BludgerTrack: 54.0-46.0 to Labor

Plenty of excitement this week from Wentworth, but none whatsoever from BludgerTrack.

New polls from Newspoll and Ipsos have made next to no difference to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate’s reading on voting intention, unless you count 54-46 as a psychological barrier, since it was 53.9-46.1 last week. There has been no change on the seat projection, and only small movements in the primary vote – the largest being a drop from 6.6% to 5.9% for One Nation, who were down from 7% to 5% in the Ipsos poll. I still don’t have a Scott Morrison net approval trend in action yet, but Bill Shorten’s reading records a slight improvement after a somewhat stronger result from Newspoll than their previous poll three weeks ago. The preferred prime minister trend has hardly moved at all, and remains very much as it was under Malcolm Turnbull.

Full results on the link below. Note also the post below this one, dealing with the rather more interesting subject of Saturday’s Wentworth by-election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,160 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.0-46.0 to Labor”

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  1. Very disappointed in the Guardian, and sent them an email to express same.

    Not a royalist but looking through their photo essay of the visit, in all the group shots – excepting crowd shots – all the participants and partners are named except the one with the GG, his wife and Ian Thorpe, Ian’s partner is shown and not named.

    I thought this kind of erasure was over, particularly in the Guardian.

  2. From Barrie Cassidy. “First Q for the PM. He said electing an Ind would cause chaos and instability. Do we now tolerate that or have an election to address it?”

  3. Watcha is watching Morrison and Frydenberg talking absolute crap on ABC about the fantastic days ahead and how this is a minor setback.

    If anyone has ever seen a person as embarrassed as Sharma as he stands nearby and listens I’ll be so surprised.

    He was particularly embarrassed by all the cuddles Morrison and Frydenberg were giving each other and him.

    Actually, it was a very sad sight.

  4. May there be another vote in the House to refer Peter Dutton’s eligibility to the High Court.

    Perhaps Julia Banks and Kerryn Phelps would vote Yes.

  5. The Opera House is a good backdrop for the Opening of the Invictus Games. The athletes are seated front and centre to the stage and the whole thing looks great.

  6. Poroti
    It was the best thing he said all night.At least he recognises that Jones and co are toxic and just spout extreme right wing rubbish all the time. They need to break ties with the whole lot of them in my opinion.

  7. Scummo is doing okay his speech at Invictus but….he is sounding very preacherlike crossed with Aussie blokey.

    Nah, scratch that. By the end he was embarrassing,

  8. Keneally said it was worse than Turnbulls election victory speech. Just a shouty, ignorant, contradictive speech showing he had learnt nothing from the result.

  9. This holy roller preacherman must be replaced as Prime Minister. He is nuts. He used the example of these athletes as an inspiration when we (he means dole-bludgers and lazy peasants) are faced with challenges (i.e. don’t wanna get out of bed in the morning).

    Yuck, double Yuck.
    And it is not like people with disabilities actually welcome being used as a rod to beat the backs of the supposed lazy.

  10. steve davis @ #2121 Saturday, October 20th, 2018 – 9:30 pm

    Keneally said it was worse than Turnbulls election victory speech. Just a shouty, ignorant, contradictive speech showing he had learnt nothing from the result.

    It was awful. He was almost into Billy Graham mode, and any minute I expected him to start yollering ‘in tongues’. I tell you one of these times it is going to happen.

  11. Trump Junior is half to three quarters of the way between Turnbull and Dutton.He pleases each side to an extent,obviously just left enough of Dutton to appease just enough moderates from the RWNJs but only by 5 votes.

  12. I am just so disappointed. I expected this show to go on all night. It barely lasted more than an hour.

    What am I going to do with 20 kg of fresh popcorn? It won’t keep till the election 🙁

  13. Richo says he has never seen a result like this for his 50 yrs in politics. Trump juniors speech shoutily blames Bill Shorten.This bloke truly is a nutter.

  14. Maybe the Libs thought that voters would still vote for them hoping they would return to the fold after they knifed their favourite son.Surely they couldnt be that naive.

  15. If Scott Morrison thinks a few of his glib words, repeated endlessly and inanely, will turn people back on to the Liberal Party, he has another think coming!

  16. I remember when that right wing nutter Paul Murray said on Sky News he believed the Turnbull government will be re elected comfortably at the next election.

    Labor was 53-47 and had won over 3o Newspolls at the time.

    He is that thick he probably thinks Morrison will do the same even now.

    Also the MSM will still back Morrison after this result without question further diminishing any credibility they have left. They need to have a long hard look at themselves siding with this rabble.

  17. Its sad to say but some punters blame both parties for their decision/policies hence more independents having a chance of winning like tonight. In the end though the independent still sides with one party or the other anyway.

  18. I can’t remember a week of such concentrated shitfulness over such a wide range of subjects under Tones and Eleventy. Which is remarkable considering the consistency of their shitfulness. This week was like Morrison looked back at how shit they were over a period of months and took it as a challenge to concentrate that into 7 days. And proceeded to knock it out of the park.

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