Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

No change in voting intention from the latest Essential poll, which also finds respondents evenly split on the future of the Nauru detention centre.

The Guardian reports the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 53-47. The poll also includes the monthly leadership ratings, which show Scott Morrison leading Bill Shorten 42-27 as preferred prime minister, out from 39-27 a month ago. We will have to wait for the full report later today to see primary votes and approval ratings. The poll also finds 40% in favour of transferring families and children on Nauru to Australia, with 39% opposed; 37% supporting the closure of the Nauru detention centre and transferring those remaining to Australia, with 42% opposed; and 35% in support of keeping them there indefinitely, with 43% opposed. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1025.

UPDATE: Full report here. Both major parties are up a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 38% and Labor to 37%, with the Greens reverting to 10% after a spike to 12% a fortnight ago, and One Nation up two to 7% after dropping three in the last poll. Scott Morrison is up six on approval to 43% and down three on disapproval to 28%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down three to 33% and down two to 45%.

The Guardian report focused on asylum seeker questions, but the other focus for the supplementary questions this week is the media. Thirty-six per cent offered that the government had too much influence on the ABC, 16% not enough, 17% about right and 31% don’t know, with Labor and Greens voters greatly more likely to offer the first response. Forty per cent felt ABC reporting was independent and unbiased and 34% the opposite – Labor and Greens supporters weighed more heavily towards the former, with Coalition supporters evenly split.

Also featured is an occasional “trust in media” question, along with a new question identifying specific news outlets. Despite all the fuss of late, results to both follow the usual patterns: public beats commercial, broadsheet beats tabloid, news beats tabloid, and there’s nothing lower than an “internet blog”. The Australian has a slight edge over the Fairfax papers, which I would hypothesise has something to do with the latter’s move to tabloid.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,060 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Can BREXIT be called off?
    I thought Europe says “Go!” The only thing left is to negotiate a framework for leaving within the next 6 months

    Good luck with that

    Motorways in Kent are being converted to holding areas for heavy vehicles which are expected to bank up while waiting for customs clearance

    Customs will be a growth industry in UK as well as Netherland

  2. a r @ #2051 Friday, October 12th, 2018 – 2:07 am

    C@tmomma @ #2032 Thursday, October 11th, 2018 – 10:07 pm

    Trump’s Contradiction: Assailing ‘Left-Wing Mob’ as Crowd Chants ‘Lock Her Up’

    Are they still doing that one? They’ve had two bloody years to ‘lock her up’.

    I think the relevant expression is “shit or get off the pot”.

    No, a r, they’ve moved onto Herr Drumpf’s latest political bete noir, Dianne Feinstein. A little old 85 year old lady. Trump is inculcating the desire in his followers to acquiesce to locking up political prisoners. Especially if you are female, it seems.

  3. Is Phil Coorey in the AFR losing some of his CPG race calling approach to energy/climate policy?

    Here he channels what the business community is increasingly saying about the Coalition failure:

    “To appease Alan Jones, who complained about the term “dispatchable power”, Morrison and his Energy Minister Angus Taylor, otherwise grown men, talk about delivering “fair dinkum” power and of Taylor really being the minister for low power prices.

    Simplistic language designed to appeal to Percy Punter but which fails to grasp the complex transition under way in the energy sector.


    Taylor had a point when he said that while the major parties may have agreed on the NEG, they still disagreed on the size of its emissions target.

    “There is no room for bipartisanship when we have a 26 per cent [reduction target] and the other side has 45 per cent,” he told the The Australian Financial Review National Energy Summit in Sydney on Wednesday.

    Still, an agreed policy framework in which change would have to be argued through the Parliament would have been a quantum leap on the current shambles.

    The language of simpletons is fine if you feel no need to pay regard to climate change and investment risk.

    It worked before for Tony Abbott but this time might be different. Business and industry are furious at the demise of the NEG. Publicly, their language is diplomatic. Privately, much of it is unprintable.

  4. It would be nice if the federal government were transparent about the purposes of particular taxes e.g. this land tax drives demand for the currency (maintains price stability), deletes some non-government sector spending power in order to create non-inflationary fiscal space for government spending on public goods and services, penalizes speculative investment in land, penalizes hoarding of land, encourages socially and environmentally optimal uses of land.

    Every tax could have a short, clear label like that.

    This income tax reduces inequality of income (which increases social cohesion and reduces the frequency of social ills such as ill health, family breakdown, substance abuse, anti-social behaviour, and crime), serves as an automatic stabilizer (tax receipts fall during a downturn in order to minimize unemployment; tax receipts rise during a boom in order to control inflation), creates some non-inflationary fiscal space for the government’s spending on public goods and services.

    This tobacco tax is designed to discourage smoking and improve public health; ideally we want the receipts from this tax to be zero.

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