BludgerTrack: 54.0-46.0 to Labor

Plenty of excitement this week from Wentworth, but none whatsoever from BludgerTrack.

New polls from Newspoll and Ipsos have made next to no difference to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate’s reading on voting intention, unless you count 54-46 as a psychological barrier, since it was 53.9-46.1 last week. There has been no change on the seat projection, and only small movements in the primary vote – the largest being a drop from 6.6% to 5.9% for One Nation, who were down from 7% to 5% in the Ipsos poll. I still don’t have a Scott Morrison net approval trend in action yet, but Bill Shorten’s reading records a slight improvement after a somewhat stronger result from Newspoll than their previous poll three weeks ago. The preferred prime minister trend has hardly moved at all, and remains very much as it was under Malcolm Turnbull.

Full results on the link below. Note also the post below this one, dealing with the rather more interesting subject of Saturday’s Wentworth by-election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,160 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.0-46.0 to Labor”

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  1. Hello from Helsinki, where it’s still Wednesday, the education system is (almost) entirely public and world leading, union membership is high and people are living longer. I’m sure these aren’t all coincidences.

  2. Happy with these numbers if you are a Shorten follower.

    Sure he would be content to travel to the next election with this level of support.

    PM would not be confident of keeping his job if Wentworth goes badly.

  3. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Bevan Shields tells us about the Nationals’ death wish.
    Michelle Grattan has something to say about it.
    It’s getting desperate and dirty in Wentworth.
    Turnbull has left New York but delayed his return to Sydney, allaying fears it would destroy the byelection hopes of the Liberal candidate for Wentworth, Dave Sharma.
    And Dennis Shanahan tells us that John Howard will intervene in the Wentworth by-­election campaign in a last-ditch attempt to win over ‘grumpy ­Liberal voters’.
    Our Prime Minister has declared that the Wentworth by-election threatens the stability of our country unless a majority vote for the Liberal candidate. The Wentworth by-election may be the most hotly contested in living memory and also reveals much about why our democracy is broken and needs fixing!,12005
    Jennifer Hewett says that Morrison’s government seems to be focused on distractions.
    Katharine Murphy writes that as conditions become critical for dozens of children, paediatrician Paul Bauert is alerting MPs to an emergency they can no longer ignore. He has spent days roaming the corridors of Parliament House trying to get politicians to focus on what’s happening on Nauru.
    In a very good contribution Michael Pascoe says that Scott Morrison’s Australia resembles the 51st American state.
    John Warhurst is unimpressed with the way the religious freedom report has been handled. A good contribution.
    Education academic Emily Gray explains why legislation should ban schools from discriminating against LGBTIQ+ students and teachers.
    The Australian’s John Uren tells us that the claimed benefits of the small to medium sized business cuts are still unproven.
    Richard Denniss says that Trump’s tax cuts will increase inequality and Australia shouldn’t follow his lead.
    Niki Savva accuses Pauline Hanson of leading the country gown not the sewer.
    Anglicare’s Kasey Chambers explains how work is becoming more casual. For the first time, less than half of all Australians are in full-time work. About one in four are working casually.
    Anna Patty says it’s not easy out there for young job seekers.
    And Greg Jericho tells us that penalising low-skilled unemployed who are already doing it tough is absurd. It’s not a pretty picture he paints.
    Australia’s tepid response to the growing disaster of climate change should make every thinking voters mad as hell, writes Stephen Williams.,12002
    David Crowe fills us in on the travails of the rather hapless Minister for the Environment.
    Doug Dingwall looks at the focus Cormann is putting on the APS now he has been given responsibility for it.
    David Wroe explains how that now the dust has settled on Morrison’s shock announcement that he would consider following the path set by Donald Trump on Israel and Iran, questions are turning to how this bombshell decision came about just days ahead of the Wentworth byelection.
    Jess Irvine writes that we’ve lost our stomach for tax reform. But we need to find it, or suffer the indigestion of a tax system which fails to efficiently raise the taxes we need to fund the kind of society we want to live in.
    Elizabeth Knight tells us that the increasing incidence of shareholders voting against the executive remuneration schemes is mainly about money – not corporate misbehaviour.
    Peter Hannam says that there will be nowhere for the government to hide as it will be less able to delay the release of embarrassing national carbon pollution figures after the Senate approved rolling deadlines for the quarterly data.
    Abortion will no longer be a crime in Queensland, after state MPs voted on Wednesday night to remove the procedure from the criminal code. So now it’s only NSW as the remaining holdout.
    Michael Sainsbury expands on Scott Morrison – Defender of the Faiths.
    Italy is a key risk and the country’s evolving political situation could result in a break-up of the European Union, Citi’s global head of macro strategy, Jeremy Hale, has warned.
    Wow! The IMF reports that Britain’s finances are weaker than all other nations except Portugal, and says privatisation is to blame.
    His killers were waiting when Jamal Khashoggi walked into the consulate in Istanbul, according to Turkish officials. Charming stuff!
    A repeat of the failed attempt to roll out the Australia Card threatens to follow Coalition efforts to create digital IDs for web-users, unless the government makes changes protecting privacy, a defence think tank has warned in a new report.
    Tabcorp chairman Paula Dwyer has accused investors and proxy advisers of “caucusing to undermine our leaders” after the company was hit with a strike against its pay at its annual meeting.
    And there goes another retailing franchise.
    Gutting the rights of Australian workers starts with undermining unions, and the right to collectively protest. And the recent experience of Lion Brewery workers is the case in point, writes Giri Sivaraman.
    Former Reserve Bank governor Bernie Fraser has called for a radical rethink to policy-making, saying the way to a fairer, more equal society is with a pragmatic approach. He’s turned on neoliberalism.
    Teething problems with the new $50 note should be kept to a minimum, argues the Reserve Bank after it embarked on a heavy programme of testing and engagement with industry ahead of Thursday’s launch.
    Why negligible Amazon grocery shopping savings aren’t worth the extra fees.
    Key conspirators charged in the Plutus (remember them?) tax fraud secretly controlled a separate network of labour hire firms and payroll companies that were wound up owing the tax office, former business associates have alleged.
    An astounding 93 per cent of women working in agriculture have suffered sexual harassment, taunts, victimisation and even rape.
    Here’s a contender for “Arsehole of the Week”.

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe exposes Trump’s negotiation method.

    A message form Alan Moir.

    Peter Broelman on the “administrative error”.

    Zanetti and the royal visit.

    From Matt Golding.

    Ouch! Glen Le Lievre goes for the Libs’ jugulars.

    A big catch up from Sean Leahy.

    David Pope on the passage of the TPP bill.$zoom_1%2C$multiply_1.34%2C$ratio_1.777778%2C$width_620%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/w_828/t_sharpen%2Cq_auto%2Cf_auto/6b3ec5a8dc0796ec54ade04c31bf3a44c3b95c3c
    Jon Kudelka takes us to the beach.
    Plenty of good ones in here.

  4. Audio Offers Gruesome Details of Jamal Khashoggi Killing, Turkish Official Says

    Ken Dilanian‏Verified account Follow Follow @KenDilanianNBC

    Anybody think the NSA doesn’t have this?

    Ex NSA – John Schindler‏Verified account @20committee

    NSA very likely has it. It certainly has what are called “reflections” — meaning intercepts of KSA officials talking about the crime and coverup. So, there’s no secret here for USG officials.

    Trump will ignore all this, per usual.

  5. MickMackCrack&Sack looks like he will be able to spend more time at the Parkes Elvis Festival shortly, with a leadership challenge being organised for next week

    The Nats senators will need to excuse themselves from Senate Estimates for this ritual blood letting on Tuesday morning – and isn’t there some highlights looming there. DFAT can explain what they think about a Jerusalem embassy move, Environment on their role in GBRF $444m, Defence on the submarine cost blowout……

  6. The banjo players are looking to crutch the unsuspecting sheep…

    “A NSW MP said changing leaders before the Wentworth by-election would be disastrous but would not rule out supporting Mr Joyce if a spill were called.

    Another MP criticised Mr McCormack for his decision to “promote your enemies and knife your friends.”

    “He should have picked a fight with the liberals to strengthen his position,” he said.

    One Nationals source said they doubted Mr Joyce could muster “any more than five votes” to spill the position but could not rule out a “suicide bomber attempt” which was egged on by “a small group of political morons”.

  7. The BeetRooter may emerge as leader, which according to at least one Nat, won’t be welcomed in the CWA..

    Others urged colleagues to allow Mr McCormack some “clean air” to grow into the job and said following the “revolving door of leaders” was “political suicide”.

    “The nation was disgusted at Barnaby, they were disgusted at the way he through his girlfriend and mother of his child under a bus, disgusted at him taking money to sell his story,” one MP said.

    “Imagine how disgusted they’d be at a party of government if we brought him back?

    “Why would any woman ever vote Nationals again? And that’s 50 per cent of the vote.”

  8. Mrs & Mr Wilma Slurrie

    Unbelievable. @abc730 did not report on anything from Parliament House today, when:
    Melissa Price insulted a foreign dignatory, then lied about it.
    Adam Bandt was told asking about #Nauru refugees dying was un-Parliamentary.
    Chrissy Pyne screamed ‘fuck you’ at the Labor Party.

  9. I think what surprised me most about the Qld vote re. decriminalising abortion was how many wanted to keep it as a criminal action. 50-41 is not a sweeping majority in this case.

  10. Polls have now settled at 54-46 ALP-Coal TPP as the current equilibrium. This, two months now since they blew themselves up on August 21-24. I think we can say that the voters have understood that the Coalition Government has judged itself unworthy to remain in office, and that they agree with that judgement.

  11. Fool Gilbert tweets…

    The Coalition leadership drama continues.
    Dismay among some Nats amid a move against the Deputy PM.
    A McCormack supporter to me “Barnaby is a narcissist and delusional” #auspol

  12. haha

    Mrs & Mr Wilma Slurrie

    Breaking. Media are reporting that a fake email has been circulating claiming that Melissa Price has brains and will be withdrawing from the Morrison ministry. Ms Price has denied this saying she is perfectly stupid and will remain Minister for the Environment.

  13. Barnaby Joyce figures if Trump can be a total whack job and still be president of the USA, why can’t he be DPM of lil ol Australia!

  14. Marcus Strom

    PM @ScottMorrisonMP says we should remember James Cook primarily as a scientist. And says the ‘magic of science starts with belief’

    When did he say this? Was he drunk?

  15. Thanks, BK – nice report on the failings of privatisation and neoliberaism in the UK Guardian.

    Lovely morning in Hobart, albeit a bit damp, watching the sun rise over the Derwent from my lodgings above Sandy Bay. Have a good day all.

  16. Boerwar

    A recipe for success.
    You it have to see how well the USA us travelling!
    Also Italy has fabulous leadership at the moment too. And the Italians seem to appreciate it too

  17. I’ve found the source of Morrison’s statement. It appears to have been at a presentation for “The PM’s prizes for science”. 😮

  18. National MPs are reportedly collecting numbers on a potential spill against party leader and Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack, meaning that the Coalition could face its second leadership challenge in as many months.

    According to The Sydney Morning Herald, a showdown this week is not likely, however a number of disgruntled Nationals MPs hope to either vote McCormack out or force him to resign. Former leader Barnaby Joyce has expressed interest in once again taking the job but denied agitating for a spill for it, while Agriculture Minister David Littleproud has ruled himself out.

    McCormack, for his part, has warned against destabilising the party and argued that rural communities wanted “secure and stable” government.

  19. “Plenty of excitement this week from Wentworth, but none whatsoever from BludgerTrack”….

    Amended sub-title: “No excitement whatever for the Coalition in the BludgerTrack, they continue to be heading for a solid defeat if the current 2PP in the polls is repeated on election night”

  20. booleanbach @ #14 Thursday, October 18th, 2018 – 6:19 am

    I think what surprised me most about the Qld vote re. decriminalising abortion was how many wanted to keep it as a criminal action. 50-41 is not a sweeping majority in this case.

    The LNP president has threatened members preselections if they voted for the change. Also lots of them do have fundy nutter views.

  21. Every Labor Prime Minister in my life has been more right wing than the one before: Whitlam, Hawke, Keating, Rudd, Gillard …….. after the endless support for all measures to grow the surveilance state, the support for the neo-liberal TPP , etc ……. i am not at all excited at the coming Shorten government, apart from getting rid of the LNP idiots.

    A more rational globalising liberal capitalist party, like the ALP, will do little to change the strategy and obsession with stupid “growth”.

  22. ‘ajm
    Also lots of them do have fundy nutter views.’

    Many perfectly sane people oppose abortion because it is inconsistent with their values.

  23. the ‘magic of science starts with belief’

    That’s Morrison’s approach to his idiosyncratic religion. First you believe in their philosophy, then you find ways of justifying it.

    If only he’d ‘believe’ in global warming !

  24. How far has the One Nation vote dropped since the baseball-cap wearing Mr Boats took over from Mr Harbourside Mansion? Two per cent? I think it’s guaranteed that vote has gone almost exclusively to the libs. They are cannibalising their One Nation prefs. Meanwhile small “l” libs have gone to Labor or turned Tree-tory. The upshot of that is that there may be very few Lib prefs still rattling around in the One Nation tin. We might be shocked at the next election. Maybe it’s as low as 1/3rd? If so, Newspoll was far more dire than it looked (which was bloody dire).

  25. I understand the libs were trying to organise a pre-dawn stuff-up to get the day rolling, but Scottie said that he wanted to have a sleep in.

  26. William, there are people who live and die by their poll to poll “analysis”. Every poll is exciting and significant to them, especially when it doesn’t match the little reality they’ve constructed :-P.

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