the measure on productivity being you wake up in the morning and do what you want to do

    Disagree. Nicky genuinely works with the homeless and he deserves credit for that.

    However, his solutions for fixing the system are horseshit regardless of how much intellectual pomposity he might want to bring to the table.

    Jesus Christ said, “The poor will always be with us”. And, that has proven to be a truism across all cultures and religions. Nicky is intent on fixing this. He won’t succeed.

    But, the moralising crap he spouts is rubbish and deserves all the contempt I can muster. There are plenty of people who have a different view on how to deal with the problems of the homeless, the dispossessed and the preyed upon. I’m one of them.

  8. ratty,
    Very Dead Kennedys, comrade. Also a socially responsible message that should form the basis for the next ‘Don’t Drink and Drive You Bloody Idiot!’ campaign. 😆

    Let me know if you ever decide to tour to Melbourne. I haz connections. 🙂

  9. Big A Adrian

    Or to put it more plainly, more American voters wanted Clinton as President than Trump. Its only the jerrimander that robbed her. With a bit of finessing vis which jerrimander states to focus their attention on, there is no reason at all to say the dems would lose 2020 under Clinton.

    ___________________________________

    Adrian, the gerrymander is not relevant to the election of the President (although voter suppression is). A gerrymander is the drawing of the boundaries of a Congressional district at the State level. What impacted on Hillary Clinton was the State boundaries themselves, which are fixed historically, and the allocation of electoral college votes roughly according to the state populations (there is a bias towards States that are smaller in population).

    In this context, the only thing that would help Hillary Clinton if she ran again would be if people in areas that voted for Trump in the critical states changed their votes.

    My view is that Hillary running again would be a disaster. I personally believe that she has been terribly maligned and I think most of the criticism of her campaign has been totally misconceived. But her time is done. Attitudes are now baked in as people go back in time and reinvent what they were thinking when they voted the last time. If she ran again, especially against Trump, I reckon it would be highly likely that she would have difficulty winning. As those who voted for Trump refuse to accept they erred terribly, they are quite likely to repeat their previous vote.

    The Democrats need to win well in 2020 and they need a fresh face – somebody who offers a new alternative to Trump and his narrow-minded Republicans – not a blow-back to the past and to past divisions, which will most likely result in people refusing to revisit where they have been politically.

  10. Let me know if you ever decide to tour to Melbourne. I haz connections.

    Struggling to organise a one night tour of the inner Western Suburbs, but will do…

    Will certainly take comparisons to the DK’s though. Even though the #notJello bloke fronting them these days looks like the idiot offspring of Henry Rollins and Jim Carrey, and Klaus looks like he’s been dragged out of the bowlo after a few too many Friday arvo schooners, they still put on a good show.

  11. Bree will no doubt convert many deluded tree-hugging asylum-boat loving socialist lefties from the error of their ways through his incisive insight, rapier wit and deep erudition. He will leadeth them into green pastures, anoint their heads with Coal Dust and guide them to the True Path of righteousness (i.e. Righteousness) in their future voting intentions.

    Just imagine how many PB’ers he has converted to the One True Liberal faith, guided by the True Messiah Abbott Turnbull Dutton Morrison. Probably about the same number as Sean Tisme, Mod Lib, Pretty One…

  12. GG
    “Jesus Christ said, “The poor will always be with us”. And, that has proven to be a truism across all cultures and religions. “

    The poor will always be with us as poverty is defined relative to a society at a given time. Compared to most of Africa and Australia 100 years ago, we have very few people in poverty.

  13. Diogenes @ #1164 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 7:57 pm

    GG
    “Jesus Christ said, “The poor will always be with us”. And, that has proven to be a truism across all cultures and religions. “

    The poor will always be with us as poverty is defined relative to a society at a given time. Compared to most of Africa and Australia 100 years ago, we have very few people in poverty.

    Hate to become a defender of Nicky, but that’s rubbish.

    Middle class poverty might be your standard. however, it doesn’t cut the mustard comrade.

    There are indigenous situations in Australia that compare to any impoverished nation you’d like to compare. Tthere are refugees. There are enough people requiring food hand outs to shame this PM in to altering a pathetic decision about funding a Foodbank.

  14. quite frankly it isn’t too hard to classify some of the assemblies of god churches as extremist and dangerous – esp if somehow they justify nauru, and cause emotional harm to many on the mainland.
    it’s a bit rich for morrison to point fingers at islam – he and dutton are in charge and it’s dangerous for peace in this country having two uneducated extremists running the show

    btw what does national interest mean when it comes to monitoring research grants – ban study of middle eastern culture? coal? and who will decide this stuff

    put the govt out in rubbish

  15. Well I didn’t say I was a punk expert Ratsak but I tend to think in terms of The Sex Pistols when I think punk, so pretty raw and spit in your face 🙂

  16. Presidential voting is not affected by the gerrymandered electorates, but the Electoral College system does has a built-in bias in favour of small states, which in this era favours the Republicans.

    In the College, each state has one elector for each representative it elects to Congress. That’s two Senators plus one Representative for roughly each 730,000 population, subject to a minimum of 3.

    So the USA has 15 States with populations of around 2 million or less with 5 electors each. These are mostly (but not exclusively) conservative rural and small town states, which are over-represented, sending one elector for 400,000 population or less. Meanwhile, California sends 55 electors, about one per 700,000.

  17. The estimated ON vote shown at bludgertrack is 5.7%. I’ll be very surprised if the vote reaches that level across the electorate as a whole. There will be many seats that ON does not contest or where their vote share would be in the very low single figures. I reckon in WA they will get less than 3% come Election Day.

  18. All good Aqualung.

    Although tbf the production quality on Nevermind the Bollocks is pretty damn good. Produced by Chris Thomas who cut his teeth co producing the White Album with the Beatles (uncredited), before going on to Procol Harem, Roxy Music and mixing Dark Side of the Moon. Then went on to produce a huge amount of great albums by the Pretenders, Elton John, INXS etc.

    I can assure you no producer, mixer, audio engineer, or indeed recording studio has played any part in my work…

  19. yabba @ #914 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 12:55 pm

    BB You are 100% correct. I retract everything that I have ever posted. I will try, from now on, to never virtue signal like you. That would, after all, be pompous, and it follows that that would not be virtuous. There is no way I could ever get anywhere near your profound excellence at that essential skill of a true keyboard warrior. I admire your perfection, your utter certainty that your every utterance is perfect, and your admirable, perfect persistance in working to make the world a better place, by working tirelessly to silence those who do not share your utter perfectitude.

    After taking your perfectly virtuous advice, I now hope that Jones gets back on air, and restarts his tirade directed at Gillian Triggs, and vilifying all Muslims. Then he can work at sending Wong back to where she came from, and delivering Plibersek into a chaffbag. No hate, though, that wouldn’t be nice, or virtuous.

    Great post. Onya.

    BB has his head so far up his arse he can see daylight.

  20. Aqualung
    And nice about it too. I found the Twitter responses in the referenced article to be ignorant and childish. Anyone wearing thongs could easily slip on a piece of cooked onion on a shiny floor.

  21. On people who don’t know who Morrison is, I had a women’s networking lunch today and two women across the table from me were talking about that ‘crazy Qld Senator who talks a mile a minute.’

    Me: Are you referring to Barnaby Joyce, because he hasn’t been a Qld Senator for some years now.

    Woman: I don’t know his name but he’s the one on that bus that everyone’s been giving shit to.

    Me: {pulls up image of ScoMo on phone and turns it to them} You mean this guy?

    Woman: Yeah that’s him.

    She was genuinely shocked to learn he was our PM and not from Qld.

  22. Confessions @ #1183 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 8:39 pm

    On people who don’t know who Morrison is, I had a women’s networking lunch today and two women across the table from me were talking about that ‘crazy Qld Senator who talks a mile a minute.’

    Me: Are you referring to Barnaby Joyce, because he hasn’t been a Qld Senator for some years now.

    Woman: I don’t know his name but he’s the one on that bus that everyone’s been giving shit to.

    Me: {pulls up image of ScoMo on phone and turns it to them} You mean this guy?

    Woman: Yeah that’s him.

    She was genuinely shocked to learn he was our PM and not from Qld.

    All politics is local.

  23. GG

    You never judge others by self

    On these threads I have passed commentary on Daley and his presentations on superannuation – and Keating tonight has supported my criticisms

    In my attack on Daley I went to the detail of my circumstances courtesy of an industry where you joined a Provident Fund where the contributions were 12%, then to an accumulation scheme in 1980 (so self management) where I used salary packaging to increase my contribution level to 15%, retiring prior to turning 50

    Some other factors have weighed and I have been in a position to make undeductible contributions until precluded because of age

    Until the mid 1980’s my upper marginal tax rate was 60 cents in the $1-, kicking in at just under $50,000- PA

    I have always viewed that, as a society we are only as strong as the weakest

    And, as I put at the start you never judge others by self

    Because you never know what is around the corner – and sometimes money has no relevance, such as when I was in the Family Court of Australia seeking the Otders I obtained

    Fortunately those Orders meant the cost to me was about $90,000- of which $45,000- was to settle property

    If I had not been successful the outcome may we’ll have been financial ruin because the assets followed the children (not that that was ever a consideration because financial impact, either way, was not a consideration)

    So I have sympathy based on my experiences – because I would understand that few obtain the outcomes I obtained

    My interest, by extension, is not to decry the circumstances of others but to query how and why because everyone has a story to tell

    Depressive conditions, the illness of reliance’s, just plain bad luck

    The list goes on and on

    So terminology such as “dole bludgers” and “lifters and leaners” apall me – then we get to funding your older age, as Keating has addressed

    My management is to maintain the quotum – look for a return of 5% PA and live on that return

    If my Fund Managers underachieve, then I do not spend using Term Deposits to repair the balance (so interest rates at 2.7% impact)

    I am religious in that discipline

    Others are not in the position I am in – and may not have the discipline

    But I do not pass judgement

    What Keating said about 85 to 105, that would take the pressure off me

    What Keating also did was describe the pension system – and he was absolutely correct in his damming assessment

    In Australia today we have a Party which says its DNA is pay less tax (sorry, not my knowledge or experience)

    Instead of recognising society, its complexity and its needs

    And that the Australian way is to lend a helping hand

    To do unto others what you would wish done to you

    What Nicholas proposes is not the solution to inequality – and never will be

    To quote Stiglitz who is at the Press Club luncheon tomorrow we need a better balance – and that is an outcome government can deliver such that the basics for sustainable living are available to all

    Post that we have children and grand children so it is the society we leave for them that is the measure

    We will always have high achievers – it is the other end of that scale which needs addressing

    This dysfunctional government is sitting on its hands with its unsustainable right wing idealogy

    To entertain the Greens in this climate is simply not tenable

    We need government to act – and for that outcome we need a change of Federal Government

  24. Some Greens (not all) would like their dirty linen to disappear into the ether. Jenny Leong and Richard Di Natale are right: Jeremy Buckingham must go, but not quite yet, on the basis that the longer he stays, the more damage will ensue. With a primary vote heading south (9% in last Newspoll), the Greens are becoming a spent force.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/nsw-greens-bitterly-divided-over-sexual-violence-allegations-20181113-p50fta.html

  25. BK I usually grab my sanger sandwich on the way out so it never would have occurred to me. Shouldn’t really make any difference anyway. Taste wise.
    Twitter is twitter.

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