Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

A world of hurt for the Coalition from Newspoll, with voting intention deep into crisis territory and Scott Morrison’s standing continuing to decline.

The Australian reports this fortnight’s Newspoll is even worse for the Coalition than last time, with the Labor lead now at 55-45. Labor now holds a five point lead on the primary vote, being up one to 40% with the Coalition down one to 35%, while the Greens and One Nation are steady on 9% and 6% respectively. Despite/because of last week’s charm offensive in Queensland, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings continue to deteriorate, being down two on approval to 39% and up three on disapproval to 47%. His lead as preferred prime minister has also narrowed, from 43-35 to 42-36. Bill Shorten is down two on approval to 35% and steady on disapproval at 50%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1802.

Also out today are the federal voting intention numbers from the YouGov Galaxy poll of Queensland, for which state voting intention numbers were provided yesterday. This has the two parties level on two-party preferred in the state, which is unchanged on the last such poll at the tail end of the Malcolm Turnbull era. The Coalition is up a point on the primary vote to 38%, with Labor steady on 34%, One Nation down one to 9% and the Greens steady on 9% (also included as a response option is Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, scoring all of 1%). The poll also finds 29% saying they would be more likely to vote Coalition now Scott Morrison is Prime Minister, with 25% opting for less likely and 42% for no difference. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 839. The Courier-Mail’s report on the poll can be found here, though I wouldn’t bother if I were you.

UPDATE: The Australian also has Newspoll results on becoming a republic, which records a dramatic ten point drop in support since April, from 50% to 40%, with “strongly in favour” down from 25% to 15%. Opposition is up from 41% to 48%, although strong opposition is steady at 22%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,343 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

Comments Page 19 of 27
1 … 18 19 20 … 27

  1. The earliest anecdotal impression of decline was through what is sometimes termed the windscreen phenomenon (or windshield if you live in the US): time was, especially in the summer, when any long automobile journey would result in a car windscreen that was insect-spattered. But then, not so much. Two years ago I wrote a book focusing on this curious happening, but I gave it a different name: I called it the moth snowstorm, referring to the moths which on summer nights in my childhood might cluster in such numbers that they would pack a speeding car’s headlight beams like snowflakes in a blizzard.

    But the point about the moth snowstorm was this: it had gone. I personally realised it had disappeared, and began writing about it as a journalist, in the year 2000; but it became obvious from talking to people who had also observed it that its disappearance dated further back, probably to about the 1970s and 1980s. And the fact that an entire large-scale phenomenon such as this had simply ceased to exist pointed inescapably to one grim conclusion: though unnoticed by the world at large, a whole giant ecosystem was collapsing. The insect world was falling apart.

    Today we know beyond doubt, and with rather than just anecdote, that this is true, and the question immediately arises: what caused it?

    It seems indisputable: it is us. It is human activity – more specifically, three generations of industrialised farming with a vast tide of poisons pouring over the land year after year after year, since the end of the second world war. This is the true price of pesticide-based agriculture, which society has for so long blithely accepted.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/oct/21/insects-giant-ecosystem-collapsing-human-activity-catastrophe?CMP=share_btn_tw

  4. meher baba

    I found that remark strange, too. Even if Guthrie wins a case against the ABC, how can she imagine that the Board will welcome her return? Perhaps she really does live in an alternate universe!!

  5. lizzie says:
    Tuesday, November 13, 2018 at 12:13 pm
    Michael

    I hope your experience was, overall, a happy one.
    —————————————

    It certainly was! With three boys of our own now, I often find myself emulating my parents even before I realise I’m doing so!

  6. The Age
    ‏Verified account @theage
    3m3 minutes ago

    The main index of the nation’s biggest listed companies is down by $29.4 billion – and still dropping, as negative leads from overseas and domestic weakness combine to push prices down. Follow our live coverage here …

  7. Bushfire Bill @ #887 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 12:23 pm

    The levels of hatred here – a kind of reverse virtue signalling – are pretty disappointing.

    You sound EXACTLY the same as the loony Nazis who haunt pro-Trump sites, right wing shithouses here, and One Nation fanboy cliques who not only want their political enemies silenced, they want them dead.

    What’s the difference between wishing someone you dislike a long, agonizing death from cancer, or wishing them dead by other means… beheading, truck bombs, stabbed in the street by a lunatic, tortured to death in a CIA rendition cell. What’s the difference between that and wishing for the death penalty so that political opponents can be put up against a wall and summarily shot?

    It’s not a matter of believing in voodoo, as one particularly idiotic poster up thread suggested. It’s a matter of the promotion and rationalization this kind of hate speech leading to more tribalization, more malignancy in public discourse, and eventually, inevitably one day to death and torture fantasies becoming real… and maybe, just perhaps, not in your personal favour, or that of your family, or friends.

    I’m very surprised William even allows this kind of small dick tough guy talk to stay here, because if not today, then tomorrow, someone with an axe to grind is going to come along, point to the hate speech above and write off everything William’s been working for over the years – the graphs, lists, posts, time, energy and built up knowledge – as just another opportunity for a bunch of pimply faced, wannabee, keyboard warriors huddled in their mummy’s basement talking hate.

    Just quit it. We all know how tough you all are.

    Good comment and needed to be said.

  9. Good to see at least a couple of Greens politicians stepping up about Buckingham and learning something from the way the ALP dealt with Foley. One of myriad lessons they could learn from Labor.

  10. Guytaur

    Trump is no doubt furious.
    He was rebuked in Paris.
    The midterms did not go his way.
    He sacked Sessions but it hasn’t stopped Mueller.
    He is increasingly becoming isolated and cornered
    No doubt he is busy planning his next line of attack to keep the wolves at bay.

  11. @mckinnon_a tweets

    Greens MP @jennyleong has called for @greensjeremy to resign from Parliament and the Greens due to his “act of sexual violence” against former Greens employee Ella Buckland

    “I have known Jeremy Buckingham for close to two decades … I used to consider him a friend. Jeremy’s behaviour has had a real and lasting consequence on individual women … There have been active volunteers who have resigned or stepped aside as a result of Jeremy’s behaviour.”

    Long says Buckingham behaved “in an aggressive manner” towards her twice in recent months, once in Parliament.

    Leong’s statement was supported by federal Greens MP @MehreenFaruqi. They informed Greens colleagues, including Buckingham, of Leong’s speech this morning.

  13. Roman Quaedvlieg
    ‏ 4h4 hours ago

    Anyone who works in CT (counter terrorism?) knows that there is already a high level of co-operation; that the leaders don’t know every little thing that’s going on; they don’t necessarily have influence over radicals; & that the ‘Muslim Community’ is not a self-contained, homogenous enclave.

    ‘Unacceptable’: Peter Dutton demands more co-operation from Muslim leaders on terrorism #auspol

  14. BB You are 100% correct. I retract everything that I have ever posted. I will try, from now on, to never virtue signal like you. That would, after all, be pompous, and it follows that that would not be virtuous. There is no way I could ever get anywhere near your profound excellence at that essential skill of a true keyboard warrior. I admire your perfection, your utter certainty that your every utterance is perfect, and your admirable, perfect persistance in working to make the world a better place, by working tirelessly to silence those who do not share your utter perfectitude.

    After taking your perfectly virtuous advice, I now hope that Jones gets back on air, and restarts his tirade directed at Gillian Triggs, and vilifying all Muslims. Then he can work at sending Wong back to where she came from, and delivering Plibersek into a chaffbag. No hate, though, that wouldn’t be nice, or virtuous.

  17. I want Alan Jones to regain his health quickly and then end his career in tatters from outcomes resulting from emanations from his own beak!

  20. Afternoon all.

    There is always a photo

    This is presidents JFK and De Gaulle, standing in the pouring rain, purposely without umbrellas, at a WW1 commemoration in 1961.

  22. Lizzie.

    In south suburban Perth we are in the midst of an infestation of smallish white moths. in plague proportions. Flies, which have been much less of a problem in recent years, are now in abundance once more.
    Mosquitos are an ever-present problem where ever there is water.

    At least the birds are happy, and there are a lot more of them around than there used to be.

  24. lizzie: “I found that remark strange, too. Even if Guthrie wins a case against the ABC, how can she imagine that the Board will welcome her return? Perhaps she really does live in an alternate universe!!”

    A universe in which she also thought it reasonable to deny that “explore external career development opportunities” was a synonym for showing an employee the door.

    Milne was a rather unappealing character, but he did come across as having had some sort of a clue. As for Guthrie? …I’d prefer not to comment.

  26. @MikeDelMoro tweets

    Per the @VictoryFund, Sinema’s win brings the total number of LGBTQ winners for Congress so far to 8, meaning the new Congress will have the most openly-LGBTQ members in its history come January.

  27. I have noticed that Yabba is very highly strung. A certain tautness, very much unlike my affable self, a loveable chap. I sense a level of violence in Yabba’s soul that goes beyond anything else I have seen on here. Perhaps it comes about due to working with ancient computers all the time. He sees people as machines rather than individuals. The Alan Jones machine is faulty, destroy it. Where I think most people see Alan Jones as just doing his schtick, he’s found a way to make some good money, and while I hope he retires, we all know that another Sydney shock jock will just replace him. Hate the game, not the player.

  28. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/12/us/politics/fact-check-trump-california-fire-tweet.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

    “In fact, the wooded land that abuts Paradise, Calif., the community so badly damaged by the Camp Fire, underwent the kind of post-fire logging that Mr. Trump’s tweet and Mr. Zinke’s article suggested. That was just under a decade ago, but the city is now in ashes.”

    Trump fact checked…again. The man is an idiot. 🙁

  31. lizzie – and the counter the gun lobby’s claim that without guns people will just use other weapons see:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate#By_country

    the US sits with many impoverished and less lawful nations. The rest of the OECD has murder rates – not just gun-related murders – that are 10-20% of the US. Why the LNP seem to think the US social model is the ideal to strive for is beyond me. Australia’s murder rate is unacceptably high compared to other OECD nations.

  32. mb
    “Milne was a rather unappealing character, but he did come across as having had some sort of a clue. As for Guthrie? …I’d prefer not to comment.”

    That was my nutshell as well. Both were highly unedifying characters, in their own ways. I’m glad they were both shown the door.

  33. Good to see Labor is on to this.

    @ALeighMP tweets

    Thanks to Justin and the team at Mansfield Motors, who showed Bonner candidate @JoBriskey and me around the workshop. Labor’s “Your Car, Your Choice” policy will ensure independent mechanics like Justin get the data they need to fix modern cars http://www.andrewleigh.com/labor_clears_the_road_for_mechanics_in_brisbane_media_release #auspol https://twitter.com/ALeighMP/status/1062166716552114176/photo/1

  34. sustainable future says: Tuesday, November 13, 2018 at 1:17 pm

    lizzie – and the counter the gun lobby’s claim that without guns people will just use other weapons see:

    ******************************************************************

    Black security guard stops shooter in a bar — then gets gunned down by cop who mistook him for criminal

    A black security guard this weekend prevented a potential mass shooting at the bar where he worked — and was then gunned down by an Illinois police officer who mistook him for a criminal.

    WGN TV reports that 26-year-old armed security guard Jemel Roberson was working at Manny’s Blue Room Bar in Robbins, Illinois on Sunday morning when he was attacked by a gun-wielding man whom witnesses say had been kicked out of the bar earlier in the evening.

    Roberson returned fire on the man and managed to subdue him and pin him to the ground.

    However, when a Midlothian, Illinois police officer showed up on the scene, he opened fire and killed Roberson because he thought Roberson was the true assailant.

    “Everybody was screaming out, ‘he was a security guard,’ and they basically saw a black man with a gun and killed him,” witness Adam Harris tells WGN TV.

    Pastor Patricia Hill of Chicago’s Purposed Church tells WGN TV that she’s horrified to see another young black man fatally shot by police despite the fact that he had risked his own life to prevent a potential mass shooting.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/11/black-security-guard-stops-shooter-bar-gets-gunned-cop-mistook-criminal/

  38. The Guardian:

    Labor won’t be supporting the motion to suspend standing orders to bring on the Greens schools anti-discrimination bill (the one which aims to stop religious schools from discriminating against staff, as well as teachers).

    So the motion has no chance of getting up.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2018/nov/13/politics-live-foodbank-abc-senate-coalition-labor?page=with:block-5bea259be4b016737f1f39ff#block-5bea259be4b016737f1f39ff

  39. Jones is a stereotypical bully. He finally gets disciplined by his bosses and goes on sick leave in a huff. hopefully his radio station will realise they don’t need him.

  41. The Guardian:

    The federal Greens senator Mehreen Faruqi and the New South Wales Greens MP Jenny Leong have released a statement calling for the NSW Greens MLC Jeremy Buckingham to stand aside and not contest the next election.

    “We have made this decision as independent women and we have not taken it lightly,” the statement says.

    Good to finally see.

  44. phoenix

    One of the worst cases I have heard of lately is the middle-class, working, african-american dad who picked up an unpackaged toy air rifle for his kid at some aldi-style bargain basement store and got shot by cops before he got to the checkout because someone reported a black man with a gun and they fired as they yelled for him to drop the ‘weapon’. no charges laid. not included in the murder stats (in fact if they added police shootings to the figures it would go up substantially)

  45. Pegasus @ #933 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 1:40 pm

    The Guardian:

    Labor won’t be supporting the motion to suspend standing orders to bring on the Greens schools anti-discrimination bill (the one which aims to stop religious schools from discriminating against staff, as well as teachers).

    So the motion has no chance of getting up.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2018/nov/13/politics-live-foodbank-abc-senate-coalition-labor?page=with:block-5bea259be4b016737f1f39ff#block-5bea259be4b016737f1f39ff

    Lib-Lab are on a unity ticket in protecting certain outdated religious beliefs.

  46. What Milne and Guthrie take attention from is the competence of the Board – and the interference of this dysfunctional government

    They all need to be replaced

  49. I do not wish death on anyone, but there are some whose passing I will not regret. I might even reach for the champagne.

    It will not be from hatred but sheer relief.

  50. Martin Luther King Jr:

    Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that.

Comments Page 19 of 27
1 … 18 19 20 … 27

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *