Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor; Ipsos: 55-45

Labor’s lead is down slightly in Newspoll but well up in Ipsos, with improving personal ratings for Scott Morrison offering scant comfort for the Coalition.

Two new federal polls this evening:

• The Australian reports the first Newspoll in three weeks has Labor’s two-party lead down from 54-46 to 53-47, from primary votes of Coalition 37% (up one), Labor 38% (down one), Greens 11% (up one) and One Nation 6% (steady). If I understand the report correctly, Scott Morrison is up one on approval to 45% and steady on 39% disapproval, Bill Shorten is up three to 35% and down three to 51%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is in from 45-32 to 45-34. The poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1707.

• The latest monthly Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers has Labor’s lead out from 53-47 to 55-45. After curiously low results for both major parties last month, this month’s primary vote figures have both on 35%, which is a one point increase in the Coalition’s case and a four point increase in Labor’s. The pollster continues to record implausibly strong results for the Greens, who are steady at 15%. Despite everything, Scott Morrison’s approval rating is up four to 50% and disapproval down three to 33%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down three to 41% and up one to 49%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 48-35, out from 47-34 last time. The poll also finds 74% of respondents opposed to laws allowing religious schools to discriminate against gay students or teachers, and 45% in favour of a reduced immigration intake, compared with 23% who want it increased and 29% for it to remain as is. The poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,520 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor; Ipsos: 55-45”

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  1. Peter Slipper has just joined the fray with this tweet.
    “Don’t forget I was found not guilty in court! It seems that Stuart Robert has been protected from the legat process and not have to face a court -equivalence of treatment?”

  3. It’ll be interesting to see whether Morrison the God Botherer or Morrison the Populist wins out on religious “freedoms.” I think he’s kind of screwed either way. He’ll alienate the center if he goes ahead with the suggested reforms, but the right will go feral if he doesn’t.

  4. 44.5 to 55.5, im guessing
    Watching national wrap. OMFG, fund the abc to have some damn infrastructure and decent techo’s for the weekend.

  7. Asha Leu @ #53 Sunday, October 14th, 2018 – 9:20 pm

    It’ll be interesting to see whether Morrison the God Botherer or Morrison the Populist wins out on religious “freedoms.” I think he’s kind of screwed either way. He’ll alienate the center if he goes ahead with the suggested reforms, but the right will go feral if he doesn’t.

    Tuesday is the day to watch. It’s being debated in the party room. 🙂

  13. Scotty is snookered everywhere he turns. The Abbott legacy booby traps and pissed off cohorts are legion, there is a disaster no matter what he does – even Rupert sees the writing on the wall…

  22. GhostWhoVotes
    ‏ @GhostWhoVotes
    5s5 seconds ago

    #Newspoll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 37 (+1) ALP 38 (-1) GRN 11 (+1) ON 6 (0) #auspol

  28. The poll of 1707 conducted nationally between October 11 to October 14 showed the Coalition gaining a point on its primary vote to 37 per cent, recording its third successive primary vote gain and marking a four point rebound from a record low of 33 per cent just seven weeks ago.

    Labor’s primary vote dropped backed a point to 38 per cent and while still ahead of the Coalition, has continued its steady fall from the high of 42 per cent recorded a month ago amid the government’s internal crisis.

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison gained a point in approval while Bill Shorten enjoyed a three point bounce following a policy blitzkrieg over the past two weeks.

  29. One Nation’s primary vote remained unchanged on six per cent. The Greens rose a point to 11 per cent and other minor parties dropped back a point to eight per cent.

  30. And PB can take a bow. PB Newspoll-Poll 2018-10-14

    PB mean: ALP 53.5 to 46.5 LNP
    PB median: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 53

    ALP / LNP
    55 / 45 A different Michael
    60 / 40 adrian
    53 / 47 a r
    52 / 48 Al Pal
    53 / 47 Andrew_Earlwood
    55 / 45 Aqualung
    53 / 47 Aunt Mavis
    52 / 48 Bennelong Lurker
    52 / 48 BK
    54 / 46 Boerwar
    54 / 46 briefly
    53 / 47 C@tmomma
    53 / 47 Clem Attlee
    53 / 47 Confessions
    54.5 / 45.5 DaretoTread
    53 / 47 Don
    52 / 48 Douglas and Milko
    54 / 46 Fulvio Sammut
    55 / 45 Gecko
    54 / 46 guytaur
    53 / 47 Harry “Snapper” Organs
    53 / 47 IoM
    54 / 46 imacca
    54 / 46 jeffemu
    53 / 47 jenauthor
    54 / 46 John R
    56 / 44 KayJay
    53 / 47 Late Riser
    53 / 47 Matt31
    55 / 45 Michael
    54 / 46 mikehilliard
    53 / 47 Outside Left
    53 / 47 pica
    53 / 47 Player One
    53 / 47 poroti
    51 / 49 Prof. Higgins
    54 / 46 Puffytmd
    54 / 46 Question
    53 / 47 rhwombat
    52 / 48 Sceptic
    53 / 47 SCOUT
    55.5 / 44.5 south
    50 / 50 Sprocket_
    54 / 46 Socrates
    54 / 46 Sohar
    53 / 47 steve davis
    53 / 47 Steve777
    52.5 / 47.5 The Silver Bodgie
    55 / 45 Toby Esterhase
    53 / 47 Tricot
    53 / 47 Upnorth
    52.5 / 47.5 Whisper
    53 / 47 Yabba

  33. Gee, all that walking round in a fluor jacket with his name on it just in case he forgot, and the best Morrison and the LNP can get is 53-47 at best and 55-45 at worse. Not much joy to take into parliament in the coming week.

  34. C@tmomma @ #45 Sunday, October 14th, 2018 – 9:12 pm

    Itza,
    Considering the topic du jour today I thought that line appropriate. 🙂

    You picked an interesting ‘fat lady’!

    I didn’t think it inappropriate for a second, but I couldn’t resist, and tried an outsourcing swifty.

    Biggest voice I’ve ever heard. But morbidly obese. Margaret Throsby interviewed her, and she spoke frankly about herself and her weight.

  36. Kevin Bonham…

    2PP aggregate post-#Newspoll and provisionally #Ipsos: 53.9 to Labor by 2016 prefs, 53.2 with One Nation adjustment. Both +0.6 since last week.

  37. Mark Drafus on the National Wrap said Labor had improved in News Poll before official release… was there another judicious “rounding “to help the Prime Muppet

  44. Smart move by Dr Phelps

    “I am ashamed of the policy of offshore detention,” she said. “As a doctor and a human being it offends me.

    “We are a good-hearted people being led by a heartless government. It applies to both major parties.”

    She also told the audience of the harrowing journeys of her in-laws escaping the Holocaust as children. Phelps argued that Australia was both breaching its international obligations towards refugees and doing itself out of the talents of those who sought asylum.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/14/kerryn-phelps-urges-wentworth-voters-to-use-byelection-to-protest-inhumane-refugee-policies

    She seems to be blitzing the media.

  46. adrian

    Yep – chockers with dialogue poorly inserted just to get the viewer some facts – of the “Gee, Simon! Don’t push that button! Since April 1958, when JFK was President, he decided that each facility would have a button directly connected to the Pentagon..” “Really, Helen? That demonstrates the close link between our countries, and how important Pine Gap is in the scheme of it all. Wasn’t JFK assassinated?” “Yes, by a man named Lee Harvey Oswald.” “Oh! So what does THIS button do?” school of writing.

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