No Newspoll this week, which is holding back for the resumption of parliament next week. However, we do have a new Victorian state poll out from ReachTEL, which you can read about in the post directly below this one, along with an update of my poll aggregation from the state. The Guardian should bring us results from Essential Research’s regular fortnightly federal poll overnight tomorrow. Also on the polling front:
• The Fairfax papers have reported state breakdowns aggregated from the last three monthly Ipsos polls, which mix one poll from before the leadership coup, one from the immediate lead-up to it, and one from a month after. This shows Labor leading 52-48 in New South Wales (53-47 in the previous quarter), 56-44 in Victoria (unchanged), 52-48 in Queensland (unchanged) and 51-49 in Western Australia (an unusual 53-47 to the Coalition last time), while the Coalition leads 51-48 in South Australia (52-48 to Labor last time).
• The Guardian reports on another poll in Wentworth, conducted for the Refugee Council of Australia, which I’m going to assume was a ReachTEL although the report doesn’t say. This one is particularly interesting in providing two-party results for Liberal-versus-Phelps as well as Liberal-versus-Labor. This suggests Phelps will win 53-47 if only she can get ahead of Labor. However, the primary votes suggest she has a hurdle to clear, with Dave Sharma (Liberal) on 38.1%, Tim Murray (Labor) on 24.5%, Kerryn Phelps (independent) on 15.9% and others in single digits (there may be an undecided component in the mix of perhaps around 5% or 6% as well). The Liberal-versus-Labor result is consistent with earlier polling in showing it to be extemely close: 50-50 in this case. However, as with the previous polls, this is based on Labor receiving around two-third of preferences from mostly conservative independent candidates, which seems a bit much. The sample for the poll was 870; no field work date is provided. UPDATE: Ben Raue has provided the full numbers. After inclusion of a forced response follow-up for the 4.8% undecided, the primary votes are Sharma 39.9%, Murray 25.0%, Phelps 17.3%, Greens 9.1%, Heath 3.6%. Respondents were also asked how they had voted in 2016, and the responses are fairly well in line with the actual result.
Also on Wentworth, my guide to the by-election has been expanded and updated. Antony Green’s guide offers a particularly useful survey of the how-to-vote card situation that makes use of the term “virtue signalling”. Joe Hildebrand of the Daily Telegraph has taken aim at the Greens for putting Labor ahead of Kerryn Phelps – which, he correctly notes, reduces her chances of overtaking Labor and making the final count, at which she would receive a stronger flow of preferences than Labor and thus stand a better chance of defeating the Liberals. But as Antony Green also rightly notes, “Green voters are a tough flock to herd”.
Ven @ #46 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 7:09 pm
Sorry.
Since the underarm incident, for me Australia has been the cricket equivalent of Collingwood or Manly.
Religion changes between censuses. Note where Scummo’s lot sit (1.1%).
Also note that No Religion is easily the fastest growing group, and that it now outnumbers the adherents of the RPPS by 33% (30.1% of the population vs 22.6%). Virtually all of the christian cults are decreasing, the RPPS by 10% in their proportion in 5 years.
2016 2011
________________________________________
No religion – 30.1% Catholic – 25.3%
Catholic – 22.6% No religion – 22.3%
Anglican – 13.3% Anglican – 17.1%
Uniting Church – 3.7% Uniting Church 5.0%
Christian (Not further defined)–2.6% Presbyterian and Reformed – 2.8%
Islam – 2.6% Eastern Orthodox – 2.6%
Buddhism – 2.4% Buddhism – 2.5%
Presbyterian and Reformed – 2.3% Islam 2.2%
Eastern Orthodox – 2.1% Christian(Not further defined) 2.2%
Hinduism – 1.9% Baptist – 1.6%
Baptist – 1.5% Hinduism 1.3%
Pentecostal – 1.1% Lutheran – 1.2%
Lutheran – 0.7% Pentecostal 1.1%
Sikhism – 0.5% Judaism – 0.5%
Other Protestant – 0.5% Jehovah’s Witnesses – 0.4%
Judaism – 0.4% Sikhism – 0.3%
This test match has to be the most dismal professional sporting event on the planet this year.
Andrew ok. Just bear in mind I don’t read every page 🙂
Not the most flattering of pictures of Cormann in this article:https://www.afr.com/news/bill-shorten-sharpens-labors-pitch-with-new-manifesto-for-the-next-election-20181007-h16bfj?&utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=nc&eid=socialn:fac-14omn0053-optim-nnn:nonpaid-25/06/2014-social_traffic-all-organicpost-nnn-afr-o&campaign_code=nocode&promote_channel=social_facebook
I followed the recent England-India Test cricket series, but didn’t even realise this Pakistan-Australia Test was on today! And I have been thinking about cricket because local club cricket started yesterday.
Australia (Lyon) took a wicket in the 63rd over! Raucous applause from the spectator?
And I see Imam-ul-Haq who went out for 76 is Inzamam’s nephew. “Aye he were a player.”
Dan Gulberry @ 10.00pm
Since GG works successfully in an industry very much focussed on %s, and since he often uses nuanced language, your comment correcting his mathematics is not really needed.
I suspect the “No Religion” stats are higher than reported. I think I put CoE on the census as that’s how I was baptized, but no religion would better reflect my actual beliefs.
As long as Warner is not playing i’m happy.
Me either!
And if that photo sprocket posted is any indication, neither did people in Dubai!
Watcha @ #57 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 7:45 pm
The difference between 2c and 4c is 100%. Always was. Always will be.
GG is a salesperson. His primary skill is understanding what his clients need and setting them up with that. For mathematics he can use a calculator, or spreadsheet.
Since he feels fit to pass judgement on every one else on here and posts snide remarks about everyone and everything, your defence of him is not really needed.
Moi
Economic Left/Right: -5.88
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44
I’m a cricket tragic.
Am a big fan of Starc and Lyon. Dunno why Siddle is there. I’ve always like Tim Paine and was saddened when he was so badly injured a few years back and am happy he made it back into the side, he has talent with the bat and doesn’t surrender his wicket easily … and a far better glove man than his predecessor (who was ordinary with the gloves and bat).
Can’t work out why Holland is there, or Finch (but we’ll wait and see on the latter).
This series will be a test of guts for the Aussies since 2 of our 3 best bowlers are injured and our best batsman is also MIA.
I too am glad Warner isn’t there — I suspect he was behind the ball-tampering.
The girls’ team have been the saviour of Aussie cricket the ast few months.
Dan
No Dan. It was a GG joke. He knows %s perfectly well.
He was fishing Dan, and he caught you. It was a GG joke, Joyce.
I do take your point about the first part of your last paragraph and I accept it 100%.
Cheers
I gather someone here (Millenial?) is gathering PB Political Compass scores. If that’s still going here are my numbers:
Economic Left/Right: -5.25
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -4.92
That’s about the middle of the bottom left (green) square.
I would think my outlook would fit comfortably in Whitlam’s Labor Party. In terms if today, I’m left of Shorten’s Labor economically, probably about the middle of Labor socially but more socially conservative than today’s Greens.
Reading this blog, it becomes obvious that its proceedings consist mostly of the same gaggle of self-appointed moral invigilators ganging up on the designated Target For Tonight for sins – sometimes real, but mostly imagined – against Labor, womankind, homosexuals, or for promoting Trumpism, religion, or otherwise unapproved thoughts.
The ganging-up consists of direct but usually unimaginative abuse of the alleged perpetrator, which is bad enough, or loud theatrical whispering among gang members disparaging the victim’s character, credentials or improper moral positioning, which is worse.
Note that the gang are, however, always the first and loudest to squeal about being bullied when someone decides to get stuck into them for a change.
JBIshop to make a speech
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-fourth-industrial-revolution-will-change-the-world-julie-bishop-20181007-p5089s.html
Must be getting ready to challenge for leadership again.
Invigilators of the World Unite.
Economic Left/Right: -8.75
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -7.54
BB @ 12.02am
Well at last you’ve sussed that out. Took a fair while but congrats, you finally see what most lurkers have watched for years. I have always seen it as bullying by the IGOEC (In Group of the Echo Chamber).
Eco….-5.74
Soc….-8.88
@Jen
“Am a big fan of Starc and Lyon. Dunno why Siddle is there. I’ve always like Tim Paine and was saddened when he was so badly injured a few years back and am happy he made it back into the side, he has talent with the bat and doesn’t surrender his wicket easily … and a far better glove man than his predecessor (who was ordinary with the gloves and bat).
Can’t work out why Holland is there, or Finch (but we’ll wait and see on the latter).
This series will be a test of guts for the Aussies since 2 of our 3 best bowlers are injured and our best batsman is also MIA.
I too am glad Warner isn’t there — I suspect he was behind the ball-tampering.
The girls’ team have been the saviour of Aussie cricket the ast few months.”
Siddle is in the team because all the other quicks with sufficient experience are injuried and he is a supremely fit guy who can toil all day in oppressive conditions on a flat track: which is what he did last night, finishing the day with 1-25.
Given that Australia has two world championships in the next 18 months in the shorter form of the game I do not understand why Finch is not made the permanent captain of the ODI and Twenty/20 teams: build a specialist team around him and I reckon we would have a scent chance at both. Why the selectors decided at age 31 to make him a test player when he doesn’t even play much shield cricket – especially as an opener – is a mystery. The same goes for Head as well. Playing Holland in any team above 2nd grade club cricket is yet another mystery.
Khawaja is picked out of position again: to get the best out of him he should be picked at No.3 on a permanent basis. I know that he hasn’t played much cricket of late and suffered a concussion whilst fielding in the warm up game, but I’d still pick Renshaw to open with Byrne – who is not even touring. Nor is Handscomb. Given how bare the cupboard is both should be in the team.
Langer should not be the coach: Gillespie should be. Given the available player list, my team would be:
Byrne
Renshaw
Khawaja
S Marsh
Handscomb
M Marsh
Paine
Starc
Lyon
Siddle
Anyone but Holland.
Just saw the stumps score – 3/255 – Pakistan must have slowed down a lot after 205 opening.
The ReachTEL Poll in Victoria – I don’t see the sort of angst that would cause a change of government and I expect Labor will win. But as this article notes – in 2010 it looked like Labor was cruising right until the last few days. Though that was a government seeking a fourth term after 11 years which is a bit different.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/reachtel-poll-bad-news-for-coalition-it-could-be-worse-20181007-p50888.html
And I see the property spivs are doing their work on their Liberal mates.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/alps-policy-would-threaten-property-rebound/news-story/a8da4cfc73f8cbcc76e85a26021e73b6
But the first comment (by Ingrid) was interesting, given this is The Australian –
Fear of Labor’s removal of negative gearing wouldn’t be contributing to recent reductions in home values. If anything it would have been having the reverse effect given the grandfathering, now presumably being a good time to exploit this skewed tax treatment of real estate compared to other forms of investment. (So no, those 1.3 m people who already avail themselves of this won’t be “punished” either.)
Frydenberg seems to be talking at cross-purposes – surely Labor’s plans won’t reduce the number of first home buyers entering the market, which is what he is implying?
I am on the train with my son on the way to hospital for his first operation. Wish us luck!
Oh yeah and isn’t it just the cutest thing how Bushfire Bill pretends to be not one of the In Crowd himself? Lulz.
Good luck c@t
Morning all and good luck Cat. Our new PM is such a good ordinary bloke we forget he was an ad spin doctor before politics. This story reminds us why.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/major-climate-report-expected-to-call-for-coal-shut-down-by-2050-20181007-p508a2.html
And ending coal is not the only front we are dragging our feet on for emission reduction action. Our transport policy is – what policy?
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/federal/electric-cars-would-save-lives-and-cut-costs-but-australians-risk-being-left-behind-20180914-p503th.html
RR,
Do you reckon the scales might be falling from the eyes of the great unwashed?
I read a really good article this morning in the English version of The Guardian which analysed conservative versus progressive election media messaging and in general, which I will link later when I get home, however the basic point was that progressives need to get better at using machine learning to target voters because the conservatives are already way ahead of us with this.
This is also the category I put the Frydebudget and ScuMo messaging into, don’t tell the truth just go for emotional trauma trigger points. And Housing is a biggie.
Thanks Soc and Andrew_E! Smallish one today, bigger one next month. 🙂
RR and Cat
There have been multiple scare campaigns by vested interests already.
There was a story last week of how the RC might lead to a credit crunch and even recession. The implication was somehow that punishing the banks would cause reduced lending and crash the economy. Bollocks. It is dodgy lending in the first place that crashes the economy.
As for the follow up to the RC, the solution is simple. Making the banks pay a huge fine only punishes shareholders, meaning every Australian worker with super. The solution is to (finally) enforce the law and jail bankers who commit crimes. And make them repay their bonuses as profits of crime. No risk of crashing the economy, justice done, and an effective deterrent.
I have said before there is something seriously wrong with academic workloads and management in Australian universities. Bullying, harrassement, sexism, cronyism, misallocation of funds and academic misconduct (plagiarism, falsification or claiming subordinates work as your own) are becom8ng common under the pressure. No government (or union) has dealt with this for a decade. Breakdowns and suicides are resulting.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/education/it-was-meant-as-a-career-boost-now-academics-say-there-s-no-way-out-20180917-p504aa.html
Soc,
It’s the Neoliberalism project writ large. They wanted to infiltrate it into every corner of society and there have been willing participants prepared to go to the front lines while the politicians pushed through the laws and pushed out the propaganda.
Rocket Rocket:
My fairly uninformed reading of the situation from up here in Queensland is about the same as yours. Despite the visceral loathing much of the right have for Andrews, the average punter’s opinion of his government seems to be more along the lines of a shrug and “yeah, they’re alright”, which generally leads to being reelected pretty comfortably. Were the Liberals led by someone a little more likeable and inspiring, Labor would probably have more to worry about, but Guy doesn’t seem to type to be winning over hearts and minds.
The margin is much too narrow for Vic Labor to be growing complacent, but if I were Andrews, I would be wouldn’t be too upset about being in this position a month and a half before an election.
William reports, above, that in Wentworth “Greens [are] putting Labor ahead of Kerryn Phelps.”
Where is the outrage from the Greens haters on this blog? Surely this must a be a Greens ruse? But wait, Phelps is preferencing the Liberals. This may have something to do with it. A united progressive left, hard to beat.
Vote1julia,
I only get outraged with the Greens when they do outrageous things. 🙂
Soc,
Churn and Burn is the Neoliberalism motto.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Racing NSW chief executive Peter V’landys has revealed he originally wanted to use the Sydney Harbour Bridge to promote the race, but the state government had other ideas. They’re all diving for cover now.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/opera-house-promotion-was-state-government-s-idea-says-racing-nsw-boss-20181007-p5089e.html
Any Marks wonders whether this opera house fiasco will turn out to be one of those seminal election-changing moments.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/so-close-to-the-action-but-missing-the-vibe-20181007-p5088w.html
Deborah Snow unloads on Alan Jones and his on-air bullying.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/alan-jones-bullying-of-worst-kind-diane-smith-gander-20181007-p508ab.html
As does Michelle Grattan.
https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-the-uncivil-mr-jones-104549
Nicole Hasham writes that a major climate report will say coal-generated electricity must be phased out globally by 2050 if the world is to avoid the most catastrophic impacts of global warming, including the total destruction of the Great Barrier Reef. How will the RWNJs in the government react to this?
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/major-climate-report-expected-to-call-for-coal-shut-down-by-2050-20181007-p508a2.html
Tony Walker tells us why it’s no ordinary election in Wentworth.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/wentworth-this-is-no-ordinary-byelection-20181005-p507w5.html
Meanwhile the Liberals have launched a sharply negative attack on the independent Wentworth candidate Kerryn Phelps, distributing tens of thousands of leaflets in Wentworth warning of “uncertainty” and suggesting that a vote for Phelps would usher in a Labor government.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/07/wentworth-byelection-liberals-attack-kerryn-phelps-with-nasty-pamphlets
Bank chief executives this week will face a public grilling that is likely to scrutinise how a sales-driven culture was allowed to take hold in the industry.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/big-four-bank-chiefs-to-face-parliamentary-grilling-20181005-p5081n.html
The chairman of federal parliament’s Standing Committee on Economics, Tim Wilson, has lashed out at the conduct failures of the major banks, saying they must learn from the “reality check” of the Hayne royal commission and change their bonus-led cultures.
https://outline.com/DMesW8
This week’s Urban Wronski is about how it’s business as usual for the banks despite Frydenberg’s faux outrage and finger-wagging.
https://urbanwronski.com/2018/10/07/business-as-usual-for-the-banks-despite-frydenbergs-faux-outrage-and-finger-wagging/
Jennifer Hewett looks into the flaying that Ken Hayne gave ASIC.
https://outline.com/hWkCu6
More signs of Sydney’s public transport being stretched to its limits.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/town-hall-station-overcrowding-to-force-staff-to-slow-access-at-peak-20180921-p5056j.html
In a long and detailed article the AFR explains the mess our energy policy, or lack thereof, has got us into.
https://outline.com/UfHyHR
Greg comments on the tampon tax and the perennial GST fight with the states.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2018/oct/07/axing-the-tampon-tax-seems-a-good-move-but-is-it-the-best-move
Former ABC journalist Toni Hassan tells us what we need in the next leader for the ABC.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/here-s-what-we-need-in-the-next-leader-for-the-abc-20181004-p507rg.html
School curriculum expert Phil Lambert says it’s time to face the fact that students need different skills for a changing world.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/students-need-different-skills-for-a-changing-world-20180927-p5069r.html
Nicole Hemmer explains how the anger building up in women in America is palpable.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/the-anger-voiced-by-american-women-is-deeply-felt-20181005-p507w7.html
Academic Lauren Rosewarne writes that it’s no surprise why women haven’t spoken out about sexual violence. Just look at the Kavanaugh issue, she says.
https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/life-and-relationships/why-don-t-women-report-alleged-abuse-just-look-at-the-kavanaugh-saga-20181007-p5089w.html
The Washington Post says that the Kavanaugh court will be the one conservatives have worked for decades to construct, experts say, with velocity the only question about the Supreme Court’s advance to the right.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/a-whole-new-world-kavanaugh-s-court-will-advance-to-the-right-20181007-p5088t.html
Andrew Gawthorpe says that Republicans might have won a majority in the country’s highest court but it has lost legitimacy at a critical moment.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/07/brett-kavanaugh-victory-high-price-us-supreme-court-republicans
Jill Abramson writes that Brett Kavanaugh’s tenure on the US supreme court will always be tainted by the highly partisan and morally bankrupt process that forced through his US senate confirmation.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/07/thbrett-kavanaugh-travesty-formidable-backlash
How Kavanaugh showed his rage and won.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2018/10/07/how-kavanaugh-won/
Paranoia rules the Oval Office as Donald Trump’s mole hunt turns up empty.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2018/10/05/trump-paranoia-mole-hunt-fails/
A car accident to end all car accidents.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/twenty-dead-after-limousine-crashes-in-new-york-state-20181008-p508ar.html
Kate Aubusson outlines a very disturbing report on drug use by young Australians.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-october-8-2018-20181007-h16bz9.html
The Independent Australia’s contributing editor-at-large Tess Lawrence conducted research in the mid-1990s into the Catholic clergy and the confessional, she organised for researchers to pose as priests, Christian brothers and lay teachers to enter the confessional box to “confess” they had sexually abused children.
https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/pedo-confessional-priests-lawrence-researchers-pose-a-sex-abuser-priests,11972
Today’s nomination for “Arseholes of the Week”.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/business/workplace/melanie-says-she-earned-2-an-hour-and-every-step-she-took-was-tracked-on-an-app-20181006-p5085z.html
Cartoon Corner
OMG! Looks what David Rowe’s come up with.
And he has one on Kavanaugh’s ascension to the SCOTUS.
A couple from Mark David.
From Matt Golding.
Peter Broelman farewells Quentin Kenihan.
More in here.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-october-8-2018-20181007-h16bz9.html
In an article that’s well worth a read.
The Trump family’s craven tax schemes are just more evidence of white privilege
That massive gag reflex felt across so much of the nation with Trump and the GOP forcing the intemperate Judge Kavanaugh down our throats is not just about the Supreme Court.
It is about the continued domination of our political economy by inherited white male privilege and wealth that no matter how badly it behaves publicly has always gotten the best of whatever our society has collectively created because they have always owned it.
This display of white male privilege on steroids comes as the biggest economic challenge facing the nation, indeed the world, is how to deal with the consequences of accelerating wealth inequality and income disparity. We are on our way to creating a kind of 21st century feudalism where a tiny sliver of obscenely rich individuals call the shots and frame it as philanthropy for taking the time to address us.
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/10/trump-familys-craven-tax-schemes-just-evidence-white-privilege/
‘There will be hell to pay’: Former dean of Yale Law School calls Kavanaugh confirmation ‘An American tragedy’
In an op-ed published Saturday by Politico, former Dean of Yale Law School Robert Post called Brett Kavanaugh’s appointment to the U.S. Supreme Court “an American tragedy” writing that the nation’s newest Supreme Court justice is the “black-robed embodiment of raw partisan power inconsistent with any ideal of an impartial judiciary.”
Post described Kavanaugh as a “casual acquaintance,” noting he watched the judge’s testimony before the Senate Judiciary committee last month with “something approaching unbelief.”
“Each and every Republican who votes for Kavanaugh, therefore, effectively announces that they care more about controlling the Supreme Court than they do about the legitimacy of the court itself,” Post wrote. “There will be hell to pay.”
Post warned Kavanaugh’s “very presence” on the Supreme Court “will undermine the court’s claim to legitimacy; it will damage the nation’s commitment to the rule of law.”
“It will be an American tragedy,” he said.
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/10/will-hell-pay-former-dean-yale-law-school-calls-kavanaugh-confirmation-american-tragedy/
ABC RN has run dead on Wentworth by election for the last 4 days.
Is a scare campaign on tax all that Morrison has?
Thanks BK. You don’t know how useful it is to have those links to read here in the hospital as I wait around for my son to come out of surgery. 🙂
Morning all
C@t
All the best for your son!
William Bowe @ #88 Monday, October 8th, 2018 – 7:22 am
Agree it’s a good read.
In the end, whether enough of the moderate Libs of of Wentworth have given up on the Liberal Party will probably decide the outcome.
Lizzie,
A Scare Campaign on Tax plus attempted ownership of Labor’s projects like the NBN and NDIS and Infrastructure.
C@t
My dad had back fusion surgery other day.
Waiting in hospital all day was damn stressful!
Being distracted can help!
I am encouraged that the latest poll on State Victoria shows Andrews Govt ahead of opposition. Hopefully the election outcome will reflect this
Well the anger that American women are experiencing now can be put towards them
Turning out in large numbers and bloody voting in four weeks at
Midterms.
Last State election, I had a huge argument with HO because they insisted on putting independents ahead of the Greens. Just sayin’.