Supplementary Sunday smorgasbord

Nothing from Newspoll this week, but Ipsos breaks it down, and there’s yet another privately conducted poll from Wentworth.

No Newspoll this week, which is holding back for the resumption of parliament next week. However, we do have a new Victorian state poll out from ReachTEL, which you can read about in the post directly below this one, along with an update of my poll aggregation from the state. The Guardian should bring us results from Essential Research’s regular fortnightly federal poll overnight tomorrow. Also on the polling front:

• The Fairfax papers have reported state breakdowns aggregated from the last three monthly Ipsos polls, which mix one poll from before the leadership coup, one from the immediate lead-up to it, and one from a month after. This shows Labor leading 52-48 in New South Wales (53-47 in the previous quarter), 56-44 in Victoria (unchanged), 52-48 in Queensland (unchanged) and 51-49 in Western Australia (an unusual 53-47 to the Coalition last time), while the Coalition leads 51-48 in South Australia (52-48 to Labor last time).

• The Guardian reports on another poll in Wentworth, conducted for the Refugee Council of Australia, which I’m going to assume was a ReachTEL although the report doesn’t say. This one is particularly interesting in providing two-party results for Liberal-versus-Phelps as well as Liberal-versus-Labor. This suggests Phelps will win 53-47 if only she can get ahead of Labor. However, the primary votes suggest she has a hurdle to clear, with Dave Sharma (Liberal) on 38.1%, Tim Murray (Labor) on 24.5%, Kerryn Phelps (independent) on 15.9% and others in single digits (there may be an undecided component in the mix of perhaps around 5% or 6% as well). The Liberal-versus-Labor result is consistent with earlier polling in showing it to be extemely close: 50-50 in this case. However, as with the previous polls, this is based on Labor receiving around two-third of preferences from mostly conservative independent candidates, which seems a bit much. The sample for the poll was 870; no field work date is provided. UPDATE: Ben Raue has provided the full numbers. After inclusion of a forced response follow-up for the 4.8% undecided, the primary votes are Sharma 39.9%, Murray 25.0%, Phelps 17.3%, Greens 9.1%, Heath 3.6%. Respondents were also asked how they had voted in 2016, and the responses are fairly well in line with the actual result.

Also on Wentworth, my guide to the by-election has been expanded and updated. Antony Green’s guide offers a particularly useful survey of the how-to-vote card situation that makes use of the term “virtue signalling”. Joe Hildebrand of the Daily Telegraph has taken aim at the Greens for putting Labor ahead of Kerryn Phelps – which, he correctly notes, reduces her chances of overtaking Labor and making the final count, at which she would receive a stronger flow of preferences than Labor and thus stand a better chance of defeating the Liberals. But as Antony Green also rightly notes, “Green voters are a tough flock to herd”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

629 comments on “Supplementary Sunday smorgasbord”

  1. I don’t reckon they score support for regulation and taxation of business as authoritarian.

    On the Political Compass graph the Authoritarian to Libertarian axis relates to social policy and civil and political freedoms.

    The Right to Left axis relates to the state’s role in organizing the economy.

  2. Well, Fifield did mention a concern about fake news. On the upside, if that came in, the ABC would no longer be able to repeat Coalition Government press releases in news bulletins. And Newscrap would no longer be able to make up stuff.

  3. I realise that thanks Nicholas. My issue/initial reaction stems from my experience that people who call themselves ‘libertarian-left’ actually mean they’re more Labor-right, and the ‘libertarian’ extends to deregulation, free trade and privatisation.

  4. The opera house thing.

    Should have been left to the board. I can understand that some events are advertised there, but i’d draw the line at something commercial or so firmly oriented at gambling as a fwarking horse race.

    But the worst of this was Alan Jones, his truly despicable behavior, and how the politicians caved in so completely and quickly. FFS, he is a nasty little grub with a sense of entitlement. Validating his perception of power particularly after he had gone so over the top in his treatment of the head of the opera house board is the absolute worst thing the NSW PM could have done. The NSW ALP didn’t exactly cover themselves in glory on this either, but the main responsibility for feeding the grub lies with the Premier.

  5. The Daily Telecrap, in an article date “October 9”, is promoting the “Great Race”.

    “A plan to project the colours and numbers of horses taking part in the world’s richest race on turf, plus an image of The Everest trophy, onto the sails of the iconic building has been hijacked by bitter debate about the role the Opera House should play in promoting one of Sydney’s biggest events, with culture warriors trying their best to paint the sports promotion as a commercial advertising or gambling deal.”

    What? “trying their best to paint the sports promotion as a commercial advertising or gambling deak”? WTF else would it be?

    Won’t bother linking.

  6. Just heard the word that the Liberals have started head counting in NSW. Certain elements are looking to see if they can get the numbers to roll Berejiklian.
    Outrage over the Jones fracas apparently is fuelling this move. Plus of course her perceived weakness as a result of the continuing fallout.
    Will keep you posted as more comes to light.

  7. Robert Ball says:
    Tuesday, October 9, 2018 at 12:32 am
    Just heard the word that the Liberals have started head counting in NSW. Certain elements are looking to see if they can get the numbers to roll Berejiklian.

    Cheers, Robert. Liberal leadership has a short season these days.

  8. Just heard a bit more. Two people want the job, no surprises really as to who’s counting heads.
    Dominic Perrottet and Andrew Constance!!!!!!

  9. Robert Ball @ #613 Monday, October 8th, 2018 – 11:32 pm

    Just heard the word that the Liberals have started head counting in NSW. Certain elements are looking to see if they can get the numbers to roll Berejiklian.
    Outrage over the Jones fracas apparently is fuelling this move. Plus of course her perceived weakness as a result of the continuing fallout.
    Will keep you posted as more comes to light.

    Will they fix the Opera House nonsense if successful?

  10. Just did the compass thingy Eco -5.75 Soc -3.85 Whatever!
    And am wondering if I’ve ever experienced such an aggressive polarising right side of politics in my lifetime.
    Ths Libs/Nats were thrown out in both 1972 and 2007. Are we on the cusp of another result at the next election. I’m starting to be of the opinion that the voters of Wentworth are going to provide an accurate indication next week and its not going to make anyone in the Libs particularly happy.
    NSW and Sydney are quite insular, but can’t be ignored because of its population and therefore the number of seats in the Reps. The Eastern suburbs of Sydney even more insular.
    Outside of thd Melbourne Carnival and to a lesser extent the Slipper, how many people actively care about the Everest. Berejiklian/Jones/Morrison have read this issue with blinkers. Jones has now made this Opera House/Everest thing a genuine Wentworth election issue with ramifications for the next Federal election.
    The fibros/weatherboard and iron mob are going to harshy punish Berejiklian and Morrison for their willingness to jump on the brash Eastern suburbs brand of money. And the Eastern Suburbs brand of money won’t want to be associated with MBJ wannabes. Just not bridge club types really.
    It also become very quiet for many of the Federal Libs. I wonder how the exit strategies are progressing?
    The next big event is not the Everest, its the Wentworth!

  11. Greensborough Growler says Monday, October 8, 2018 at 4:53 pm

    Offsets can work for some people. But, it’s an operational account and my observation is that savings tend to be eroded over time through slack personal financial management. Most Banks charge an annual fee of approximately $400 for this type of facility. Re-draw works because you put a lump sum in to the actual loan and if you maintain your payments at the same level, it will enable people to pay off their loan more quickly. Being able to re-draw up to the amount that the loan should be at is a good facility. However, most Banks don’t allow re-draw on fixed rate loans during the fixed period.

    You can do both. Pay your salary into an offset account and use that for day to day spending, while putting your savings into your mortgage. If you’re disciplined enough to pay off your credit card every month, then use a fee free credit card whenever possible. That means your money stays in your offset account that bit longer, reducing your mortgage interest payments even more (almost like negative interest on the credit card).

    Some banks may charge for an offset account. On the other hand, they may also have bundles that include fee free credit cards, offset account and reduced interest for a yearly fee. Shop around and do the sums.

    It’s worth checking if there are limits on the redraw facility on your mortgage (e.g. for redraws per year).

  12. Observer says Monday, October 8, 2018 at 4:28 pm

    Meanwhile in the economic powerhouses of China and India

    The summary is that youth has it!!!

    China’s former one child policy means they’re going to hit demographic issues soon enough.
    From https://nordic.businessinsider.com/china-demographic-time-bomb-one-child-limit-2018-8?r=US&IR=T

    About 25% of China’s population is expected to be at least 60 years old by 2030, a notable increase compared to the roughly 13% of citizens who were 60 or older in 2010.

  13. Nicholas says Monday, October 8, 2018 at 4:55 pm

    A UBI would likely be highly inflationary because it has no counter-cyclical component. The government’s spending on a UBI would be constant instead of rising and falling in response to private sector spending. A UBI (if set at a high enough level) would likely induce a significant number of people to leave the workforce (indeed for many UBI advocates this is an explicit goal of a UBI). If the workforce shrinks, output falls. If total spending stays the same because the government is spending a constant sum on a UBI, inflation ensues.
    snip

    You make some interesting points.

    The NPR PlanetMoney podcast had a bit of a look at Modern Monetary Theory the other week. You can see the transcript, or download the audio at https://www.npr.org/templates/transcript/transcript.php?storyId=652001941

    I still need to be convinced, if only for the reason that increasing taxation to control inflation, while fine in theory, is problematic politically. Of course, you could allow an independent authority, like the RBA, to set taxes. But, that opens up a whole load of other issues on who pays the tax, the progressiveness and regressiveness of the tax system, and the use of incentives within the tax system in aid of public or economic policy (e.g. accelerated depreciation provisions, incentives to invest in the arts).

  14. Well on the ABC today I heard the impossible 9also very,very triple by 10 scary (if you are Brazilian anyway)

    They were discussing the probable new president of Brazil. Fran said “Brazil’s Trump” and the guest replied “Unfair to Trump” and THEN described the full horror of this guy. He makes Duterte look like a bleeding heart progressive. He supports murder, rape, military coups, torture, women at home not at work and whipping gays.

    Brazil is not some minor nation. This guy is REALLY, REALLY scary.

  15. Morning all.
    More on the government’s argument that they will only consider emissions reduction if it doesn’t increase the cost of electricity.
    What if there is a proposal for say 35% renewable energy, with a cost reduction of $5 per MWhr. All figures are purely nominal.

    But the government’s coal friends respond with a proposal for new coal power with a $10 reduction. What does the government support then?

  16. As someone on the periphery of the racing industry, I am totally opposed to this
    crass use of the Opera House to advertise what is basically an artificial-icon horse race. If Racing NSW wants to invent a race to try to rival Victoria Racing’s Melbourne Cup race, then it can do it without co-opting a public icon for its own purposes.

    It is a bad move on Racing NSW’s part, and is backfiring in their face, predictably. This race does nothing for the bit players in the industry and caters to an obscene sense of entitlement prevalent in the rich and inclusive. It pays nothing back to the lower down owners, trainers and workers, the lesser grade horses and the country and bush clubs who give the rich and exclusive the base on which to play their games.

    It does nothing to address the issue of retraining and rehoming of retired racehorses, which is the biggest issue the industry faces right now.

    Most horses retire from the track with 10 to 15 years of useful life left to live, and the racing industry must take responsibility for them, as I said before, by a levy of 1% on racing gambling wagers. The punters owe the horses that.

    By the way, how much is Racing NSW and the Everest event paying for the use of the Opera House sails?

    Steve777 @ #608 Monday, October 8th, 2018 – 10:53 pm

    The Daily Telecrap, in an article date “October 9”, is promoting the “Great Race”.

    “A plan to project the colours and numbers of horses taking part in the world’s richest race on turf, plus an image of The Everest trophy, onto the sails of the iconic building has been hijacked by bitter debate about the role the Opera House should play in promoting one of Sydney’s biggest events, with culture warriors trying their best to paint the sports promotion as a commercial advertising or gambling deal.”

    What? “trying their best to paint the sports promotion as a commercial advertising or gambling deak”? WTF else would it be?

    Won’t bother linking.

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