Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

A world of hurt for the Coalition from Newspoll, with voting intention deep into crisis territory and Scott Morrison’s standing continuing to decline.

The Australian reports this fortnight’s Newspoll is even worse for the Coalition than last time, with the Labor lead now at 55-45. Labor now holds a five point lead on the primary vote, being up one to 40% with the Coalition down one to 35%, while the Greens and One Nation are steady on 9% and 6% respectively. Despite/because of last week’s charm offensive in Queensland, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings continue to deteriorate, being down two on approval to 39% and up three on disapproval to 47%. His lead as preferred prime minister has also narrowed, from 43-35 to 42-36. Bill Shorten is down two on approval to 35% and steady on disapproval at 50%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1802.

Also out today are the federal voting intention numbers from the YouGov Galaxy poll of Queensland, for which state voting intention numbers were provided yesterday. This has the two parties level on two-party preferred in the state, which is unchanged on the last such poll at the tail end of the Malcolm Turnbull era. The Coalition is up a point on the primary vote to 38%, with Labor steady on 34%, One Nation down one to 9% and the Greens steady on 9% (also included as a response option is Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, scoring all of 1%). The poll also finds 29% saying they would be more likely to vote Coalition now Scott Morrison is Prime Minister, with 25% opting for less likely and 42% for no difference. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 839. The Courier-Mail’s report on the poll can be found here, though I wouldn’t bother if I were you.

UPDATE: The Australian also has Newspoll results on becoming a republic, which records a dramatic ten point drop in support since April, from 50% to 40%, with “strongly in favour” down from 25% to 15%. Opposition is up from 41% to 48%, although strong opposition is steady at 22%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,343 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

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  1. Trade with Indonesia 16.5 billion and growing ( unless the Liberal screw it up) . It takes a special kind of ignorance to post the following.

    Bree says:
    Tuesday, November 13, 2018 at 7:03 pm

    So the Indonesians don’t like us for moving our embassy to Jerusalem, the capital of Israel. Then we should cut the half a billion dollars in foreign aid we give them annually, much better to spend that money on Australians rather than Indonesians anyway. PM Morrison should stand his ground on this, Australians are with him on this.

  3. Onions on bread, then sausage, then sauce, fold the bread and there you are. Makes perfect sense. It’s a pain when the onions fall off because they were put on top, let alone the slipping hazard.

    Or maybe it’s politically correct or something. Miranda Devine will no doubt tell her readers what to think about this vital issue.

  4. Aqualung
    The more we can sell on the way in, explaining that they are freshly made butcher’s snags, the more return sales we can generate. The kids are excellent agents so we try to engage them on the way in so they can work on their parents (and particularly grandparents!) whilst inside.

  5. Aqualung @ #1199 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 8:55 pm

    BK I usually grab my sanger sandwich on the way out so it never would have occurred to me. Shouldn’t really make any difference anyway. Taste wise.
    Twitter is twitter.

    I’d like to know where Bunnings get those sausages that have such a nice aroma … but taste of nothing at all. A perfect metaphor for most Bunnings products!

  8. Thinking of the VIctoria Cross, I went to a Remembrance Day performance of Faure’s Requiem and Vaughan Williams’ Dona Nobis Pacem at the Concert Hall. There was a display of some military decorations from WW1. The display had included some VCs, though they’d been removed before I got to see the display.

    It occurred to me that the decorations were Imperial colours, and noticed that the award of some had been stratified according to the rank of the recipient. I don’t know if this is still the case.

    I think we should be awarding our own colours; that the Victoria Cross is derived from another military tradition, a colonial tradition. I do not say this intending in any way to diminish the value or the meaning of awards made in the past. Very far from it. But I do think we should adopt some new symbols that are distinctly our own.

    This will probably provoke outrage. I hope not.

  9. Greensborough Growler @ #1193 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 8:47 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1189 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 8:43 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1186 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 8:41 pm

    Confessions @ #1184 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 8:40 pm

    Never mind wayne, where is adrian?

    Hiding in shame after be excoriated by WB.

    Unlike moi, who just keeps turning up like a bad penny. 😀

    Unfortunately, there is too much Victoria Cross imho.

    Once a punk, always a punk. It’s in my dna. 🙂

    Though I keep promising to myself that I will do better.

    Though, Greensborough Growler, I have to reflect on a similar conundrum that you must face. Do you keep on growling forever?

  10. And the flood gates have opened in Newcastle. Go the Matildas.

    I can’t say I can recall ever seeing any sign of a sausage sandwich on the floor in any of the Bunnings I’ve been in. I’m guessing they have someone keeping a constant lookout and a quick clean up.

  12. TPOF 7.51PM…

    there nost certainly is a gerrymander in the presidential elections (if thats the right word for it). By that I mean the disproportionate electoral college representation in traditionally red states. The point is, Clinton got the most votes yet she still lost. Thats what i mean by a gerrymander. Clearly the problem wasnt her lack of popularity, as is commonly mis-described, but the distribution of her popularity. And I dont ser why a better targeted campaign wouldnt get her over the line next time. I certainly cant see any reason why she would lose votrs. If anything she“ll be more popular and more fresh without Comey and emails and Russians dogging her.

  13. [1/3] Yesterday I promised to review the Foodbank decision. I have listened and decided to increase the Food Relief budget by $1.5 million over the next 4.5 years and have asked the Minister to place more focus on relief in drought affected areas.— Scott Morrison (@ScottMorrisonMP) November 12, 2018

    Isn’t this just a way of saying the government will get the money for Foodbank by taking it away from some drought relief programme?

  15. P1
    As I said, it is important to source good product. The sausages bought cheaply from supermarkets are indeed often tasteless and full of fat that leaves during the cooking process. They might cost 10 cents per serve more but the patrons appreciate the.
    The Bunnings employees put the word around their colleagues very quickly about the snag quality and this adds to sales on the day.

  16. C@tmomma @ #1208 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 9:04 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1193 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 8:47 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1189 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 8:43 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1186 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 8:41 pm

    Confessions @ #1184 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 8:40 pm

    Never mind wayne, where is adrian?

    Hiding in shame after be excoriated by WB.

    Unlike moi, who just keeps turning up like a bad penny. 😀

    Unfortunately, there is too much Victoria Cross imho.

    Once a punk, always a punk. It’s in my dna. 🙂

    Though I keep promising to myself that I will do better.

    Though, Greensborough Growler, I have to reflect on a similar conundrum that you must face. Do you keep on growling forever?

    When you have as many daughters as me, Yes!

  18. The first blog I wrote, I called myself ‘Victoria Cross of the 21st century’. It elicited howls of outrage. People were shocked that I could take the name of such a sacred symbol in jest. It was just a play on words in my mind. It meant a lot more to others. I eventually changed the name when I moved on to writing blogs for someone else.

  19. I’ve never been able to understand why the Bunnings sausage sizzle goes on through Summer. I really feel for the guys behind the griddle on those days.

  20. Dems flip a GOP Senate seat.

    Jeff FlakeVerified account@JeffFlake
    8h8 hours ago
    Congratulations to @kyrstensinema on a race well run, and won. It’s been a wonderful honor representing Arizona in the Senate. You’ll be great.

  22. The Greensborough Growler suggests Mr Morrison has an association with Victoria by virtue of being the Prime Minister of the Commonwealth of Australia, and Victoria being a member of that Commonwealth.

    However the behavior of Mr Morrison is such that I think in his opinion, Victoria is at best an occupied territory and at worst a land literally at war with Australia. No doubt it is because the football is played on ovals, the sausage rolls have carrot in them, the creamy soda is brown and there’s a sausage here called stras. Any variation is simply unacceptable to a mind like his. But perhaps he’s just a partisan, and doesn’t believe that any real patriotic Australian could ever vote Labor.

  28. C@t:

    A local children’s mental health service here uses sausage sizzle fundraisers year-round at Bunnings, Officeworks and Coles to raise income to keep their service going in the face of Abbott/Turnbull funding cuts.

  30. Felix @ #1221 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 9:12 pm

    The Greensborough Growler suggests Mr Morrison has an association with Victoria by virtue of being the Prime Minister of the Commonwealth of Australia, and Victoria being a member of that Commonwealth.

    However the behavior of Mr Morrison is such that I think in his opinion, Victoria is at best an occupied territory and at worst a land literally at war with Australia. No doubt it is because the football is played on ovals, the sausage rolls have carrot in them, the creamy soda is brown and there’s a sausage here called stras. Any variation is simply unacceptable to a mind like his. But perhaps he’s just a partisan, and doesn’t believe that any real patriotic Australian could ever vote Labor.

    Do we have false intelligence or an intelligence that is false?

  37. Brendan Donohoe
    ‏Verified account @BrendanDonohoe7
    4h4 hours ago

    What is Liberal candidate Meralyn Klein suggesting? That someone has actually “endorsed” the terrorism and murder in Bourke St? #7NewsMelb #VicVotes

  39. @BigA Adrian,

    a gerrymander is when the voters in a district are selected to ensure a certain result. A gerrymandered district will often have a very strange shape, and its boundaries will be completely meaningless to local people. However, a gerrymandered territory may have exactly the same number of voters/people in each district. Everyone’s vote is technically worth the same, but since the seats party A will win, they will win with 80%, and the seats that party B will win, they will win with 55%, there is a difference in the efficiency of a vote. The US Supreme Court has typically regarded gerrymander as a political matter and ignored it.

    What is found in US electoral college elections and the US and Australian Senates is malapportionment. In malapportioned districts, the number of voters per member is inconsistent. Thus, depending on where you live, your vote may be worth more or less; one million people living in state C may elect one member, while twenty thousand people living in state D and E may also elect one member each. The US Supreme Court has regarded malapportionment as completely unconstitutional to the US States; it is permitted only for the US Senate and by implication electoral college where the federal constitution has obligated it. In fact, while in Australia it is common for districts to vary in size by about 10% when created and they are permitted to vary by 25%, in the US any variance at all when created is likely to get your district thrown out — so sometimes communities of interest must be misallocated to districts in order to avoid malapportionment. (i.e. a neighborhood has to be split to avoid 700 people being on the wrong side of the line.)

    So that difference again:
    * Gerrymander: districts which are drawn to make one party or the other win the district.
    * Malapportionment: districts which have different numbers of voters in them.

  43. Do we have false intelligence or an intelligence that is false?

    GG, the interpretation of your question requires intelligence to which, alas, I am not privy.

  46. Big A Adrian

    there nost certainly is a gerrymander in the presidential elections (if thats the right word for it).

    _________________________________

    It’s not the right word. And I’m not being pedantic by saying that. The word gerrymander specifically refers to the manipulations of electoral boundaries for political benefit. The Wikipedia entry is here:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerrymandering

    It’s a very useful word to convey the dishonest manipulation of boundaries where ‘one vote=one value’ can be circumvented in practice but not technically by organising electoral boundaries so that your opponent’s supporters are packed into a disproportionately small number of electorates while your own supporters are spread around as many electorates as possible while still maintaining a safe majority in each of these electorates.

    What you are talking about is a fundamentally disproportionate allocation of voting value. In Australia, this disproportion is embedded in the Constitution in regard to the election of Senators, where each state elects the same number of senators regardless of the population of each state. Ditto with the US states where each state is also guaranteed an equal number of representatives in their Constitution. Referring to this problem as a gerrymander both robs the word of its specific meaning of a politician designed (not constitutionally embedded) manipulation and blurs the distinction between the two problems.

    This is particularly concerning because gerrymanders are far easier to address than constitutionally embedded allocations of power (which cannot be changed as local power changes hands).

  48. I was unaware that was a Senate inquiry into the ABC had been established:

    https://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/extraordinary-dysfunction-union-wants-overhaul-of-abc-board-appointments-20181113-p50fqv.html

    I see Fifield made 6 formal complaints, but how many unofficial ones has he made? After viewing 4 Corners I suspect he made many to his good mate and lackey Milne.

    I also see that Aunty’s backflipped on denying Sally McManus the opportunity to address journos and admin. staff at Ultimo.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/sally-mcmanus-event-delayed-after-abc-approval-comes-too-late-20181113-p50fr8.html

    I see Fifield’s dirty mits all over the original decision. Never mind Mitch, when you lose the communications portfolio in May, you’ll have the time to sell used-cars again.

  50. What do Victorians think of Matthew Guy & Pro-Mo’s opportunistic visit to Pellegrinis where Pro-Mo signed the visitors book

    And the family of Sisto have accepted the offer for a state funeral made by Dan Andrews

    As the perpetrator was identified by ASIO in 2015 and had recently become mentally unstable without Home Affairs tracking him, I reckon “as ye sow, so shall ye reap”
    see David Pope’s cartoon here
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/terror-and-faith-grey-areas-in-defining-the-jihad-of-the-times-20181112-h17sq2.html

    The perpetrator is a product of the unrelenting muslim bashing and cuts to mental health services. The Department of Home Affairs failed to recognize his danger.

    The ACTU distributed lobster scratchies to commuters at railway stations yesterday, which told punters about 3 different services slashed.

    https://twitter.com/andrew_lund/status/1061722388809695232

    A party that has run out of campaign funds because its secretary is fighting with the trustees of its fighting funds, who has gaoled 5 state directors for embezelment in the past 4 years really ought not run a Law and Order campaign

    surprisingly the ALP only have a 1 seat majority

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