BludgerTrack: 53.8-46.2 to Labor

No real change in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week, except that there is now a Morrison-versus-Shorten preferred prime minister trend in business.

BludgerTrack has been updated with the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll, together with the state breakdowns published earlier this week by Ipsos. This yields only the tiniest change on voting intention, and no change whatsoever on the seat projection.

I’ve also made my first effort to reactivate the leadership ratings, which have been dormant since Malcolm Turnbull’s because there has been insufficient data to generate a trend measure for Scott Morrison. This is still the case with his net approval ratings, for which there are only five data points, but there have been two extra points for the preferred prime minister question, which makes all the difference.

As such, the leadership ratings trends available through the full BludgerTrack display (click below) show separate trend measures on the preferred prime minister chart for the Turnbull-versus-Shorten and Morrison-versus-Shorten eras. This demonstrates that Morrison’s lead over Shorten is more or less the same as Turnbull’s was. I have also finally updated Bill Shorten’s net approval trend, which suggests a very slight improvement since the Liberal leadership change.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,373 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.8-46.2 to Labor”

  1. HSO
    Because they catch insects on the wing, and because such insects are more likely to be found over grasslands or wetlands, Welcome Swallows can often be seen over or near urban wetlands.
    I love them. I recently spent a week trying to capture the moment they skim along just above the surface of the water to take a sip.
    I calculated that the time window was something like 2 or 3/1000th of a second.
    I did get a couple of images but they were imperfect because of motion blur and/or issues with shadows and/or depth of field.
    They have long been one of my favourite birds. Growing up on a dairy farm in West Gippsland meant that they were friendly constants in our daily lives from Spring to Autumn.
    BTW, if you are learning your bird IDs, there are around 20,000 images of Australian birds to be found at this site. These have been moderated by experts so the IDs are accurate.

    http://birdlifephotography.org.au/

  2. Boerwar says:
    Sunday, October 14, 2018 at 7:28 pm
    Dirk Hartog been declared goat and cat free.
    A great start for a major relocation effort.
    Well done those men and women!
    ___________________

    That must have been a huge and difficult task. I understand it is WA’s largest island, 620 square kilometres, and is around 80 km long.

  3. Queen Victoria
    @Vic_Rollison

    Let’s do a little case study on the treatment of Peter Slipper versus Stuart Robert. Both were the one vote needed to secure govt majority. Slipper was harangued out of parliament by a relentless smear campaign. Robert – just paid the money back, nothing to see here. Why is that?

    We all know the answer to that question.

  4. don

    ‘don says:
    Sunday, October 14, 2018 at 7:58 pm

    Boerwar says:
    Sunday, October 14, 2018 at 7:28 pm
    Dirk Hartog been declared goat and cat free.
    A great start for a major relocation effort.
    Well done those men and women!
    ___________________

    That must have been a huge and difficult task. I understand it is WA’s largest island, 620 square kilometres, and is around 80 km long.’

    Having had a bit of direct experience in managing feral populations on islands (including cats), my view is that this is an outstanding bit of work. The goats are fairly straightforward. At a very basic level all you have to do is keep flying around in helicopters and shooting them until they are all dead. In practice I assume they might have had yards and watering points which facilitated concentrations in yards followed by close range shooting.
    But bloody cats!
    The long and narrow shape of Dirk Hartog Island would definitely have been a boon for the cat extirpators but the cliffs would have multiplied the difficulties.

  5. Jones was dubbed the parrot for his bad habit of using other’s works.

    From Wikipedia

    “From 1988 until 1990 Jones wrote a regular column for the Sydney Sunday tabloid The Sun-Herald, but did not appear following a petition by staff calling for his removal as a contributor. This followed Jones’ publication of a column predicting an oil crisis, in which a large amount of material had been taken from Frederick Forsyth’s novel The Negotiator without attribution or indication that their source was a work of fiction.”
    Also
    http://www.abc.net.au/mediawatch/episodes/22500/9976610

  6. Boewar

    The sheep were easily dealt with, rounded up and taken off on a barge. They tried the same with the goats but they were less controllable and there were “incidents” when they got them ashore at Denham.

    The decison was made to shoot them.

    As you say the cats were tougher, with trapping and baiting programs over several years.

    When I was there almost exactly a year ago there had been no sign of a cat for a nearly a year but there were a team of guys still out looking every day for signs and they were to continue that for a few more months.

  7. How out of touch with community expectations?
    In terms of mindset, harking back to before Commies when the Czar had lotsa serfs (1917), then past the Englightenment through the Middle Ages back to the Dark Ages.
    Policy? (May be after the Wentworth by-election?)
    As to services delivery, “… is expected to cut hours from the current horse and carriage time.”

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