Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

A world of hurt for the Coalition from Newspoll, with voting intention deep into crisis territory and Scott Morrison’s standing continuing to decline.

The Australian reports this fortnight’s Newspoll is even worse for the Coalition than last time, with the Labor lead now at 55-45. Labor now holds a five point lead on the primary vote, being up one to 40% with the Coalition down one to 35%, while the Greens and One Nation are steady on 9% and 6% respectively. Despite/because of last week’s charm offensive in Queensland, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings continue to deteriorate, being down two on approval to 39% and up three on disapproval to 47%. His lead as preferred prime minister has also narrowed, from 43-35 to 42-36. Bill Shorten is down two on approval to 35% and steady on disapproval at 50%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1802.

Also out today are the federal voting intention numbers from the YouGov Galaxy poll of Queensland, for which state voting intention numbers were provided yesterday. This has the two parties level on two-party preferred in the state, which is unchanged on the last such poll at the tail end of the Malcolm Turnbull era. The Coalition is up a point on the primary vote to 38%, with Labor steady on 34%, One Nation down one to 9% and the Greens steady on 9% (also included as a response option is Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, scoring all of 1%). The poll also finds 29% saying they would be more likely to vote Coalition now Scott Morrison is Prime Minister, with 25% opting for less likely and 42% for no difference. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 839. The Courier-Mail’s report on the poll can be found here, though I wouldn’t bother if I were you.

UPDATE: The Australian also has Newspoll results on becoming a republic, which records a dramatic ten point drop in support since April, from 50% to 40%, with “strongly in favour” down from 25% to 15%. Opposition is up from 41% to 48%, although strong opposition is steady at 22%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,343 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

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  1. Catmomma, previous thread. In the small community in which I was brought up there was a man who looked a bit like the man in your photo, but he had lost an eye as well. A lovely bloke, and never seemed to feel sorry for himself, he used to get around with a veil. “Handy for keeping the flies off”, he used to say.

  6. “If the leadership was changed to Bishop or Dutton, Pete would need confirmation they had confidence of the House before granting an election.
    This could result in Shorten becoming PM before the election.”

    You would do a deal with, either the ALP, or enough cross benchers so there was no doubt. But if you have to test the numbers on the Monday, do you still have the 33 days on the button or are you one short?

    “And realistically, why on earth would Scotty or any successor go to a certain defeat early? Makes no sense at all.”

    You would have to believe that you’d get some kind of honeymoon from either Dutton, Bishop or whomever you were moving to. Obviously if you believed they could do more than a honeymoon you’d wait, but if you thought neither Dutton nor Bishop has the actual goods to sustain it, you’d lock in a ‘brave courageous reset’.

    Morrison is an absolute clown he is only going to go early if they tell him they’ll spill otherwise or if his God talks to him, but his God is a bit of bastard who likes torturing children and then praying and crying instead of helping the children, so don’t discount his god screwing it up for him. It is pretty clear the NRA has the same prick of a god as Morrison.

  7. Honeymoon period over.How far will the Prime Muppet fall? Hopefully a record defeat at the next election. 55-45 behind.Its all Labors fault and Bill Shorten still has questions to answer.

  10. Kambah Mick @ #100 Sunday, November 11th, 2018 – 10:30 pm

    Catmomma, previous thread. In the small community in which I was brought up there was a man who looked a bit like the man in your photo, but he had lost an eye as well. A lovely bloke, and never seemed to feel sorry for himself, he used to get around with a veil. “Handy for keeping the flies off”, he used to say.

    It’s the sort of gallows humour that kept them going. Bless ’em. 🙂

  11. I might just mention in passing that with the small sample size (839), the margin of error is 3.5%. Not that anyone other than serious psephologicists like William would consider that.

    So look on the bright side. It might be 58.5-41.5. Even the downside is a convincing Labor win.

    As for the headline in tomorrow’s National Rupert, “Morrison retains lead as Preferred Prime Minister” or similar.

  14. Steve777
    says:
    Sunday, November 11, 2018 at 10:21 pm
    Back to the Future II does have real world parallels:
    Biff Tanner -> Donald Trump. It has been said that the character, a bully and, in the alternative 1985, a powerful, corrupt plutocrat, was based on The Donald.
    ________________
    No shit? Iloved those movies as a kid. that is cool.

  15. Yeah I kinda like he idea of Abbott being the one that goes down on election night, but lets not get too cocky. Besides with Abbott as backbencher he’s more likely to lose his own seat.

  17. For some unknown reason Paul Murray’s not discussing tonight’s Newspoll, probably not to distress his 60,000 viewing audience.

  18. When a prime minister is travelling around a State in a bus with electioneering material on the bus, and there is no election and maybe not for 7 months, then that says it all

    In the mean time issues such as the Cash Rate remaining at 1.5% and expected to continue to stay at that level for the remainder term of this government (why?), Retail under very real pressure and struggling to survive (also confirmed from the Street where the description is “dead”, wages growth continuing to be flat, media companies under real pressure and now house prices moderating, no coherent energy policy hence gas and electricity prices continuing to increase plus the certainty that health cover premiums will increase significantly and well in excess of a benign inflation rate plus other issues not being addressed except for windy rhetoric promoting a “Minister for reducing energy costs” and a “Minister for busting population growth”, both Abbott appointments and the remainder plotters against Turnbull – except the revulsive Sukkar – sitting in the Cabinet along with those who say they supported Turnbull there is a terminal cancer making the government dysfunctional

    And it is a minority government – with the polling putting pressure on all Independents who will look to distance themselves from a terminal government to retain credibility because if they support this terminal and dysfunctional government they may be brought down with them due to association

    And this summary only touches the surface

    The problem is the adherence to right wing idealogy – and I will defer to Stiglitz’s description of that description and the impact

    Meanwhile, the wheels on the bus go round and round, round and round all the way to oblivion (with thanks to our ever increasing number of grand-children, the eldest of whom is on the cusp of turning 6)

    Change the leader – again?

    But who to?

    And, as we have successively seen, the ideology remains regardless

    Perhaps we could declare War on China, or a Muslim Nation such as Indonesia

    Do we have a target such as Thatcher had?

    Perhaps Tasmania, or Kangaroo Island, or King Island – or a State such as Victoria

    But not Queensland because the bus carrying our pm is there

    What a pathetic joke this government is

    The real problem is the agenda it is setting for the incoming government replicating the abject mess Hawke and Keating inherited

    And they used Howard in Wentworth (and dismissed him in favour of Menzies) and are using the relic of failure and division in Victoria

    Fair dinkum

  19. They mocked Idiocracy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Idiocracy as being too far fetched.
    And then there was Trump.

    During the 2016 presidential primaries, writer Etan Cohen[36] and others expressed opinions that the film’s predictions were converging on accuracy,[37][38][39] which, during the general election, director Mike Judge also said.[40] At the time, Judge also compared Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump—who later won and became President of the United States—to the movie’s dim-witted wrestler-turned-president, Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Herbert Camacho.[40] When asked about predicting the future, he remarked, “I’m no prophet, I was off by 490 years.”[41]

    Comparisons have been made between the film and Trump’s presidency.[42][43][44] In an article for Salon.com, Trump was called a sufferer of the Dunning-Kruger effect, a phenomenon whereby unintelligent and incompetent people fail to recognize their incompetence.[45] An article for Collider pointed out the ways in which Trump’s positions echoed the poor political decisions of the characters in the film in areas such as science, business, entertainment, environment, healthcare, law enforcement, and politics.[46] Internet memes have spawned comparing Trump to the film.[47][48][49][50]

  22. [‘But who to?’]

    Dutton I hope, on the forlorn hope that he can carry Queensland. But more likely Bishop, if they are that dumb to change leaders in the space of a couple of months.

  28. Mr Benson in The Australian: “The reprisal, which forced Mr Morrison to respond by claiming Mr Turnbull was dumped because he didn’t connect with mainstream Australia, followed the Prime Minister’s week-long bus tour of regional Queensland …”

    And there you have the government’s problem in a nutshell: their belief that people (like their branch members) who listen to right wing shock jocks and push socially conservative positions are “mainstream”. On that, Messrs Turnbull and Laundy are correct. Twelve months ago, the right wingers declared the same sex marriage survey to be a referendum on the entire progressive agenda. It takes a special kind of stupidity not to learn the lessons from the result of that process.

  29. Murdoch’s tabloids reporting on the alleged strawberries ‘ tamperer. Can’t see a mention of Newspoll, probably in the sports’ section.

  30. “Musk has a lot of flaws but he is closer to reality than a lot of politicians.”

    It is an intellectual approach, although it can be phrased in a few ways, that must be 20 years old, it was right 20 years ago. Now when the economic forces also point to renewables, independent of environmental concerns, you know, little concerns like humans still existing in 80 years, it is a no brainer. Well unless you are in the LNP or one of their brain dead followers.

    For the reader / writers / published authors out there, if a writer wanted sensual, sexy even, but not paragraphs of tits and dicks, who would be a good writer to study / emulate?

  31. “@vanOnselenP tweets
    Newspoll wow!”

    He promised he was only going to use twitter as an advertising funnel, after his stupid writing on Nazis, and he should really have kept to his word. For me he has because I blocked the egotistical idiot, he should just sign up to the LNP and be done with it.

  32. steve davis:

    [‘60000 is 0.0024% of the population. P Murray is so influential.A legend in his own mind.’]

    The way he carries on you’d think he’d have an audience of a million. Like the Oz, SkyNews must run in the red.

  33. Im sure people think Scomo is trying to be like Trump, and have seen right through him. We have already had our Trump (Abbott)and the punters dont want anyone who resembles him again.

  34. That paltry single digit primary must be setting off alarm bells at Greens HQ. Going backwards under current leadership.

    Meanwhile Labor continues to climb steadily and surely.

    “Voters are turning away from major parties.”

    Pfft.

  37. Steve777

    Watching Beatles, pleasantly surprised that there even was a Newspoll tonight. Everyone has missed the real reason for this result – which will be proclaimed loudly by Morrison et al tomorrow.

    It is all Malcolm’s fault! (His qanda presentation on Thursday night)

    Wentworth was Malcolm’s fault, this Newspoll result was Malcolm’s fault, and if they lose the election? You guessed it- Malcolm again!

  38. From his various front bench positions, Scummo thought that PM thing looked pretty easy. When the chance came he got in rolled up his sleeves put on his cap and got stuck in. Toured maroon country in a blue bus, lined up with Trump about the embassy and won’t shut up. That shot at the female ABC reporter shows the pressure is on.

    Abbott and co are holding fund raisers to get back the ‘real Liberal’ party. Despite what his base tells him, most Australians do not want this Nation to have Church involved in State issues.

    55 – 45 , what in heavens name to do to stop this falling further. Would his ego let him walk? Even J Bish would have trouble selling policies that no one wants. The back bench is now on loose bowel tablets and the 7 or 8 named by MT have got a humiliating session coming up.

    Do you cheer for your team or just the captain? I think most reasonable people will get to like Shorten if he becomes Leader of our Nation.

  40. “Murdoch’s tabloids reporting on the alleged strawberries ‘ tamperer’. Can’t see a mention of Newspoll, probably in the sports’ section.”

    Obviously the ‘tamperer’ doesn’t have a name like Ahmed bin Abdul otherwise it would have been ‘strawberry terrorist’.

  41. As I think I mentioned this morning, the treating of a leader with derision is probably the best way to destroy him … they did so on insiders this morning … and if THEY are wiling to do it, the electorate would be a step or five ahead of that

    The number of send-up, bus jokes, hat jokes and muppet jokes are quite overwhelming … no respect for a PM is worse than hatred.

    Same in the US – when they start laughing at Trump instead of being angry at him, he’ll fizzle a lot faster

  43. Desert Qlder
    says:
    Sunday, November 11, 2018 at 10:54 pm
    That paltry single digit primary must be setting off alarm bells at Greens HQ. Going backwards under current leadership.

  45. With advancements in DNA technology, it’s become very difficult to commit the perfect crime. You need to wear a full protective body suite, and tell no one of your criminal activities, not even your mother, and certainly not your cell mate

  47. Julie Bishop only got only vote from her home state in the last spill. The men in the Federal Liberal Party would rather lose than be lead by a woman.

  49. Nath,

    Don’t just post a gif for the sake of it, they have to be funny.

    Quality over quantity, brevity is the soul of wit…yada yada yada.

  50. Mr Morrison is the first PM in my lifetime who hadn’t previously been his party’s leader, deputy leader or Senate leader. He’s also, in terms of length of parliamentary and ministerial experience, up there with Mr Turnbull as the least qualified Liberal PM there’s ever been. It seems to me that his colleagues have lost all sense of what sorts of knowledge and abilities are actually needed to do the job properly, in all its different dimensions.

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