Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor; Ipsos: 55-45

Labor’s lead is down slightly in Newspoll but well up in Ipsos, with improving personal ratings for Scott Morrison offering scant comfort for the Coalition.

Two new federal polls this evening:

• The Australian reports the first Newspoll in three weeks has Labor’s two-party lead down from 54-46 to 53-47, from primary votes of Coalition 37% (up one), Labor 38% (down one), Greens 11% (up one) and One Nation 6% (steady). If I understand the report correctly, Scott Morrison is up one on approval to 45% and steady on 39% disapproval, Bill Shorten is up three to 35% and down three to 51%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is in from 45-32 to 45-34. The poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1707.

• The latest monthly Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers has Labor’s lead out from 53-47 to 55-45. After curiously low results for both major parties last month, this month’s primary vote figures have both on 35%, which is a one point increase in the Coalition’s case and a four point increase in Labor’s. The pollster continues to record implausibly strong results for the Greens, who are steady at 15%. Despite everything, Scott Morrison’s approval rating is up four to 50% and disapproval down three to 33%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down three to 41% and up one to 49%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 48-35, out from 47-34 last time. The poll also finds 74% of respondents opposed to laws allowing religious schools to discriminate against gay students or teachers, and 45% in favour of a reduced immigration intake, compared with 23% who want it increased and 29% for it to remain as is. The poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,520 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor; Ipsos: 55-45”

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  2. mikehilliard @ #2361 Wednesday, October 17th, 2018 – 7:00 pm

    Bit pissed off there are pro Sharma/Liberal add banners running on the blog but I guess it’s all $$

    As angry as you are, you should probably click all over them. Repeatedly. Possibly refreshing the page between each click.

    Generally with advertising the advertiser either pays for each click of their ad, or for eachbudget, impression on a website. In this case the advertiser would be Sharma/the Liberals/someone who supports both. You can waste their money by clicking on their ads. Waste enough of it and you can run the ad campaign over its configured budget, at which point the ad goes away.

  5. Tom the First and Best

    “Many of these provisions are also opposed by the ALP, with many in the ALP arguing from them to block the TPP legislation, with the ALP having a policy of later removing them (from a much weaker position from which to remove it).”
    —–

    If you believe that the next ALP government will do anything to change the TPP, i have bridge in Sydney to sell to you.

  7. It will be interesting to see how many G prefs Phelps is able to attract. Her pitch on Nauru could be said to be aimed very squarely at recruiting G-responsive support. If the polls turn out to be accurate, Phelps will need G prefs to stay ahead of Labor’s Tim Murray. If the G-voters follow their HTV, Murray may edge out Phelps…and if the Lib PV is really in the low 30s, then Murray could surprise everyone and get up for a win.

    It’s a longish-shot….but not impossible.

  9. In general, Labor is in favour of negotiating new trade agreements, including multilateral agreements like the TPP. This is obviously a sound policy position. Labor’s policy on trade is quite lengthy, running to several pages, and commits a Labor government to a far more transparent process than the Liberals follow. The policy also commits Labor to include a range of equity criteria, especially in relation to foreign labour recruitment, labour market testing and the conditions of employment of guest workers.

    This is a very great improvement on the existing situation.

    Anyone who is interested in trade policy can read Labor’s federal platform…and avoid the false claims of the usual trolls.

  10. Pseudo Cud Chewer @ #2506 Wednesday, October 17th, 2018 – 11:30 pm

    ar it takes a lot more than that to convince the software your clicks are unique.

    If the platform serving the ads cared enough to do that, then sure. Though I can’t imagine that many would, or do. Google’s definition of CPC does not stipulate that clicks must be from unique users, for instance. If someone views and clicks on your ad 10 times, they’re quite happy to bill you 10 times for that.

    Where they start to care is around fraudulent clicks on affiliate sites where the site operator gets a commission on each click. And certainly there’s a fair bit of complexity built around detecting and preventing that.

    But as always, when in doubt just fire up a fresh TorBrowser instance between each click and you’ll look like a new user each time unless the ad provider is really, really smart.

  12. When you come to this country or are born here, leave the “old country” and its politics behind.

    Why the hell has Scummo put us in the front line regarding Israel. Trump and us – yes , rest of the world – no , at the UN.

    Israelis in Australia will be blamed for anything that goes wrong as a result of ScuMos action in trying to win a by election seat.

    This PM may be dangerous to our national security by involving us in something we should stay out of. Beginning to question how bright he is???

  16. a r @ #2502 Wednesday, October 17th, 2018 – 8:45 pm

    mikehilliard @ #2361 Wednesday, October 17th, 2018 – 7:00 pm

    Bit pissed off there are pro Sharma/Liberal add banners running on the blog but I guess it’s all $$

    As angry as you are, you should probably click all over them. Repeatedly. Possibly refreshing the page between each click.

    Generally with advertising the advertiser either pays for each click of their ad, or for eachbudget, impression on a website. In this case the advertiser would be Sharma/the Liberals/someone who supports both. You can waste their money by clicking on their ads. Waste enough of it and you can run the ad campaign over its configured budget, at which point the ad goes away.

    A very silly idea. The advertiser pays the ad network for each click, and the ad network shares some of that with the site host.

    Trying to game the system as you described may well see Mr Bowe’s account with the ad network suspended or even cancelled.

    DON’T DO IT!!!

  17. A brief good morning. Between suggestions of embassies in Jerusalem, the Nationals turfing their leader for Barnaby, and a fake email smear of Phelps in Wentworth, there are some real moments of lunacy emerging from the neo-fascists, sorry Conservatives, at present. They are behaving like spoilt teenagers told they will not be voted school captain.

    To me this all seems a bit surreal, and not in touch with the values of most Australians. So why do it? I can only conclude it is the increasingly close links between right wing politics here and in USA. They get all their policy ideas from there, and even their campaigning ideas. Fake news and the far right worked in USA so why not here?

    Of course Australia is not the USA. Compulsory voting means offending people to get the base out will lose far more votes (the middle 30%) than it wins (the 10% far right back from Hanson). Are they really so stupid they cannot see this? I think they are. It would be wrong to think of ScumMo and company evil geniuses. There is no sign of genius. Have a good day all.

  19. Morrison in the Guardian on leadership ructions among the Nationals:
    They are matters for the National party. What I do know is that the coalition between the Nationals and the Liberals has never been stronger.

    Bit of a stretch don’t you think? They seemed much stronger to me during Menzies/Frazer/Howard’s times.

  20. Yep. The stupidity burns

    Ray Martin
    Ray Martin
    @Raymartin55
    ·
    18h
    I worked closely with several Australian Ambassadors over four countries when I served in the Middle East ..

    Here’s a view of one of them re the Jerusalem Gambit

    ‘… It’s breathtakingly stupid even by the high standard of stupidity we’re currently operating under’

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