BludgerTrack: 54.0-46.0 to Labor

Plenty of excitement this week from Wentworth, but none whatsoever from BludgerTrack.

New polls from Newspoll and Ipsos have made next to no difference to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate’s reading on voting intention, unless you count 54-46 as a psychological barrier, since it was 53.9-46.1 last week. There has been no change on the seat projection, and only small movements in the primary vote – the largest being a drop from 6.6% to 5.9% for One Nation, who were down from 7% to 5% in the Ipsos poll. I still don’t have a Scott Morrison net approval trend in action yet, but Bill Shorten’s reading records a slight improvement after a somewhat stronger result from Newspoll than their previous poll three weeks ago. The preferred prime minister trend has hardly moved at all, and remains very much as it was under Malcolm Turnbull.

Full results on the link below. Note also the post below this one, dealing with the rather more interesting subject of Saturday’s Wentworth by-election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,160 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.0-46.0 to Labor”

  1. Gecko @ #2120 Saturday, October 20th, 2018 – 7:05 pm

    Is there a link to Morrison’s Wentworth concession speech? Don’t get Sky in these parts.

    This from the Guardian blog.

    Scott Morrison is on a roll. The crowd does the back-up singing.

    It’s what we believe. We believe in a fair go for those who have a go. We believe that the best form of welfare is a job.

    Yeah!

    We believe it is every Australians’ duty to make a contribution and not take a contribution.

    Yeah!

    And we believe this: You don’t raise people up by bringing others down.

    Yeah!

    Let me tell you who doesn’t believe those things: The Labor party.

    Shame!

    Bill Shorten doesn’t believe those things.

    Shame!

    My message to Bill Shorten is you will never lead a country that you want to divide.

  2. Aunt Mavis says:
    Saturday, October 20, 2018 at 12:27 pm
    I feel a song coming on:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=63yBpl6Oixo

    The photo of Mahalia in the video was taken at the 1957 Newport Jazz Festival in Rhode Island. The following year she had two appearances at Newport; the first singing with the Duke Ellington Orchestra and then an hour-long midnight set the following night which ended with her stirring rendition of the Lord’s Prayer.
    The 1958 Newport concert is regarded as perhaps the most outstanding jazz concert ever and as one writer put it has “taken on mythic status.” With the America’s Cup sailing races ,off Narragansett Bay in the background, I was lucky enough to have been there.
    These are some of the other performers I heard that sweltering July 4th weekend: The Benny Goodman Orchestra, Thelonius Monk, Ray Charles, Miles Davis, Chuck Berry, Dinah Washington, Gerry Mulligan, Louis Armstrong, Anita O’Day, George Shearing, Chico Hamilton, Dave Brubeck, Paul Desmond, Chris Connor, Jack Teagarden, Bobby Hackett. What a program!
    If I knew how to attach a photo, I’d attach a photo I took of the Duke at the piano leading his orchestra. You can also get the flavor of the event from Bert Stern’s fine documentary Jazz on a Summer’s Day.

  3. In the context of what should happen at next year’s general election, someone brought up the subject of the Canadian conservatives in 1993. The Progressive-Conservatives went into that election with 156 seats and a majority in the House of Commons. They came out of it with just 2 seats. Yes two!!

    As someone remarked at the time, the PC’s were able to have their caucus meetings in a phone booth.

    And yes that “Progressive” in the party name is a bit of a misnomer. For some us, like the Coalition they were the Regressive-Conservatives. But over the next decade they morphed into a more right-wing party which regained power in 2006 under Stephen Harper and ruled for nine years.

  4. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. What a rout!

    David Crowe says that this was a swift and savage message to Scott Morrison that puts him in a diabolical position in Parliament and sets him on course for catastrophe at the next election.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/wentworth-hiding-puts-morrison-government-on-course-for-general-election-catastrophe-20181020-p50ay4.html
    Tony Wright says those on the hunt for a scapegoat should start with Peter Dutton.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/those-on-the-hunt-for-a-scapegoat-should-start-with-peter-dutton-20181020-p50ayk.html
    Not holding back, Katharine Murphy opines that the Wentworth byelection isn’t just a loss for the Liberals. It’s a disaster she says.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/20/the-wentworth-byelection-isnt-just-a-loss-for-the-liberals-its-a-disaster
    Michelle Grattan says that the byelection fiasco will re-open fractures in the government and threatens a damaging burst of infighting between Liberal conservatives and moderates.
    https://theconversation.com/liberals-trounced-in-huge-wentworth-swing-bringing-a-hung-parliament-105351
    The Australian’s Brad Norrington says the Wentworth by-election result smells like one just before a change of government. Bill Shorten’s popularity doesn’t matter now. He says Morrison has lost his first test.
    https://outline.com/yx5sdJ
    Phil Coorey tells us about the punishment meted out in Wentworth.
    https://www.outline.com/9jbuGn
    Paula Matthewson has her say on the ballot box bludgeoning delivered to Morrison and his government.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/10/20/wentworth-by-election-analysis/
    Tess Lawrence wrote yesterday that the KKKoalition has signed its own death warrant.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/kkkoalition-signs-own-death-warrant-declares-hanson-the-white-queen,12018
    Alexandra Smith reckons Marise Payne’s husband is lining himself up for a tilt at Gladys’s job. But it’s fraught with danger she says.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/the-minister-for-the-west-and-his-obsession-with-the-east-20181018-p50ado.html
    Jacqui Maley writes that most voters, particularly urban ones, will have watched with nauseated incredulity as speculation about the Nationals’ leadership mounted this week and she goes into the questions that remain regarding Joyce.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/why-the-big-questions-about-barnaby-joyce-are-so-important-20181019-p50at5.html
    Is there a place for waste-to-energy schemes on Australia?
    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/sustainability/should-australia-be-turning-its-rubbish-into-electricity-20181018-p50aih.html
    In Smith declares that when it comes to Manus and Nauru enough is enough.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/manus-and-nauru-enough-is-enough-20181018-p50ahq.html
    Peter FitzSimons tells us what the royal visit really says about Australia.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/what-the-royal-visit-really-says-about-australia-20181019-p50ats.html
    In a rather angry contribution Matt Wade explains how the boom is long gone but it doesn’t mean Australia’s anxiety about housing affordability has disappeared.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/house-prices-might-be-falling-but-our-anxiety-isn-t-20181019-p50atj.html
    Ian Warden says all Australian palefaces should be grateful to Senator Hanson for her motion and then for her inarticulate but passionate defence of it next day on one of those breakfast TV shows that get simple-minded viewers’ days off to such a sparkling start.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/parliaments-ace-paleface-makes-government-blush-20181019-p50amq.html
    Australia’s National Broadband Network has been problematic for too long, our own Government interfering with the common good, writes Paul Budde.
    https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/the-nbn-and-the-common-good–fending-off-the-forces-of-privatisation,12017
    The Washington Post’s Paul Parhi warns us why the saga of missing journalist Jamal Khashoggi resonates with all of us.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/why-the-saga-of-missing-journalist-jamal-khashoggi-resonates-with-all-of-us-20181019-p50anf.html
    The Australian government has decided it is “no longer appropriate” to attend a summit in Saudi Arabia in light of the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/20/shorten-says-australia-should-boycott-saudi-summit-over-khashoggi-death
    Simon Tisdall writes that Miss Marple would demolish in minutes the Saudi story of a fistfight gone wrong.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/20/what-saudi-statement-about-khashoggi-fistfight-reveals
    Timothy Boyle is far from impressed with the American influence on sport in Australia.
    https://www.smh.com.au/sport/afl/australian-sport-doesn-t-need-to-be-slathered-in-american-mustard-20181020-p50ax2.html
    eBay has accused Amazon of using “illegal” tactics to poach sellers using eBay’s very own database against them, puzzling analysts who claim the juvenile feud will have little impact on where consumers choose to shop.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2018/10/19/ebay-amazon-tactics-sellers/
    Tell me this is not true!
    https://outline.com/C8uYVG
    And for today’s “Arsehole of the WeeK” nomination we have . . .
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/19/australian-man-admits-rape-kidnap-of-british-backpacker

    Cartoon Corner

    Mark David with another trophy for Morrison.

    Peter Broelman in Wentworth.

    Zanetti with Morrison’s last gasp in Wentworth.

    A couple of good ones from Matt Golding.


    A few more in here.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-october-21-2018-20181020-h16wbg.html

  5. Listened for a bit to Prissy this pm on ABC News radio, hasn’t learned a thing:
    1. Wentworth is the geographically smallest electorate
    2. Very different people there i.e. don’t care about the climate
    3. Greens and Labor suffered swings against them too.

    So all settled then! Simples!

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