BludgerTrack: 54.0-46.0 to Labor

Plenty of excitement this week from Wentworth, but none whatsoever from BludgerTrack.

New polls from Newspoll and Ipsos have made next to no difference to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate’s reading on voting intention, unless you count 54-46 as a psychological barrier, since it was 53.9-46.1 last week. There has been no change on the seat projection, and only small movements in the primary vote – the largest being a drop from 6.6% to 5.9% for One Nation, who were down from 7% to 5% in the Ipsos poll. I still don’t have a Scott Morrison net approval trend in action yet, but Bill Shorten’s reading records a slight improvement after a somewhat stronger result from Newspoll than their previous poll three weeks ago. The preferred prime minister trend has hardly moved at all, and remains very much as it was under Malcolm Turnbull.

Full results on the link below. Note also the post below this one, dealing with the rather more interesting subject of Saturday’s Wentworth by-election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,160 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.0-46.0 to Labor”

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  3. The Libs will be celebrating/commiserating in a hotel in Double Bay. I thought Robert Ball said earlier they’d be somewhere else.

  4. Jen. Earth has been in the sweet spot for more than 4 billion years yet biological life spawned just once.

    Sure they estimate there are millions of earth like planets in the galaxy and millions of such galaxies so the statistical argument is that there should be microbiological life somewhere in the universe.

    The arguement has a flaw. Something that has happened once in 4 billions years does not equate to something happening every 4 billion years. Further, there is no evidence of other forms of life.

    There is the counter argument that we are not able to detect the evidence of life outside the solar system. True. But if you can’t prove it exists and it isn’t detectable what are you left with? Belief? Hope?

    We are, in practice, alone. Bound to all other living things on the planet (and perhaps in the solar system) with a common ancestor cell that formed through a process we do not yet (close tho) understand. It’s beautiful and humbling and in no way arrogant.

  5. Sohar saysSaturday, October 20, 2018 at 5:13 pm

    “@deniseshrivell
    Is it true that if a swing of 17% against the Libs is carried to all other seats, Julie Bishop will be the only Lib to survive the next Federal election? #wentworthvotes #auspol”

    In which case she’ll finally achieve her ambition to be party leader.

  6. “Sharma has Stop Adani signs behind him. Is he opposed to the mine? That puts him at odds with his party!”
    Sharma certainly didn’t want the Stop Adani signs. They were held up by Get Up supporters.

  7. Yes Simon … but … you qualified ‘life’ as being of a certain kind. We cannot assume that. That is where my suggestion of ‘arrogance’ comes in.

    We perceive life according to our experience on Earth.

  10. Sharma certainly didn’t want the Stop Adani signs. They were held up by Get Up supporters.

    Well GetUp made it look like Sharma was opposed to the mine and wanted it stopped.

  13. Confessions @ #2060 Saturday, October 20th, 2018 – 6:35 pm

    Sharma certainly didn’t want the Stop Adani signs. They were held up by Get Up supporters.

    Well GetUp made it look like Sharma was opposed to the mine and wanted it stopped.

    Veerrry interestink.

    But — the universe/s may exist in all times and all spaces -or something.

    I have a bag of Potato Crisps and a bottle of a recent vintage Creaming Soda and am about to settle back and listen to Mr. Zimmerman playing the part of a sacrificial virgin goat and ABC24. 😍

  14. TURN OFF THE ABC LIVE COVERAGE BACKGROUND!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    THOSE THINGS LOOK LIKE TRIANGLES HAVING IT ON BENEATH A BLANKET!!!!!!!!!!!!

  20. Is Julian Assange nuts, stupid or bad person? He launches legal action against Ecuador government for human right violations. He lived in their embassy for more than 5 years. He doe not have any gratitude in his bones.

  41. Alex Turnbull has just put the boot in with this tweet.
    “Incredible result and proud of the people of Wentworth. A hearty congratulations to @drkerrynphelps who fought a great campaign. A great day for Australian democracy.”

  44. SK, from what I understand is that ‘life’ started on Earth as soon as the conditions were suitable for life. Because it happened so quickly after it could, I suspect it may be common ‘out there’.

    It did take Earth another 3billion years to develop multicellular life so complex life may be a lot less common.

  45. BK

    Best comment from Alex was in response to Sharri Markson moaning about him not agreeing to appear on her Sky show. He said he knows how she operates and “would rather eat broken glass”. I bet Murdoch orcs are not used to that sort of bluntness ! 🙂

  46. So, back to serious matters because summer beckons

    The Sheffield Shield competition needs to be the premier competition – and not put in recess for 20/20

    If it is to be put in recess then 5 day games need to be played at the same time as the hit and giggle competition

    The players identified as Test prospects only play the Sheffield Shield competition – and the complementary 5 day matches

    They do not play hit and giggle competitions including One Day games

    They are identified and educated to bat time – and hopefully average over 50 because of this exclusive concentration and not sub 40 which is the benchmark for curent selections

    Having our young players play Shield (which then goes into recess thru December and January for 20/20!!!), One Day and 20/20 is not doing them or Australian cricket any favours – hence our record since the Shield competition has been trashed and hit and giggle has become the focus

    If they are First Class cricketers they play First Class cricket and that is their absolute priority – with the next step as Test cricket which is the ultimate pinnacle and the reason they play

    And they are so remunerated

    As with the silver sooon Liberal Party, Cricket Australia is in decay and dysfunctional

  47. Take that youse Quincelanders 🙂 ……..Although truth be told the !!@@#!#@@!# NSW ‘property developers’ make their northern version look like amateurs.

    “LNP makes it worse for PM
    PETER VAN ONSELEN

    The white shoe brigade from the sunshine state has long been a disease on the conservative side of politics.”
    https://outline.com/EqC5tn

  48. So sad and very cruel. Speers just asked Laundy “Are there any booths with a swing less than 20% ?” . 😆 ……………. the answer was ‘NO”

  50. poroti,

    The white shoe brigade from the sunshine state has long been a disease on the conservative side of politics

    Us Queenslanders are doing the country a favour, long may we infect conservative politics.

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