Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

A world of hurt for the Coalition from Newspoll, with voting intention deep into crisis territory and Scott Morrison’s standing continuing to decline.

The Australian reports this fortnight’s Newspoll is even worse for the Coalition than last time, with the Labor lead now at 55-45. Labor now holds a five point lead on the primary vote, being up one to 40% with the Coalition down one to 35%, while the Greens and One Nation are steady on 9% and 6% respectively. Despite/because of last week’s charm offensive in Queensland, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings continue to deteriorate, being down two on approval to 39% and up three on disapproval to 47%. His lead as preferred prime minister has also narrowed, from 43-35 to 42-36. Bill Shorten is down two on approval to 35% and steady on disapproval at 50%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1802.

Also out today are the federal voting intention numbers from the YouGov Galaxy poll of Queensland, for which state voting intention numbers were provided yesterday. This has the two parties level on two-party preferred in the state, which is unchanged on the last such poll at the tail end of the Malcolm Turnbull era. The Coalition is up a point on the primary vote to 38%, with Labor steady on 34%, One Nation down one to 9% and the Greens steady on 9% (also included as a response option is Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, scoring all of 1%). The poll also finds 29% saying they would be more likely to vote Coalition now Scott Morrison is Prime Minister, with 25% opting for less likely and 42% for no difference. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 839. The Courier-Mail’s report on the poll can be found here, though I wouldn’t bother if I were you.

UPDATE: The Australian also has Newspoll results on becoming a republic, which records a dramatic ten point drop in support since April, from 50% to 40%, with “strongly in favour” down from 25% to 15%. Opposition is up from 41% to 48%, although strong opposition is steady at 22%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,343 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

  1. Plenty of apathetic adults in society.If voting wasnt compulsory here, 25% wouldnt bother turning up to vote

    You’d be battling to get 25% to turn up if it wasn’t compulsory.

    It’s obviously challenging to determine what would happen in an alternate set of circumstances, but in the current environment of compulsory voting, some 80% of voters participated in the non-compulsory SSM Survey

  2. I’m glad to see the Greens calling scummo a BS artist – I think this meme is getting traction, and the more people who call him out the better. the term “artist” is not correct however – “Bullshit spreader/sprayer” is probably better – unless cackhanded painting with your hands is art (I’m thinking of the old carpet adds with Pro Hart but with bullshit rather than food – “Ohhh, Mr Morrison! What a mess!!”

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/cormann-insists-libs-dealing-with-climate/news-story/420b495146a72003feea7a3eec288496

    Greens senator Larissa Waters says the federal government wouldn’t know a climate policy “if it hit them in the face”.

    “Young people can spot bullshit artists a mile off, so it’s no wonder that young people don’t buy the nonsense this prime minister is coming out with on climate,” she told reporters in Canberra on Tuesday.

  3. Ven

    “only about 48.5 % people bothered to vote.”

    ___________________________________

    Given that the system is designed to make it as difficult as possible for certain people to vote, I’m not sure that the words ‘bothered to’ are in any way fair. It’s a normal working day for some people and people often have to wait hours to vote (compared to Australia where a 30 minute wait is just a case of bad timing) and, in some states, are denied any opportunity to vote early regardless of personal circumstances. There are also voter suppression tactics that will scare people off too – such as having to come up with forms of identification that are far more likely to be held by people other than the very poor.

  4. Mavis Smith@3:46pm
    Still no cut and paste by Pegasus and Rex on what Di Natali tweeted about this issue. Hold on I am being unfair to them because Di Natali is silent on this issue like he is silent on Misogyny, Nepotism and shoplifter in his party.
    Is he silent because he is afraid that Buckingham will sue him for defamation? Or could there be another reason

  5. TPOF says: Tuesday, November 13, 2018 at 3:54 pm

    Ven

    “only about 48.5 % people bothered to vote.”

    ___________________________________

    Given that the system is designed to make it as difficult as possible for certain people to vote, I’m not sure that the words ‘bothered to’ are in any way fair. It’s a normal working day for some people and people often have to wait hours to vote (compared to Australia where a 30 minute wait is just a case of bad timing) and, in some states, are denied any opportunity to vote early regardless of personal circumstances. There are also voter suppression tactics that will scare people off too – such as having to come up with forms of identification that are far more likely to be held by people other than the very poor.

    ******************************************************************

    THIS makes me wonder about the fairness of the *processes* in US elections :

    Among the most eye-catching was a statistic showing Democrats led Republicans by more than 12 million votes in Senate races, and yet still suffered losses on the night and failed to win a majority of seats in the chamber.

    Democrats got millions more votes – so how did Republicans win the Senate?

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/nov/08/democrats-republicans-senate-majority-minority-rule

  6. I don’t think Clinton would be a bad choice for Democrats 2020. People forget that she smashed Trump on the popular vote. She probably wouldn’t lose any votes, so the Dems would just need to finesse their tactics vis which states to target. With authorities on the ball re. Russian hacking and presumably no 11th hour Comey-esque bombshell to derail the campaign, she’d probably be a shoe-in.

  7. No swinging voter cares about the climate change hoax, we should pull out of the Paris Accord just like President Trump correctly did, which will immediately reduce electricity bills for Australians.

  8. C@tmomma says:
    Tuesday, November 13, 2018 at 3:13 pm

    nath attempts to write a thoughtful post at 1.10pm.

    nath puts up a puerile meme about Bill Shorten at 1.59pm.

    I think it’s called ‘reverting to type’.
    __________________________
    Sometimes Mr Nath good.
    Sometimes Mr Nath bad.

  9. C@tmomma: “Beto O’Rourke for POTUS in 2020!”

    IMO he’s very much the sort of candidate who could win for the Dems in 2020. Whoever they pick, it needs to be someone who doesn’t hail from one of the traditional deep blue states, who hasn’t spent much time working in Washington DC in any capacity, and who – as opposed to the likes of Elizabeth Warren et al – might conceivably have some appeal to voters in the political centre.

    However, I suspect O’Rourke might be just a little too young and inexperienced. If he’d made into the Senate, he’d have had a much better chance for 2020 and even more so (if Trump were to win again) for 2024.

    Unfortunately, there aren’t too many other potential candidates emerging from the parts of the US that are not traditionally deep blue: the only ones of which I am aware are Amy Klobuchar and Steve Bullock.

    While she is firmly pro-choice and pro-LGBTIQ rights and is also pretty strong on gun control, Klobuchar is more conservative than most other potential Democrat candidates on a range of other issues. which would be helpful to her in the swing states, but which – combined with her hailing from a relative political backwater in Minnesota – would perhaps be problematic for her in terms of winning the primary battle and – if she were to win nomination – in getting out the African-American, youth and Hispanic vote on election day.

    Steve Bullock seems to be a little further to the left than Klobuchar, except on environmental and climate change issues (by dint of mining being a very important industry in Montana). But I would have thought environment and climate change issues would be important issues for the Dems to run on in 2020, so Bullock probably won’t do. (Also, Montana is clearly even more of a political backwater than Minnesota.)

    When I look at the likely front-runners in the Dem primaries – Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Kirsten Gillibrand, Cory Booker, Joe Biden (if he’s at all interested in running, which I rather doubt) – they all seem to me to occupy a political space broadly similar to that inhabited by Hillary. Which means, all things being equal, that they won’t have any more appeal in the swing states than Hillary did.

    Some of them, perhaps all, will campaign a bit better than Hillary, who didn’t have a natural aptitude for hustings work. But, apart from Biden, they are all a bit further to the left on a number of issues than Hillary (Gillibrand certainly didn’t start that way, but she’s there now). And that’s not going to help them in the swing states.

    To be honest, if the Dems can’t come up with somebody with more voter appeal outside of the party’s strongholds than the likes of Warren or Biden, they’d probably go better if they gave Sanders a run. He’s way to the left of all the other candidates, but he might be able to connect to middle America in a way that no other potential Dem candidate can hope to do.

  10. phoenixRed:

    [‘Democrats got millions more votes – so how did Republicans win the Senate?’]

    Two senators in each state irrespective of a states’ population, the same as ours. That’s why some refer to our political system as “Washminster” – grossly unfair but that’s the only way the self-governing colonies would agree to federate.

  11. Mavis Smith says:
    Tuesday, November 13, 2018 at 4:11 pm

    phoenixRed:

    [‘Democrats got millions more votes – so how did Republicans win the Senate?’]

    Two senators in each state irrespective of a states’ population, the same as ours. That’s why some refer to our political system as “Washminster” – grossly unfair but that’s the only way the self-governing colonies would agree to federate.
    ______________________________
    Sorry Mavis, it’s not Washminster it’s Westington.

  12. phoenix

    Democrats got millions more votes – so how did Republicans win the Senate?

    ____________________________________

    One reason is that there were a lot more Democrat senators or senate seats previously held by Democrats up for a vote. According to Wikipedia, of the 35 seats up for election, Democrats (and allies) had 26 and the Republicans only 9.

    Essentially, there were many more Senate elections in Democrat voting states and therefore a higher proportion of Democrats voting in the Senate election compared to the whole of nation vote. Further, the size of the electorate was irrelevant to the number of senators elected, so large states like California and New York had many millions of more votes cast than North Dakota, which actually flipped Republican.

    Indeed, it would be more instructive to compare the Senate vote across those States where there was an election with the House vote in those states that elected a Senator this time to get some idea of the degree of bias in the system.

  13. Laocoon@3:51pm
    Didn’t you you volunteer for Wentworth by-election?
    The final vote count for the by-election is about 79.1% with compulsory voting.

  14. Just listening to RN and David Marr is talking about Camp Howard, Port Hacking, an Anglican re-education retreat, where I spent quite few a weeks at in the ’50s. We were taught how bad homosexuality was and to avoid maturbation, were told to ties cotton reels on our back before going to bed. Little wonder that atheism’s on the rise.

  15. Kristina Keneally
    ‏Verified account @KKeneally
    1m1 minute ago

    Kristina Keneally Retweeted

    As you brought it up….
    “Lord, when did we see you hungry & feed you, or thirsty & give you something to drink?….The Lord will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did for one of the least of these brothers and sisters of mine, you did for me.’” Matthew 25:38, 40
    #Foodbank https://twitter.com/skynewsaust/status/1062137351894253568

  16. Pot, meet Kettle

    You are another of the regular posters who lacks basic emotional regulation.

    Nearly all of your posts take a derisive tone.

    You should consider why that is. What is it in your life that isn’t working well for you?

    Insulting people on a blog is not an emotionally intelligent response to whatever you are going through.

  17. Smug Morrison

    Sky News Australia

    .@ScottMorrisonMP: I’m a member of a religious community and my Pastor knows what’s going on in our community. If there was someone who was teaching things not in accordance with what our faith believed they’d be pointing it out.

  18. meherbaba@4:10pm
    Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio
    People say Ohio is the microcosm of US of A. So I think he should be the presidential candidate and Beto could be VP candidate

  19. nath:

    [‘Sorry Mavis, it’s not Washminster it’s Westington.’]

    It was termed the “Washminster Mutation” when I was at Uni (’80s) – see, for example, Dean Jaench’s “Getting Our Houses in Order”, pp. 16, 22, 50, 158.

  20. Aug 2011

    A CHRISTIAN charity which has so far spent more than $1.3 million to generate just $330,000 in loans for Indigenous Australians is being investigated.

    Many Rivers Microfinance is run by a former Hillsong executive who has already come under parliamentary scrutiny over an earlier loans program that delivered only a trickle of funds to the Indigenous community.

    In 2006 Leigh Coleman’s operation at Hillsong Emerge – the evangelical group’s former benevolent arm – had its funding discontinued after revelations the vast majority of taxpayer dollars went to employing staff.

    Mr Coleman’s current program at Many Rivers has since successfully raised millions of dollars from the Federal Government and some of the country’s biggest companies including Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and Westpac.

    But since its inception in 2007 to the end of the 2010 financial year the latest available records show it has delivered just 74 microenterprise loans worth a total of $330,000.

    https://www.news.com.au/national/ex-hillsong-executive-leigh-coleman-and-charity-many-rivers-microfinance-under-investigation/news-story/de1f8e2af66c6ac443e729b889b96bd2

    Maiden speech to parliament
    “Growing up in a Christian home, I made a commitment to my faith at an early age and have been greatly assisted by the pastoral work of many dedicated church leaders, in particular the Reverend Ray Green and pastors Brian Houston and Leigh Coleman”

  21. Bree says:
    Tuesday, November 13, 2018 at 4:06 pm
    No swinging voter cares about ….climate change

    You’re entirely wrong on that. Ask young parents how they feel about climate change and see the face of worry.

    There are already real, verifiable and irrevocable economic losses attributable to climate change. Trolls may try to deceive themselves. They will not deceive the public, who are very well aware that climate change is real and that we are called to action.

  22. The Advertiser
    ‏Verified account @theTiser
    4h4 hours ago

    99 data breaches have occurred in the controversial My Health Record system. But the agency responsible for its rollout insists there has never been a “security or privacy” breach. #auspol

  23. Big A Adrian@4:02pm
    Do you want Democrats to loose again in 2020? Looks like it. You did not seem to learn from Trump victory in 2016. Clinton was one of main reasons why democrats Lost. She had the second highest percentage in unpopularity for a US presidential candidate next only to Trump

  24. Nicholas @ #1028 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 4:27 pm

    Pot, meet Kettle

    You are another of the regular posters who lacks basic emotional regulation.

    Nearly all of your posts take a derisive tone.

    You should consider why that is. What is it in your life that isn’t working well for you?

    Insulting people on a blog is not an emotionally intelligent response to whatever you are going through.

    Diddums, Nicky baby.

  25. @ScottMorrisonMP: I’m a member of a religious community and my Pastor knows what’s going on in our community. If there was someone who was teaching things not in accordance with what our faith believed they’d be pointing it out.

    ___________________________________

    So Scott’s pastor knew all about various Christian denominations covering up child sexual abuse carried out by other pastors. Brian Houston apparently had no idea what his dad was up to – or that’s what he claimed.

  26. From the great Amy Remeikis:

    “Angus Taylor, the minister for lowering electricity prices in this age of Pro-Mo government”

    Pro-Mo government. Says it all!

  27. imacca

    Why have you swallowed the disgraceful US Neocon line on the french army?

    When the French embarrassed the US neocons by telling the truth about Iraq , and the fact that there were no WMD, the NeoCon disinformation started with a vicious, vicious series of hateful lies: ‘cheese-eating surrender monkeys’.

    This was incredibly hurtful to the french at the time. WW1 deaths as a percentage of the population: France, 4.3%; Australia, 1.2%; the US .1%.

    It was the strategic impact of the french fleet that sealed victory for the rebs in the American War of Independence.

    For the nonce:

    https://www.militaryfactory.com/battles/french_military_victories.asp

  28. ven: “Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio
    People say Ohio is the microcosm of US of A. So I think he should be the presidential candidate and Beto could be VP candidate”

    Beto as VP candidate is a good idea.

    I forgot about Brown, who certainly hails from outside the Dem stronghold areas. However, he is a fair bit to the left of Klobuchar and Bullock, while not being quite colourful enough to enthuse the African-Americans, young radicals, etc. Nor will he attract redneck voters. So not really enough of anything in particular to make him a standout candidate IMO. As with Warren, Biden et al, I reckon he’s an inferior choice to Sanders.

    (BTW, I reckon Sanders would not make a particularly good President. But, when you put him up in comparison to the current incumbent, he looks like a combination of Washington, Jefferson, Lincoln and the two Roosevelts.)

  29. Yet another terrorist attack. This time in NSW.

    Shocking. Tweed Heads? Did he frequent the Twin Towns club? The CEO and bar managers have to step up and do more to stop this. They cant keep looking the other way. It is unacceptable.

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