No Newspoll this week, which is holding back for the resumption of parliament next week. However, we do have a new Victorian state poll out from ReachTEL, which you can read about in the post directly below this one, along with an update of my poll aggregation from the state. The Guardian should bring us results from Essential Research’s regular fortnightly federal poll overnight tomorrow. Also on the polling front:
• The Fairfax papers have reported state breakdowns aggregated from the last three monthly Ipsos polls, which mix one poll from before the leadership coup, one from the immediate lead-up to it, and one from a month after. This shows Labor leading 52-48 in New South Wales (53-47 in the previous quarter), 56-44 in Victoria (unchanged), 52-48 in Queensland (unchanged) and 51-49 in Western Australia (an unusual 53-47 to the Coalition last time), while the Coalition leads 51-48 in South Australia (52-48 to Labor last time).
• The Guardian reports on another poll in Wentworth, conducted for the Refugee Council of Australia, which I’m going to assume was a ReachTEL although the report doesn’t say. This one is particularly interesting in providing two-party results for Liberal-versus-Phelps as well as Liberal-versus-Labor. This suggests Phelps will win 53-47 if only she can get ahead of Labor. However, the primary votes suggest she has a hurdle to clear, with Dave Sharma (Liberal) on 38.1%, Tim Murray (Labor) on 24.5%, Kerryn Phelps (independent) on 15.9% and others in single digits (there may be an undecided component in the mix of perhaps around 5% or 6% as well). The Liberal-versus-Labor result is consistent with earlier polling in showing it to be extemely close: 50-50 in this case. However, as with the previous polls, this is based on Labor receiving around two-third of preferences from mostly conservative independent candidates, which seems a bit much. The sample for the poll was 870; no field work date is provided. UPDATE: Ben Raue has provided the full numbers. After inclusion of a forced response follow-up for the 4.8% undecided, the primary votes are Sharma 39.9%, Murray 25.0%, Phelps 17.3%, Greens 9.1%, Heath 3.6%. Respondents were also asked how they had voted in 2016, and the responses are fairly well in line with the actual result.
Also on Wentworth, my guide to the by-election has been expanded and updated. Antony Green’s guide offers a particularly useful survey of the how-to-vote card situation that makes use of the term “virtue signalling”. Joe Hildebrand of the Daily Telegraph has taken aim at the Greens for putting Labor ahead of Kerryn Phelps – which, he correctly notes, reduces her chances of overtaking Labor and making the final count, at which she would receive a stronger flow of preferences than Labor and thus stand a better chance of defeating the Liberals. But as Antony Green also rightly notes, “Green voters are a tough flock to herd”.
Moo 🙂
Reposting from the previous thread.
Without wanting to take sides in the “closest to the pin” argument, I would like to point out these excerpts from the FAQ on the Political Compass.
https://www.politicalcompass.org/faq#faq23
So the centre (0,0) does not necessarily represent the average Australian voter. I wonder where the bulk of Australian voters lie on this map?
Unfortunately they also say this.
https://www.politicalcompass.org/faq#faq7
I’m not sure what to make of this. It must be difficult to decide if your personal score means anything if you don’t know who you are comparing it with.
It seems they score me close to Bernie Sanders. I would rate Bernie a fair way to the left of me economically (I support single payer healthcare as the Americans say, but I’m against protectionism). I definitely wouldn’t call myself a socialist, as Bernie does (although I suspect the definition of socialist is a little different in the US compared to the rest of the world).
Millennial, thank you for the work you put into collating the Political Compass scores.
It would be interesting to see the central tendencies of various nations shown on the political compass.
a r says Sunday, October 7, 2018 at 9:10 pm
That’s unfair. You’re ignoring the work of ISTJ’s the world over. 🙂
Taz @ #4 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 8:15 pm
I second that. Does anyone know how to do a heat map.
Taz @ #4 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 6:15 pm
From me as well.
BK @ #5 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 8:17 pm
They are on their website. This is one of them.
With the prevalence of bad economic ideas over the past generation. The perpetuation of trickle down nonsense. The perpetuation of the idea that a (Federal) government budget is like a household budget. The obsession with tax cuts for business and the failure to value the economic value of research, public transport and a host of other utter wrongness, I have no respect for 0,0.
Its a spectrum of ideas. To one side lays sanity, progress, fairness and an understanding that technology is at the core of wealth. On the other side lays selfishness, greed, and ignorance.
So I’ve no truck with the idea that the “center” is in any way “sensible”. It isn’t. Its just an average between sanity and madness.
From Previous thread:
WeWantPaul @ #1575 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 8:01 pm
Yeah, so the people who created the political compass quiz engineered in so that anybody who tried it with even the most vaguely-defined left-wing sympathies would always find themselves deep in the bottom-left quadrant; then tell said person that the main centre-left political party (be that UK Labour, the ALP, the Democrats etc.) are too “neoliberal”, both parties are the same and they should vote small left-wing parties.
See:
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Political_Compass
Doesn’t inspire confidence in the rest of the world, that graph.
An addendum to my post showing nations on the Political Compass. The chart is labelled “EU Political Compass 2012”.
More info here: https://www.politicalcompass.org/euchart
Each quadrant of the Political Compass graph contains a great variety of views across a range of nations and from the time of Gandhi to the present day. The graph is not limited to Australia in 2018. Being at the centre of the graph doesn’t mean that you are at the centre of Australian political beliefs in 2018.
Was Newspoll too bad for LNP this week, is that why it couldn’t be arsed to do a poll?
Zoidlord:
If they didn’t do a poll, how would they know how bad it was for the LNP?
Zoidlord @ #15 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 8:29 pm
William Bowe suggested a couple of days ago that this being an ‘off week’ (my words for no sitting parliament) there wouldn’t be a Newspoll. The absence of evidence to the contrary is all we got.
The ABC political compass from the last election had the greens and ALP in the same quadrant (Greens obviously deeper) and the L-NP in the middle of the opposite quadrant. The idea that the ALP are closer to the L-NP than GRN is patent nonsense.
https://votecompass.abc.net.au
Late Riser:
It is what it is. An interesting way of roughly gauging your own place on the broad political spectrum and comparing it that of others, and little more than that. Like any survey of this nature, its far from perfect. Best not to overthink it.
Millennial @ #11 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 8:24 pm
Back to my first reaction then. Thanks. Hmm. It still might serve as exercise in political persuasion, which knowingly could be enjoyed.
GG, It is interesting to note that you totally disagree with Sister Monica Cavanagh, the president of Catholic Religious Australia, and Australian Catholic Bishops Conference president Archbishop Mark Coleridge in their response, published on 31 August 2018.
To quote https://catholicoutlook.org/the-catholic-church-response-to-the-royal-commission/
“Catholic leaders have today announced they accept 98 per cent of the recommendations of the Royal Commission into Institutional Responses to Child Sexual Abuse and have vowed that the Church’s shameful history will never be repeated.
Josephite Sister Monica Cavanagh, the president of Catholic Religious Australia, and Australian Catholic Bishops Conference president Archbishop Mark Coleridge have today released a joint response, expressing their deep sorrow that vulnerable children were abused, weren’t believed and weren’t supported when seeking justice.
READ: The ACBC and CRA Response to the Royal Commission
Sr Monica said the Royal Commission “was an important and necessary period for the Australian community” and expressed gratitude to the survivors “whose courage in coming forward and telling their stories will mean that the Church and society will be safer in the future”.
“The process is already under way to reform the Church’s practices to ensure that safeguarding is integral in all that we do as part of our ministry and outreach in the community,” Sr Monica said.
“Making the Church a safer place for our children and vulnerable persons is at the heart of our commitment to mission.”
Archbishop Coleridge said many changes had been made since the horrific reality of child sexual abuse became known, but they were sometimes too slow and too timid.
“Too many priests, brothers, sisters and lay people in Australia failed in their duty to protect and honour the dignity of all, including, and especially, the most vulnerable – our children and our young people,” Archbishop Coleridge said.
“Many bishops failed to listen, failed to believe, and failed to act. Those failures allowed some abusers to offend again and again, with tragic and sometimes fatal consequences. The bishops and leaders of religious orders pledge today: Never again.”
Well GG, for the record, who is bullshitting, you or them?
It is also worth noting that the number of those identifying as Roman Catholic in Aus fell by 10% to 22.6% of the population, between the 2011 and 2016 censuses, while us ‘no religionists’ grew by 33% to 30.1% of the population over the same period. Rational people now outnumber papists by 33%. We are a bloody sight more average than you are.
I’ve been around the political compass for years. It suggests that there is some natural centre, when there isn’t. Australia isn’t a socially conservative country, nor is it fundamentally right on economics either. Also, the definitions are very academic …
I would dare say this idea that all of Europe are right of centre countries is kind of stupid.
It’s a fun thing, but it’s hardly representative. FTR..
E: -5.4
S: -6
GG says: Waste of time. Just enriched lawyers.
Sister Monica Cavanagh, the president of Catholic Religious Australia, said the Royal Commission “was an important and necessary period for the Australian community” and expressed gratitude to the survivors “whose courage in coming forward and telling their stories will mean that the Church and society will be safer in the future”.
China economy development…
…As higher US interest rates and fears of a trade war piles pressure on economies around the world, China’s central bank said on Sunday that it was cutting the reserve requirement ratios (RRRs) by 1% from 15 October to lower financing costs and spur growth in the world’s second-biggest economy.
The reserve cut, the fourth by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) this year, came after Beijing pledged to speed up plans to invest billions of dollars in infrastructure projects as the economy shows signs of cooling further….
However, it will also raise fears that Beijing – under pressure from the higher dollar and tariffs – is again delaying plans to reduce huge debt in the Chinese economy in favour of a short-term fix to stabilise growth.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/07/china-pumps-109bn-into-economy-as-trade-war-bites-on-growth
Pakistan batting first against Langer’s XI – 0/199 at tea
Reposting from last thread:
“Andrew Earlwood
Have I missed your response on high speed rail?”
No Cud Chewer, you haven’t missed anything. I’ve just had a very busy and tiring week and there is actually a lot of good stuff you posted for me to unpack and I just haven’t been up to it. I’ll try to reengage on this important topic sometime later this week.
GG says: Waste of time. Just enriched lawyers
Australian Catholic Bishops Conference president Archbishop Mark Coleridge said many changes had been made since the horrific reality of child sexual abuse became known, as a result of the Royal Commission, but they were sometimes too slow and too timid.
“Too many priests, brothers, sisters and lay people in Australia failed in their duty to protect and honour the dignity of all, including, and especially, the most vulnerable – our children and our young people,” Archbishop Coleridge said.
“Many bishops failed to listen, failed to believe, and failed to act. Those failures allowed some abusers to offend again and again, with tragic and sometimes fatal consequences. The bishops and leaders of religious orders pledge today: Never again.”
GG disagrees. Careful GG, you may be excommunicated, and then what would become of your immortal soul?
From cricinfo
[This is the first time ever, since records began, that Australia haven’t taken a wicket in 55 overs in the first innings of a test.]
Your Political Compass
Economic Left/Right: -8.88
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -6.46
Giving victims of abuse the courage to speak is the commission’s enduring legacy.
I do like the Political Compass take on spelling:
FAQ 29.
When are you guys gonna learn to spell?
This grievance comes from pernickety people who have leapt into attack without checking the FAQs … and without even the remotest realisation that British and American words are sometimes spelt differently. They should have travelled more! We’ve been at the centre of some sulphurous rancour, but we’re not going to take offence or harbour any grievances. The catalogue of their ill-informed certainties won’t colour this organisation’s programme. It’s a grey area anyway. And we don’t want to labour the point. Except to add that most of these cavillous correspondents seem to feel that they have a licence or a blank cheque for a level of rudeness that more civilised souls wouldn’t have dreamt of. In response, we nevertheless practise polite dialogue, enabling them to recognise that the error is entirely their own. (We manoeuvre them towards the Oxford English Reference Dictionary, which is also an encyclopaedia.) This leaves them quite defenceless, which may account for the fact that these less than honourable individuals virtually never apologise.”. Never has FUUS been spelled out so politely.
I must say I’m surprised that the Demon Peter Siddle isn’t ripping through the Paki top order – I thought his selection by Langer was bordering on genius
Shellbell
The wicket is a road. We will find out a lot about the new Australian batting lineup when they get a turn, sometime on Tuesday I suspect.
Paul Syvret wrote for Murdoch organ the Courier Mail for many years, though it was clear he was having difficulty with the Murdoch culture of lies, smear and demonising minorities. So he quit.
He now tweets..
Some personal news: the next stage of life and career begins for me tomorrow helping fight the good fight via a media role with the CFMEU in Queensland. It’s time to turn years of words into more concrete action and advocacy. #UnionStrong #ChangeTheRules
So, after reading the Rationalwiki analysis am I to conclude that the Political Compass has even less credibility than MBTI?
Having said that, Rationalwiki’s description of the four dichotomies in MBTI doesn’t match the descriptions in their accompanying chart.
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Myers-Briggs_Type_Indicator
From the previous thread:
If you buy at 2c and sell at 4c the “margin” (as you call it) is actually 100%. With primary school level maths skills like you just displayed, your future seems to be anything but secure.
The Chaser
Verified account @chaser
2h2 hours ago
NSW Government orders Opera House to install pokies after realising it could turn a quick buck https://chaser.com.au/national/premier-orders-opera-house-to-install-pokies-after-realising-it-could-turn-a-quick-buck/ …
Millenial
If it’s not too late can you add my PolCompass score to the chart:
Economic: -6.63
Social: -4.51
It is like laissez faire economic theory. It only starts working when it is completely 100% achieved. Langer will only start winning when every NSWelshman, every single one, is out of the team and rightfully replaced by a sandgroper.
But I am sure the high-performance manager director executive Howard needs some more zeros on his pay packet. He seems to get the best out of players (opposition players)
Rossmcg
In 2014 we could not trouble Pakistan batsmen and then we could not play their spin.
Economic Left/Right: 0.88
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -2.56
Looks like our glorious Pakistani lads are giving the Underarm Cheats a pizzling.
Paki, Paki, Paki, Oi, Oi, Oi.
I don’t think they will be breaking any attendance records in Dubai
Some months ago when I posted the story of a Woman prosecuted and sentenced for killing another woman GG called me misogynist. To this day I do not understand how it is so and how it will equate with centre.
Apparently the Opera House is a thing in equestrian circles
DG@10:05pm
Get a grip.
Evening all.
Re NewsPoll timing, KB did a detailed post a year or two ago. It is always run in time for a parliamentary sitting, never the week before.
1/200 and MMarsh hasnt bowled?
MMarsh did drop Hafeez on the fence, however. Maybe he can relieve Siddle, who has toiled manfully
There is a hole in those bucket hands, dear Liza