Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

No change in voting intention from the latest Essential poll, which also finds respondents evenly split on the future of the Nauru detention centre.

The Guardian reports the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 53-47. The poll also includes the monthly leadership ratings, which show Scott Morrison leading Bill Shorten 42-27 as preferred prime minister, out from 39-27 a month ago. We will have to wait for the full report later today to see primary votes and approval ratings. The poll also finds 40% in favour of transferring families and children on Nauru to Australia, with 39% opposed; 37% supporting the closure of the Nauru detention centre and transferring those remaining to Australia, with 42% opposed; and 35% in support of keeping them there indefinitely, with 43% opposed. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1025.

UPDATE: Full report here. Both major parties are up a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 38% and Labor to 37%, with the Greens reverting to 10% after a spike to 12% a fortnight ago, and One Nation up two to 7% after dropping three in the last poll. Scott Morrison is up six on approval to 43% and down three on disapproval to 28%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down three to 33% and down two to 45%.

The Guardian report focused on asylum seeker questions, but the other focus for the supplementary questions this week is the media. Thirty-six per cent offered that the government had too much influence on the ABC, 16% not enough, 17% about right and 31% don’t know, with Labor and Greens voters greatly more likely to offer the first response. Forty per cent felt ABC reporting was independent and unbiased and 34% the opposite – Labor and Greens supporters weighed more heavily towards the former, with Coalition supporters evenly split.

Also featured is an occasional “trust in media” question, along with a new question identifying specific news outlets. Despite all the fuss of late, results to both follow the usual patterns: public beats commercial, broadsheet beats tabloid, news beats tabloid, and there’s nothing lower than an “internet blog”. The Australian has a slight edge over the Fairfax papers, which I would hypothesise has something to do with the latter’s move to tabloid.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,060 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  2. Evening all

    Another note from Wentworth.

    A staticky-sounding Dave Sharma robo-called on the landline at 7.29pm this evening. Always annoying those types of interruptions and at that hour. Rang off immediately so can’t report what was said. Did, however, receive an e-mail from Mr Sharma at 5.31pm today – a complaint e-mail I sent Mr Turnbull (even though I subsequently unsubscribed) obviously was harvested and re-cycled by the Libs. Unimpressed. The literal party lines piffle follows:

    [ ]

    I know many people in Wentworth are frustrated by the recent turmoil in Canberra. I share that frustration.

    One reason I have decided to get involved is to do my bit to improve the tone of the national discussion and help ensure the parliament focusses on the issues that matter.

    This week I sent you some information about what I stand for and why I’m running for Wentworth. If you haven’t received it yet you can have a look online here.

    With 16 candidates standing, this by-election will be very close. With only a one-seat majority for the government, there is a lot at stake.

    [ ], a Liberal vote will ensure the government gets on with the job of delivering a stronger economy and a more secure future. A vote for Labor or an independent would risk a hung parliament and greater uncertainty.

    I love this country and am committed to doing what I can to ensure a better future for the next generation – my three daughters and everyone else like them.

    Yours sincerely

    Dave Sharma
    Liberal for Wentworth

    One household member has already voted – Labor first, Heath second, Katter last, Liberal second last, Phelps third last. Others will do similarly.

  3. “Renshaw should get there under his own steam. Not by weakening a strength.”

    The real weakening of a strength has been the way that CA have abused Uzi throughout his career – playing him out of position,changing his position, dropping him when others have been in worse form etc etc. He is a natural no 3 or 4 bat and the selectors should pick and stick with him as our no.3 no matter how attractive the latest thought bubble is: sure he has had some success as an opener & cheers on an excellent second innimgs century but that’s not his natural position.


  4. * Actually, if you read the details it appears about 86kg of the weight attributed to the bomb is inert components. But “90kg bomb” sounds so much more impressive.

    Diesel and fertilizer?

  5. In fairness to Langer if:

    (a) he has convinced Khawaja to get fit and focussed; and
    (b) tightened up Head’s offside play and defence;

    Well done.

    Everything else is fucked though.

    No argument there.

  6. Boerwar @ #1887 Thursday, October 11th, 2018 – 4:59 pm

    ‘a r says:
    Thursday, October 11, 2018 at 5:34 pm

    Boerwar @ #1866 Thursday, October 11th, 2018 – 4:29 pm

    Triggs demonstrating on Drum precisely why she failed as President of the Human Rights Commission.

    Because Tony Abbott and the rest of the Liberal party were all openly hostile to her and everything that came out of the UNHRC?’

    You make relevant observations but her behaviour on the Drum was another facet: dogmatic, didactic and seeking to dominate by occupying the space. Compare and contrast the amount of time Triggs was talking as opposed to the person sitting to her left.

    Fancy a woman thinking she was allowed to do that!

  7. frednk

    8kg of gunpowder. Was going to blow himself up. Teh rest reported as “The extra weight was due to plywood crating and other components used to transport the device.”

  8. BREAKING – Trouble for the International Space Station crew – US and Russian ISS crews preparing for emergency landing.
    Apparently a booster rocket failed during launching

  12. C@tmomma:

    [‘Kavanaugh’s wife looks terrified of him.’]

    Yes, I picked that up too.

    Professionally he appears to be a more than a competent judge; but what is he like behind closed doors?

    A number of moons ago I worked for a judge, whose chamber was next to the then Chief Judge at Common Law , L..,J

    In the space of some twelve months he managed to humiliate, from memory, seven associates, to the point where they were either sacked or resigned.

    He got very angry when writing judgments, purportedly throwing objects at the walls, narrowly missing on occasions his associates, And what really pissed him off was when Michael Kirby was appointed President of the Court of Appeal, as were most the bench in the mid-80s.

    Many think that members of the judiciary are almost god-like. This is a complete fallacy. From my recollections they have the same foibles as do we all.

  15. “Fancy a woman thinking she was allowed to do that!”
    Sadly, AJM, people like Boerwar are unlikely to ever get it. They are not worth the effort.

  16. Gareth Hutchens
    ‏
    Verified account

    @grhutchens
    Follow Follow @grhutchens
    More
    Fascinating scenes here

    CBA’s CEO Matt Comyn is giving evidence to a parliamentary inquiry in Canberra

    Unusually, there are members of the public in the room watching too, & they’re heckling him whenever he says something they think is bullshit. They’re heckling a lot #auspol

    10:05 am – 11 Oct 2018

    They’re heckling a lot. About as often as Comyn opens his mouth I’d wager.

  19. ‘Sohar says:
    Thursday, October 11, 2018 at 8:33 pm

    “Fancy a woman thinking she was allowed to do that!”
    Sadly, AJM, people like Boerwar are unlikely to ever get it. They are not worth the effort.’

    Oh, I get it alright.

    (1) Triggs was systematically bastardized by Abbott & Co.
    (2) Triggs achieved nothing of note as President of the Human Rights Commission.
    (3) Triggs on the Drum tonight, in the absence of Abbott&Co, hardly let the woman* to her left get a word in because Triggs was too busy telling everyone like it is according to the Gospel of St Triggs. When other members of the panel tried to offer insights that were at variance with Triggs, Triggs would barely let them have a say before correcting them.
    You do realize that it is OK to criticize the bad behaviour of a women?

    *Sadly, people like AJM and Sohar are unlikely to ever get it that a woman can boss another women and turn her into a bit player in a panel discussion. People who don’t get that are not worth the effort.

  21. Aunt Mavis

    Many think that members of the judiciary are almost god-like.

    Understandable given they have a similar job to that of Anubis.

  22. S777

    Aly is incorrect in the following statement:

    ‘…
    There is still an ever-thinning layer of symbols that live on in our imaginations somewhere beyond commerce. The Opera House is obviously one of them. So are overtly state-focussed institutions like the War Memorial.
    …’

    The War Memorial is sponsored by various foreign-owned arms companies and there is no way of visiting the War Memorial without being reminded of this.

  27. Boerwar @ #1969 Thursday, October 11th, 2018 – 7:44 pm

    ‘Sohar says:
    Thursday, October 11, 2018 at 8:33 pm

    “Fancy a woman thinking she was allowed to do that!”
    Sadly, AJM, people like Boerwar are unlikely to ever get it. They are not worth the effort.’

    Oh, I get it alright.

    (1) Triggs was systematically bastardized by Abbott & Co.
    (2) Triggs achieved nothing of note as President of the Human Rights Commission.
    (3) Triggs on the Drum tonight, in the absence of Abbott&Co, hardly let the woman* to her left get a word in because Triggs was too busy telling everyone like it is according to the Gospel of St Triggs. When other members of the panel tried to offer insights that were at variance with Triggs, Triggs would barely let them have a say before correcting them.
    You do realize that it is OK to criticize the bad behaviour of a women?

    *Sadly, people like AJM and Sohar are unlikely to ever get it that a woman can boss another women and turn her into a bit player in a panel discussion. People who don’t get that are not worth the effort.

    I didn’t say that. I didn’t see the program. However, until I observe you regularly criticising every person who dominates a panel discussion in the same terms, whether you agree with them or not, my view would be that you were activated by seeing a woman “acting out of her place”.

    I have seen and heard Professor Triggs in person and she strikes me as both very determined and very professional in pursuing the responsibilities she was given on the Human Rights Commission. She got to see the dark underbelly of our political culture and the highest level and I am not surprised she continues with the same determination.

  30. Bernard Keane’s take on “Religious Freedoms”* in Australia:

    “Far from being besieged, religious freedom is in rude health. Taxpayers lose billions of dollars a year subsidising it through the tax and educational systems. Churches are allowed to evade the consequences of their long history of child rape. The most offensive smears were peddled about LGBTIQ people in the marriage equality debate without consequences. There is literally no way in which religious freedom is threatened.”

    * in the context of contemporary Australia, the term should be locked up in quotes

  33. Dio:

    [‘I’m pretty sure there is a photo of Triggs in the dictionary alongside the definition of “sanctimonious”.’]

    A trite comment if ever I’ve seen one.

    You seem to have a problem with erudite women; Triggs having to put up with a barrage of unwarranted criticism by embittered men, evidenced inter alia by her appearances in Senate Estimates.

  35. Nobody does pious sanctimony better than the Pale, Male and Stale religious numpties in the coalition. Kevin Andrews in particular comes to mind.

  37. Triggs should never have done a deal with Bowen and Burke to delay the inquiry into off shore detention until the Coalition were in power. Once she did that, she was hopelessly compromised.

  38. “ScoMoNoHomo is on Bolt’s SkyAfterDark show- and what does the Dutchman say?”

    Good grief, racism, accusations of homophobia and defamation all in one sentence. Lol.

    Re Prof Triggs.
    She recommended $350,000 compo to the fellow who beat his pregnant wife to death with a bicycle.
    No talk about the human rights of lady and baby. That’s why the conservatives felt she was not quite the right person for the job – a little too much living in her own bubble rather than real world stuff as ordinary people know it – you don’t offer masses of money to a man who brutally murdered his wife and unborn child.

  43. “I find a lot of followers of certain religions quite sanctimonious.
    More sanctimony the higher they get in the hierarchy.”
    Amen to that brother!!

  46. It was always going to be a huge ask for Beto O’Rourke to beat off Ted Cruz in Texas.

    The gender gap widens a little, but U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke, the Democratic challenger in the Texas Senate race, gains no ground as Republican incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz holds a 54 – 45 percent likely voter lead, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today.

    Men back Sen. Cruz 62 – 37 percent as women tip to O’Rourke 52 – 46 percent.

    This compares to a 54 – 45 percent Cruz likely voter lead in a September 18 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll, with men backing Cruz 57 – 42 percent and women divided, going 50 percent for Cruz and 48 percent for O’Rourke.

    Today, O’Rourke leads 93 – 7 percent among Democrats and 56 – 42 percent among independent voters. Republicans back Cruz 94 – 6 percent.

    O’Rourke leads 84 – 10 percent among black voters and 61 – 37 percent among Hispanic voters. White voters back Cruz 69 – 30 percent.

    Among Texas likely voters who name a U.S. Senate candidate, 96 percent say their mind is made up.

    Cruz has a 52 – 44 percent favorability rating. O’Rourke has a divided 45 – 47 percent favorability rating.

    https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2578

  48. Republicans shrug off the dire warnings of the IPCC.

    David SirotaVerified account@davidsirota
    5h5 hours ago
    Imagine an apocalyptic meteor-headed-to-Earth sci-fi movie, in which the party controlling every level of the American government casually shrugs off NASA reports of the meteor’s imminent world-ending impact. That’s basically what this is, but it’s not a movie. It’s real.

    https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/410871-gop-shrugs-off-dire-study-warning-of-global-warming

  49. [‘I find Triggs sanctimonious. I also find Waleed Aly and David Marr sanctimonious. I actually find a lot of people sanctimonious.’]

    I find a lot in the medical profession sanctimonious, particularly those who believe that if their patients show any sign of being litigious, they should be tossed aside, the tort of medical negligence being a requisite remedy.

  50. I really do believe you need to be some sort of a sociopath to get to the top of a financial institution like a bank:

    Westpac boss Brian Hartzer has admitted his bank was the unnamed financial institution singled out by the competition regulator in a report over its plans to pass the full cost of a new major bank levy onto customers instead of shareholders.

    Mr Hartzer also admitted during questioning at a parliamentary committee on Thursday that Westpac considered passing on the cost of the multibillion-dollar levy to bank staff.

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/westpac-considered-passing-bank-levy-onto-customers-and-staff-20181011-p5094q.html

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