Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

A world of hurt for the Coalition from Newspoll, with voting intention deep into crisis territory and Scott Morrison’s standing continuing to decline.

The Australian reports this fortnight’s Newspoll is even worse for the Coalition than last time, with the Labor lead now at 55-45. Labor now holds a five point lead on the primary vote, being up one to 40% with the Coalition down one to 35%, while the Greens and One Nation are steady on 9% and 6% respectively. Despite/because of last week’s charm offensive in Queensland, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings continue to deteriorate, being down two on approval to 39% and up three on disapproval to 47%. His lead as preferred prime minister has also narrowed, from 43-35 to 42-36. Bill Shorten is down two on approval to 35% and steady on disapproval at 50%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1802.

Also out today are the federal voting intention numbers from the YouGov Galaxy poll of Queensland, for which state voting intention numbers were provided yesterday. This has the two parties level on two-party preferred in the state, which is unchanged on the last such poll at the tail end of the Malcolm Turnbull era. The Coalition is up a point on the primary vote to 38%, with Labor steady on 34%, One Nation down one to 9% and the Greens steady on 9% (also included as a response option is Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, scoring all of 1%). The poll also finds 29% saying they would be more likely to vote Coalition now Scott Morrison is Prime Minister, with 25% opting for less likely and 42% for no difference. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 839. The Courier-Mail’s report on the poll can be found here, though I wouldn’t bother if I were you.

UPDATE: The Australian also has Newspoll results on becoming a republic, which records a dramatic ten point drop in support since April, from 50% to 40%, with “strongly in favour” down from 25% to 15%. Opposition is up from 41% to 48%, although strong opposition is steady at 22%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,343 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

  1. I might have missed it but have nath Nicholas et al commented on the greens political party standing by their rape rapper candidate?

    Highlights please

  2. @TPOF:

    “the only thing that would help Hillary Clinton if she ran again would be if people in areas that voted for Trump in the critical states changed their votes.”

    Wrong. Americans rarely change their vote. For all the pumping of the Donald’s ability to switch older white male suburban low skilled worker’s vote, what really happened is that these folk simply stayed at home in large numbers (as did the under 25s and black males in the suburbs of Philly and Pittsburg etc). On the other hand the Donald got out the vote in rural and small town counties in the rust belt and sun belt like no other candidate since Reagan.

    This is what it comes down too: who can get out their base in sufficient numbers in either the rust belt states – Ohio, Missouri, Indiana, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania (the northern pathway) or the Sunbelt states that may swing (Florida, North Carolina, Texas, Arizona – the Southern pathway). Hilary’s problem was – and in my view regrettably remains – that she wasn’t able to get out enough democrats in any of those states, thus denying her a pathway to winning the EC.

    The democrats need to hand over the baton to another generation. Boomers like Sanders, Biden, Kerry and Hilary have had their go and they have fallen short. Enough.

    I am impressed with Beto O’Rourke – he’s actually done successful stuff in his life outside politics and has experience at both local and federal government levels. He ran a campaign without targeting a single republican vote in Texas yet managed to get with 2 points of victory in a very red state simply by lifting the participation rate of his own base.

    I reckon that a democrat ticket comprising Beto and Sherrod Brown of Ohio would lock down both the northern and sun belt pathways to victory for the Democrats. Both have the necessary blend of left wing idealism and centrist pragmatism to win. Bigly.

  3. Mavis Smith @ #1276 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 10:17 pm

    ItzaDream:

    I’m now not very au fait with NSW politics, but from afar Daley seems to have a safe pair of hands. He’s already been critical of QT in the bear pit, promising to reform it if elected next year. He’s also proposed that an independent commissioner for parliamentary standards be appointed. Granted, he’s no Nifty Neville, but will probably grow into the job.

    I had no time for Foley, and am desperate for Labor to return itself to its rightful place running this state with some probity and foresight. Hope springs eternal, and all that.

    Uncertain as to all your sensibilities, this may cross over with those we know, something I stumbled across, some late night loveliness, which although classical ballet is not especially my thing, it has a haunting melody, and the guy at the beginning has been on the hooch, or having a little inhale of something or other exotic. La Bayadere (the temple dance), entrance of The Shades, from the Bolshoi.

    No bitching folks, ok, yes, it’s ballet, and not compulsory.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w0YhEIXTSPI&t=200s

  4. Roger
    says:
    Tuesday, November 13, 2018 at 11:03 pm
    I might have missed it but have nath Nicholas et al commented on the greens political party standing by their rape rapper candidate?
    Highlights please
    _________________

    The guy has apologised and pointed out that he performed the rap when in his early 20s and that he has changed as a person. He had obviously convinced the party that he has changed and that what he said was no longer in his character.

  5. BB I am used to being in the minority. I organised anti Vietnam War marches, and was gaoled for it, twice.

    You, on the other hand, are a legend in your own ensuite. Hoobloodyray.

    Your mate GG said, on here, that the Royal Commission into Institutional Responses to Child Sexual Abuse was a ‘populist witch hunt’. He still thinks Pell has been badly treated, and that the Roman Paedophile Protection Society is a religious institution. I am not sure whether that is a majority view.

    Hoobloodyray, again. Two cheers. A truly lovely mutual admiration society. Congratulations to you both. You deserve each other. Enjoy your majority.

  6. Andrew_Earlwood

    I was just thinking on the same lines – Biden, Hillary – move on.

    Beto O’Rourke, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar (from Minnesota’s unique Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party) – the next generation will better get the vote out in 2020.

  7. C@tMomma,

    Well, everyone who mans a Bunnings sausage sizzle in summer has my sympathy and support. I can’t even eat a sausage in summer, let alone cook one! Let alone hundreds! It’s why I’m investigating cold soups to make this summer.

    Would you like my Gazpacho recipe? Even my chef son thinks it is amazing, although he muttered something about “just a bit too much garlic”, as he was asking me if I minded if he appropriated it for his restaurant.

    I also have my cooking magazines collected in France, where they publish special summer editions, one of which is 101 Gazpachos. I must start working my way through each, to give it. attack or a cross.

    #RecipesOnPB

  8. Felix @ #1221 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 9:12 pm

    The Greensborough Growler suggests Mr Morrison has an association with Victoria by virtue of being the Prime Minister of the Commonwealth of Australia, and Victoria being a member of that Commonwealth.

    However the behavior of Mr Morrison is such that I think in his opinion, Victoria is at best an occupied territory and at worst a land literally at war with Australia. No doubt it is because the football is played on ovals, the sausage rolls have carrot in them, the creamy soda is brown and there’s a sausage here called stras. Any variation is simply unacceptable to a mind like his. But perhaps he’s just a partisan, and doesn’t believe that any real patriotic Australian could ever vote Labor.

    And they call devon windsor and drink ponies…

  9. yabba
    says:
    Tuesday, November 13, 2018 at 11:28 pm
    BB I am used to being in the minority. I organised anti Vietnam War marches, and was gaoled for it, twice.
    ______________________
    Isn’t that virtue signalling? I mean I do good things all the time. But I don’t shout it from the rooftops. Call me old fashioned but I don’t.

  10. Why the shock at Morrison and Guy politicizing the terror attack? There is no low they will not stoop to. No lie they will not spread. No smear they will not promulgate. No hysteria they will not seek to generate. It’s part of their political model and always has been.

  11. “the only thing that would help Hillary Clinton if she ran again ”

    No,No,no………. Hilary must not run again. Her day is done, over and dusted.

    for the 2020 campaign i think one of the democrats biggest assets will be both of the Obamas. Smart, Respected, Articulate, Passionate, and apparently very motivated. Obama comes across as doing better than simply trying to defend some “legacy”, and Michele Obama is all class, dignity and stature. But, they can still talk to people and connect.

    There are a lot of very stupid, self destructive people who will vote for Trump if he lasts to 2020, but with the very strange behavior on 11/11 i’d agree that he is worried and thinks thee is an immediacy about something about to break.

    Or he is more stupid than i thought…and thats seriously unlikely. I mean he’s more of an idiot than nath or Bree……….

  12. Snap to all the people who called “Gazpacho” before I did!

    It is my favourite soup. From Andalusian gazpacho, which is green , with fresh grapes, to the more fiery and red “standard” gazpacho, wherever I am in the world I order the local interpretation, and I have never been disappointed.

  13. Richard Murphy and other members of the Europhile left are having a brain melt over Brexit. They are invoking doomsday scenarios for the UK. I do not share their pessimism. I think they should be taking constructive steps towards supporting the election of a Corbyn Government that implements socialist policies, including active use of fiscal policy to mobilize all available resources (including labour) into socially useful, environmentally sustainable activities.

    I believe that the Europhile left support the EU for reasons of sentiment and tribalism rather than carefully considered political and economic analysis. They consider Brexit to be an inherently far right project and they want to signal their complete separation from that enemy tribe. The possibility that there could be excellent left-wing reasons to support the dissolution of the EU does not occur to them.

  14. Douglas and Milko
    says:
    Tuesday, November 13, 2018 at 11:41 pm
    Snap to all the people who called “Gazpacho” before I did!
    It is my favourite soup.
    _______________________
    It’s fine on a hot day, but D&M, how can you go past Chicken soup, or a lamb shank soup?

  15. Itza
    Just back from seeing Meistersingers in Melbourne. Very interesting interpretation of “Honour thy German Masters” but otherwise an excellent production

  16. imacca
    says:
    Tuesday, November 13, 2018 at 11:46 pm
    “imacca, correct your spelling mistakes before you call me an idiot please.”
    sit and spin you obnoxious prat.
    ________________________
    I had to look this up:

    sit on it and spin
    An aged insult, possibly pre-dating the era of disco; equivalent of go fuck yourself.

  17. Crazy scenes from California.

    CNNVerified account@CNN
    18m18 minutes ago
    ‘If you’re going to die, die fighting’

    Parts of California have been burning for five days.

    Homes destroyed. People missing. At least 44 dead. Some victims escaped. Others lost everything and still went back to help.

    Here are their stories of survival: https://cnn.it/2DCc1Io

    :large

  18. Oakeshott Country @ #1316 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 11:45 pm

    Itza
    Just back from seeing Meistersingers in Melbourne. Very interesting interpretation of “Honour thy German Masters” but otherwise an excellent production

    Ah, good on you. Big job for Vic Opera, congrats to them.

    Mahler 5 this Friday and Saturday (A_E should give it a burl). Plus Korngold’s VC (someone famously said, more corn than gold ! )

  19. Andrew Earlwood, Rocket Rocket and Imacca

    I did not propose that Hillary run again. I was doing nothing more than speculating on what it would take for her to win. And in my original post, which AE did not seem to read beyond the paragraph he quoted, I said that would not happen as voters do not like to admit their previous vote was a mistake.

    I agree with all of you who say that Hillary’s chance has passed. Unlike others here, I think she was very shoddily treated. But that will make no difference.

  20. I made a spicy Orange Soup tonight, bugger the weather. Roast pumpkin, carrots, sweet potato, onion, garlic and rosemary. The roasting is the clue. Then simmer the roasted veggies with chicken stock, puree, and add a dollop of the best Harissa (I use Chris Mansfields) to suit the palate. Serve with coriander and sippets, fried up with some parmesan.

    Yumyum pig’s bum.

  21. Anyway, good night all.

    I have some hope that tomorrow will bring announcements about ARC funding (DP, DECRA, FF). My observation is that they are often announced on Wednesdays – no idea why.

    So many of us depend on these grants for keeping a roof over our heads.
    And, yes, we probably can gain profitable employment in other industries, but we really need to know whether we have funding for next year, or whether we need to move back with parents / in with kids until we get a new situation.

    As Trillion (Tricia McMillan) said “I hitched a lift. After all with a degree in math and another in astrophysics what else was there to do? It was either that or the dole queue again on Monday.”

    https://www.shmoop.com/hitchhikers-guide-to-the-galaxy/science-quotes-3.html

    Oh, and did I mention that tomorrow I need to lead an informal discussion on how to keep bread on the table after you get a PhD in astrophysics?

    Unfortunately, the people I am talking to (Millenials?) seem to have grown up without a sense of humour, and so I cannot use the above quote. But maybe I will anyway!

  22. “I think she was very shoddily treated. But that will make no difference.”

    Absolutely. My opinion on Hillary is that she would have made a good President…but all taken with all was a bad Candidate for the time.

  23. “Unfortunately, the people I am talking to (Millenials?) seem to have grown up without a sense of humour, and so I cannot use the above quote. But maybe I will anyway!”

    If they dont get that quote, WTF are they doing having been awarded degrees?? Challenge the buggers!! 🙂

  24. Nath

    It’s fine on a hot day, but D&M, how can you go past Chicken soup, or a lamb shank soup?

    Food, and my reaction to it, fascinates me.

    When I am working in the Rhineland, one of my favourite places on the planet, I totally crave Rinderbraten, goulash (yes, even the German version without the spicy paprika), potatoes and lard. And glorious sausage soup, pea and ham soup, and wurst mit brochen. In the glorious cold of the Christmas markets.With Gluwein.

    The, I go south, or back to Oz, and my preference for vegetarian food kicks back in.

    If I end up spending time in Siberia, I presume I will crave Vodka because the instant calories will keep me warm.

  25. Bludgers may be interested to know my local Labor branch had an outstanding meeting this evening. We had very lively discussions with two local MPs, Anne Aly and Sabine Winton, and passed motions after good debate on the TPP and on fracking in WA.

    We have a voice and we use it. Democracy is alive and well in Labor on the northern front.

  26. Anne Aly was in great form tonight. She is such a vibrant character….funny, energetic, clear, ambitious for her patch, intellectually forthright….and according to reports is on a good footing in Cowan with voters.

  27. I have been taken prisoner by goodness, of a sort. I am a building site now. I should say, I do not suppose that I have become good; but that goodness has occupied me; has over-run my walls and knocked in my doors; and set itself up in my rooms; has taken out the lead lights and installed clear glass in the windows; has pulled down the drapes and thrown them out.

    I am being renovated without a plan and still less with development approval, a licence or in accordance with the by-laws and the precinct code. My attic has been disturbed and forgotten artefacts and portraits brought to light, all the better for the years of storage. My cellar has been emptied, and old wines found; fortified wines with aging whiskey and stunning cognac, and manuscripts from trunks have been revealed, fine prose and poor translations alike. No maps have been dragged out, though I have been looking.

    Goodness has been rummaging through my chambers; stirring the dust and making a clatter. The sea breeze has blown strong and cold at night and the easterly warm in the morning, a question in the dark, an answer in the dim dawn light. Goodness has not left me for days and days and I have not slept. I have been made a hostage of the subtle and the sweet; and think my house may fall.

  28. Briefly
    In my previous life I had the pleasure of meeting Anne Aly several times, we even enjoyed lunch together.. and so I can attest that she is everything you have stated. A very charming & intelligent lady with lots to offer. Labor is lucky to have her.

  29. Gecko, I’m glad to hear it. I think she’s turning into a great MP. She really does get it and we’re proud to have her. She’s a strong voice. Having her available for branch meetings is also a boon. She really lifts these events and we had an excellent meeting tonight in part because of her contributions.

    She’s also offering strong support to Kim Travers in the coming election in Pearce. This is very good to see, as we all hope to defeat Porter and know that nothing can be taken for granted.

  30. WA is going to make a great contribution to the coming Labor government. We will have a delegation of real depth and ability, drawn from people with genuinely deep connections, knowledge and experience in the community. We could not be happier with our team. It’s also very obvious that the campaigns are well organised and running effectively, with growing on-ground support. We will have success. Labor has worked very hard here in the north to achieve success. We know what is required and we’re going to do it again.

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