Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

A world of hurt for the Coalition from Newspoll, with voting intention deep into crisis territory and Scott Morrison’s standing continuing to decline.

The Australian reports this fortnight’s Newspoll is even worse for the Coalition than last time, with the Labor lead now at 55-45. Labor now holds a five point lead on the primary vote, being up one to 40% with the Coalition down one to 35%, while the Greens and One Nation are steady on 9% and 6% respectively. Despite/because of last week’s charm offensive in Queensland, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings continue to deteriorate, being down two on approval to 39% and up three on disapproval to 47%. His lead as preferred prime minister has also narrowed, from 43-35 to 42-36. Bill Shorten is down two on approval to 35% and steady on disapproval at 50%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1802.

Also out today are the federal voting intention numbers from the YouGov Galaxy poll of Queensland, for which state voting intention numbers were provided yesterday. This has the two parties level on two-party preferred in the state, which is unchanged on the last such poll at the tail end of the Malcolm Turnbull era. The Coalition is up a point on the primary vote to 38%, with Labor steady on 34%, One Nation down one to 9% and the Greens steady on 9% (also included as a response option is Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, scoring all of 1%). The poll also finds 29% saying they would be more likely to vote Coalition now Scott Morrison is Prime Minister, with 25% opting for less likely and 42% for no difference. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 839. The Courier-Mail’s report on the poll can be found here, though I wouldn’t bother if I were you.

UPDATE: The Australian also has Newspoll results on becoming a republic, which records a dramatic ten point drop in support since April, from 50% to 40%, with “strongly in favour” down from 25% to 15%. Opposition is up from 41% to 48%, although strong opposition is steady at 22%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,343 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

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  1. BB I believe that Jones is an evil prick, and that the world would be a much better place without him. Murdoch and Pell too.

    Jones has deliberately spread false information about numerous things, most importantly, global warming. This is way beyond politics.

    I believe that he should feel a tiny proportion of the pain he has inflicted on so many over many years, by means of his deliberate lying and distortion. He is a foul example of how low a human can go.

  2. Cricket’s sluggish start on Fox should be a reminder to other codes that the pay TV provider is a luxury for many Australians, not an essential service. The late Spring of cricket has arrived with a gentle single behind square leg rather than blistering heave into the top tier.

    The timing of cricket’s closeting behind a paywall could scarcely be worse and the fanfare of the broadcast deal, announced in April, now seems like the episode of Peaky Blinders where the family gathered for one final drink before they were collected by the constabulary.

    As it stands, the cheapest Foxtel package with sport costs $58 per month. That’s chickenfeed to a decent proportion of the population but for many, it’s simply another cost that can be cut from a family budget under increasing duress. Only about one-third of Australians subscribe and in the September quarter, those numbers fell.

    https://www.smh.com.au/sport/cricket/slow-burn-as-reality-of-broadcast-deal-dawns-on-cricket-fans-20181112-p50fie.html

  3. The Uni funding ‘debate’ is is a deliberate act of trolling by our government.

    https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/federal/we-are-under-assault-major-universities-go-to-war-with-morrison-government-over-research-cuts-20181112-p50fih.html

    Vice-chancellors are furious about a $134 million raid on research funding to pay for student places at regional universities – as well as other Coalition measures in the works including a free speech blitz, a “national interest test” for research grants and a new tax on enrolments.

    Reading the comments is discouraging. People are upset with each other. Attention diverted. Energy diverted. Job done.

  4. Late Riser

    The kicker in the story about the triplets is that they were deliberately separated and sent to three homes at different socio-economic levels, in what amounted to a laboratory experiment.

  5. Actually I hope Alan Jones chooses to retire and slip quietly into obscurity. No chaff bags. He is 77, maybe it’s time to slow down.

    Don’t want him to roll down the curtain and join the choir invisible too soon, the hagiographies would be nauseating. I suppose the same goes for Rupert.

    Not that it will make much difference. Their places will be taken by someone just as obnoxious but younger and more energetic.

  6. lizzie

    Its worse than that.

    For the same amount of money you can save up and go to the ground.

    The money you save by having Netflix Cricket Australia etc instead.

    Thats if you are a real sports fan. Otherwise you just save the money and find other things to talk about around the water cooler at work.

  7. as i mentioned earlier, something more cray cray is up with Trump. Rain is a piss poor excuse for him missing out on what are normal duties of a President.

  8. @kylegriffin1 tweets

    Martha McSally says in a new video that she just called and conceded to Kirsten Sinema. https://twitter.com/MarthaMcSally/status/1062144676822577152

    @MarthaMcSally tweets

    Congrats to @kyrstensinema. I wish her success. I’m grateful to all those who supported me in this journey. I’m inspired by Arizonans’ spirit and our state’s best days are ahead of us. https://twitter.com/MarthaMcSally/status/1062144676822577152/video/1

  9. Yabba, you’re wrong.

    Go and nurse someone who’s dying of cancer. Carry their naked 30 kilo body to the toilet while they cry like a baby in pain and shit themselves simultaneously in your arms, begging you to drown them, and then come back and tell me you’d wish that on anyone at all.

    Grow up. You don’t really need to prove to anyone how big a hater you are.

  10. Bushfire Bill @ #836 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 11:30 am

    Wishing Alan Jones cancer, excruciating pain and so on is highly unbecoming and outright rotten behaviour.

    Those on the Left who bring down these curses on political opponents sound just as deranged and malignant as the most rabid and disgusting Pickering followers, and similar Right wing fascist jerkoffs.

    Garbage.

    Unless you think that voodoo has any effect.
    Do you?

    Do you seriously think that thoughts and prayers do anything?
    Do you?

    Curses do nothing either.

    I wish laryngitis upon him, and may his chooks turn into emus and kick his dunny down.

    Won’t do any good (or bad). He will get better, or not. My wishes or yours will have nothing to do with it.

  11. Victoria @ #856 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 11:49 am

    as i mentioned earlier, something more cray cray is up with Trump. Rain is a piss poor excuse for him missing out on what are normal duties of a President.

    Given Trump’s well-documented narcissism, I don’t think you have to look beyond C@tmomma’s earlier explanation …

    Why don’t people just say that he’s afraid that the rain will deflate his fairy floss hair do and he’ll look ridiculous!?!

  12. Late Riser says:
    Tuesday, November 13, 2018 at 11:47 am
    The Uni funding ‘debate’ is is a deliberate act of trolling by our government.

    LR…quite right. LNP politics has become full-time trolling. It’s absolutely no wonder that voters have ceased listening to them. Voters are not dummies but the LNP certainly treat us as if we are.

  13. Because I’ve been fortunate, Foxtel isn’t a matter of money for me, it’s about not giving money to two organisations I despise – Murdoch and Telstra. I’ll gladly give up the cricket- a game I love – to avoid wounding my conscience. Same with the AFL.

    In any case, it’s only the shitty part of the game that’s on Murdelstra, tests are still on FTA.

  14. lizzie @ #819 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 10:48 am

    Late Riser

    The kicker in the story about the triplets is that they were deliberately separated and sent to three homes at different socio-economic levels, in what amounted to a laboratory experiment.

    Yes. Head shaking. By a Jewish professor in collaboration with a Jewish adoption agency. (I was really taken by that image of three optimistic young men.)

  15. Steve777 @ #854 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 11:48 am

    Actually I hope Alan Jones chooses to retire and slip quietly into obscurity. No chaff bags. He is 77, maybe it’s time to slow down.

    Don’t want him to roll down the curtain and join the choir invisible too soon, the hagiographies would be nauseating. I suppose the same goes for Rupert.

    Not that it will make much difference. Their places will be taken by someone just as obnoxious but younger and more energetic.

    May Jones continue to live until he is forgotten. Is that a curse or a blessing? Dunno.

    And it won’t make a blind bit of difference in any case.

  16. Cricket was commoditised long ago. Murdoch has bought it to try to lower his input costs, maximise his viewer-share, exclude competitors and support subscription income. It’s hard to know who’s using whom in this but one thing is certain – cricket will be the loser.

    Sport has become optical pollution. I would rather wander down to the local oval and watch kids play under the sun than sit on my backside and watch pay-cricket on endless repeat.

  17. I hope Alan Jones enjoys a swift an complete recovery from his medical condition – and then comes to the realisation that life is too short, and decides to leave our airwaves for good and live out the rest of his life in quiet retirement.

  18. don

    umbrellas are pretty effective in stopping rain getting on hair.
    imagine any other President not doing the obligatory visit to Arlington Cemetery on Veterans Day.

    Nah. something is going on. dont know what exactly. but it wont be good

  19. Late Riser says: Tuesday, November 13, 2018 at 11:56 am

    The kicker in the story about the triplets is that they were deliberately separated and sent to three homes at different socio-economic levels, in what amounted to a laboratory experiment.

    Yes. Head shaking. By a Jewish professor in collaboration with a Jewish adoption agency. (I was really taken by that image of three optimistic young men.)

    ********************************************************

    Has an ominous reminisce Mengele/The Boys From Brazil tone ……

  20. lizzie says:
    Tuesday, November 13, 2018 at 12:01 pm
    Late Riser

    Because I had three adopted children I have always been fascinated by all discussions on the nature/nurture theme.
    ————————————-

    Being an adoptee, so have I.

  21. Guytaur

    The LNP are on the wrong side of those issues. This is then reflected in the polling. This is then reflected in elections

    ___________________________________

    When I was much younger I used to think that most people cared as much about political and social issues as I did.

    Over years of watching what impacted and what didn’t in elections, it has become clear to me that the vast bulk of voters don’t think much about policies and that they either vote one way or the other out of habit/tribal loyalty/comfort (now reducing somewhat) or on the basis of ‘intuition’.

    What most voters really want is a stable government that they can trust to make considered decisions and manage well without bothering the punters.

    The one theme that I have seen that always has a huge impact on voters is the whether the party in power or seeking power appears focussed on governing for Australians or playing internal power games. Apart from the last election, I have never seen a united party lose to a disunited one, whatever the political issues of the day. And even the last election went damn close. Under anyone other than Turnbull, still with that public and journalist regard, fighting a Labor party that has spectacularly imploded less than 3 years earlier, the Government would have lost.

    Objectively, the current government is the most disunited rabble I have seen in government in my lifetime. I’m sure the public see it the same way. It doesn’t matter what the public think of Bill Shorten as a potential PM, the people whose votes will determine the next government will reject a disorganised, incoherent rabble.

    I cannot foresee a circumstance in which Labor loses the next election. There may be something unforeseeable (more unforeseeable than a new influx of boats) but nothing foreseeable. Labor can advertise its unity of leadership since 2013 and contrast it with the government’s disunity. It’s already doing that and will drive that home at the next election. It can only get worse for the Government.

  22. Lizzie

    The further write downs on the Murdoch Balance Sheet are instructive (mind you they afford a tax holiday aka Qantas and others)

    In regards Banking the movement away from proprietor equity, servicing ability, intent and a second way out being the realisation of security to a “grow the book regardless” culture was the problem

    However, the bank lends because someone approaches asking to borrow or a bank approaches saying “bank with us”

    The significant bulk of lending is prudent lending – because of the conservatism of the client when it comes to debt levels

    The problem is at the margins

    The old story was that everyone is rich enough to do something

    The secret is not to over extend

    But, equally, not to under achieve

    Successful people adhere to that principle

    And they manage their cash to cash cycle (which, for individuals, is pay day to pay day and living within your means)

    Hence retail and media then house prices are the indicators of stress

    Foxtel is media

    Media is under duress

  23. Trump is either sulking or he’s ill…dismal form in any case. Dignification is not about the dignifier, it is about the people, the values and the memories that are to be dignified. He obviously doesn’t like that bit. Public solemnity is something he does not understand.

  24. BB Don’t try to project your feelings on me. If Jones was in the condition you describe I would put him out for the crows to eat. Its called schadenfreude.

    I am over 70 years old, and have cared for my own father and mother in their declining years. My family has had the usual range of successes and disasters, good fortune and bad luck, and downright tragedies. I don’t try to pretend, like many on here, that I have deeply felt sympathies for people that I don’t know, and who are not close to me. To me, that way lies madness. I do my best, through volunteering, providing peer group support to sufferers from mental illness who have been released from hospital via the local Health Department branch, and providing computer instruction four hours a week to oldies at our local ‘seniors’ centre, as well as my paid consulting work. I am active in the labor party.

    Over the years, though, I have seen and heard enough of Alan Jones to know exactly what my feelings about him are. Like Murdoch and Pell, I would happily see him rot. I really don’t give a flying fuck whether you approve or not.

  25. ACTU secretary Sally McManus has accused the ABC of refusing to let her on the premises of the public broadcaster for a talk to union members on Wednesday.

    In an astonishing tweet, McManus said the ABC was “the first employer in the country to say ‘no’ to me being allowed on their premises to talk to their employees” since she was elected in March last year.

    The leader of Australia’s union peak body said she had visited “many, many workplaces across the country – maybe one a week” in her time in the role, including “factories, building sites, offices, casinos, schools, hospitals, yards and workshops”.

    “In every case, the employer has been happy to have me visit,” Ms McManus said.


    Ms McManus said she intended to show up for the event, scheduled for lunchtime on Wednesday, regardless of whether permission is granted.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/abc-refused-entry-to-union-boss-sally-mcmanus-20181113-p50fom.html

  26. TPOF

    I agree disunity is death. However there is a reason for that disunity. Thats the denial of what the polling tells us people want.

    All those Essential polls on issues are very clear.

    Basically voters are for fair. As I said when the mask falls off they vote against.

    Thats why Abbott succeeded with his power prices campaign. He based it on Labor being unfair to people. Then he quickly lost support when his first budget let the mask slip.
    That was before the disunity started.

  27. This is Bill Shorten quoted in the Guardian blog:

    “Well, first of all, what happened on Friday was just an evil tragedy. As my colleague said earlier on television, Sisto, the man who got killed, was committing an act of kindness and was met with an act of evil.

    I understand people are upset. My own kids catch the tram through the city. We’ve all… I’ve lived in Melbourne for most of my life.

    We’ve all walked past that old Commonwealth Bank building there. So it is shocking. Would like to think that what we saw on Friday doesn’t happen in Australia, but it does.

    Now, I can understand why people want to lash out, want to blame different groups or want to blame politicians or want to blame Mr Morrison.

    I actually think we’ve got to take a step back. Someone died.Two people died. And the coroner will have an investigation. That’s a pretty good process. In terms of the debate about the Muslim community, there are a few radicalised troublemakers, no question and pretending that isn’t the case doesn’t make it go away.

    But by the same token absolutely the vast bulk of Muslim Australians, the vast, vast bulk, love their country and I don’t want to tag a whole group of Australians just by the actions of a very few.

    I get that some people want to blame the government and authorities, I think the authorities are trying to do the best they can. We need calmness and coolness.

    Our Australian way of life tolerates a range of views as long as you adhere to the laws. The police are doing a great job and I want to congratulate them again.

    As a parent whose kids walk up and down Bourke Street and whose wife has shopped there and walked up and down there, I am pleased that VicPol were so responsive so quickly and I think I speak for a lot of people.

    To the family of the deceased and to Sisto and the other two people who were wounded, this is shocking and nothing can make sense of that, but I just say to people I understand anyone wants to perhaps lash out.

    It’s a disturbing event. I get that but I think now is the time to work out what can we all do better. It’s not about one group or one politician.

    What can we all do better to keep Australians safe?””

    ______________________________________

    Compare that with the intemperate demands and blaming of others indulged in by Morrison and Dutton.

    On the basis of that speech alone Bill Shorten stands head, shoulders and torso above our current mob in terms of what a leader should be.

  28. autocrat

    Ditto

    And once people’s habits change they are very difficult to change back

    The reality becomes the new norm

    Hence investment in research and development and acquisitions and mergers

    It is all about the future

    The past just teaches us some lessons

  29. The levels of hatred here – a kind of reverse virtue signalling – are pretty disappointing.

    You sound EXACTLY the same as the loony Nazis who haunt pro-Trump sites, right wing shithouses here, and One Nation fanboy cliques who not only want their political enemies silenced, they want them dead.

    What’s the difference between wishing someone you dislike a long, agonizing death from cancer, or wishing them dead by other means… beheading, truck bombs, stabbed in the street by a lunatic, tortured to death in a CIA rendition cell. What’s the difference between that and wishing for the death penalty so that political opponents can be put up against a wall and summarily shot?

    It’s not a matter of believing in voodoo, as one particularly idiotic poster up thread suggested. It’s a matter of the promotion and rationalization this kind of hate speech leading to more tribalization, more malignancy in public discourse, and eventually, inevitably one day to death and torture fantasies becoming real… and maybe, just perhaps, not in your personal favour, or that of your family, or friends.

    I’m very surprised William even allows this kind of small dick tough guy talk to stay here, because if not today, then tomorrow, someone with an axe to grind is going to come along, point to the hate speech above and write off everything William’s been working for over the years – the graphs, lists, posts, time, energy and built up knowledge – as just another opportunity for a bunch of pimply faced, wannabee, keyboard warriors huddled in their mummy’s basement talking hate.

    Just quit it. We all know how tough you all are.

  30. Drop into pollbludger on occasion over the years and the conversation lately is notably off the boil. Wishing someone cancer and opiate addiction? Bail.

  31. Public solemnity is something he does not understand.

    Still not buying it. His base lap this sort of event up (the Arlington one – not the Paris one). He platforms on the US military and Vets.

    There must be something more personal going on. Ill health or substantial political threat. Or he is about to fire Mueller. Or bomb Iran.

  32. Luke

    You obviously have not seen some posts Yabba has made in the past.

    There is no increased tribalism. Its one or two people wising ill.

    Most like me wish him off the airwaves through commercial decisions that Jones is costing more than he is worth.

  33. Simon Katich

    Trump was perfectly fine in Paris. especially when exchanging greetings with Putin. With everyone else not so much.

    Something is up.

  34. “Wishing someone cancer and opiate addiction?”

    I understand that Jones is worth despising for what he says and does, but wishing that on him is OT, and, as bad as anything he has come out with from time to time.

    His mates are going to lose the next election, and the influence of the RWNutjobbies like him will recede. Let that be pain enough for the prick.

  35. Simon² Katich® says: Tuesday, November 13, 2018 at 12:28 pm

    Public solemnity is something he does not understand.

    Still not buying it. His base lap this sort of event up (the Arlington one – not the Paris one). He platforms on the US military and Vets.

    There must be something more personal going on. Ill health or substantial political threat. Or he is about to fire Mueller. Or bomb Iran.

    *********************************************************

    Like Goering when he looked up and saw the first Mustang over Berlin – he knew the gig was up – the war is lost

    For Donny, the walls are surely but slowly closing in on him and his whole Crime family – losing the House means he is a pretty lame duck President and its only a matter of time for all his dirty little financial dealings over the years before he became President to become a daily TV item in the US …….

  36. Victoria

    If nothing else we know what is up.

    The Democrats are not backing down. They will use the House to investigate.

    So even if Trump stops Mueller that does nothing to stop everything else. Thats whats up.
    There is doubt for him he can even stop Mueller. 🙂

  37. Briefly says : “Sport has become optical pollution. I would rather wander down to the local oval and watch kids play under the sun than sit on my backside and watch pay-cricket on endless repeat.”

    Spot on, in my opinion. Same goes for many of the football codes, including rugby league. I’d much prefer to ride my bike to Valleys RL ground and watch the under 18’s play. So much more entertaining.

    I used to love cricket. Still do, I suppose; but Channel 9 and now Fox are a distinct turn off for me.

    Twenty20 is an abomination.

    Give me a day of Derek Underwood bowling to Ian Chappell any day.

  38. lizzie, way back: “Jonathan Green: Best that can be said after that utterly extraordinary @4corners is thank goodness they’ve both gone.”

    Well yes, except that Guthrie doesn’t necessarily consider that she’s gone. According to 4 Corners, Guthrie told them that she seriously believes that one possible outcome of the legal process she has instigated is that she might be reinstated. Extraordinary!

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