Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

A world of hurt for the Coalition from Newspoll, with voting intention deep into crisis territory and Scott Morrison’s standing continuing to decline.

The Australian reports this fortnight’s Newspoll is even worse for the Coalition than last time, with the Labor lead now at 55-45. Labor now holds a five point lead on the primary vote, being up one to 40% with the Coalition down one to 35%, while the Greens and One Nation are steady on 9% and 6% respectively. Despite/because of last week’s charm offensive in Queensland, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings continue to deteriorate, being down two on approval to 39% and up three on disapproval to 47%. His lead as preferred prime minister has also narrowed, from 43-35 to 42-36. Bill Shorten is down two on approval to 35% and steady on disapproval at 50%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1802.

Also out today are the federal voting intention numbers from the YouGov Galaxy poll of Queensland, for which state voting intention numbers were provided yesterday. This has the two parties level on two-party preferred in the state, which is unchanged on the last such poll at the tail end of the Malcolm Turnbull era. The Coalition is up a point on the primary vote to 38%, with Labor steady on 34%, One Nation down one to 9% and the Greens steady on 9% (also included as a response option is Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, scoring all of 1%). The poll also finds 29% saying they would be more likely to vote Coalition now Scott Morrison is Prime Minister, with 25% opting for less likely and 42% for no difference. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 839. The Courier-Mail’s report on the poll can be found here, though I wouldn’t bother if I were you.

UPDATE: The Australian also has Newspoll results on becoming a republic, which records a dramatic ten point drop in support since April, from 50% to 40%, with “strongly in favour” down from 25% to 15%. Opposition is up from 41% to 48%, although strong opposition is steady at 22%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,343 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

  1. Good afternoon all,

    I wonder if the greens school anti discrimination bill has had any scrutiny from legal / constitutional and human rights experts and stakeholders from the education sector to determine what, if any, unintended consequences it may contain ?

    As a party of government labor will work with the current government through commitee process and engage with experts to ensure any legislation that is put forward is ” fit for purpose ” and addresses the actual issue while not blowing everything up with unintended consequences.

    The greens ? They could not give a ratz arse. It is all about seeking relevance.

    Cheers and a great day to all.

  2. Jones had 3 operations on his spine last year- from the public evidence sounds fairly botched
    He also had surgery for carcinoma prostate in 2015

  3. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. – Martin Luther King Jr

    Love will tear us apart. – Joy Division.

  4. Labor is weak when it comes to Islamic extremism, Tony Burke wanted to bring in a radical Islamist hate preacher not long ago and now they think calling out Islamic extremism will offend the Moslems. The swinging voters will punish Labor for this at the federal election.

  5. steve davis @ #959 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 2:32 pm

    That ship has sailed long long ago.

    Not for RWNJs. They still believe they can win the election solely on “Islamic Terrorists on Boats!” and “Bill Shorten – Boo!”

    Probably best to just leave them to their delusions – as long as they believe such nonsense, they won’t try to come up with any actual policies.

  6. That ship has sailed long long ago.

    Nah, it still grabs at people who need slogans to help justify their prejudices and give meaning to otherwise ordinary lives by reminding them who to hate.

    ‘I may be a nothin but at least I am an Aussie and not a lefty, socialist, greenie tree hugger, inner city, atheist, muslim, brown skinned, reffo, latte chardonnay sipping, abo, poofter’

  7. Well that was a bit ugly this morning in relation to Alan Jones.

    One would suggest a simple,

    Won’t be missed!

    would more than cover the situation.

  8. I agree with Yabba there is nothing wrong with wishing all sorts of ill on one’s adversaries.

    I do so because I agree with Don that just wishing all sorts of ill does not in itself cause anything harmful to happen.

    I agree with Bushfire Bill that publishing ill-wishes (not the ill-wishes themselves) is contemptible. As Yabba seems to regard the publishing of his ill-will towards Jones as having the potential to be heard somehow by Jones or at least those who would be more generously disposed towards him than Yabba (possibly everyone) then his publication DOES cause harm beyond the wish itself to Jones or others.

    Wishing something doesn’t mean anything.

    Saying something always means some thing.

  9. Boerwar says:
    Tuesday, November 13, 2018 at 2:57 pm
    I met two people yesterday who had never heard of Morrison.

    That would be nice for them, and lucky for Morrison too.

  10. I am on the side of (n0w) not wishing death, pain or suffering on my political enemies but I have the strong feeling that I may have done so on several or even many occasions in the past.

  11. Jones has wished ill on many in his time. He has broadcast his animosity and traded on it. He has made a living from it. I can feel sympathy for him if he’s ill and in pain. But I will be very pleased if he gives up transmitting hate-for-cash.

  12. I see that there is talk around that Ms Clinton and her thousands of emails may make another run for POTUS.
    I do hope the Dems can do a bit better than Clinton but not as bad as Sanders.

  13. PB serves to provide a counter-argument to two widely-held notions …

    1. That age brings wisdom and maturity
    2. That youth brings open-mindedness and tolerance

  14. nath attempts to write a thoughtful post at 1.10pm.

    nath puts up a puerile meme about Bill Shorten at 1.59pm.

    I think it’s called ‘reverting to type’.

  15. And more closet Greens must be right winger:

    Josh Butler
    ‏Verified account @JoshButler
    3m3 minutes ago

    “He is still a member of a Facebook group called “Drawing Dicks on the Herald Sun,” which he declined to answer questions on” may very well be the funniest sentence ever written in the history of political journalism

    Would the Trio on PB please explain ?

  16. Peter van Onselen
    ‏Verified account @vanOnselenP
    1h1 hour ago

    Senate QT: Cormann asked about Morrison sacked as head of Tourism Australia. Cormann: you are flogging a dead horse. Not what he meant, but true story…. #auspol

  17. Thank you KB. Another excellent piece of analysis.

    One point though is that the Government are fast running out of time because there are only a couple of weeks of Parliament till the Christmas recess which cuts out a number of weeks that the Libs might have had to mount a recovery because Australia is on holidays.

    My guess is that Australians having time to reflect on the performance of this government may give a huge thumbs down. So, their position in 2019 may be even worse than it is now.

  18. Bill Shorten will become PM whether or not anonymous bludgers try to sully his name. The Labor brand is in good shape while the Lib counterpart has taken a lot of damage and seems likely to sustain a good deal more in the months ahead. Since party affiliation is far more important than leader-id in determining voting intention, there’s almost nothing that a bludger could say that will affect final voting decisions and the outcome of the election.

    In the current circumstances, where the actual PM has negative and worsening net-sat numbers, and the LOTO numbers are improving, leadership is certainly a plus Labor and a detractor for the Liberals.

  19. Robert French
    ‏ @rjfrancais
    2h2 hours ago

    #BREAKING A worker from the Yallourn Power Station has died. The man, in his 50s, was working on one of the station’s generating units during an outage, when a high voltage circuit breaker exploded. @WorkSafe_Vic is investigating #gippsnews

  20. Greensborough Growler says:
    Tuesday, November 13, 2018 at 3:30 pm
    Thank you KB. Another excellent piece of analysis.

    One point though is that the Government are fast running out of time because there are only a couple of weeks of Parliament till the Christmas recess which cuts out a number of weeks that the Libs might have had to mount a recovery because Australia is on holidays.

    My guess is that Australians having time to reflect on the performance of this government may give a huge thumbs down. So, their position in 2019 may be even worse than it is now.

    Maybe…maybe not. I tend to think it works the other way around. Voters will tune out from political affairs almost completely and give themselves to the pleasures of summer. If they start to feel better about themselves, they will likely feel better about the Government too and the Lib numbers may improve a bit over the break.

    The shock for the Libs will come when it’s back to business for families and workers; in February/March, when the Christmas and holiday bills come in, when kids have to be fitted out for school, when voters begin to focus on election prospects and the real choices before them. Then intentions will coalesce…and it will be all too late for the Liberals to change anything.

  21. Zoidlord@3:15pm
    Atlast somebody in NSW Greens shown some guts. How long is Di Natalie is going to hide people who allegedly committed sexual harassment?
    Is Buckingham going to sue his colleague as he threatened?

  22. Plenty of apathetic adults in society.If voting wasnt compulsory here, 25% wouldnt bother turning up to vote

    You’d be battling to get 25% to turn up if it wasn’t compulsory.

  23. Briefly at 3.30

    As I said earlier today, the only thing that counts in the current political environment is that the Coalition is a disunited conflicted rabble and Labor is the exact opposite.

    All the other stuff about unions and boats and Muslim terrorists and the rest only go to keeping the bodies already showing up as still supporting the Coalition on a 2PP basis. These are people who could not bring themselves to support a Labor government no matter how bad their side is, so they look for any justification to keep them in their political comfort zone.

    The people who will decide the next election – those who do not feel committed to any party or side of politics for tribal reasons – are only interested in who will run the country better after the next election. It is too close to the next election for them to accept there is any reasonable possibility that the current disunited and incoherent rabble self-obsessing over obscure policy arguments that poses as our government will be any different after the election.

    In my view, Labor has virtually got it in the bag by default (barring any event so extraordinary that it has never happened before). Shorten and his team are taking up with gusto the real challenge – which is to put out serious policies that will reverse some of the huge damage done by these clowns over the last five years and return this nation to a forward direction. He is not being a small target, despite the contrary pontifications of the Canberra circle jerk press gallery. However, he is not putting his head above the parapet while bullets are flying about and thus denying them a kill. Which makes them very, very sad.

  24. steve davis@3:38pm
    Would you believe that in the last Tuesday’s so called historical US mid-term elections, only about 48.5 % people bothered to vote.

  25. As Yabba seems to regard the publishing of his ill-will towards Jones as having the potential to be heard somehow by Jones or at least those who would be more generously disposed towards him than Yabba (possibly everyone) then his publication DOES cause harm beyond the wish itself to Jones or others.

    Yabba has deficits of emotional intelligence and emotional self-regulation.

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