Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor; Ipsos: 55-45

Labor’s lead is down slightly in Newspoll but well up in Ipsos, with improving personal ratings for Scott Morrison offering scant comfort for the Coalition.

Two new federal polls this evening:

The Australian reports the first Newspoll in three weeks has Labor’s two-party lead down from 54-46 to 53-47, from primary votes of Coalition 37% (up one), Labor 38% (down one), Greens 11% (up one) and One Nation 6% (steady). If I understand the report correctly, Scott Morrison is up one on approval to 45% and steady on 39% disapproval, Bill Shorten is up three to 35% and down three to 51%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is in from 45-32 to 45-34. The poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1707.

• The latest monthly Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers has Labor’s lead out from 53-47 to 55-45. After curiously low results for both major parties last month, this month’s primary vote figures have both on 35%, which is a one point increase in the Coalition’s case and a four point increase in Labor’s. The pollster continues to record implausibly strong results for the Greens, who are steady at 15%. Despite everything, Scott Morrison’s approval rating is up four to 50% and disapproval down three to 33%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down three to 41% and up one to 49%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 48-35, out from 47-34 last time. The poll also finds 74% of respondents opposed to laws allowing religious schools to discriminate against gay students or teachers, and 45% in favour of a reduced immigration intake, compared with 23% who want it increased and 29% for it to remain as is. The poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,520 thoughts on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor; Ipsos: 55-45”

  1. Probably the most offensive thing posted about me, disregarding C@tmomma’s ‘scumbag’ riff, was being alleged to be the anti-abortion Marcus Bastiaan. If all men could shut the fuck up about something that has nothing to do with their bodies it would be a good thing.

  2. You know what I think is amusing? It’s obvious that Scott Morrison wants Barnaby Joyce back as Nationals leader because he believes he’ll be able to take the fight up to Bill Shorten and Labor better than Michael McCormack has been able to.

    That would be the same Barnaby Joyce that Bill Shorten and Labor have seen off once already and who wasn’t able to lay a glove on them. 🙂

  3. C@t:

    Bleijie is one of those religious zealots who come into parliament and into the ministry and foist their beliefs onto everyone through law. People like him should never serve in a secular govt. Via Wikipedia.

    As Attorney-General, Bleijie introduced an amendment that renamed Queensland civil partnerships for same-sex couples into registered relationships and disallowed state-sanctioned ceremonies.[4] Bleijie subsequently unveiled legislation to ban single people and same-sex couples from having a child through surrogacy.[5] In 2015, Blejie declared his support for same-sex marriage.[6]

  4. “You won’t believe it but the Nationals are absolutely consumed by talk tonight of a potential move to topple Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack within days ”

    Utterly and completely unfair to expect Shorten, Plibersek, Albo, to keep straight faces if this does go off.

    But…..wouldn’t it be wonderful if they put the Beetrooter in as leader and whatshername stays as Deputy? Barnyard being such a comfortable person for women to be around???

  5. So let me get this right

    Yesterday on our Share Market the losses from Monday were not reversed by the Tuesday gain

    Today the Market was up just over 1%

    And we see the smiling gushing we see on The Business and in reporting elsewhere

    In The Age is reported the best day on the Market in 4 months

    How wonderful!!!

    But, just 6 weeks ago the ASX closed at over 6,400 Points

    And where was the close today?

    What we have seen over the past 6 weeks (because of exposure to Australian equities and the Global falls of last week when the DJIA was down over 4% – after being at historical highs just 3 weeks ago) is that the YTD post 30th June returns on our superannuation accruals have turned negative

    And we see the smiling gushing over a rise of just over 1% today – which will not reverse the YTD losses on our portfolios

    How stupid do these people think we are, putting on their make up and presenting gushing nonsense which pays no regard to exactly what Phase we are in and why?

    Perhaps that could refer to Bernie Fraser’s and Michael Keating’s commentary on neo-liberal policies and the impact on society

    Further, in regards not disgorging today’s gains (which at the very best are better than continuing losses), the DJIA Futures and the ASX200 Futures are both currently down

    These presenters being interviewed are employed by brokerage firms, brokerage firms which have a vested interest in Market activity and buying – so the gushing presentations are designed to promote confidence regardless

    And play us as fools with a concentration span only embracing one day

    A bit like the Liberal Party – which these Brokers support and promote (see WAM acting for their shareholders, regardless of fairness and equity as typical and advertising for 200,000 signatures on a petition re dividend imputation – of 25 Million who live in Australia

    I note also The Age promotes a presentation of “Australia’s richest man”

    Pratt is a public advocate of Trump

    Visy were found guilty of acting as a Cartel – seeing the laws changed to include jail sentences

    Visy have withdrawn from recycling which was a very easy source of revenue for them with no risk because they were dumping what they were being paid to recycle – then dumping to China so selling what they were being paid to accept

    This Trump advocate is “rich” because of what he has inherited – along with his siblings including the child his father had with his mistress

    “Australia’s richest man”

    So credibility attaches

    Except ………

  6. Cat

    Will that be the same Barnaby Joyce who still has lots of questions remaining unanswered about tens of millions of water entitlements, and possibly undeclared conflicts of interests in cabinet rail line decisions?

  7. The Age
    ‏Verified account @theage
    7m7 minutes ago

    ‘Dirty tricks’: Fake email sent to Wentworth voters claims Kerryn Phelps has HIV #auspol

  8. C@t:

    I reckon Barnaby is humbugging Morrison for an official ministerial appointment but he can’t be brought into the ministry unless he’s on the Nats front bench.

  9. My view about “faith” is that people are quite obviously given to believing in abstractions – in invisible and intangible extra-physical “values”. Not infrequently, the abstract is given an identity – a name, which is a very human thing to do – and then classed as a deity. Others place their beliefs in non-deistic abstractions, such as the “ancestors”, or “nature” generally. Others have replaced submission to a deity with submission to propositions about “humanity”, or, specifically, the “rights and dignity” of humanity.

    I think these “values” – a deity or deities, nature, the spirits of the ancestors, our common humanity – are all functionally similar. They are interchangeable. They serve to provide some form of psychological or emotional ordering which humans seem to need to function effectively. On this view, a subscription to the existence of a deity is basically no different from a subscription to a belief in a creative cosmos or in the inherent rights of humanity. I think, more generally, this means it is possible to be “fundamentalist” without being deistic. It is possible, for example, to cleave to a “fundamental” view about human nature without attributing deistic qualities to the cosmos.

    The antithesis of the fundamentalist is the nihilist – the one who cannot believe in anything at all. The nihilist must face existential peril every day, it seems to me. What would we make of the one who can only believe in their doom? What would we say to the condemned?

  10. Socrates @ #2457 Wednesday, October 17th, 2018 – 10:25 pm

    Cat

    Will that be the same Barnaby Joyce who still has lots of questions remaining unanswered about tens of millions of water entitlements, and possibly undeclared conflicts of interests in cabinet rail line decisions?

    Which only Labor Chairs of Committees will be able to get to the bottom of. The Coalition will put BJ into Witness Protection. 🙂

  11. @MikeHilliard

    Bit pissed off there are pro Sharma/Liberal add banners running on the blog but I guess it’s all $$

    I really value this blog, and so am fine with the advertisements, because this is always how public media find funding.

    Strangely, I never see any ads, except for theatre, charities or (tonight) very colourful leather boots, by which I am strangely tempted.

    So, have the advertisers on the blog tagged me as “a lady who is not for turning”, and so rather than political ads, they just try and sell me stuff?

  12. Not devotion to the Monarchy so much, but anti-Republicanism is now as much a part of right wing virtue signalling as climate denial. We came tantalisingly close in the dying years of the last century, now the Republic is more distant than it was 30 years ago.

  13. It’s virtually impossible for Lesbians to get HIV! I could go into why but suffice to say they don’t go where gay men having unprotected sex do.

  14. As I posted on the other board, because of past form, rogue emails and ‘administrative errors ‘ the Liberals will be tared by the Wentworth email.
    They will be blamed, because it is conceivable that they might have done it.

  15. Bringing BJ back onto the Front Bench would just put up in neon lights the amorality of the Coalition. And their lack of talent.

    It’d emphasise an already glaring in neon lights phenomenon, true.

  16. Voting in the next election is going to be tricky.

    I will put the Party that supports the TPP (and other right wing shit) last.

    Should it be the neo-liberal LNP or the neo-liberal ALP?

    Or does it matter?

    I think informal is probably the only option.

    It would give me no pleasure to have the LNP bastards back … but to NOT have Bowen as treasurer is certainly appealing.

  17. It certainly wouldn’t say much about Scott Morrison’s so-called Christian Values Coalition government, to allow Barnaby Joyce back onto the Front Bench.

  18. Wouldn’t it be good if the right wing of the ALP took their rewards from the mining, banking and gambling kleptocracy BEFORE they became ministers?

  19. Swamprat: an informal vote is a copout. If you object strongly to the TPP you vote 1 Green, last the vandals in office and put Labor ahead of them and their fascist mates.

  20. @William and Mike

    Mike, I rather resent the suggestion that my blog is a pro-Labor equivalent of Menzies House. Evidently the Dave Sharma campaign has taken out advertising with Google Ads, though I haven’t seen one myself. They might appear because they’re being triggered by the mentions on the site of the Wentworth by-election; because this blog is identified as part of a category of websites they have chosen to target (Australian politics, for instance); or because of your Google search history. If you don’t wish to see a given ad, you can click on the cross at the top right and select “stop seeing this ad”.

    My best guess is that Poll Bludger is the pre-eminent psephology website in Australia, and that it has at least 10 (or 100?) times as many eyeballs on the site as people who post here. Some of those people will be those who are looking for information to make up their mind about how to vote. So, the Liberals are targeting those of us who’ve not failed some personality test (like me), and who they think may still have an open mind about how to vote.

  21. Steve77

    “Swamprat: an informal vote is a copout. If you object strongly to the TPP you vote 1 Green, last the vandals in office and put Labor ahead of them and their fascist mates.”
    —–

    But that’s just a vote for the right wing Bliarite bastards. That will just encourage them.

  22. Quite obviously, since Australia is a trade-dependent economy, Australia will further its economic interests if it pursues trade-opening measures with other economies. The TPP11 is such a measure. Those who are slinging off against trade agreements should explain why they are against trade.

    Australian consumers benefit every day from the absence of trade barriers to imports – from a customs regime that means real wages are very significant;y higher than they otherwise would be. And likewise, Australian firms – their owners and their employees, as well as their customers – benefit from having liberal access to foreign economies. There is absolutely no doubt whatsoever that economies that trade with each other grow more quickly, have higher real wages, and greater economic and social welfare than they would have if they did not trade with each other.

    It is also the undeniable fact that broad-based multi-lateral trade liberalisation stalled in the 1980s. We have had nearly 40 years without any significant multi-lateral trade reform. This is not for the want of trying by Australia. The consequence is that Australia has to find other ways to expand trade opportunities. The TPP is one of many such opportunities. The current agreement is a much better deal than the one that Trump scratched and maybe would have been an even better deal had Labor been in power during the negotiations.

    What it is not is the ogre that the Gs and the fakers of the pop-left are making it out to be. It will help all those economies that have signed up for it, including the developing economies of SE Asia and Latin America. Who on the pop-left are going to argue out loud that these peoples should not be permitted to develop their economies? Who is going to tell them all to go and get stuffed for the sake of an utterly spurious political point-scoring?

  23. Thought I would summarise what I posted on the Wentworth thread. I need the attention.

    What is the provenance of the HIV E-mail?

    1. Homophobic crackpot (religion optional).
    2. Lib loose cannon (Young Lib, Menzies House or IPA). Fits their playbook. Sharma’s “no comment” is probably irrelevant in view of recent campaigning trauma.
    3. Lab loose cannon (Young Labor or anti-IPA entity). Getting overconfident and indulging in some amateurish black ops.
    4. Abbott demanded an endorsement of Sharma by Turnbull. Turnbull has just delivered.

  24. briefly

    “The TPP11 is such a measure. Those who are slinging off against trade agreements should explain why they are against trade.”
    —-

    Mate.

    You have got it really bad.

    The slimey slide from trade is good = TPP11 is good.

    Corporate power is good.

    Anybody who opposes corporate power is a racist.

    The liberal dream!!!!

    Keep the working class in thrall and the hipsters reign.

  25. Ophuph Hucksake @ #2635 Wednesday, October 17th, 2018 – 8:02 pm

    Thought I would summarise what I posted on the Wentworth thread. I need the attention.

    What is the provenance of the HIV E-mail?

    1. Homophobic crackpot (religion optional).
    2. Lib loose cannon (Young Lib, Menzies House or IPA). Fits their playbook. Sharma’s “no comment” is probably irrelevant in view of recent campaigning trauma.
    3. Lab loose cannon (Young Labor or anti-IPA entity). Getting overconfident and indulging in some amateurish black ops.
    4. Abbott demanded an endorsement of Sharma by Turnbull. Turnbull has just delivered.

    Idiot Liberal campaign staffer who is deeply mired in Lib student politics and is hence clueless about Wentworth demography.

  26. “Idiot Liberal campaign staffer who is deeply mired in Lib student politics and is hence clueless about Wentworth demography.”

    Will be interesting to see if they have covered their electronic tracks as well as they hope they have. 🙂

    Is this something the AEC would be looking into??

  27. “But that’s just a vote for the right wing Bliarite bastards. That will just encourage them.”

    Blair was infinitely preferable to Thatcher.

    Not voting means you leave the choice to everyone else, and in the last two Federal Elections, “everyone else” voted collectively for the IPA, for the Big Banks, to dismantle Medicare, the ABC and Social Welfare, to massively increase Tertiary fees, for inaction on the climate, to sell off whatever remains in public ownership and suppress wages. Of course they thought they were voting for ‘jobs n’growth and to stop boats.

    If you think your judgement might be better than that of “everyone else”, have your say.

  28. @pedant

    Your image of Lyle Shelton quoting Ian Plimer reminded me of this devastating review of one of Plimer’s works, published by The Australian in 2009. https://www.theaustralian.com.au/arts/books/ian-plimer-heaven-and-earth/news-story/211cf8e7a30d14ff69e97f5bb3ba5cf1

    Mashley is my long time colleague, and I was very impressed with his review. At morning tea, when the review was mentioned, felt obliged to admit that I has held a fund raiser for Ian Plimer, supporting his fight against creationism. It was a long time ago.

    A friend and colleague who was at that morning tea was also with me some years later when I suggested at a conference Heidelberg (summer, magic) that it might be good if some of our colleagues were kicked upstairs.

    He reminded me of unintended consequences, specifically mentioning my support of Ian Plimer, who turned out to be antithetical to science.

  29. This is an Abbott Ministry – hence climate, population and the environment

    Borrison is a puppet in a dysfunctional, divided and compromised government thrashing around as it is

    This is the Appeasing Abbott Party

  30. “Steve777

    You cannot say anyone’s vote is a “copout”.

    It is their vote.”

    I can say it, just as I can say that anyone who votes right wing whose interests don’t align with those of the real elites (those with the lions share of the nation’s wealth) made a poor choice.

    But it is their vote, their choice to make. There is nothing I can or should do about it.

  31. https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/10/14/ipsos-55-45-labor-3/comment-page-50/#comment-2977519

    The Greens are opposing specific provisions of the TPP, not trade in general. Thing like anti-democratic “ISDS”, which is an anti-democratic opaque corporate rort.

    Many of these provisions are also opposed by the ALP, with many in the ALP arguing from them to block the TPP legislation, with the ALP having a policy of later removing them (from a much weaker position from which to remove it).

  32. Steve777
    “If you think your judgement might be better than that of “everyone else”, have your say.”

    ——-

    Haha, it matters little what i think.

    I have no place in this brutal consumerist plastic species-cidal Australia.

    It has become a country of spivs, liars, crooks, American shysters, poverty, rent-seeking capitalists, corrupt aged care, banking, superannuation, town planning, health care, child care, taxation, employment.” etc …. etc… etc

  33. On psephology blogs, and why they attract centrist and centre-left posters, I am intrigued.

    William, my take is that you and Nate Silver (US) run your excellent psephology blogs purely on facts, without any opinions given or stated. In fact, this latter property of your respective blogs is why us regulars treasure them so much.

    So, why do well run, rigorous psephology blogs have such an attraction for centre /centre-left voters?

  34. Maria

    “So, why do well run, rigorous psephology blogs have such an attraction for centre /centre-left voters?”
    —-

    Where are the left wingers?

  35. Confessions and imacca:

    Re the smear email, see my comment on William’s Wentworth thread. The email appears to be a breach of s329(1) of the Electoral Act, and I’m sure the AEC would investigate it if a complaint were lodged.

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