Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

A world of hurt for the Coalition from Newspoll, with voting intention deep into crisis territory and Scott Morrison’s standing continuing to decline.

The Australian reports this fortnight’s Newspoll is even worse for the Coalition than last time, with the Labor lead now at 55-45. Labor now holds a five point lead on the primary vote, being up one to 40% with the Coalition down one to 35%, while the Greens and One Nation are steady on 9% and 6% respectively. Despite/because of last week’s charm offensive in Queensland, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings continue to deteriorate, being down two on approval to 39% and up three on disapproval to 47%. His lead as preferred prime minister has also narrowed, from 43-35 to 42-36. Bill Shorten is down two on approval to 35% and steady on disapproval at 50%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1802.

Also out today are the federal voting intention numbers from the YouGov Galaxy poll of Queensland, for which state voting intention numbers were provided yesterday. This has the two parties level on two-party preferred in the state, which is unchanged on the last such poll at the tail end of the Malcolm Turnbull era. The Coalition is up a point on the primary vote to 38%, with Labor steady on 34%, One Nation down one to 9% and the Greens steady on 9% (also included as a response option is Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, scoring all of 1%). The poll also finds 29% saying they would be more likely to vote Coalition now Scott Morrison is Prime Minister, with 25% opting for less likely and 42% for no difference. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 839. The Courier-Mail’s report on the poll can be found here, though I wouldn’t bother if I were you.

UPDATE: The Australian also has Newspoll results on becoming a republic, which records a dramatic ten point drop in support since April, from 50% to 40%, with “strongly in favour” down from 25% to 15%. Opposition is up from 41% to 48%, although strong opposition is steady at 22%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,343 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

  1. How do you spot Gerrymanders? I could find the links again, but a few months ago I came across a link to ‘Gerrymander plots’. I may get enthused and find the links again, but the idea is that you plot the winning margin for the winning team (party) on a graph, ordered by the margin of victory. If there is a disconnect in the plot as you cross the 50% line, then you’ve got a Gerrymander. I thought about this and decided to plot the winning margin for the LNP at the last election, using William Bowe’s data.

    This is what I got.

    (TPP percentages on the vertical axis VERSUS electorate order on the horizontal axis)

    Conclusion: No gerrymander in Australia.

  2. There is a photograph on The Guardian on line of Guy and Borrison in Melbourne – at a site which has been in the press of late

    Both smiling broadly

    No one else seems to be smiling and particularly the older lady in the photo

    Respect or a photo opportunity?


  3. BB@7:36pm
    Banking RC into Industry Superannuation funds

    Another Midas touch in reverse from MT. Another thing that has blown up in LNP metaphorical face.

  4. I did a Bunnings BBQ for my son’s school a couple of weeks ago.

    Onions then sausage. No arguments.

    Forget pitching to kids, we were set up downwind of one of the larger Westconnects construction sites. Would have sold hundreds to the workers there.

    Just a pity half the money we raised goes towards things you would think should be covered by the State Govt, like readers and replacing the bark in the kids playground.

  5. I think Pelligrinis would have a little too dated for Pro-Mo.
    The man don’t look like he appreciates grunge.
    I doubt Pro-Mo had stepped into the establishment until yesterday

    I have been into Pelligrini’s once and an older woman came out of the kitchen to chat and converse with me while I drank my coffee, which I found touching and quaint

  6. For those thinking about who in the Dems could take on Trump and the mobsters, the New Yorker has a long read on Deval Patrick’s, former governor of Massachusetts, presidential prospects. I’ve only had a quick speed read, but am putting it up before I turn in for the night. Here’s a snippet –

    Patrick is aware that, for some people, Trump’s ascendancy seems to prove that the country is too racist to elect another black man. He doesn’t agree, but he says that he is clear-eyed about the persistence of racism. “I never accepted the premise that with President Obama’s election we had achieved some post-racial moment,” he said. “I’m dealing all the time with the highs and the lows, the side-eyes and the full and genuine warm embrace, and everything in between. My wife talks about the ‘indignity du jour,’ like when you hear what people say when they don’t realize that there is a person of color on the elevator.” Obama was often seen as suppressing outrage to avoid being seen as an “angry black man.” The question for Patrick, should he decide to run, will be whether his serene temperament can withstand, and redirect, the ferocious anger that many Democrats feel toward Trump.

    https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/11/19/deval-patricks-presidential-prospects?mbid=nl_Magazine%20Daily%20List%20111219&CNDID=50169544&utm_source=nl&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Magazine%20Daily%20List%20111219&utm_content=&utm_brand=tny&utm_mailing=Magazine%20Daily%20List%20111219&hasha=9134cd863b78472b079b234016c40cd9&hashb=acb37fc9a04ae38a52f57306a32a719478e9f846&spMailingID=14605528&spUserID=MjAyNDE1NzYxMDQ4S0&spJobID=1520946964&spReportId=MTUyMDk0Njk2NAS2

  7. Message to Morrison.

    When someone dies, that is sad. When they are murdered it is fucking wrong! Anger is justified. But to intrude into that space is beyond words.

    GO AWAY

  8. I cant think of any current gerrymanders at the national level in Australia but maybe one or two at lower levels. City of Sydney Council for instance is forced by legislation to have business registered within the council area vote in their elections (to stop Lord Mayor Clover Moore). Though maybe that may be a stronger case of malapportionment than a gerrymander.

    The western rural seats of QLD used to have a greater variation from the standard. I think they got a “bonus” of 5000 voters (that didnt actually exist). Im not sure if they still exist since the last expansion of the QLD parliament.

    Otherwise there was the Playmander (Premier Playford in South Australia) for years until Don Dunstan. Funnily enough misapportioned elections still raise concerns in SA.

    There was the gerrymander through Joh Bjiekle Peterson in QLD which was started by Labor but ead used against them (which I believe like the abolition of the Legislative Council there by Labor ended up hurting them for the next 3 decades)

    Then there is the state upper houses which used to be by appointment of the government of the day which is a whole other type of inteference.

  9. In an age where fund raising has its challenges including inventiveness, a much sought after fund raising function is approaching Bunnings seeking a position on the roster for their BBQ set up

    Those approaching Bunnings include service clubs such as Rotary and schools

    Bunnings are selective when including groups on the roster and the level of enquiry means you may get one Saturday a month

    It can tip a couple of thousand into the coffers (net after snags, bread, sauce and onions) on a good day and depending on the size of the Bunnings store (because all stores are not free standing barns)

    I am unaware of Insurance or any other regulation Bunnings require – only that getting into the roster is a sought after outcome

  10. billie:

    I’m sure Andrews and Vic Labor are beyond thrilled Morrison is campaigning with the Liberals there. Let’s hope for Labor’s re-election hopes that this is the first of many ScoMo express visits to Victoria.

  11. Confessions at 10.02

    WA used to have a rural gerrymander before ‘one vote one value’ laws were passed.
    ____________________________________

    In that case it was malapportionment. Unless, of course, a gerrymander was also applied (but this would not be dependent on a lack of ‘one vote one value’).

  12. Interesting to see that the use of preferential voting in Maine state rep seat can confuse/upset some Americans!

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6380899/New-way-voting-faces-test-Maine-congressional-district.html

    In the UK the Lib-Dems in their Coalition with the Tories had an agreement to have a referendum on this and it lost 32%-68%. There was a lot of misinformation – saying that this system damages the “one person – one vote” ethos etc. Of course the Tories especially did not want a system that would possibly have meant Maggie Thatcher never won any elections (if Labour and Liberals/SDP had exchanged preferences)

  13. Inside Story (David Clune) backgrounds Michael Daley.

    Despite his rise within the parliamentary party, it is hard to say exactly what the alternative premier stands for. He has no obvious policy passion, as Carr had about the environment. Again, he seems more typical of a NSW Labor leader of the past, with a general commitment to centrist politics, effective service delivery, moderate reform and winning elections.

    He is presentable, personable and articulate. The archetypal family man who made good through hard work, he stresses the fact that he understands what ordinary people want. It is difficult to predict how the voters will respond to his leadership, how forgiving they will be of the Foley disaster, and how well Daley will perform when, as Neville Wran once memorably said, the blowtorch is applied to his belly.

    https://insidestory.org.au/labors-reset-in-new-south-wales/

  14. Late Riser
    says:
    Tuesday, November 13, 2018 at 9:58 pm
    Message to Morrison.
    When someone dies, that is sad. When they are murdered it is fucking wrong! Anger is justified. But to intrude into that space is beyond words.
    GO AWAY
    _______________________________
    To cynical political watchers we can understand the motives in Guy and Morrison turning up there. Although Shorten popped in earlier but no one seems to care about that.

    But for the man’s family and friends the fact that the PM arrived to pay his respects was for them a great honour and a feather in the cap of the café.

  15. IAD
    (quoting article on Daley)
    Again, he seems more typical of a NSW Labor leader of the past, with a general commitment to centrist politics, effective service delivery, moderate reform and winning elections.

    _____________________________

    Actually, a commitment to centrist policies, effective service delivery and moderate reform have been sadly lacking on the part of governments in NSW and the Commonwealth in the last five years. Given the posts on the unholy mess of Centrelink here earlier and the mess of NSW transport generally, I think that effective service delivery is heroic not humdrum at the moment.

  16. On gerrymandering in the city of Sydney it is even worse than you think.
    Not only do businesses get a vote, but they get two. And they get a fine if they don’t vote.

    In recent years journalists have often discussed voting rights in the City of Sydney, which gets attention because of the high profile of its council and because of its unusual voting laws. Not only do property-owning corporations get two votes in the City of Sydney, but voting is compulsory for them

    https://theconversation.com/votes-for-corporations-and-extra-votes-for-property-owners-why-local-council-elections-are-undemocratic-83791

  17. TPOF:

    Yes you’re right, more malapportionment, but I can’t remember now if a gerrymander existed before the laws changed. I remember the laws heralded some electoral boundary changes at the time, but others would know better than me.

  18. Well, everyone who mans a Bunnings sausage sizzle in summer has my sympathy and support. I can’t even eat a sausage in summer, let alone cook one! Let alone hundreds! It’s why I’m investigating cold soups to make this summer. 🙂

  19. Late Riser @ #1249 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 5:44 pm

    How do you spot Gerrymanders? I could find the links again, but a few months ago I came across a link to ‘Gerrymander plots’. I may get enthused and find the links again, but the idea is that you plot the winning margin for the winning team (party) on a graph, ordered by the margin of victory. If there is a disconnect in the plot as you cross the 50% line, then you’ve got a Gerrymander. I thought about this and decided to plot the winning margin for the LNP at the last election, using William Bowe’s data.

    This is what I got.

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    (TPP percentages on the vertical axis VERSUS electorate order on the horizontal axis)

    Conclusion: No gerrymander in Australia.

    Do it for the SA electorates and you’ll see what you’re looking for.

  20. ItzaDream:

    I’m now not very au fait with NSW politics, but from afar Daley seems to have a safe pair of hands. He’s already been critical of QT in the bear pit, promising to reform it if elected next year. He’s also proposed that an independent commissioner for parliamentary standards be appointed. Granted, he’s no Nifty Neville, but will probably grow into the job.

  21. B.S. Fairman

    Interesting update on Sweden. I think a minority government is more likely than a new election – all the other parties probably fear that in a second election the Sweden Democrats could campaign harder on the “chaos” of the others, and maybe get their vote up well over 20% by saying “the voices of our voters have to be heard, an deserve to be a part of any government”. Many pundits had predicted they would get over 20% this time, rather than the 17.6% they ended up getting, which nevertheless continues their rise from 2.0 to 5.7 to 12.9 over the previous three elections.

  22. Nath

    But for the man’s family and friends the fact that the PM arrived to pay his respects was for them a great honour and a feather in the cap of the café.

    ____________________________________

    I agree. I don’t think there is a problem with them being there.

    But for the wider public, the use of the occasion to grandstand, even indirectly, on how the Liberals are tougher on ‘terrorists’ could not have gone down. Both Shorten and Guy would have been regulars and, in Shorten’s case at least, reflected only on his experience of Sisto (which was similar to many others).

    There is often a situation of damned if you do; damned if you don’t for politicians in cases like this. The answer is to do, but with sensitivity. Guy, in particular, showed desperation more than sensitivity.

  23. Im on the record for saying Foley was shit in NSW but that I saw no need to change leaders. That was prior to last weeks revelation. A quiet leader that gets things done and removes some of the stench of old NSW Labor is probably a good idea.

  24. These were distributed to Victorian rail commuters yesterday because the state electon is on Saturday Nov 24 to remind voters of Liberal Matthew Guy’s dinner at the Lobster Cave with a mobster from Sicily with a lot of asparagus farms in Kooweerup awaiting rezoning. And don’t forget the 5 Liberal staffers in jail for embezelment

  25. nath:

    Shorten also visited Pellegrini’s Espresso Bar, but while it was still closed.

    I also note your earlier post re. the “Washminster Mutation”.

  26. Investment losses should not be deductible against wage or salary income. Permitting that deduction is a subsidy.

    Sales of real estate, including that which the owner has occupied for the previous 12 months, should be taxed at the full capital gains tax rate. There should be no discount. The discount is a subsidy.

    Ideally, capital gains on land would be taxed away completely. The owner didn’t produce the land. They just bought it and held it for a while. They don’t deserve a financial windfall because of population growth and infrastructure development that they had nothing to do with.

    People should be rewarded for doing socially useful, environmentally sustainable things. Buying a piece of land and hanging onto it for a while doesn’t qualify. The capital gain on the land should be taxed away completely.

  27. Liberal Matthew Guy’s dinner at the Lobster Cave with a mobster from Sicily with a lot of asparagus farms in Kooweerup awaiting rezoning
    __________________________________
    Now this actually is important. Most of the asparagus in Australia is grown in Koo Wee Rup. I don’t know why, perhaps it’s the soil, it’s a former swamp. But surely we can’t sacrifice the only asparagus producing region for another suburb? Look at all the beautiful orchard areas we have lost in Victoria, and Werribee South, where most of Australia’s lettuces are grown, is also to become a suburb. Where will it all end?

  28. In SA, I have a recollection that Labor under Walsh were in Opposition despite winning 54% of the vote and due to the Playmander, which was the term of the day

    Walsh eventually did win government and where the Labor vote was even stronger, but the margin in seats was minimal

    Don then took over from Walsh – to counter Steele Hall as LCL Leader, Hall being 37 and Walsh near the (then) compulsory retirement age of 67

    Walsh backed Corcoran (who would later become premier) but Don led Labor to their 1968 victory and subsequent victories – despite Murdoch and the Establishment

    Gretel was the only full time Tutor at The University of Adelaide – Don later marrying Adel Koh which livened Murdoch and the Establishment up even more!!

    The great irony of my time was Bond coming onto the SANTOS Board and Bonython (Establishment so an avowed Dunstan hater) approaching Don who introduced legislation limiting the individual Share holding in SANTOS forcing Bond off the Register and the Board

    Don was Deputy Leader to Walsh and AG upon Walsh becoming Premier

    A true visionary – and the Number 1 Member of the right footy Club

  29. If I had been PM today, I would have visited the cafe, paid my respects to the family (if they were there and wished to meet me) and left without making a speech or taking questions.
    Reporters would have been told in advance that I did not think it appropriate to be speaking about government policy or promoting a candidate in a coming election at such a time.
    I guess attitudes like that is why I will never be PM.
    Sigh.

  30. John Reidy @ #1272 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 10:13 pm

    On gerrymandering in the city of Sydney it is even worse than you think.
    Not only do businesses get a vote, but they get two. And they get a fine if they don’t vote.

    In recent years journalists have often discussed voting rights in the City of Sydney, which gets attention because of the high profile of its council and because of its unusual voting laws. Not only do property-owning corporations get two votes in the City of Sydney, but voting is compulsory for them

    https://theconversation.com/votes-for-corporations-and-extra-votes-for-property-owners-why-local-council-elections-are-undemocratic-83791

    This was the Conservative’s second exploding cigar attempt to get rid of Clover Moore, and the accountability she championed. They legislated that business would have votes, and she *increased* her polling.

    The first exploding cigar was legislating her out of Parliament by forcing the issue of not being able to be Mayor and a member of parliament. She chose Mayor, and Alex Greenwich was elected in her stead, and as he says himself, they got two Clovers for their trouble – he and she.

  31. Rossmcg:

    If it looks like political opportunism, sounds like political opportunism, smells like political opportunism and walks like political opportunism, you can bet it’s political opportunism.

    But the poignant scene didn’t last long.

    The Victorian opposition leader, Matthew Guy, and the prime minister, Scott Morrison, soon dropped by with a huge press pack of television crews, reporters and photographers in tow.

    The prime minister ordered a flat white and expressed sympathies to staff and co-owner, Nino Pangrazio.

    “We’ve all got to find our Sisto smiles; that’s the best message we can send,” Morrison said.

    “It’s very humbling to be here, just listening to the stories of Sisto. There are so many people here, celebrating a life well lived regardless of how violently and terribly it was taken.”

    Morrison later denied he was politicising a tragedy by campaigning for the Victorian state election at a site of mourning.

    “I’m not. I’m here to pay my respects and talk to the very issues that took place right here in this street,” he said.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/13/political-circus-comes-to-pellegrinis-as-cafe-reopens-after-bourke-street-attack

  32. BILL LAWRY: It’s a great day for Australia and it’s a great day for Victoria, a great day for the world.
    BILL: It’s all happening here, the tension, the drama, the buzz, the atmosphere.
    BILL: Got him! Yes.. Piss Off. He’s Out.
    BILL: I love him, I want to boof him. Get him up here.
    TONY: Bill shut the f*ck up or the pigeon gets it
    TONY: I’m warning you Bill, if that pigeon craps on my scorecard…
    BILL: Canary yellow? That’s Australian gold my friend and don’t you f*ckin’ forget it! Canary yellow indeed..

  33. So how often has Borrison frequented the Establishment?

    His message left in the memorial book suggests they were friends or acquaintances. But his turning up to the cafe with hordes of media in tow suggests he didn’t know the man at all.

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