Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

A world of hurt for the Coalition from Newspoll, with voting intention deep into crisis territory and Scott Morrison’s standing continuing to decline.

The Australian reports this fortnight’s Newspoll is even worse for the Coalition than last time, with the Labor lead now at 55-45. Labor now holds a five point lead on the primary vote, being up one to 40% with the Coalition down one to 35%, while the Greens and One Nation are steady on 9% and 6% respectively. Despite/because of last week’s charm offensive in Queensland, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings continue to deteriorate, being down two on approval to 39% and up three on disapproval to 47%. His lead as preferred prime minister has also narrowed, from 43-35 to 42-36. Bill Shorten is down two on approval to 35% and steady on disapproval at 50%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1802.

Also out today are the federal voting intention numbers from the YouGov Galaxy poll of Queensland, for which state voting intention numbers were provided yesterday. This has the two parties level on two-party preferred in the state, which is unchanged on the last such poll at the tail end of the Malcolm Turnbull era. The Coalition is up a point on the primary vote to 38%, with Labor steady on 34%, One Nation down one to 9% and the Greens steady on 9% (also included as a response option is Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, scoring all of 1%). The poll also finds 29% saying they would be more likely to vote Coalition now Scott Morrison is Prime Minister, with 25% opting for less likely and 42% for no difference. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 839. The Courier-Mail’s report on the poll can be found here, though I wouldn’t bother if I were you.

UPDATE: The Australian also has Newspoll results on becoming a republic, which records a dramatic ten point drop in support since April, from 50% to 40%, with “strongly in favour” down from 25% to 15%. Opposition is up from 41% to 48%, although strong opposition is steady at 22%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,343 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

  1. In a sign that the Morrison ­government was also failing to connect with voters, Labor posted a further one-point gain in popular support to reach a commanding primary vote of 40 per cent.

    The Coalition’s primary vote fell by a point to 35 per cent.

    This is two points higher than the 10-year record low of 33 per cent recorded on the weekend following the August 24 spill and two points down on the 37 per cent it had reached in mid-October when there were signs the government might be mounting an electoral ­recovery.

    The last time prior to the leadership spill that the Coalition’s primary vote was this low was in October 2017 when the government was in the grip of the citizenship crisis and facing divisions within its ranks over the gay marriage plebiscite. For Labor, it is only the third time it has posted a primary vote above 40 per cent since February 2015.

    The numbers for all other ­parties remained unchanged, with the Greens on 9 per cent, One ­Nation firm on 6 per cent and the vote for “other” minor parties and independents at 10 per cent. The gloss continued to come off Mr Morrison’s leadership, after he had initially become the first prime minister to post a positive net ­satisfaction rating in more than two years.

  2. Despite/because of last week’s charm offensive in Queensland, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings continue to deteriorate, being down two on approval to 39% and up three on disapproval to 47%.

    The ScoMo Express has been a failure on any measure, even failing to transport the PM himself!

  3. Confessions @ #7 Sunday, November 11th, 2018 – 9:36 pm

    Despite/because of last week’s charm offensive in Queensland, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings continue to deteriorate, being down two on approval to 39% and up three on disapproval to 47%.

    The ScoMo Express has been a failure on any measure, even failing to transport the PM himself!

    As I posted in the Qld thread, the bus has been so good the Libs should send a whole train load of ScoMo impersonators…

  4. C@tmomma
    says:
    Sunday, November 11, 2018 at 9:36 pm
    Morrison will obviously think that he needs to do a streak at the cricket now.
    ___________________________________
    Now that is humour!

  5. Morrison drove his bus into a bog of quicksand, and it has sunk up to the windows.

    Roll me in sugar and call me sweetie, I am happy happy happy.

  6. “There’s still time for the Liberals to switch to Julie Bishop and call an election before Christmas.”

    I think this is probably their best bet, if I were a kinda safe liberal this is what my calls would be all about.

  7. The Liberals might have to tap Tony Abbott in order to take over and save the furniture.

    Anything would be better than Scotty from the Shire

  8. Sprocket

    Yes you are probably right. Anything rather than admit climate change really does exist and we need an energy policy. Ditto with tax cuts.

  9. 55/45
    Saturday paper; he was sacked from tourism Australia.
    Turnbull was safe because they had no-one to replace him.
    Half right. Now what do they do?
    Can they push it below 45 with Dutton.

  10. I have a couple of tasks that I’ve been procrastinating on, mainly because I don’t know where to start, so I decided to switch off my brain, have a couple of beers and watch Back to the Future II on TV commercial TV, and now a documentary on the Beatles.

    I’ve just looked in on PB to see a 55-45 Newspoll in favour of the good guys, a Labor primary with a 4 in front of it, even if the second digit is zero, but all good stuff nonetheless. Morrison is well down on approvals – good, the voters are waking up. The prefererred PM figure is meaningless, so I won’t worry about that. I don’t know why Bill is still in net disapproval territory. Maybe he’s not very visible, keeping a low profile, following the dictum that you don’t interrupt your enemy while he’s running around like a headless chook.

  11. Scotty will say it’s not a Fair Dinkum poll – and anyway, he is off to the diplomatic summit circuit.

    East Asia Summit next week
    APEC in PNG next weekend
    Then off to Buenos Aries for the G20

    Then the final 2 weeks of sitting before the summer break – the traditional killing season

  12. Is there enough time for an election before Christmas?
    And was that photo of Julie in the previous thread fair dinkum?
    Or is that middle eastern state more liberal?

  13. Heads up LNP, Morrison is still ahead on PPM.

    Interesting that the press gallery have been accurate in their scathing of the bus tour.
    They are almost worth reading when they don’t have a Golden boy to polish.

  14. C@tmomma,

    The Galaxy poll related to Q’land State Gov’t, not Federal I’m pretty sure.
    There was then some extrapolation from it to possible federal nos.

  15. [‘Can someone photoshop that graphic onto a bus?’]

    I wouldn’t have a clue. But one thing I do know is that it wasn’t the graphic on the Blunderbus when he started his journey to convert us Queenslanders.

  16. Steve777:

    The prefererred PM figure is meaningless, so I won’t worry about that.

    Morrison’s barely in front of Shorten now. At this rate, Shorten should be in the lead in a couple of weeks.

    I don’t know why Bill is still in net disapproval territory.

    In the end, I think he’s just not very well-liked by many people. As they clearly don’t dislike enough not to make him Prime Minister, it doesn’t really matter. I doubt Shorten will be losing sleep over it when he’s polling numbers like tonight’s!

  17. “Is there enough time for an election before Christmas?”

    If an election is called by Tuesday it can be held December 15. As some of us may recall, in 1975 the Federal election was held December 13, in 1977, December 10. Last year, the S44 by election for Barnaby’s seat was held December 16.

    However, a full election the 15th of December? Seems very unlikely. The 8th was the last practical date.

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