BludgerTrack: 54.0-46.0 to Labor

Plenty of excitement this week from Wentworth, but none whatsoever from BludgerTrack.

New polls from Newspoll and Ipsos have made next to no difference to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate’s reading on voting intention, unless you count 54-46 as a psychological barrier, since it was 53.9-46.1 last week. There has been no change on the seat projection, and only small movements in the primary vote – the largest being a drop from 6.6% to 5.9% for One Nation, who were down from 7% to 5% in the Ipsos poll. I still don’t have a Scott Morrison net approval trend in action yet, but Bill Shorten’s reading records a slight improvement after a somewhat stronger result from Newspoll than their previous poll three weeks ago. The preferred prime minister trend has hardly moved at all, and remains very much as it was under Malcolm Turnbull.

Full results on the link below. Note also the post below this one, dealing with the rather more interesting subject of Saturday’s Wentworth by-election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,160 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.0-46.0 to Labor”

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  1. “Every Labor Prime Minister in my life has been more right wing than the one before: Whitlam, Hawke, Keating, Rudd, Gillard”
    In retrospect, Hawke was more right-wing than Fraser. He was also more right wing than Keating. Shorten will be more right-wing than the lot, but at least he is not Albenese.

  5. Thanks as always BK. You are the best.

    From your roundup:

    ___________

    “A spokesperson for Vocus said the email could have been sent from any one of its 500,000 Dodo and iPrimus email accounts,” the ABC reported.
    ___________________

    I know there are some serious techies here – is it possible to hide the sender of the email as well as that?

  10. Good Morning

    I am gobsmacked about the lunacy of the politics within the LNP. Its at least matched that of the last days of the Gillard government.

    As for Wentworth I think that irrational and wrong email stigmatising HIV/Aids has helped the Phelps campaign.
    Its going to be interesting to watch next week as the government implodes. Its going to be close and no amount of “It was Turnbull’s fault” is going to cut it after this week.

    The government is so dysfunctional I think that we will see the government lose power with the reality of being a minority government. I just can’t see the LNP winning Wentworth after this week. Not when there is a conservative independent to choose (yes progressive conservative).

    BK thanks for your Dawn Patrol. Its good to see more open commentary by people like Bernie Fraser that neo liberalism is dead.

  11. don

    Police thanks to Brandis have access to the metadata with no need for a warrant.

    We know which ISP the email came from. I am sure the police investigation is way ahead of the public knowledge.

  12. There is a parallel between two emails.
    During Lib Leadershit an email was sent out stating that Ms Bishop was no longer in the running.
    Here we have the same meme with respect to Ms Phelps.
    Now, if you are going to concoct a disinformation email, casting doubt on whether your target is still in the game is fairly obvious.
    But still.
    A person or persons unknown has questions to answer.

  14. Certainly Liberal Prime Ministers have been becoming increasingly right wing since Fraser.

    – Menzies was socially conservative but economically Keynesian
    – His short-serving successors were by and large less socially conservative but still Keynesian
    – Fraser was seen as a radical right-winger in his time, although today’s Liberals regard him as practically a communist. When Thatcher and Reagan came to power, he was written up as a harbinger of the neoliberal revolution. However, Malcolm (the first) was socially liberal.
    – Howard – a major lurch to the right socially and economically
    – Abbott, previously regarded even by his colleagues as a nutter, dragged the party even further right. Abbott doesn’t seem to care about nor understand the economy but seems to have adopted a hard line Thatcherite position while in Opposition
    – Turnbull – fully on board the IPA/big money economic agenda. A social liberal but this did not inform his Premiership
    – Morrison – on current indications, apparently even more extreme than Abbott.

  16. Thanks, BK – nice report on the failings of privatisation and neoliberaism in the UK Guardian.

    The UK Guardian has been running long and hard on this – broadly and specifically (eg abuse of casual/contract employment). It shouldnt matter ones like or dislike of certain journalists in the Australia’s Guardian site, The Guardian is well worth the subscription for their tireless investigatory journalism work and critical comment in trying to keep the bastards accountable. I feel that if we support it more in Australia this type of deep journalism will take on here.

    I have no affiliation with The Guardian what-so-ever (other than subscriber).

  17. don

    I assume there is a police investigation underway. I don’t know there is one. If there isn’t the question should be why not?

  19. SK@8:57am
    I don’t know whether is equivalent to large women singing 🙂 but recently where JH is wheeled out Libs have lost the seat. For eg. Mayo. 🙂

  23. About Wentworth email on Phelps, it could have been sent by anybody. The suspects can be Libs, Phelps supporters, Licia supporters, some renegade or clever by half ALP supporter.

  28. I’m sorry – but ALP economic policy platform do not appear more r-w than previous.

    Getting rid of CGTG, Neg Gearing, for instance? Tax policies?

    These blanket “he’s more r-w/l-w than so and so depends wholly on what you think you ‘value’ and the policies that apply.

  29. Boerwar says:
    Thursday, October 18, 2018 at 8:20 am
    ‘ajm
    Also lots of them do have fundy nutter views.’

    Many perfectly sane people oppose abortion because it is inconsistent with their values.

    Both these statements are correct.

  30. jen

    I agree and I think Labor is centre right. I do note that Wayne Swan who has been profiled as the right wing economic view of the ALP like Bernie Fraser has said neo liberalism is dead.

    So I also think such blanket statements are wildly inaccurate

  31. Apparently it’s our turn to be charmed by the royal couple today. I had to laugh when Neil Mitchell informed us they would be going to South Melbourne beach to pick up some rubbish which has been specially put there for them by the police. How stage managed can you get?

    Mitchell also provided a little bit of evidence for my theory that this royal worship is more of a female thing than a male one. Every caller who rang in in raptures over Harry, Meghan and the coming royal child were women and all those who were totally over it already were men. Only a small sample admittedly, but still exactly what I expected.

  32. antonbruckner11@9:18am
    I never claimed to know anybody/ everybody. Richard Denniss may be a big shot in the ALP elite circles. That does not mean everybody needs to know him and it does not mean that he is always correct.

  33. @rharris tweets

    Parliament House IT system is down this morning. A server has crashed, MPs pointing out last event like this was a cyber attack, likely from China.

  35. guytaur@8:59am
    You posted that email about Phelps will benefit Phelps. Fair enough. Could the email have been sent by some Phelps supporter to “benefit her”?

  36. In terms of left wing/right wing values … I have a suspicion that the current ALP (like all hopeful govts) simply reacts to/reflects the prevailing public mood.

    A good govt will have the current mood as a starting point then slowly manoeuvre the electorate in the direction it intend to take … while I hated Howard, this is something he understood well … WorkChoices (one of the directions he always wanted to take) was introduced too suddenly and radically and the electorate (rightly) balked.

    I think we need to wait for 3 or more years before making pronouncements on the character of a Shorten govt (should it hopefully eventuate).

  39. Thanks yet again, BK, for all the links you dig up for us at such an early hour of every morning. Especially this one today:

    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/will-wentworth-force-the-morrison-government-to-act-on-climate,12002

    A concise summary of what our planet Earth is in for if we keep “cantering” down the “business as usual” cliff top track the Morrison COALition Government is guiding us down:

    ————————————-
    To summarise: things are bad now and they are definitely going to get worse. The only question is — how bad are we going to let them get?

    Our planet has experienced 1°C of warming already and we are on course for the nightmare of at least 3°C of warming under the current Paris Agreement pledges. The Paris Agreement pledges are therefore pathetic, yet Australia may not even reach that woeful target.

    At the current rate of warming, the world will hit 1.5° by about 2040.

    The IPCC’s new report says that it will take heroic efforts to have a reasonable chance of levelling off at 1.5° of warming, yet even that level of warming represents a somewhat bleak future and cannot be called safe.

    From the IPCC media release:

    ‘Limiting global warming to 1.5°C would require rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society.’
    And:

    ‘Global net human-caused emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) would need to fall by about 45 per cent from 2010 levels by 2030, reaching ‘net zero’ around 2050.’

    And that’s for a 66 per cent chance of a still-nasty 1.5° rise. Would you fly on a plane if there was a 66 per cent chance of landing safely? Given Australia’s share of the world’s carbon budget, we would have to reach zero net emissions by 2038 to have that 66 per cent chance of limiting warming to 1.5°.

    What would 1.5° of warming look like?

    Things are bad enough with our current 1° of warming, but at 1.5°:

    coral reefs are likely to decline by 70-90 per cent;
    there will be more heatwaves, floods and droughts;
    agriculture and fisheries will suffer;
    it will be more difficult for poor nations to drag themselves out of poverty; and
    there will be more climate refugees.
    Obviously, every small increase in warming is bad news because the environment does not recognise arbitrary measures like 1.5° or 2°. Moreover, we don’t know where the tipping points might be that could cause uncontrollable accelerations in warming.
    —————————————

    How could anyone possibly justify putting the COALition candidate above anyone except One Nation on their ballot paper?

  40. Ven

    The email is irrational fraud in an election campaign. Likely breaches several laws.

    So in irrational land any camp is suspect.

  41. I don’t know whether is equivalent to large women singing but recently where JH is wheeled out Libs have lost the seat. For eg. Mayo.

    Not even Turnbull could save Mayo.
    Where is that sarcasm emoji when you need it?

  42. Ven

    Richard Denniss may be a big shot in the ALP elite circles.

    That’s nonsense. I’m no elite. I respect his opinion after paying attention for a few years.

  43. Jen

    Sorry I was speaking economically from policies already released.

    I am not foretelling what Labor will look like in three years time. I hope you are right that we will be in a far better place by then. 🙂

  44. Am I allowed to compare Mitch Marsh stats to the much maligned Shane Watson? I am fairly sure I havent done it for a while. At lease a week.

  45. I know the Nationals are nuts, but is it wise to turn around and stick Joyce back in after less than half a year in the dog house? It will bring all the issues that forced him to resign back into focus.

  46. The only poll for the week (Newspoll) shows a 1% lift in the Coalition’s pv and a drop of 1% in Labor’s pv, yet Bludgertrack has Labor increasing its 2pp to 54%. A bit of a surprise, but I can live with it.

  47. @JoshButler tweets

    Darren Chester speaking on Nationals leadership drama: I’d suggest to the press gallery, if someone comes to you as an unnamed source, surely you have to ask if they benefit from these comments, and if they do, surely as a journalist you have to put their name on the record

  48. @SimonKatich The PM 6 times removed seems like a bit of a stretch, why can’t they use a more recent… oh right, um…, why can’t they use a former member for went… never mind!

  49. When did he say this? Was he drunk?

    Drunk on faith.
    Well your faith was strong but you needed proof
    You saw her bathing on the roof

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