Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

No change in voting intention from the latest Essential poll, which also finds respondents evenly split on the future of the Nauru detention centre.

The Guardian reports the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 53-47. The poll also includes the monthly leadership ratings, which show Scott Morrison leading Bill Shorten 42-27 as preferred prime minister, out from 39-27 a month ago. We will have to wait for the full report later today to see primary votes and approval ratings. The poll also finds 40% in favour of transferring families and children on Nauru to Australia, with 39% opposed; 37% supporting the closure of the Nauru detention centre and transferring those remaining to Australia, with 42% opposed; and 35% in support of keeping them there indefinitely, with 43% opposed. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1025.

UPDATE: Full report here. Both major parties are up a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 38% and Labor to 37%, with the Greens reverting to 10% after a spike to 12% a fortnight ago, and One Nation up two to 7% after dropping three in the last poll. Scott Morrison is up six on approval to 43% and down three on disapproval to 28%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down three to 33% and down two to 45%.

The Guardian report focused on asylum seeker questions, but the other focus for the supplementary questions this week is the media. Thirty-six per cent offered that the government had too much influence on the ABC, 16% not enough, 17% about right and 31% don’t know, with Labor and Greens voters greatly more likely to offer the first response. Forty per cent felt ABC reporting was independent and unbiased and 34% the opposite – Labor and Greens supporters weighed more heavily towards the former, with Coalition supporters evenly split.

Also featured is an occasional “trust in media” question, along with a new question identifying specific news outlets. Despite all the fuss of late, results to both follow the usual patterns: public beats commercial, broadsheet beats tabloid, news beats tabloid, and there’s nothing lower than an “internet blog”. The Australian has a slight edge over the Fairfax papers, which I would hypothesise has something to do with the latter’s move to tabloid.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,060 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Sprocket_ @ #1964 Thursday, October 11th, 2018 – 8:33 pm
    It looks as cheap and tacky as something Jones would be associated with.

    No Jones would have had boys in short shorts.

  2. Sprocket_ @ #1964 Thursday, October 11th, 2018 – 8:33 pm
    It looks as cheap and tacky as something Jones would be associated with.

    No Jones would have had boys in short shorts.

  3. Confessions

    It was always going to be a huge ask for Beto O’Rourke to beat off Ted Cruz in Texas.

    You might want to rephrase that if you are also posting on any american sites 🙂

  4. The same principle applies to a sign writer, a speech writer or a print shop

    That is not how anti-discrimination law currently operates. If you are arguing for what you think the law ought to be, cool. But under current law a sign writer is not legally obligated to write whatever formulation of words a prospective customer requests.

    If a sign writer creates “Australia rocks” signs for white folk but refuses to make the same kind of sign for black folk, that would be a breach of the law.

    If the sign writer refuses to create “Australia rocks” signs for anyone, that’s fine under the law. They aren’t discriminating against people on the basis of a characteristic such as race, sex, disability status.

    A vendor is not compelled to meet every whim of every customer. A vendor is permitted to be discriminating / discerning / selective about the suite of products they are willing to sell. If you go to an Indian restaurant and ask for Japanese food and they say they, “Sorry, we chose to focus on selling Indian food”, the restaurant has not engaged in unlawful discrimination. They are not required to be prepared for every conceivable contingency.

  5. Hewson encouraging voters to vote against Liberals to make a point. Turnbull jnr recommending a vote against liberals. Costello describing the Liberal economic position as weird. Could it be that the less right wing faction of the Liberals are positioning themselves for a move after May 2019

  6. Scott Morrison is a nong if he thinks people are going to be convinced when garbage like this comes out of his cakehole:

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison accused Mr Shorten of abandoning market-based economic policy earlier on Thursday in a pitch to voters designed to portray Labor as anti-business and anti-growth.

    “What’s become clear is that today’s Labor Party under Bill Shorten no longer sees economic policy like the Labor Party used to,” he said.

    “They are no longer fellow travellers, I believe, on this modern Australian Compact that began roughly 40 years ago. They have discarded the mindset of Bob Hawke, and they have embraced Bill Shorten’s politics of envy.”

    When it’s actually only the Labor Party that are developing policies that demonstrate that they are being economically rational.

  7. Peter Stanton @ #2007 Thursday, October 11th, 2018 – 10:19 pm

    Hewson encouraging voters to vote against Liberals to make a point. Turnbull jnr recommending a vote against liberals. Costello describing the Liberal economic position as weird. Could it be that the less right wing faction of the Liberals are positioning themselves for a move after May 2019

    After October 20 you mean? 🙂

  8. Peter Stanton:

    Yep C@t is right if the statements on Insiders the last week are any indication. Moderates holding their fire until after the Wentworth by-election when they’ll have plenty to say 😀

  9. After October 20 you mean?

    Does look a bit that way don’t it.

    But they’ve had Stockholm Syndrome so long, and shown themselves to be spineless so often, it’s far more likely to come to nothing when you get to the point that they actually have to stand up for themselves.

  10. C@t

    Costello describing the Liberal economic position as weird. Could it be that the less right wing faction of the Liberals are positioning themselves for a move after May 2019

    Costello “less RW’ ? Mr HR Nicholls Society Ho ho ho. Costello’s complaint about the Liberal economic position would be that not enough workers are being flogged and minimum wages have not been reduced.

  11. Aunt Mavis

    A quick Google of a Thesaurus and ………… Most impressed with Pecksniffian 🙂


  12. [‘Guardian Australia revealed in August that the minister granted visas to a French au pair connected to the relatives of the AFL chief executive, Gillon McLachlan, and an Italian au pair working for a former Queensland police colleague.’]

    If everything’s above board why would Dutton worry about the leaks in the ABF. And what about his selective leaking to the media?

    And surely the Guardian has a more flattering pic of him than this:

  13. Boerwar says:
    Thursday, October 11, 2018 at 6:05 pm

    ‘…Nevertheless, Sturgeon made a telling point on Tuesday when she compared the receptivity of the EU to Ireland’s special concerns in the Brexit negotiations with the hostility of the UK government to the special concerns of Scotland.
    That is because no EU Brexit deal will go ahead without the support of the Irish Republic. Any single member state can scupper a deal.

    That said, May does have a tin ear when it comes to Scottish sensibilities.

    ….quite right…as a general rule, the Tories are also hostile to the Irish Republic as well.

  14. William

    I agree about John being sanctimonious but not George.

    However Mick Jagger takes the cake as far as I’m concerned.

    For all the sex, drugs, raunchy lyrics and dancing, I always see the proud altar boy persona that deep down he is trying to communicate. If you look carefully deep into his eyes you can see him saying to us all “I’m going to heaven and you prats aren’t”

  15. Eunoe @ #1952 Thursday, October 11th, 2018 – 7:57 pm

    Evening all

    Another note from Wentworth.

    A staticky-sounding Dave Sharma robo-called on the landline at 7.29pm this evening. Always annoying those types of interruptions and at that hour. Rang off immediately so can’t report what was said. Did, however, receive an e-mail from Mr Sharma at 5.31pm today – a complaint e-mail I sent Mr Turnbull (even though I subsequently unsubscribed) obviously was harvested and re-cycled by the Libs. Unimpressed. The literal party lines piffle follows:

    [ ]

    I know many people in Wentworth are frustrated by the recent turmoil in Canberra. I share that frustration.

    One reason I have decided to get involved is to do my bit to improve the tone of the national discussion and help ensure the parliament focusses on the issues that matter.

    This week I sent you some information about what I stand for and why I’m running for Wentworth. If you haven’t received it yet you can have a look online here.

    With 16 candidates standing, this by-election will be very close. With only a one-seat majority for the government, there is a lot at stake.

    [ ], a Liberal vote will ensure the government gets on with the job of delivering a stronger economy and a more secure future. A vote for Labor or an independent would risk a hung parliament and greater uncertainty.

    I love this country and am committed to doing what I can to ensure a better future for the next generation – my three daughters and everyone else like them.

    Yours sincerely

    Dave Sharma
    Liberal for Wentworth

    One household member has already voted – Labor first, Heath second, Katter last, Liberal second last, Phelps third last. Others will do similarly.

    Exactly the same here – email harvested despite unsubscribing and asking not to be contacted. I’ve had three emails incl this afternoon’s one, and two mail outs.

    All full of vacuous rubbish. I clicked through to his ‘what i stand for’ link, and more vacuous rubbish, most notable that under the environment he crows about Turnbull having got Centennial Park onto the National Heritage list, oh wow, golly gosh. The front of our ridiculously small little one room wide terrace house is on some national register. Who gives a shit.

    Rome burns meanwhile. Nero’s house was Domus Aurea wasn’t it; lined with gold. Sort of harbourside mansion in Roma. Worth a visit if you’re passing that way btw.

  16. Confessions, re JW’s ‘odd’ comment. I lived in the USA for a bit and I learned that ‘beat off’ has a coarse sexual connotation. In that light your comment about the relationship between O’Rourke and Cruz takes on a different meaning.

  17. A big congratulations to Shellbell and Mrs Shellbell on your probono efforts nominations.

    Shellbell, I still remember how you helped with a case I mentioned on PollBludger.

  18. I have got really busy again, and read a lot of posts here, but have no time to reply.

    Thanks especially to our Lord God William, for keeping this blog alive, and to his servant on Earth, BK, who gives us the most important summary of our daily news, without which we would be helpless to interpret the big political picture, given our lack of time while doing our day jobs.

  19. Shit happens…

    Queensland Urban Utilities submitted a development application to Brisbane City Council on Thursday proposing moving the current sewage pump station from near South Brisbane train station to Alexander Smith Place, less than 200 metres away. The park for the proposed sewage pump is on the corner of Grey Street and Peel Street, directly outside the Queensland Labor Party’s headquarters.

  20. Watching the Drum as I type and it abundantly obvious that they have uploaded a different episode to that which Boerwar watched.

    Same people so they must have done another take. 🙂

  21. And, an “Oh poor pitiful me” post.

    Thanks for the updates on the Cricket – my favourite game ever.

    Some how my life has got so complicated that I can’t even find time to listen to (or watch) the cricket. I need to work on my work-life balance.

    The last game I watched / listened to was when I was in labour with baby number four. It was a world series match, between the Windies (my favourite team) and Pakistan.

    In the early stages of labour I was watching the match in the tea room, but then it got a bit painful, and so I had to go to the delivery suite.

    There they had the match on radio. During the very painful stage of labour (transition), I must have been listening to the radio. After darling son was born, my first question was “Did the Pakistan batting line really collapse when they were obviously going to win, or was I hallucinating?

    It turned out the duty obstetrician, the only female in the bunch, was also a great cricket fan, and so when we figured out that the baby was healthy etc., we had a great natter about the cricket.

    It actually made me feel a lot better about myself that another woman also liked cricket.

  22. C@tmomma @ #2038 Thursday, October 11th, 2018 – 10:18 pm

    Late Riser,
    From little things, big things grow. 🙂

    One of the reasons Trump became president, I think, is that his entertainment value kept him at the front of people’s minds through his selection as the Republican candidate. But now the Trump spectacle is wearisome at best. It’s worn me out. Sanity needs some measure of joy, so I’ve largely tuned Trump out. And while it is impossible to predict I hope more and more do the same, while news outlets lose interest, and he gets shriller in response, and his spiral deepens.

  23. Possibly noted earlier, but this comment by Turnbull’s son echoes the idea that if you can’t bring yourself to vote Labor, this by-election in Wentworth is a low-risk time for a Liberal voter to voice disapproval with the Liberals. Just do it. You know you want to. It’s only until next year.

    Don’t vote for the Liberal party in the Wentworth byelection if you want to pull the Liberal party back from the brink. It’s the one clear signal you can send. Consider it an intervention for Australia, for the party and for Wentworth.

  24. Hi Itza

    You’re more tolerant than I have become in following links to ensured palaver. A debt of gratitude is owing.

    Am listening to Professor Chris Hedges, Pulitzer Prize-winning author, give his most recent address regarding his latest book ‘America: The Farewell Tour’, and highly commend it to all:

    The following description doesn’t do the address credit. It is an important intellectual tour de force describing the bases for, and implications of the abject bereftness of contemporary Western politics, U.S. version, with unassailable application to Australia.

    Chris Hedges spoke in Eugene, Oct. 3, 2018 to the Community Rights Lane County. He is on the west coast for his latest book, “America: The Farewell Tour”

    From the book’s website, “Chris Hedges’s profound and provocative examination of America in crisis is “an exceedingly…provocative book, certain to arouse controversy, but offering a point of view that needs to be heard” (Booklist), about how bitter hopelessness and malaise have resulted in a culture of sadism and hate.

    America, says Pulitzer Prize­–winning reporter Chris Hedges, is convulsed by an array of pathologies that have arisen out of profound hopelessness, a bitter despair, and a civil society that has ceased to function. The opioid crisis; the retreat into gambling to cope with economic distress; the pornification of culture; the rise of magical thinking; the celebration of sadism, hate, and plagues of suicides are the physical manifestations of a society that is being ravaged by corporate pillage and a failed democracy. As our society unravels, we also face global upheaval caused by catastrophic climate change. All these ills presage a frightening reconfiguration of the nation and the planet.

    Donald Trump rode this disenchantment to power. In his “forceful and direct” (Publishers Weekly) America: The Farewell Tour, Hedges argues that neither political party, now captured by corporate power, addresses the systemic problem. Until our corporate coup d’état is reversed these diseases will grow and ravage the country. “With a trademark blend of…sharply observed detail, Hedges writes a requiem for the American dream” (Kirkus Reviews) and seeks to jolt us out of our complacency while there is still time.”

    Domus Aurea, indeed. Lotus eating, too.

  25. Interesting that the Japanese are sniffing around about selling us submarines again.

    Buying some boats off the shelf may actually be worth considering if the Barracuda build schedule gets extended, as an alternative to upgrading 2-3 of the Collins class as an interim measure.

    The Japanese would probably offer a Soryu like their last boat launched that has all lithium batteries and no AIP. Price would be good as they have an established rolling build program running. But, that actually means they are still building something not as stealthy as basic hull arrangement and construction hasn’t changed and design has moved on.

    The Swedes however are building these:

    Look a a bit like Collins?? The “Oceanic” version with a 4 tube VLS is the kind of “interim” capability that would be useful bridging any capability gap that arises. Maybe have components built OS, and assembly fitting out in Australia??

  26. Like I said earlier – Tim Paine puts a very high price on his wicket!

    Well done Aussies to pull that out of the fire so bravely.


  27. Late Riser @ #2028 Thursday, October 11th, 2018 – 8:01 pm

    Confessions, re JW’s ‘odd’ comment. I lived in the USA for a bit and I learned that ‘beat off’ has a coarse sexual connotation. In that light your comment about the relationship between O’Rourke and Cruz takes on a different meaning.

    Oh. Never would I have thought of it in that context. 🙁

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