Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

A world of hurt for the Coalition from Newspoll, with voting intention deep into crisis territory and Scott Morrison’s standing continuing to decline.

The Australian reports this fortnight’s Newspoll is even worse for the Coalition than last time, with the Labor lead now at 55-45. Labor now holds a five point lead on the primary vote, being up one to 40% with the Coalition down one to 35%, while the Greens and One Nation are steady on 9% and 6% respectively. Despite/because of last week’s charm offensive in Queensland, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings continue to deteriorate, being down two on approval to 39% and up three on disapproval to 47%. His lead as preferred prime minister has also narrowed, from 43-35 to 42-36. Bill Shorten is down two on approval to 35% and steady on disapproval at 50%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1802.

Also out today are the federal voting intention numbers from the YouGov Galaxy poll of Queensland, for which state voting intention numbers were provided yesterday. This has the two parties level on two-party preferred in the state, which is unchanged on the last such poll at the tail end of the Malcolm Turnbull era. The Coalition is up a point on the primary vote to 38%, with Labor steady on 34%, One Nation down one to 9% and the Greens steady on 9% (also included as a response option is Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, scoring all of 1%). The poll also finds 29% saying they would be more likely to vote Coalition now Scott Morrison is Prime Minister, with 25% opting for less likely and 42% for no difference. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 839. The Courier-Mail’s report on the poll can be found here, though I wouldn’t bother if I were you.

UPDATE: The Australian also has Newspoll results on becoming a republic, which records a dramatic ten point drop in support since April, from 50% to 40%, with “strongly in favour” down from 25% to 15%. Opposition is up from 41% to 48%, although strong opposition is steady at 22%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,343 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

  1. ‘Greensborough Growler says:
    Tuesday, November 13, 2018 at 6:15 pm

    Boerwar @ #1095 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 6:13 pm

    Some more examples in the regular Morrison Cockup routine:

    34. Health Records Crash Cockup.
    35. The Bus/Plane Double Act Cockup
    36. The Serial Piss Up Cockup
    37. Forcing Newstart Recipients to Pick Fruit Kite Flying Cockup.
    38. Failed Grandstanding Power Price Cut Cockup.
    39. Adani Water Trigger Cockup.
    40. Food Bank Backflip Cockup.

    You should publish this as a novella.’

    I consider it a work in progress and look forward to the final chapter by the middle of next year.

  2. GG

    Morrison and Guy were clearly trying to use this tragedy for political purposes. They should be condemned. They are trying to divide our community and our nation.

    We don’t need them here.

  3. If you have the time, please consider attending a presentation by a distinguished American macroeconomist called Stephanie Kelton. She will be speaking at an event that is organized by GetUp.

    Future To Fight For: Rethinking The Economy
    https://rethink.futuretofightfor.org.au/speakers

    The Sydney event will be held at Sydney Town Hall, 483 George Street, Sydney NSW 2000.

    The date and time of the Sydney event will be Saturday 17th November 2018 at 7.00 pm.

    The Melbourne event will be held at Collingwood Town Hall, 140 Hoddle Street, Abbotsford VIC 3067.

    The date and time of the Melbourne event will be Tuesday 20th November at 7.00 pm

    The Brisbane event will be held at Lightspace, 30 Light Street, Fortitude Valley QLD 4006.

    The date and time of the Brisbane event will be Wednesday 21st November at 7.00 pm

    Professor Kelton will outline the rigorous macroeconomic case for the federal government to spend within the productive limits of the economy instead of targeting arbitrary and irrelevant deficit to GDP and public debt to GDP ratios.

  4. MEAA is now calling on the government to overhaul the way it selects and appoints ABC board members.

    The union has told a Senate inquiry into alleged political interference that whoever is communications minister at the time – whether Liberal or Labor – should not be able to circumvent the public broadcaster’s independent nomination panel.

    On Monday night’s episode of Four Corners, Milne revealed that Communications Minister Mitch Fifield called and asked if he would like to “throw [his] hat into the ring”.

    “It was extraordinarily concerning for anyone watching that program,” Paul Murphy said.

    “The government needs to think very carefully and properly about taking the advice of the independent nomination panel and ensure the person appointed has the appropriate experience and understanding of the independence and integrity of the ABC,” he said.

    “It’s clear from last night’s Four Corners that Justin Milne never understood that and still doesn’t.”

    A spokesman for Minister Fifield said in a statement: “The government has always abided by the relevant legislation and has no plans to alter what Labor designed and legislated.”

    Note the usual theme of “blame Labor”.

    https://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/extraordinary-dysfunction-union-wants-overhaul-of-abc-board-appointments-20181113-p50fqv.html

  5. Greensborough Growler @ #1089 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 2:10 pm

    frednk @ #1067 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 5:19 pm

    The Bourke street guy hadn’t been in any church for a decade. What I don’t understand is why Morrison has to pick on someone elses god; why wasn’t his god up to the task?

    The man who murdered 6 people by driving recklessly through the streets of Melbourne claimed God gave him permission to kill people. He was convicted today.

    Police are still seeking his accomplice.

  6. Michelle Rowland (Shadow Min for Communications)

    Mitch Fifield is not a fit Minister for the ABC. His fingerprints are all over the political interference scandal and it’s high time he and Scott Morrison discussed external development opportunities. #4Corners #auspol

  7. Nicholas @ #1105 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 6:24 pm

    If you have the time, please consider attending a presentation by a distinguished American macroeconomist called Stephanie Kelton. She will be speaking at an event that is organized by GetUp.

    Future To Fight For: Rethinking The Economy
    https://rethink.futuretofightfor.org.au/speakers

    The Sydney event will be held at Sydney Town Hall, 483 George Street, Sydney NSW 2000.

    The date and time of the Sydney event will be Saturday 17th November 2018 at 7.00 pm.

    The Melbourne event will be held at Collingwood Town Hall, 140 Hoddle Street, Abbotsford VIC 3067.

    The date and time of the Melbourne event will be Tuesday 20th November at 7.00 pm

    The Brisbane event will be held at Lightspace, 30 Light Street, Fortitude Valley QLD 4006.

    The date and time of the Brisbane event will be Wednesday 21st November at 7.00 pm

    Professor Kelton will outline the rigorous macroeconomic case for the federal government to spend within the productive limits of the economy instead of targeting arbitrary and irrelevant deficit to GDP and public debt to GDP ratios.

    Given your continuous contempt of alternative points of view, I’d say you are not the best fluffer she could have employed.

  8. Morrison and Guy were clearly trying to use this tragedy for political purposes. They should be condemned. They are trying to divide our community and our nation. They are a disgrace.

    I should really catch up with the event before posting, but if recent utterances are anything to go by I expect they are trying to make themselves look ‘strong’ and ‘in control’. (sarcasm)It’s what we want from our leaders.(/sarcasm)

  9. Barney in Go Dau @ #1108 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 6:29 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1089 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 2:10 pm

    frednk @ #1067 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 5:19 pm

    The Bourke street guy hadn’t been in any church for a decade. What I don’t understand is why Morrison has to pick on someone elses god; why wasn’t his god up to the task?

    The man who murdered 6 people by driving recklessly through the streets of Melbourne claimed God gave him permission to kill people. He was convicted today.

    Police are still seeking his accomplice.

    Gargosolis was lone wolf.

    The dickhead on Friday had a partner who is on the run.

    Not sure, but I think you are conflating two separate incidents.

  10. The NSW libs truly hate heritage be it natural, man made or aboriginal.

    2 items on 7 news. Yet another fuck up with the light rail. The tracks have been laid too close to a heritage listed pub/awning. Meaning one of the grossly oversized smart poles will require a hole in the ornate awning. Morons.
    And they are doubling down on raising the height of Warragamba dam even though they now admit it won’t stop downstream flooding but allegedly allow more time to evacuate people.
    And it definitely has nothing to do with allowing more land on flood plains to be developed for housing no siree, cross my heart etc. The result is that ancient aboriginal rock paintings among other things will be flooded and destroyed.
    That’s on top of all the other vandalism conducted by these a holes.
    Sadly I can’t really see them being given the boot in March.

  11. The Age
    ‏Verified account @theage
    57m57 minutes ago

    After Pellegrini’s visit, Guy claims Libs have edge on law and order #springst

    Josh Butler
    ‏Verified account @JoshButler
    2m2 minutes ago

    Josh Butler Retweeted Richard Di Natale

    Now federal Greens leader has joined other Greens MPs, calling for Jeremy Buckingham to “stand aside as a candidate for the next election”

    Abit late Leader. Greens should sack this useless Leader.

  12. This may give some insight into why ScoMo took funding from Foodbank and gave it to OzHarvest and SecondBite

    [1/3] Yesterday I promised to review the Foodbank decision. I have listened and decided to increase the Food Relief budget by $1.5 million over the next 4.5 years and have asked the Minister to place more focus on relief in drought affected areas.— Scott Morrison (@ScottMorrisonMP) November 12, 2018

    [2/3] This maintains Foodbank’s funding at $750K/yr, with Second Bite and OzHarvest funded as announced last week.— Scott Morrison (@ScottMorrisonMP) November 12, 2018

    [3/3] Important that food relief in drought areas is delivered in a way that does not undercut local businesses. Minister will work with providers to get the right plan in place.— Scott Morrison (@ScottMorrisonMP) November 12, 2018

  13. This will be a pleasure.

    Prof. Peter Doherty
    ‏@ProfPCDoherty

    Before the end of next May we’ll have the opportunity to reward the members of this LNP government with “alternative development opportunities.” #fourcorners

  14. And now a third item. The libs now want to turn Pyrmont into a high rise hub. Gee. As if there isn’t enough shoehorned into that area now.

  15. May they all experience the “liberation” the Mad Monk spoke of in regard to Holden workers. After which I hope they, especially those associated with Robodebt., struggle to find “alternative development opportunities.”.

  16. So ScaMo is only concerned with the plight of hungry farming families? Not that they shouldn’t be considered, but by making the directive that the increased funding, extracted like pulling teeth, should only go to the drought-affected farming families, Morrison has again kicked in the teeth families who go hungry and who can’t even afford the basics but who aren’t a part of his pet promotional vehicle.

    It stinks to high heaven.

  17. D&M @ #1121 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 6:51 pm

    May be this is what has caused Alan Jones latest bout of pain:

    Put #KidsOffNauru on the Sydney Opera House
    By Simon Holmes à Court:

    https://chuffed.org/project/putkidsoffnauruontheoperahouse

    The proximity to sanction from his employer radio station might be in play here.

    I’m sure Jones back ailments are well documented and are probably in need of treatment.

    But, I’m equally sure that either/both Jones and management are engineering a separation of permanent dimensions.

  18. Fair dinkum C@tmomma, it’s enough to drive a cobber to stone the crows, drag out old ozzie whatever they’re called. Fair suck of the sav.

  19. Given your continuous contempt of alternative points of view

    Well Greensborough, deliberately constraining fiscal policy for no good reason is not a legitimate and respectable point of view. Letting people suffer for no good reason, neglecting essential public services and infrastructure when the real resources are there to improve them is just silly. Not every point of view has equal merit. Believing that the Australian Government can run out of its own currency is silly. Targeting a fiscal surplus is asinine. Failing to understand the difference between a financial constraint and a real resource constraint is misguided. Not thinking about the relationships between the fiscal balance, the domestic non-government balance, and the external balance will lead to bad policy. It is important to tell the truth about these important matters.

  20. Boerwar @ #1095 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 6:13 pm

    “Some more examples in the regular Morrison Cockup routine:

    34. Health Records Crash Cockup.
    ….
    40. Food Bank Backflip Cockup.”

    In one sense ScumMo has achieved a surprising amount in only a few months in office. The Liberals were looking for a change in polling trend and they have certainly gotten it.

  21. So the Indonesians don’t like us for moving our embassy to Jerusalem, the capital of Israel. Then we should cut the half a billion dollars in foreign aid we give them annually, much better to spend that money on Australians rather than Indonesians anyway. PM Morrison should stand his ground on this, Australians are with him on this.

  22. Nicholas @ #1125 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 7:00 pm

    Given your continuous contempt of alternative points of view

    Well Greensborough, deliberately constraining fiscal policy for no good reason is not a legitimate and respectable point of view. Letting people suffer for no good reason, neglecting essential public services and infrastructure when the real resources are there to improve them is just silly. Not every point of view has equal merit. Believing that the Australian Government can run out of its own currency is silly. Targeting a fiscal surplus is asinine. Failing to understand the difference between a financial constraint and a real resource constraint is misguided. Not thinking about the relationships between the fiscal balance, the domestic non-government balance, and the external balance will lead to bad policy. It is important to tell the truth about these important matters.

    Long winded piffle!

    You’re an enabler not a reformer.

    You are basically a middle class wanker with pangs of guilt.

  23. Meanwhile in Victoria…

    The Victorian Greens are standing by two candidates, including one who rapped about date rape and used homophobic slurs and degrading terms about women.

    The Greens candidate in Footscray, Angus McAlpine, apologised on Tuesday for the “reprehensible” lyrics he rapped as the frontman in hip hop outfit Broken Aesthetiks.

    The lyrics included lines such as: “Got no class when trying to get some a**, put a rowie [Rohypnol] in your glass and wait for a few minutes to pass” and “date rape drugs in her drink then have my way.”

    Mr McAlpine said he had been on a journey of discovery that had taught him about “toxic masculinity”.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-13/victorian-greens-stand-by-footscray-and-sandringham-candidates/10494022

  24. In fact Bree, we think Scotty is a dope.

    We like our neighbours in Indonesia a lot – and are appalled that the Liar from the Shire has insulted them by this hamfisted attempt to ape Donald Trump.

  25. Aqualung says:
    Tuesday, November 13, 2018 at 6:50 pm

    And now a third item. The libs now want to turn Pyrmont into a high rise hub. Gee. As if there isn’t enough shoehorned into that area now.

    Sh*t. Vandals. Can you link any info on that please?

  26. Bree @ #1127 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 7:03 pm

    So the Indonesians don’t like us for moving our embassy to Jerusalem, the capital of Israel. Then we should cut the half a billion dollars in foreign aid we give them annually, much better to spend that money on Australians rather than Indonesians anyway. PM Morrison should stand his ground on this, Australians are with him on this.

    What!?! Cut Foreign Aid to Indonesia so over-indulged and clueless tossers like you can get more!?! And China can move a step closer!?! You really are a brainwashed idiot prepared to accept any old bs from the Coalition. I feel sorry for you.

  27. It was on Sydney 7 news at 6pm mikehilliard. Not sure if anything in the Herald. Haven’t looked there recently.
    I’m still shaking my head at the latest piece of stupidity to do with the light rail.

  28. “and are appalled that the Liar from the Shire has insulted them by this hamfisted attempt to ape Donald Trump.”

    And in Trump’s case, “ape” is the operative word.

  29. I doubt the Indonesians and their $1.3 (AUD) trillion economy on the whole need the half a billion of money from Australia. Not that we actually give that much…. Try $266 million in 2018/19. Most of which is focused on developing democracy…. imagine what fun an Islamic dictatorship in Indonesia would be like…. There would be no way to stop the number of boats that would come if that happened (we are talking tens of thousands).

  30. C@t @ 7.13

    Bree is not real. It is an artificial stupidity program from the same cocked up computer system that spewed out Wayne. Treat it as the absurdity that it is.

  31. B.S.Fairman,
    Our Foreign Aid to Indonesia was used exactly to counter Extremist Islam, by contributing to the building of secular schools in regions where the only alternative was a Madrassa.

    So, if you want the Extremists to win in Indonesia, you will support the cutting of Foreign Aid.

    Also, they may have a $1.3 Trillion economy but they have a lot more people to provide for. Australia also has a trillion dollar economy and a hell of a lot less people.

  32. GG

    You are being too kind to “Nicholas” and his abject nonsense

    My take is that “Nicholas” does not have the proverbial two bob to rub together – and consequently no prospects of ever purchasing a home – and his only prospects in life are to promote the ultimate socialist society where no individual owns anything and is survived by government largesse based on there being no commodity such as money or debt – the measure on productivity being you wake up in the morning and do what you want to do

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