BludgerTrack: 54.0-46.0 to Labor

Plenty of excitement this week from Wentworth, but none whatsoever from BludgerTrack.

New polls from Newspoll and Ipsos have made next to no difference to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate’s reading on voting intention, unless you count 54-46 as a psychological barrier, since it was 53.9-46.1 last week. There has been no change on the seat projection, and only small movements in the primary vote – the largest being a drop from 6.6% to 5.9% for One Nation, who were down from 7% to 5% in the Ipsos poll. I still don’t have a Scott Morrison net approval trend in action yet, but Bill Shorten’s reading records a slight improvement after a somewhat stronger result from Newspoll than their previous poll three weeks ago. The preferred prime minister trend has hardly moved at all, and remains very much as it was under Malcolm Turnbull.

Full results on the link below. Note also the post below this one, dealing with the rather more interesting subject of Saturday’s Wentworth by-election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,160 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.0-46.0 to Labor”

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  1. Ronzy
    So Nath, although I am not able to give a definitive answer as to what heaven will be like, I am quite sure there will be much singing accompanied by musical instruments.
    __________________________

    I wouldn’t want too much singing, particularly by those that aren’t very good at it. But you might be on to something with the trumpets and harps. I’m hoping recorded music will be allowed, perhaps a spotify service of some kind. I wonder if you could listen/play any Black Sabbath? I mean look at their War Pigs song, it’s got a message of peace and hatred for violence with an appeal to god. Surely that’s gotta be allowed?

    Gen’rals gathered in their masses,
    Just like witches at black masses
    Evil minds that plot destruction,
    Sorcerer of death’s construction
    In the fields the bodies burning,
    As the war machine keeps turning
    Death and hatred to mankind,
    Poisoning their brainwashed minds
    Oh Lord yeah

  2. Ronzy, you say

    “Psalm 150 is all about the use of musical instruments when praising God. In this respect it makes no sense to encourage the use of musical instruments on earth and not have them in heaven.

    So, although I am not able to give a definitive answer as to what heaven will be like, I am quite sure there will be much singing accompanied by musical instruments.”

    Following your ineffable logic then, Psalm 137 is about the happiness to be gained, in the sight of god, by bashing babies against rocks. So you would say “So, although I am not able to give a definitive answer as to what heaven will be like, I am quite sure there will be much opportunity for happiness to be gained by bashing Babylonian babies against rocks.”

    Sorry about the ineffable there, I must be wrong, because I just wrote it out. Oh well, can’t be write all the time.

  3. Yabba @ #1947 Saturday, October 20th, 2018 – 2:58 pm

    I mean, hate that deep, and given to us in ‘his’ word like that, must be even more a proof of the potential existence of god than even the existence of love, if I follow you correctly. But that is, of course, a paradox, in that it is almost impossible for me to follow you at all.

    You do realize how futile it is to try and use the bible to prove the nonexistence of god, right? 🙂

  4. – – I am quite sure there will be much singing accompanied by musical instruments. – –
    Then bed flutes.

    Weird, all this talk of religion, love, singing, music reminded me of a Cat Stevens song I haven’t listened to in decades. And I only ever heard it from a scratched vinyl…. until now…. Dated? Yes. But memorable still….
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j8zoi9_NkY0

    And for more nostalgia – Yusuf still has it…. and still and environmentalist…
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PiiZrZTrOFY

  5. Player One @ #1955 Saturday, October 20th, 2018 – 3:25 pm

    Yabba @ #1947 Saturday, October 20th, 2018 – 2:58 pm

    I mean, hate that deep, and given to us in ‘his’ word like that, must be even more a proof of the potential existence of god than even the existence of love, if I follow you correctly. But that is, of course, a paradox, in that it is almost impossible for me to follow you at all.

    You do realize how futile it is to try and use the bible to prove the nonexistence of god, right? 🙂

    P1,

    I realise far more than you are capable of even beginning to imagine. I am just amusing myself, in a short break from putting together a simulated annealing/neural network model of a world-wide package delivery service. Using that dreaded ‘artificial intelligence’ stuff. Scary.

    cheers,

  6. What if a woman’s husband died and she remarries. Decades later all 3 end up in heaven. Which marriage is sacred in god’s law now? Is there polyamory in Heaven for cases such as this? Is there sex in heaven? Where can I get a decent coffee? Will I have to work, and have a job? making musical instruments and coffee? Where do we get the wood we need? What will the sewerage network be for billions upon billions of people. It’s exhausting.

  7. Puffytmd Only this:

    j341983 says:
    Saturday, October 20, 2018 at 2:45 pm
    All I can say is from my friends in the electorate is the mood against the Libs is toxic.

  8. GeorgeBludger on the mark.

    LMAO“Malcolm must go!”“Malcolm must go!”“Malcolm must go!”“Malcolm must go!”Malcolm goes“Malcolm should be helping!”“Malcolm should be helping!”“Malcolm should be helping!”“Malcolm should be helping!" https://t.co/4lGpYPYt9e— Schloss Lulzville Schadenfreude (@GeorgeBludger) 19 October 2018

  9. Yabba @ #1958 Saturday, October 20th, 2018 – 3:30 pm

    I realise far more than you are capable of even beginning to imagine. I am just amusing myself, in a short break from putting together a simulated annealing/neural network model of a world-wide package delivery service. Using that dreaded ‘artificial intelligence’ stuff. Scary.

    You are so full of yourself I’m surprised you can find clothes to fit.

    Oh, and by the way – my thesis was in neural networks and artificial intelligence, probably completed before you were even born. Twat.

  10. Oh, and by the way – my thesis was in neural networks and artificial intelligence, probably completed before you were even born. Twat.

    He seems to have struck a nerve. The ice queen of Torquay has a nerve. Who knew?

    Your impressive academic pedigree seems to have stood you in good stead. You run a guest house and provide snark on a blog. Well done.

  11. Tom Switzerland
    Today’s Liberals have to persuade the people to rediscover the concept of value for money and stop thinking of spending as a good in itself. They have to stress how lower taxes and an entrepreneurial culture can help raise productivity, attract investment and buffer us against economic headwinds. And they have to tell voters that it is only the Liberal Party that will create the best conditions for enterprise and wealth creation to enable them to improve themselves. It sides with the people against government and all should be given the chance to make the most in life.

    Does Tom troll himself?

  12. It’s very ironic, but completely to be expected, that no sooner had I posted how much I was enjoying the intelligent exchanges on PB, within 24 hours it all fell into a nasty, backbiting heap. Must remember never to become complacent again.

  13. Player One:

    [‘You are so full of yourself I’m surprised you can find clothes to fit’]

    Please settle.

    Yes, “Yabba’s” an old has been, but that doesn’t give you the right to call him out thereof(?). Couched differently, you may end up an old has-been yourself. I doubt it; but it’s nevertheless possible.

  14. Player One @ #1784 Saturday, October 20th, 2018 – 7:37 am

    swamprat @ #1801 Saturday, October 20th, 2018 – 11:32 am

    Barney

    You are very lucky. I love vietnamese food.

    They probably even have nice sausages.

    Just don’t ask what’s in them! 🙁

    With there being less cultural barriers about what is food, the food is always labelled and named as what it is.

    The Vietnamese sausages in the south are usually sweet rather than savoury, so they’re not to my taste. 🙂

  15. Aunt Mavis @ #1970 Saturday, October 20th, 2018 – 3:46 pm

    Yes, “Yabba’s” an old has been, but that doesn’t give you the right to call him out thereof(?). Couched differently, you may end up an old has-been yourself. I doubt it; but it’s nevertheless possible.

    Actually, I imagine Yabba is quite young. Certainly his posts would seem to indicate so. However, when someone starts a post with a statement as fatuous as “I realise far more than you are capable of even beginning to imagine” then my inner has-been just naturally gets a bit riled 🙂

  16. Nicholas
    Your impressive academic pedigree seems to have stood you in good stead. You run a guest house and provide snark on a blog. Well done.
    __________________________________
    Ouch! You had me at guest house. Ever wanted to join an online gang? 🙂

  17. One point from Switzer’s column that sums up the right having no idea:

    Conventional wisdom at Fairfax, The Guardian and the ABC holds that last year’s same-sex marriage postal-survey triumph means the nation has changed in a more progressive direction. A byelection defeat today, the argument goes, would strengthen those claims.

    I agree there hasn’t been a recent change of the nation in more progressive direction.

    It was never to the right to begin with. 2013 wasn’t a vote for Abbott and right wing austerity policies, but a vote against Labor.

  18. John Reidy

    Yes it is weird, and can’t last surely, but on many issues BOTH major parties are to the right of the Australian population.

  19. From the god bothering front line a rather embarrassing ooops .

    Muslims prayed in wrong direction for 37 years in village in Turkey’s west

    ……………………..A team from the mufti’s office confirmed last month that the mihrab, a semicircular niche in the wall of a mosque indicating the qibla, had been built in the wrong place when the mosque was built.

    Instead of demolishing parts of the mosque to correct the mihrab, officials opted for an improptu solution and put white strips on the carpet indicating the right direction for prayer.

    “We have explained the situation to our congregation and most of them have reacted positively to our solution,” Kaya told the agency.
    http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/muslims-prayed-in-wrong-direction-for-37-years-in-turkeys-west-137970

  20. Player One:

    [‘Actually, I imagine Yabba is quite young. Certainly his posts would seem to indicate so.’]

    I very much doubt that, Player.

    Being an old hasbeen like Yabba, I know one when I almost see one. He/she certainly didn’t come down in the last shower, like, for instance, GG, BB.

    Anyway, please keep it above personalities.

  21. Yabba @ #1947 Saturday, October 20th, 2018 – 2:58 pm

    Ronzy,

    Your attention is drawn to Psalm 137 8-9 from ‘the word of god’.

    8 O, Daughter of Babylon, you despoiler,
    Happy is the one who pays you your recompense
    as you dealt out to us.
    9 Happy the one who will seize and dash your infants against the rock!

    So inspiring and heartfelt. A really effective proof of the existence of god, wouldn’t you say?

    I mean, hate that deep, and given to us in ‘his’ word like that, must be even more a proof of the potential existence of god than even the existence of love, if I follow you correctly. But that is, of course, a paradox, in that it is almost impossible for me to follow you at all.

    Yabba, the psalms are basically a form of poetry contributed to by many (a lot are attributed to David). Just for you is a link for your education; https://www.quora.com/What-does-the-Psalm-137-9-verse-mean-in-the-Bible-that-says-%E2%80%9Chappy-is-the-one-who-seizes-your-infants-and-dashes-them-against-the-rocks%E2%80%9D

  22. P1, I doubt you were programming earlier than I. I gained early entry to USyd, and was programming in Fortran IVD on an IBM1460 in 1962. I built a simulation of West Wallsend coal washery for BHP in 1962.

    I built my first LP, of a chlorine/hydrocarbon chemical plant, in 1969, running on the IBM360 bureau in Houston. Next one was a quarrying/concrete operation in 1972, on the Control Data bureau in Miller St, North Sydney. That one is still being used, and ‘serviced’ by me, only running on a laptop, as are most of the following.

    In the intervening years I have buit Ops Research models for many oil refiners, coal miners, margarine producers, flour millers, industrial minerals companies, milk products outfits, bread & etc. bakers, bottle blowers, stock feeders, and so on. I have built big models for little companies like Boeing, one of Australia’s largest private health organisations, and several power companies. I have built simulated annealing models for Aus Post, and several schools and universities for timetabling.

    Just now I have another milk company, and the ‘parcels’ mob on the go. It pays to keep the mind active.

    I doubt that you are younger than I am. I am told that twats age well, but you are the expert.

    cheers,

    Bye for now – little bit of debugging to do getting the important output transferred from monstrous SQL partitioned tables into bloody Excel multidimensional arrays in their preferred format.

  23. nath says:
    Saturday, October 20, 2018 at 3:31 pm
    What if a woman’s husband died and she remarries. Decades later all 3 end up in heaven. Which marriage is sacred in god’s law now?

    It’s interesting Nath, but a similar question to this (the woman had been married 7 times) was asked of Jesus in Luke 20:27-36. In nutshell, Jesus response was that in the life to come there will be no marriage as we know it.

  24. I feel Yabba’s taken leave of his senses, evidenced by:

    [‘Just now I have another milk company, and the ‘parcels’ mob on the go. It pays to keep the mind active.’]

    Dear Yabba, help’s at hand.

  25. Sprocket”This is the Wentworth version of the ‘democracy sausage’..”

    Nope .. Looks like Saturday at the Bondi Markets that just happen to be at Bondi Primary school

  26. Aunt Mavis @ #1990 Saturday, October 20th, 2018 – 4:37 pm

    I feel Yabba’s taken leave of his senses, evidenced by:

    [‘Just now I have another milk company, and the ‘parcels’ mob on the go. It pays to keep the mind active.’]

    Dear Yabba, help’s at hand.

    wot? Explain that to P1, and perhaps he can translate for me. I’ll be back atound 9.30

    Have you read any Gerald Murnane? I recommend ‘The Plains’. Its just like PB.

  27. I have really enjoyed the opportunity to engage in some in depth theological and philosophical debate over the last few days and am happy to respond to questions directed to me.

    But I just want to make it clear, I do not believe I have all the answers and my responses emanate out of my own experience and understanding and thus they are what I believe. But I respect the right of others of different faiths, no faith, or even those who share the same faith to come up with their own answers.

    Further, my responses are not designed to “convert” anyone. My biggest bug bare is with regards to hypocrisy. I will not hesitate to call out what I see as hypocrisy, especially when it is displayed by those who profess the Christian faith. People are entitled to their own beliefs, but when they behave in a manner which is contrary to those beliefs or they exhibit double standards (as in the case of banning students for being LGBTG, but not dealing with other more serious issues such as dishonesty and bullying) I will challenge them in no uncertain terms.

    Respectfully,
    Ronzy

  28. Really? Then all I can say is that your great age doesn’t seem to have taught you very much. Certainly neither manners nor humility.
    _________________________
    Manners and humility are for people who run guest houses. Yabba is making sure the country is running properly and I for one apologize if I have ever offended him. His computer skills scare me and I wish him all the best.

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