Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

A world of hurt for the Coalition from Newspoll, with voting intention deep into crisis territory and Scott Morrison’s standing continuing to decline.

The Australian reports this fortnight’s Newspoll is even worse for the Coalition than last time, with the Labor lead now at 55-45. Labor now holds a five point lead on the primary vote, being up one to 40% with the Coalition down one to 35%, while the Greens and One Nation are steady on 9% and 6% respectively. Despite/because of last week’s charm offensive in Queensland, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings continue to deteriorate, being down two on approval to 39% and up three on disapproval to 47%. His lead as preferred prime minister has also narrowed, from 43-35 to 42-36. Bill Shorten is down two on approval to 35% and steady on disapproval at 50%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1802.

Also out today are the federal voting intention numbers from the YouGov Galaxy poll of Queensland, for which state voting intention numbers were provided yesterday. This has the two parties level on two-party preferred in the state, which is unchanged on the last such poll at the tail end of the Malcolm Turnbull era. The Coalition is up a point on the primary vote to 38%, with Labor steady on 34%, One Nation down one to 9% and the Greens steady on 9% (also included as a response option is Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, scoring all of 1%). The poll also finds 29% saying they would be more likely to vote Coalition now Scott Morrison is Prime Minister, with 25% opting for less likely and 42% for no difference. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 839. The Courier-Mail’s report on the poll can be found here, though I wouldn’t bother if I were you.

UPDATE: The Australian also has Newspoll results on becoming a republic, which records a dramatic ten point drop in support since April, from 50% to 40%, with “strongly in favour” down from 25% to 15%. Opposition is up from 41% to 48%, although strong opposition is steady at 22%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,343 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

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  1. Even if the Galaxy 50-50 is a Federal poll that doesn’t mean it is inconsistent with a National 55-45, though it is a bit of a stretch.
    Queensland has always been strong federally for the coalition. A 50-50 result in Queensland is bad for them.

  3. It’s worth remembering that the changes since the last Newspoll are margin-of-error stuff, but clearly Coalition took a bath post-coup, and things seem to have stayed there. There’s that old line about political first impressions being like wet cement, and views about Morrison appear in to be setting hard.

    I can see why the Coalition was seriously considering splitting the half-Senate and House elections – they have every reason to be desperate.

  4. If Galaxy poll is correct then LNP must be hurting very badly in the rest of the country.

    Either way great Newspoll. Time for bed now before heading out to leafletting local train station for trade unions 🙂

  8. If the writs are issued tomorrow, there could be an election on 15th of December. The AEC would have to work over the break tallying postal votes.

    So the knifing would have to be swift and decisive.

  9. Mavis Smith says:
    Sunday, November 11, 2018 at 9:46 pm
    The pic GG posted of the Blunderbus going over the cliff obviously wasn’t photoshopped.

    Can anyone recall what the caption was on that one? I remember thinking at the time how funny it was, probably the best of a very good lot.

  10. I’ve done a couple of googles and failed, so what is the shortest time between an election being called and held. Can they call an election tomorrow for 1 December?

  14. “If the writs are issued tomorrow, there could be an election on 15th of December. The AEC would have to work over the break tallying postal votes.”

    So what is the rule?

  18. Ante Meridian @ #58 Sunday, November 11th, 2018 – 9:02 pm

    If the writs are issued tomorrow, there could be an election on 15th of December. The AEC would have to work over the break tallying postal votes.

    So the knifing would have to be swift and decisive.

    Morrison might call the election himself. The he would at least go out with one positive achievement.

  21. Thanks Steve777. There must be some in what passes for a government thinking maybe the rotten tooth needs pulling before sepsis sets in. Save what is save able now.

  22. C@momma re the Queensland Galaxy poll

    That 50-50 Galaxy poll of federal voting intentions in Queensland is actually not far from being out of line with this poll. A 50-50 at a federal election in Queensland would actually be a 4 percent swing to Labor. A 55-45 nationally would be around a 5 percent swing to Labor.

  25. “He is much maligned, but we should remember Shaun Marsh at his best, is better than just about anyone.
    Think about that for a moment.”

    Something for the NSW brigade.

  26. WWP

    33 days from issue of writs – too many complications to call an election for mid December

    And realistically, why on earth would Scotty or any successor go to a certain defeat early? Makes no sense at all.

  33. “So the knifing would have to be swift and decisive.”

    And take place tomorrow, or possibly early the day after, when the House is still in recess. Won’t happen.

  38. Does anyone know if William adds the single state federal polls to Bludgertrack, or is it simply based on the national federal polls such as the just released Newspoll?

  40. “The rule is 33 days minimum from the issue of the writs to the election day.”

    Thank you. So is you spill to Bishop, or Dutton on the Sunday night 25 November and wake up showboat Pete to issue the writs, you could have a 29 December election? If I was a lib I’d be very seriously talking to people bout that option. Worst possible outcome I enjoy January as a former member of Parliament.

  41. Back to the Future II does have real world parallels:

    Biff Tanner -> Donald Trump. It has been said that the character, a bully and, in the alternative 1985, a powerful, corrupt plutocrat, was based on The Donald.

    The alternative 1985 was the world that the IPA-neo Liberal spivs would bring about if they got their way.

  42. C@t
    She’s not a criminal genius. She had some grievance against her employers and told people she was going to get back at them.

  44. My.

    Gosh.

    Last time I predicted the Newspoll, I thought they were heading into a period of stability: I predicted we’d mostly see 47s with a few deviations to 46 or 48 just to make sure Galaxy are still doing their jobs and asking fresh questions.

    If I could swallow, I would eat my hat. Since it’s in Abbot’s interest to see a coup happen before the election (to spoil Dutton, in the off-chance that both of them make it through the election), will we see another?

    When you’re in this territory at this point in the cycle, this logic surely begins to look sound:

    P1. We must do something.
    P2. This is something.
    _________________
    C. Therefore, we must do this.

  45. [Thank you. So is you spill to Bishop, or Dutton on the Sunday night 25 November and wake up showboat Pete to issue the writs, you could have a 29 December election?]
    If the leadership was changed to Bishop or Dutton, Pete would need confirmation they had confidence of the House before granting an election.

    This could result in Shorten becoming PM before the election.

  46. Any government that called an election smack bang in the middle of the Christmas holidays would be destroyed. Mind you this particular government has made political suicide an art form.

  48. “Newman and Molan on Sky now saying it’s shocking that the unions are donating to Labor.”

    Well, it’s shocking that a fascist like Molan is in Parliament and probably considered a future minister in a Coalition Government, so there you are, shocks all round.

  49. Darn:

    [‘Can anyone recall what the caption was on that one? I remember thinking at the time how funny it was, probably the best of a very good lot.’]

    It’s all Labor’s fault.

  50. SD ‘Morrisons ratings going over a cliff just like his bus.How will Murdoch spin this result.They cant even use PPM this time.’

    My prediction is that they will ignore it and not mention it at all.

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