Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor; Ipsos: 55-45

Labor’s lead is down slightly in Newspoll but well up in Ipsos, with improving personal ratings for Scott Morrison offering scant comfort for the Coalition.

Two new federal polls this evening:

• The Australian reports the first Newspoll in three weeks has Labor’s two-party lead down from 54-46 to 53-47, from primary votes of Coalition 37% (up one), Labor 38% (down one), Greens 11% (up one) and One Nation 6% (steady). If I understand the report correctly, Scott Morrison is up one on approval to 45% and steady on 39% disapproval, Bill Shorten is up three to 35% and down three to 51%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is in from 45-32 to 45-34. The poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1707.

• The latest monthly Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers has Labor’s lead out from 53-47 to 55-45. After curiously low results for both major parties last month, this month’s primary vote figures have both on 35%, which is a one point increase in the Coalition’s case and a four point increase in Labor’s. The pollster continues to record implausibly strong results for the Greens, who are steady at 15%. Despite everything, Scott Morrison’s approval rating is up four to 50% and disapproval down three to 33%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down three to 41% and up one to 49%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 48-35, out from 47-34 last time. The poll also finds 74% of respondents opposed to laws allowing religious schools to discriminate against gay students or teachers, and 45% in favour of a reduced immigration intake, compared with 23% who want it increased and 29% for it to remain as is. The poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,520 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor; Ipsos: 55-45”

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  2. Thanks, William

    ‘45% in favour of a reduced immigration intake, compared with 23% who want it increased and 29% for it to remain as is.’

    I thought that Marr’s comment on Insiders on this issue was a bit counter factual. He correctly pointed out that One Nation voters have an extremely low support for migration.
    But I thought that Marr’s summary of non-One Nation support for migration was a bit inaccurate on the high side.
    I suppose the other issue with the migration issue is that voters who are likely to vote according to migration policies may be concentrated in a few seats rather than spread thinly across the nation.

  4. Ipsos seems to bounce around in a manner that’s consistent with the MOE (2.8% in this case) whereas Newspoll doesn’t seem to vary enough. Is there a methodological reason for this?

  6. Work to Rule you’re quite right. Once upon a time all polls seemed to bounced around according to sample noise. Now not so much.

  7. Boerwar @ #1352 Sunday, October 14th, 2018 – 7:57 pm

    When it came to swallows, Aristotle was a bit of a stick-in-the-mud:
    https://www.backyardchirper.com/blog/bird-myths-swallows-survive-winter-burrowed-in-mud/

    Yes, yes ❗ That’s all very well, but have you considered the following items leaked from the LNP joint party room scientific division ❓

    It will be readily observed that the swallows have gone back to Capistrano and that water is wet.😵

  8. (From the previous thread, re The Parrot Jones)

    Confessions, don, ItzaDream, Steve777

    That all makes sense, thanks. I sorta thought it might be something like that, but I did wonder. Regarding Sulpur Crested Cockatoos, we have a flock of living in the park across the road. Noisy f***ers. We affectionately call *them* Nazguls.

  9. [‘The poll also finds 74% of respondents opposed to laws allowing religious schools to discriminate against gay students or teachers…’]

    Evidencing that most Australians are decent, not taken in by the Tory nutters.

  10. Another joke of a poll from Ipsos. How the Greens could be at 15 is a laugh. But at least they are consistent as they overrate the Greens and so Labor gets a higher 2PP share.

  11. ‘The poll also finds 74% of respondents opposed to laws allowing religious schools to discriminate against gay students or teachers

    Why the Ruddock Report has backfired, and as Savva said this morning, has simply served only to highlight the appalling practices currently deployed by religious institutions. I wonder if it will ever see the light of day.

  12. Morrison’s reasonably good PPM suggests he’s still in a honeymoon period and there’s plenty of scope for him to drag down the conservative vote as time progresses.

  13. #Ipsos Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 35 (+1) ALP 35 (+4) GRN 15 (0) #auspol

    Dreadful numbers for Scotty, is it too late to go back to Dutts?

    And the Black Wiggle with record numbers! All is forgiven…

  15. Dreadful numbers for Scotty, is it too late to go back to Dutts?

    The Libs will likely be working off the PPM figures. Have to say I’m surprised Rex hasn’t been along to tell everyone how the latest IPSOS figures are yet further indication of Labor’s poor polling under a Shorten leadership.

  16. “Morrison’s reasonably good PPM suggests he’s still in a honeymoon period “

    He’s throwing money around like the proverbial drunken sailor, popping up on friendly media outlets on high rotation and being endlessly boosted in the Daily Rupert.

  17. Crikey Bill and the team have a lot to work with during QT this sitting.

    Where do you begin? You’ve only got one hour and a bit of televised mayhem.

    There is still so much left unanswered from the last sitting that needs following up.

  18. ‘But at least they are consistent as they overrate the Greens and so Labor gets a higher 2PP share.’

    Not sure that follows. It depends where the ‘extra’ Green primaries come from – they may have been Labor’s to begin with.

  20. steve davis,

    Exactly.

    Grab the narrative. Liberals ratshit !

    It does not matter what Newspoll throws up now. Good or bad.

    Cheers.

  21. Aunt Mavis @ #9 Sunday, October 14th, 2018 – 8:26 pm

    [‘The poll also finds 74% of respondents opposed to laws allowing religious schools to discriminate against gay students or teachers…’]

    Evidencing that most Australians are decent, not taken in by the Tory nutters.

    Good isn’t it. And then I think, 1 out of 4 of us think gay children should be expelled, and the head shakes.

    Thanks for the Callas link; mind you, she could have given Joan a run for her roulades in the Tory department. In fact, despite her tendencies (and gosh weren’t they shocked when they moved in next door to their new bestie, one Noel Coward, only to discover Switzerland is a tax haven) , Joan was a pretty decent contributor to things at large I reckon. Hard working; gave ’em what they paid for; no tantrums and silly business, etc. I saw her at a fund raiser for children’s cancer at the GPO hotel in Sydney, yonks ago, where ‘women of renown’ did a fashion cat walk. Joan and cat walks don’t easily come to mind, but she strutted her stuff in whatever they’d dressed her, as the loudspeakers blared out some Norma.

  22. So,once again,PPM figures mean absolutely nothing. Turnbull lost 38+ Newspolls, was ahead as PPM, but got knifed. Watch you back ScoMo…….lol

  24. So those numbers – 35 Labor, 15 Green, 35 Coalition, 15 someone else.

    So give 12 / 15 from Green to Labor, then Labor must be getting 8/15 from ‘someone else’ to make 55. Margin of error 2.9% for the poll size (1,200). It would Seem more credible if Lab-Green were something like 39-11.

  27. I wonder what James Ashby thinks? The bogans he is working for want to discriminate against him

    By PERRY DUFFIN
    AUSTRALIAN ASSOCIATED PRESS
    2 MINUTES AGO OCTOBER 14, 2018
    Australian voters oppose giving religious schools the right to discriminate against gay teachers and students, a Fairfax-Ipsos poll reveals.

    The poll, released on Sunday night, shows 74 per cent of all voters oppose passing laws which would give schools the power to select students and teachers based on sexual orientation, relationship status or gender identity.

    Only 21 per cent of voters support passing the laws.

    Among coalition voters, 30 per cent support passing the laws while 62 per cent oppose them. The highest support for the laws came from Pauline Hanson’s One Nation voters with 45 per cent and the lowest came from the Greens with seven per cent.

  30. On the other hand, One Nation voters are in a majority, even though barely, on this:

    A special Fairfax-Ipsos survey finds that 74 per cent of voters oppose laws to allow religious schools to select students and teachers based on their sexual orientation, gender identity or relationship status.

    The laws are opposed by 62 per cent of Coalition supporters, 81 per cent of Labor voters, 92 per cent of Greens voters and 51 per cent of respondents who back Pauline Hanson’s One Nation.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/fairfax-ipsos-poll-huge-majority-of-australians-oppose-laws-banning-gay-students-and-teachers-20181014-p509kv.html

  42. If you wish to record a guess at tonight’s Newspoll I’ll be checking until William Bowe posts the result. So far…

    PB mean: ALP 53.4 to 46.6 LNP
    PB median: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 51

  44. And in depressing news:

    Angelo Carusone
    @GoAngelo

    Mitch McConnell joins Trump at rally, tells Trump to keep sending him court nominees and the Senate will confirm them and “change the courts forever.”

  49. @Late Riser

    Jones was dubbed the parrot for his bad habit of using other’s works.

    From Wikipedia

    “From 1988 until 1990 Jones wrote a regular column for the Sydney Sunday tabloid The Sun-Herald, but did not appear following a petition by staff calling for his removal as a contributor. This followed Jones’ publication of a column predicting an oil crisis, in which a large amount of material had been taken from Frederick Forsyth’s novel The Negotiator without attribution or indication that their source was a work of fiction.”
    Also
    http://www.abc.net.au/mediawatch/episodes/22500/9976610

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