BludgerTrack: 54.0-46.0 to Labor

Plenty of excitement this week from Wentworth, but none whatsoever from BludgerTrack.

New polls from Newspoll and Ipsos have made next to no difference to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate’s reading on voting intention, unless you count 54-46 as a psychological barrier, since it was 53.9-46.1 last week. There has been no change on the seat projection, and only small movements in the primary vote – the largest being a drop from 6.6% to 5.9% for One Nation, who were down from 7% to 5% in the Ipsos poll. I still don’t have a Scott Morrison net approval trend in action yet, but Bill Shorten’s reading records a slight improvement after a somewhat stronger result from Newspoll than their previous poll three weeks ago. The preferred prime minister trend has hardly moved at all, and remains very much as it was under Malcolm Turnbull.

Full results on the link below. Note also the post below this one, dealing with the rather more interesting subject of Saturday’s Wentworth by-election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,160 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.0-46.0 to Labor”

Comments Page 41 of 44
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  2. procket_ says:
    Saturday, October 20, 2018 at 4:24 pm
    This is the Wentworth version of the ‘democracy sausage’..

    Bunnings sausage sizzles around that way are probably gourmet affairs.

    And there’s the old saying “Double Bay, double pay”.

  5. I built my first LP, of a chlorine/hydrocarbon chemical plant, in 1969, running on the IBM360 bureau in Houston. Next one was a quarrying/concrete operation in 1972, on the Control Data bureau in Miller St, North Sydney. That one is still being used, and ‘serviced’ by me, only running on a laptop, as are most of the following.

    In the intervening years I have buit Ops Research models for many oil refiners, coal miners, margarine producers, flour millers, industrial minerals companies, milk products outfits, bread & etc. bakers, bottle blowers, stock feeders, and so on. I have built big models for little companies like Boeing, one of Australia’s largest private health organisations, and several power companies. I have built simulated annealing models for Aus Post, and several schools and universities for timetabling.

    Yes but Player One runs a guest house and talks smack on the Internet.

    Who is to say who has done more with their life?

  9. Sprocket_ says:
    Saturday, October 20, 2018 at 5:02 pm

    Where do you live nath?
    ____________________
    I live in East Melbourne and the Mornington Peninsula.

  10. Bludgers may like to know that out in the West Labor campaigns have been in action. Today we door knocked in Pearce for Kim Travers. The location has been canvassed relatively recently – during the State election – and the response today was really favourable for Labor, even more favourable than last year. Voters are certainly aware of the significance of the Wentworth by-election and, against that background, quite ready to evince an intention to vote Labor at the coming election, whenever it’s held.

    Voters mentioned a wide range of issues during our canvassing, including health (several times), penalty rates (also several times), climate change, utility and fuel prices, and the lack of pay rises for working people.

    The rate of rejection/declines was low and, where this occurred, was without the rancour sometimes seen in the past. In couple of instances, conversations could be said to have been “persuasive”, and to have shifted voting intention from Liberal to Labor.

    The take-away for me was that voters are forming their intentions, and that intention will be to change the government. This will likely prove to be even more decisive than the 2017 State result, where swings in the order of 15-18-20% were recorded in the area door-knocked today.

    It’s also very obvious that the Liberals absolutely cannot match Labor’s face-to-face campaigning. They do not have the human resources nor the financial resources to compete.

  12. Katharine Murphy‏Verified account @murpharoo · 2m2 minutes ago

    Dear #auspol We will be covering #WentworthVotes live tonight with @gabriellechan in command of Politics Live, @annefdavies on the ground in Sydney, and news and commentary from me. Look forward to hearing from you as the night goes on @GuardianAus

  14. Mornington Peninsula, sounds a lovely place.
    .
    .
    Flesh-eating epidemic escalates
    OCTOBER 19, 2018
    The mysterious flesh-eating bug epidemic infecting Victoria’s Mornington Peninsula continues to worsen,

    Last year saw 277 cases of ­Buruli ulcer, also known locally as Bairnsdale ulcer. Data released by Victoria’s Department of Health and Human Services shows 49 new cases were diagnosed in the past four weeks, and medical experts fear the total number of cases could push 400 for the year.
    https://outline.com/fCpRkC

  19. Sprocket_ says:
    Saturday, October 20, 2018 at 5:10 pm

    nath, so you shuttle between Toorak and Sorrento? Explains a lot.
    ________________________
    lol, not quite, surrey hills and mount martha.

  20. “@deniseshrivell
    Is it true that if a swing of 17% against the Libs is carried to all other seats, Julie Bishop will be the only Lib to survive the next Federal election? #wentworthvotes #auspol”

  21. Puffytmd says:
    Saturday, October 20, 2018 at 3:29 pm
    Are there any Bludgers in Wentworth with anything to report?

    One of my children was handing out for Labor for a few hours this morning. He reported:

    – sentiment for Labor was friendly
    – the Phelps campaign had the greatest number of volunteers
    – the Liberals were as objectionable as usual
    – the Greens were badly under-resourced
    – in his booth he thought Labor and Liberal would roughly match each other, but that Phelps would come out ahead of both
    – voter traffic had been steady all morning but not heavy
    – voters are thoroughly “over” the election, driven well past the point of irritation by robo-calling, campaign literature and political advertising

  22. poroti, that ulcer is also on the Bellarine Peninula and Gippsland, it’s a serious issue and struck down people most horribly. To wish that someone contract it is really going too far. An equivalent to someone getting cancer. If my posts have upset people that much then I suggest that they seek psychiatric help.

  24. One of my children was handing out for Labor for a few hours this morning. He reported:

    My mother lives in Wentworth and has said previously Team Phelps clearly have the greater numbers of volunteers.

  25. Sharma’s odds have drifted out of the day and have firmed a little in the last hour on thin volume. Don’t really think there’s any new information driving that.
    For entertainment over the evening, I’ve got a bet on Sharma to win and one for Bishop to take the leadership. It feels like hedged position but we’ll see.

  26. Confessions says:
    Saturday, October 20, 2018 at 5:08 pm
    briefly:

    That sounds very encouraging!

    It is highly encouraging, fess. It also reflects very well on the Pearce/Travers campaign, which seems very well organised and effectively run on-the-ground.

    Some of my friends have been campaigning elsewhere in Pearce (PB’s grimace, for one) and report similar things. It does help that Kim Travers is such a good candidate. The more I see of her the more I like her. She will be an outstanding MP…all going well. I hope to door knock for her most weekends between now and the election.

  28. Thanks, Briefly.

    I could not find any reports on Twitter of happy Libs, so I guess they will not be ordering champagne tonight. Maybe they will hit the turps to block the experience out for a few hours.

    Excuse me while I get out my stock of sympathy.

    Oh Noze, the cupboard is bare!

    briefly @ #2021 Saturday, October 20th, 2018 – 4:43 pm

    Puffytmd says:
    Saturday, October 20, 2018 at 3:29 pm
    Are there any Bludgers in Wentworth with anything to report?

    One of my children was handing out for Labor for a few hours this morning. He reported:

    – sentiment for Labor was friendly
    – the Phelps campaign had the greatest number of volunteers
    – the Liberals were as objectionable as usual
    – the Greens were badly under-resourced
    – in his booth he thought Labor and Liberal would roughly match each other, but that Phelps would come out ahead of both
    – voter traffic had been steady all morning but not heavy
    – voters are thoroughly “over” the election, driven well past the point of irritation by robo-calling, campaign literature and political advertising

  29. Today’s Mumble with no prediction for Wentworth.

    The Liberal Party is wisely claiming underdog status, and it probably believes that. Betting markets suggest its internal polling has revealed a woeful picture. But seat polling, internal and public, is hit and miss.

    There’s a whopping swing on the way, with the irony largely lost that it was caused by a miserable 3.7 per cent swing in Longman in July.

    Any of the three main candidates could emerge victorious today. Notwithstanding punters’ anticipations noted above, it’s more realistic to put the chances of each at under 50 per cent. (The 13 per cent punters give “others” should be more like 1 per cent.)

    In other words, each of the three will probably lose. But one of them must win. We’ll probably know which one tonight.

    https://insidestory.org.au/a-by-election-that-really-matters/

  30. poroti says:
    Saturday, October 20, 2018 at 5:24 pm

    nath

    If you read what I wrote there is nothing about wanting/wishing/hoping/praying that someone/anyone gets it.
    ________________________
    Yes, apologies, It was sprocket who then expressed a desire for me to die or have a limb amputated.

  31. poroti says: Saturday, October 20, 2018 at 5:24 pm

    nath

    If you read what I wrote there is nothing about wanting/wishing/hoping/praying that someone/anyone gets it.

    *************************************************************************

    Few things are more irritating than when someone who is wrong is also very effective in making his point.

    Mark Twain

    Surf On Poroti 🙂

  33. Simon – by using the term “insignificant”, I was not meaning the truly wondrous biology that is life – I was more talking about the ‘singular’ insignificance of our arrogant self-perception.

    The size and variety within the ‘known’ universe is unfathomable. We are on a planet with such amazing variety, which is added to constantly as our technology allows us ‘discover’ more. We understand very little of other life forms and cannot communicate directly with any of them (e.g. dogs might understand us, perhaps, but we certainly do not understand them).

    To arrogantly believe our Earth is the only place where ‘life’ dwells, is, to my mind ignorant and … well … stupid. And in our arrogance, we expect any extra-terrestrial life will resemble us/ours – when clearly that is a very ignorant assumption.

    So any deity we ‘invent’ pertains to us as a species – reflecting our desires and perception and ultimately our fear of individual mortality. We have set up whole rafts of rituals, writings etc to delude ourselves into a hope of immortality.

    The above (at times, tongue-in-cheek) discussion on ‘heaven’ proves that.

  34. The reason I miss Mega George’s regular msm column is his insight, but at least we still can access it in tweet form. 🙂

    George Megalogenis@GMegalogenis
    5h5 hours ago
    Some thoughts on why Scott Morrison’s first few weeks as prime minister have been among the worst in our history.

    As the third PM in the short life of this damaged government, his challenge was to take politics off the front page and get to work on a third term agenda. 1/10

    https://twitter.com/GMegalogenis/status/1053458285158776832

  35. We don’t get much of the Bairnsdale/Buruli ulcer in SA. It seems to be in every other state. It’s a mycobacterium like TB and leprosy. I can’t see how it is transmitted.

  36. To add to the evenings intrigue, a hung(70 Lab) parliament is a step closer to referring 10 + LNPs to the HC for taking no steps to renounce citizenship under s44.

    I assume Canadian (like Larrisa Waters) born Sharma has already done so.

  40. jenauthor says:
    Saturday, October 20, 2018 at 1:11 pm
    Briefly/Ronzy

    My biggest argument against deity is the assumption that humanity is the ‘centre of the universe’ therefore a belief system based on a connection to humanity is ridiculous.

    Oh, I completely agree, jen.

    My remarks reflect the sets of knowledge that we now have – knowledge that makes it possible for us to compare ourselves with “the utter vastness of the known universe.”

  41. I was speculating that my wife and I do not know any single mothers living in East Melbourne

    Fortunately it is the eastern suburbs of Melbourne not East Melbourne!!!

    Phew!!!!

  43. jenauthor
    So any deity we ‘invent’ pertains to us as a species – reflecting our desires and perception and ultimately our fear of individual mortality. We have set up whole rafts of rituals, writings etc to delude ourselves into a hope of immortality.
    ________________________________
    It’s why the Pyramids were invented, to cheat death. It’s what drives a lot of religious sentiment and for understandable reasons. To be promised to be reunited with loved ones who have died strikes people very strongly. But when you see the anguish of a parent who loses a child, you know that they know that they will never see them again. If you really believed that Heaven and immortality and family reunion awaited us, it would not hurt like it does.

  44. Ronzy says:
    Saturday, October 20, 2018 at 1:27 pm
    briefly
    Saturday, October 20, 2018 at 12:43 pm

    The words I used were taken directly from the article.

    Mine were all my own.

  46. sprocket_ says:
    Saturday, October 20, 2018 at 5:45 pm

    nath, if the Bairnsdale/Buruli condition would lead to you to pissing off, we can only hope and pray
    _______________________________
    You must love Bill Shorten a lot to hope for such a thing. Love that hot is more like passion.

  47. P1

    Prof TG Hunter, of Sydney Uni Chem Eng, begged the IBM1460 from IBM after it was displayed in a tech expo in the Sydney Showgrounds. It was first installed in ‘old’ Chem Eng’ between the Men’s Union and Manning in 1962, where I first used it. In 1963, after ‘new’ Chem Eng was completed, over City Rd towards Redfern station, it was moved there. We were the first faculty in the uni to have a ‘real’ computer. Physics had ‘SILLIAC’ which was diode based, but it’s capability was trivial.

    It was not a full commercial machine, only having tape input and output, plus a golfball typewriter for direct machine instruction. It was ‘booted’ from a loop of linen tape, hung from a coathanger stuck in the ceiling. It had no disk drive or printer, unlike the commercial models. We had tape punches, and tape reader/printers.

  50. It would be funny if Yabba and PlayerOne had once been hot and heavy on the top of a 1960’s IBM back in the day and have forgotten about it.

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